SHOWCASE FOR GEOTHERMAL IN KENYA

Transcription

1 REPUBLIC OF KENYA THE NATIONAL TREASURY SHOWCASE FOR GEOTHERMAL IN KENYA International Geothermal Showcase September 29, 2014, Washington, DC PRESENTED BY: ENG. STANLEY K. KAMAU DIRECTOR, PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP UNIT, NATIONAL TREASURY, KENYA

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3 150 million people, among the fasted growing regions in the world (5.3% growth GDP compared to 3.8% world growth) 150 million addition (DRC, Ethiopia, Southern Sudan, Somalia) KENYA Area: 583,000 sq. km GDP: USD 44.1 Billion (2013) Population: Million (2013) GDP per Capita: USD (2013) GDP: USD 52.8 B(Revised by 20% Sept 2014) GDP Per Capita: USD 1,190 (Revised by 20% Sept 2014) GDP % Growth: 4.7% (2013), focus by WB and IMF of 6% in medium term Debt/GDP: 51.7% (2013) The Standard and Poor s rating for Kenya is B+ stable Fitch rating is B+ positive. Gateway to: East Africa Community (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi):

4 1 MAJOR INVESTMENTS REQUIRED IN KEY INFRASTRUCTURE Category Type Water Sewerage Systems Irrigation & Drainage Dams & Water Storage Supply & Sanitation Key Infrastructure Required Transport Energy Roads Pipelines Railway Harbours & Airports Power Generation Power Transmission Power Distribution Oil & Gas Systems Energy is the engine of the economy Communication Mobile Telephony Fibre Networks Satellite Telecommunications Source: TMO

5 Infrastructure Funding Gap of USD 2-3 Billion per Year.

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7 7 Enabling Framework for PPPs/IPPs in Kenya: Kenya has a New Constitution (2010) that provide democratic and governance institutions (stability, judiciary, etc.) PPP Policy issued by Government in December, 2011 The Public Private Partnerships Act, 2013 (PPP Act) Risk mitigation (Letters of Support, Guarantees (Demand/Traffic Guarantee), subsidies etc; Compensation for termination/ extra-ordinary events/ direct impact of change of Laws/political event Direct Agreement and step-in rights to Lenders; Establishment of a Project Facilitation Fund (Viability Gap Fund, PDF, subsidies) PPP Regulations finalized PPP Unit at National Treasury to oversee the PPP process

8 Selection of a Private Party and Key Principles PPP Projects can be initiated in two ways: Solicited bids; and Privately initiated investment proposals. The 3 Core Principles in PPP Procurement: Value for Money Affordability; and Risk Transfer (optimal allocation).

9 ERC Ministry of Energy & Petroleum KNEB Energy Tribunal KenGen GDC IPP GDC/KenGen/ IPP Early Generation Policy & Dispute Resolution Generation: Hydro Thermal Geothermal Wind Co-generation KPLC KETRACO Transmission >66kV REA KPLC Private Discos Distribution Consumers Industrial Commercial Domestic

10 3 NATIONAL CAPACITY EXPANSION PLAN 2010 to 2030 National Capacity Expansion (17,764MW) Investment Estimates (US$) Planned for ,200 1, ,764 4,200 ADEQUACY AFFORDABILITY DIVERSIFICATION 4,679 4,200 ESTIMATED INVESTMENTS US$ 38billion by 2030 Geothermal Coal Nuclear Imports (Hydro) Wind Medium Speed Diesel Hydro Gas Total Turbine Capacity Source: Update of Kenya s Least Cost Power Development Plan

11 TARGETED GENERATION CAPACITY (5,000MW) TIME IN MONTHS HYDRO THERMAL GEOTHERMAL WIND COAL LNG CO-GENERATION RETIREMENTS CUMMULATIVE TOTAL Generation Tariff (US$cts/kWh) Industrial/Commercial tariff (US$cts/kWh) Domestic Tariff Progression (US$cts/kWh)

12 Geothermal in Kenya (10,000MW) Suswa, Longonot, Olkaria, Eburru, Menengai, Arus-Bogoria, Lake Baringo, Korosi, Paka, Lake Magadi, Badlands, Silali, Emuruangogolak, Namarunu Barrier Mwananyamala Homa Hills Nyambene Chyulu Hills 12

13 STATUS OF GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT 45MWe Olkaria I Power station PLANT OLKARIA I (3 UNITS X 15 MW) 45 MW OLKARIA II (3 UNITS X 35 MW) 105 MW OLKARIA III (ORMAT) 110 MW OSERIAN (TWO UNITS) 4 MW EBURRU 2.5 MW OLKARIA (WELLHEAD) 30MW Olkari Olkaria1 Unit MW 105 MWe Olkaria II Power station 100 MWe Olkaria III Power station 13

14 14 History of PPP Transactions Westmount 46 MW (not active), Iberafrica 1997 (56MW and 53 thermal), 74 MW Tsavo/Kipevu, 2000, Orpower -Olkaria III 2000/2008 (48MW Geothermal Plant plus 52MW in 2013), Mumias (34MW); 90 MW Rabai 2009, Mumias 26MW cogeneration. IPP Name Type Capacity MW Remarks Thika Power Thermal 87 commissioning Triumph Thermal 82 Financial Close Gulf Power Thermal 80 Commissioning Orpower Geothermal 52 commissioned Lake Turkana Wind 300 Financial Cose Longonot Geothermal 140 Under negotiations Kinangop Wind 60 FC Dec 2012 Kipeto Wind 100 FC GDC (3 IPP) Geothermal 105 PRG negotiations Small Hydros Hydro 20 PPA TOTAL 1026

15 Independent Power Project (IPP) Structure

16 THANK YOU! YOU ARE INVITED TO INVEST IN kenya. IT IS THE PLACE TO BE!! 16