Community Resilience: Adapting to Sea Level Rise

Transcription

1 Community Resilience: Adapting to Sea Level Rise June 12, 2012 Philip J. Prete, R.E.P. Senior Environmental Planner City of Wilmington

2 Outline A little about SLR Vulnerability and Risk The intersection of Science and Policy Adaptation planning Resiliency Pilot Project

3 Sea Level- Past, Present, and Future

4 Sea Level- Past, Present, and Future

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8 Sea Level- Past, Present, and Future

9 Sorting it out sea level rise panels in Rhode Island and Miami-Dade County have concluded that a minimum of a threeto five-foot sea level rise should be anticipated by 2100.

10 NC Science Panel Graphic depiction of the N.C. Science Panel s three sea-level rise scenarios presented in their Metrics Report released January 2010

11 NC Science Panel Graphic depiction of the N.C. Science Panel s three sea-level rise scenarios presented in their Metrics Report released January 2010

12 NC Science Panel Graphic depiction of the N.C. Science Panel s three sea-level rise scenarios presented in their Metrics Report released January 2010

13 The art of policy making SCIENCE Politics Economics POLICY

14 NC House Bill 819

15 Sea Level Rise Policy Drivers what is potentially at risk from sealevel rise, what adaptation actions are available in response to sea-level rise, and which decisions may change the path forward 15

16 land area coastal counties 17% non-coastal counties 83%

17 population non-coastal counties 47% coastal counties 53%

18 Coastal Population Growth Within 10 years, that population is expected to grow by 12 million people or by 3,600 people per day reaching a total population of 165 million by 2015

19 What is the threat? Vulnerability of the North Carolina Coast determined by the USGS Coastal Vulnerability Index Source: Thieler, E.R., and Hammar-Klose, E.S., 1999.

20 Areas of Impact What is at stake? Human Life and Property Natural Resources Aquifers Infrastructure Coastal Economy and Tourism Public Access

21 Adaptation defined The ability of a system to modify or change its characteristics or behavior so as to better cope with existing or anticipated external threats or perturbations. Reducing vulnerability Increasing resiliency Avoidance

22 Adaptation Planning When is the best time to Act? Proactive vs. Reactive 22

23 Reactive adaptation Short term planning More often response to crisis Policymakers tackle problems as or after they occur.

24 Proactive Adaptation Attempt to prevent problems from ever occurring, Uses long-term, comprehensive planning strategies.

25 Obstacles to proactive adaptation Uncertainty in predicted risks Lack of direction, guidance and resources Institutional inertia

26 The Dilemma Sea level is rising, but the rate is difficult to predict let alone determining its impact on a parcel-byparcel level, which is what local governments and property owners care about at the end of the day. In other words, there is clamor to do something about sea-level rise but, no one can tell us exactly what.

27 Whose Job is it? Local governments must be proactive in their planning in order to better cope with the various threats to the coastal economy and community well-being. State and Federal Leadership and Guidance is essential

28 FEMA-EPA Memorandum of Agreement Incorporate sustainability into hazard mitigation planning and long term disaster recovery and hazards resilience into smart growth

29 FEMA-EPA Memorandum of Agreement Four goals: 1. Enhanced agency coordination EPA Smart Growth Program FEMA Long-term Disaster Recovery Program FEMA Mitigation Planning Program 2. Smart growth assistance 3. Community resilience & climate change adaptation 4. Cross training & joint training

30 Coastal Community Resilience Pilot Projects: Purpose Help communities use the best available data to determine how climate change might impact local land use and infrastructure investments Develop strategies that reduce vulnerability to known hazards, build long-term community resilience, & provide economic, environmental, & social benefits.

31 Coastal Community Resilience Pilot Projects Solicited proposals & selected 2 communities New Bern Wilmington Map source:

32 Wilmington Pilot: Partners City of Wilmington New Hanover County Cape Fear Public Utility Authority

33 PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVE: Use the project as a pilot Assess potential risks to water and wastewater infrastructure Identify land use and infrastructure expansion strategies for reducing exposure Integrate strategies into existing and anticipated plans and policies

34 Existing Plans 2010 New Hanover County Multijurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan CFPUA Integrated Water Resource Master Plan 2006 Wilmington New Hanover County Joint Coastal Area Management (CAMA) Plan

35 2010 County population: 202,667 Largest NC coastal municipality Hazard mitigation plan recognizes sea level rise as high-risk hazard facing region Wilmington Photo Credit: City of Wilmington

36 2025

37 2050

38 2075

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40 irisk

41 Sea Level Rise Impact Study (SLRIS) Scope

42 CFPUA Assets Approximately 800 miles of sewer line Approximately 1100 miles of potable water line 141 pump stations Approximately 28 miles of raw water line 3 wastewater treatment facilities million gallon per day drinking water facility 6 million gallon per day nanofiltration plant 54 well sites

43 System Vulnerability Manhole elevations Pipes Increased corrosivity Increased I/I Undermined by erosion Floating?

44 System Vulnerability Pump Stations Plants Aquifer Salt Water Intrusion Well field Nanofiltration plant efficiency Private wells

45 Vulnerability Assessment Screen system susceptibility to SLR / extreme storm events. Identify system components most likely at risk and consequences of that risk. Determine damage thresholds for different types of assets. Prioritize the risks most critical to sustainable operation Capture the information for quantification of risk and vulnerability.

46 Taking irisk into new Territory Shadow methodology project future build-out scenarios for assessment of risk/loss is there a utility analog? Do we factor business interruptions into this? Damage methodology What are typical costs per unit? What is damage threshold?

47 Data Scenario Analysis Risk Assessment Capability Assessment Adaptation Strategies

48 Strategy Evaluation How effective are they at addressing threats? Do they meet multiple objectives? Is there potential to mitigate multiple risks? Do they integrate with existing plans and regulations? Are there additional no regret benefits?

49 Next Steps Contractor selected in May Kick-off meeting last week Complete Project by March 2013 Identify opportunities to leverage partner resources EPA Brownfields Inventory and Assessment HUD Sustainable Communities Planning Grant

50 Questions? Photo Credit: City of Wilmington