Developing an Integrated Energy Model for the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP)

Transcription

1 Developing an Integrated Energy Model for the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP) Jarrad Wright PrEng MSc Energy Exemplar (Africa) (Pty) Ltd

2 Outline Introduction The Energy Model Case Studies: EAPP transmission interconnection Maintenance optimisation Integrated gas-electric assessment: Tanzania case Future Work Conclusions

3 Introduction EAPP established in 2005 by Inter Governmental MoU (seven members) supplemented by three more member countries between Entity Abbreviation Country Régie de Production des Eaux et de l'electricité REGIDESO Burundi Société Nationale d Electricité SNEL DR Congo Egyptian Electricity Holding Company EEHC Egypt Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation EEPCo Ethiopia Kenya Electricity Generation Company KenGen Kenya The Kenya Electricity Transmission Company Ketraco Kenya Kenya Power and Lighting Company KPLC Kenya General Electricity Company of Libya GECOL Libya Electricity Water and Sanitation Agency EWSA Rwanda National Electricity Corporation NEC Sudan Tanzania Electric Supply Company Ltd. TANESCO Tanzania Société International d'electricité des Pays des Grands Lacs SINELAC DR Congo Rwanda Burundi Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited UETCL Uganda

4 Introduction Eastern Africa endowed with significant energy resources Hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, gas and coal Significant economic benefits. EAPP established in 2005 by Inter Governmental MoU (seven members) supplemented by three more member countries between Interconnecting all EAPP member nations with sufficient generation, transmission and/or gas infrastructure is key to drive economic growth Complex decisions to be made in prevailing energy market of each nation as well as regional EAPP trading opportunities

5 The Energy Model An energy model for the EAPP developed in a commercial software tool PLEXOS Based on: Public domain information Generally accepted industry practice Used for a number of case studies to demonstrate the power and value provided

6 The Energy Model Model includes: 260 generators Range of fuels Emission intensities per fuel type (CO 2 for now) Historical and forecasted demand/energy profiles at hourly resolution ( ) Existing/committed and planed inter-country transmission interconnectors

7 The Energy Model Country Supply: Hydro Installed capacity (MW) Thermal Renewables (excl. hydro) Total Share of generation Burundi % Djibouti % DRC (Eastern) % Egypt % Ethiopia % Kenya % Libya % Rwanda % Sudan % Tanzania % Uganda % TOTAL % TOTAL (Excl. Egypt) % %

8 The Energy Model Country Demand: Demand (2010) Demand (2038) Average annual growth rate expected Maximum Demand (MW) Energy (GWh) Share of energy (%) Maximum Demand (MW) Energy (GWh) Share of energy (%) Maximum Demand (MW) Energy (GWh) Burundi % % 2.7% 2.7% Djibouti % % 10.0% 9.4% DRC (Eastern) % % 4.5% 4.6% Egypt % % 4.4% 4.7% Ethiopia % % 8.7% 8.7% Kenya % % 8.0% 8.0% Libya % % 5.4% 5.5% Rwanda % % 9.2% 8.9% Sudan % % 9.8% 9.8% Tanzania % % 6.7% 6.6% Uganda % % 4.5% 4.4% TOTAL % % 5.5% 5.5% TOTAL (Excl. Egypt) % % 7.1% 7.0%

9 The Energy Model Existing Planned

10 Case Studies Transmission interconnection No interconnections Existing interconnections Planned interconnections Load GWh Generation GWh Losses GWh Energy imbalance GWh Relative average wholesale cost # 100% 82% 51%

11 Case Studies Maintenance Optimisation

12 Case Studies Integrated gas-electric assessment: Tanzania

13 Future Work The energy model will be built further, focusing on: Gas systems (topology, fields, pipelines, storages, demands etc) Hydro systems (storages, waterways, spillways, natural inflows etc) Model validation and benchmarking (as data is made available) Long term energy planning model

14 Conclusions An energy model for EAPP is in development and currently includes: Hourly level demand and energy forecasts ( ) Existing grid connected generators Fuels Emissions Existing/planned inter-country interconnectors Used for three case studies: Benefits of interconnection between EAPP nations Performance of optimal maintenance scheduling An example of integrated gas-electric modelling in Tanzania Use of an energy model of this nature empowers decision makers in utilities, regulatory bodies, government agencies as well as private industry to make informed, risk adjusted decisions on critical infrastructure requirements

15 Thank you for your time Jarrad Wright PrEng MSc Senior Consultant Energy Exemplar (Africa) (Pty) Ltd W: M: Follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook and Twitter