The wind power world market last year reached

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1 Statistics: the world market is on the move Worldwide around 30 manufacturers are trying to profit from the boom in wind power. Only 13 of these managed to secure a significant market share last year, though. The wind power world market last year reached a volume of approx. 20,000 MW. Nobody knows the exact figure, as the four most important sources give differing results. Depending on who carried out the count, total power lay between 19,696 and 20,070 MW (see table 1). At least the four results lie fairly close together. The differences become bigger when one looks at the individual countries, and the disagreement is particularly noticeable for the two large markets in Spain and India. The Danish consultancy BTM Consult, which probably has the most experience in the field of wind market statistics, calculated a total power for Spain of only 3,100 MW. The other three sources announced much higher results. The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) obtained a figure of 3,522 MW, that s almost 14 % more than determined by BTM Consult. In India the market situation is also somewhat confused. The World Wind Energy Association (WWEA) and the magazine Windpower Monthly (WPM) get to nearly 1,600 MW, while the GWEC announced over 1,700 MW. For this reason the country rankings are also not completely clear this time. Has India overtaken Germany for the first time or not? Three of the four sources put Germany ahead, as can be seen in table 1. Similar uncertainty affects the positioning of Spain and China. Two sources see Spain in front, the other two China. The five largest markets are developing differently The ranking for one year is not as important as the longterm development, however. The ranking is basically not much more than a snapshot. The more important question is whether a good result as represented in the rankings will be a lasting one. In the USA everything depends on the destiny of the Production Tax Credit (PTC), which runs out at the end of this year. The PTC, at 2 US$ct/kWh, may seem like just a»blob of cream«on top of the basic tariff, but without the PTC most of the projects in the USA are not economic. The basic tariff lies between 2 and 9 US$ct/kWh and must be negotiated with the individual electricity suppliers. Unfortunately, in all these years the U.S. government has not once decided to set the tax credit for a longer period. Every time the end of the PTC nears, hopes and fears start up afresh. Things aren t going to be much different this time either. However, the tariffs are meanwhile supported by the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), which is already in effect in 22 of the 50 states and which stipulates how large the minimum share of renewable energy must be. Most manufacturers are evidently optimistic that the boom in the USA will continue, and are building one factory after another. Acciona has recently started manufacturing complete nacelles in West Branch (Iowa). Rotor blades are being manufactured by LM Glasfiber in Little Rock (Arkansas), by Siemens in Fort Madison (Iowa) and by Vestas in Windsor (Colorado). Steel tube towers are manufactured by Trinity in Clinton (Illinois) and by Hendricks in Keokuk (Iowa). All of these sites have come into being in the last few months or are still undergoing construction. The forecast by the Danish market observer fits well with this spirit of optimism. BTM Consult, along with most manufacturers, also expects further growth in the USA. This year it is expected to be 6,500 MW and by 2012 the volume may even rise to 10,500 MW. 186 Sun & Wind Energy 3/2008

2 WWEA GWEC BTM WPM USA 5,216 5,244 5,244 5,356 Spain 3,515 3,522 3,100 3,444 China 3,313 3,449 3,287 3,450 Germany 1,625 1,667 1,667 1,667 India 1,580 1,730 1,617 1,574 France Italy UK Portugal Canada Others 1,730 1,720 2,138 1,503 Total 19,696 20,070 19,791 19,727 In Spain the prospects for steady growth are not so good, according to BTM Consult. It is particularly unclear whether the political support will last and whether grid expansion can keep up with the wind power boom. The industrial base is firm. The three most important home manufacturers (Gamesa, Acciona and Ecotècnia) are among the 13 biggest wind power companies in the world. BTM Consult expects that in the years 2008 to 2012 a total of 11,500 MW will be installed, which is an average of 2,300 MW per year. This would bring a growth in the total amount of installed power to 26,000 MW by Even today wind power covers approx % of Spain s electricity demand. China is in a league of its own. The market certainly won t be able to once again double or treble in size as in the past, but in the next few years, China can be expected to outperform all other markets (except the USA) and will be the most important market in 2012 alongside the USA. BTM Consult estimates that the market volume will grow from a predicted 5,500 MW this year to 9,000 MW in Chinese industry is in the process of emancipating itself from its European teachers in order to go its own way (see page 192). This too is a good condition for strong further growth. The forecasts for Germany are considerably worse. Of course this is linked to a degree of saturation. In Germany there are still more turbines than in any other country. The current»wind power world champion«has reached an installation density of 62 MW per 1,000 km 2. Only Denmark (73 MW) has a higher density and the market there came to a standstill some time ago (although not just because of saturation). Spain has now only reached 30 MW per 1,000 km 2, Portugal 23 MW and France 5 MW. There is thus much more space there than in Germany. Additionally, the government is implementing the successful feed-in act with a typical German thoroughness. For this reason no changes are being made to the annual degression anchored into the act, which was included to force price reductions and to limit taking excess advantage of the subsidy. The tariff is thus sinking unrelentingly year after year, even though rising steel and copper prices, as well as wind turbine demand in other markets (USA, Spain, China), is driving sales prices up and up. As a result, fewer and fewer new wind power projects are economically viable. The amount of power installed last year shrank to 1,667 MW and it looks as though the annual market volume in the coming two years will level out at 1,500 MW at best. BTM Consult also comes to a similar conclusion. Due to the offshore projects, which will hopefully be implemented from 2009 onwards, things could look up again for 2010 and beyond, though. How things will progress in India is somewhat tough to calculate. The market is not growing as expected. The government has not set any clear targets to support wind power use. The only driving force for market development is the writing off of taxes against investments, and this is only beneficial to wind farm operators and not the manufacturers, says Windpower Monthly, quoting somebody from the industry. The rising prices of steel and copper are creating problems for the manufacturers and they aren t able to sell wind turbines cheaply enough for demand to increase. Practically the only companies who are able to cope with the difficult situation are those which manufacture in the country themselves (Suzlon, Enercon and Vestas RRB). The only company that was able to export successfully to India last year was Vestas (now separated from Vestas RRB). Gamesa s market share is tiny and all the other companies made no sales at all in India last year. The three largest markets (USA, Spain and China) last year made up 60 % of the market volume. A more even spread would put the worldwide growth on a broader footing. Some countries are developing pleasingly well, especially France, Italy, Portugal and Canada. Great Britain (UK), Ireland and the Netherlands are behind expectations, however. Australia and Japan are in a similar position. Table 1: The ten most important markets in The world market is being watched by many experts, but there is no consistent picture. The surveys arrive at significantly differing figures. WWEA = World Wind Energy Association GWEC = Global Wind Energy Council BTM = BTM Consult (Denmark) WPM = Windpower Monthly (Denmark/ USA) There are many attractive sites in Wales. The photo shows the Ffynnon Oer Wind farm. Photos (3): Jan Oelker Sun & Wind Energy 3/

3 Table 2: Manufacturers market shares in individual countries. The 13 most successful manufacturers in 2007 covered approx. 96 % of the total world market. The sum (second column from the right) shows how much each manufacturer could show they had installed in the ten countries. Under»world total«are the manufacturers own figures for worldwide sales (see text box). BTM = BTM Consult DEWI = Deutsches Windenergie-Institut (German Wind Energy Institute) WPM = Windpower Monthly USA Spain China Germany India France Italy UK Portugal Canada Total World total Vestas 1, ,276 4,503 GE Energy 2, ,567 3,283 Gamesa 414 1, ,959 3,047 Enercon ,042 2,769 Suzlon ,666 2,082 Siemens ,076 1,397 Acciona Goldwind Nordex Sinovel Repower Ecotècnia Mitsubishi Others Total 5,244 3,444 3,287 1,667 1, ,025 22,207 Source BTM WPM BTM DEWI BTM BTM WPM WPM BTM WPM... BTM Explanatory notes on table 2: The sum of the ten largest markets shown in the table is 18,025 MW. This is 1,755 MW short of the total world market volume as determined by BTM Consult. This volume is split up amongst those 30 countries not included in the table. The range for the small markets in 2007 lies between Sweden with 217 MW and Russia with 1 MW. The column on the far right shows the amounts which the manufacturers have sold worldwide according to their own figures. This total (22,207 MW) is around 10 % higher than the volume calculated by the four market observers (WWEA, GWEC, BTM, WPM). This discrepancy has existed for years. It stems primarily from the time gap between when a manufacturer announces the sale and the subsequent installation (including grid connection). If the installation carries over into the following year there is a chance that wind turbines may be counted twice. It has not so far been possible to eradicate this error in the market studies. Goldwind has already installed numerous transmissionless wind turbines in China. The Doune wind farm is one of the largest in Scotland. 188 Sun & Wind Energy 3/2008

4 Only a few manufacturers have a global presence In order to succeed on the global market a manufacturer must be present in as many countries as possible. As table 2 shows, only a few manage this. BTM Consult defines market presence in terms of the annually installed power. An exporting wind power company is secure in a market when it regularly sells over 50 MW a year there. On this basis only Vestas and Enercon are present in more than ten countries. Gamesa has a firm footing in five markets, GE Energy and Siemens in four. This is certainly too few for those companies which aspire to having a global presence, and they will thus put in considerable effort in the coming years to become established in further markets. Chinese companies are now at a stage where Spanish ones were a few years ago. They don t export a single wind turbine as they are fully tied up with serving their own strongly growing market. But what is true for Gamesa, Acciona and Ecotècnia, will soon also be the case for Goldwind and Sinovel. As soon as production has reached a certain level, the manufacturers will put out their feelers abroad and crank up exports. Goldwind manufactured 830 MW last year and is expected to break through the 1 GW mark this year. This could be a sufficient size for exporting. With its investment in Vensys, the Chinese company has already got its foot in the door and is certain to erect the first wind farm in Europe soon. Maybe the Chinese will even be faster than the Indians. Although Suzlon is profiting from its takeover of the German manufacturer Repower and the export successes it boasts, the marketing of Suzlon turbines in Europe is in its early stages. Suzlon has now had a first larger success in Portugal, though. Nordex and Repower are successful in numerous countries with the tag»made in Germany«. The installed power is still too low to count according to market presence criteria as defined by BTM Consult, though. The 2.5 MW turbine, however, which Nordex erected in the USA last year, is intended as a market opener. Production in the USA is to follow and having a market presence will then soon be within reach. Y Further information: BTM Consult: DEWI: GWEC: WPM: WWEA: Detlef Koenemann Sun & Wind Energy 3/

5 France USA Total: 5,244 MW Repower 1.7 % Acciona 2.9 % Mitsubishi 6.1 % France Total: 888 MW Ecotècnoia 1.0 % Siemens 2.6 % Gamesa 7.9 % Gamesa 15.9 % Nordex 22.1 % Suzlon 8.1 % Siemens 13.1 % GE Energy 40.0 % Vestas 16.1 % Enercon 20.9 % Vestas 20.6 % Repower 20.7 % Spain Total: 3,444 MW Enercon 1.9 % GE Energy 3.1 % Navantia-Siemens 4.2 % Ecotècnia 4.3 % France Italy Total: 603 MW Repower 2.0 % Nordex 3.5 % Ecotècnia 2.8 % GE Energy 6.2 % Acciona 19.3 % Gamesa 47.4 % Enercon 15.5 % Vestas 46.4 % Gamesa 23.6 % Canada China Total: 3,287 MW GE Energy 26,0 % Enercon 43.8 % Nordex 1.5 % CASC-Acciona 1.6 % Suzlon 6.3 Nordex % 1.5 % CASC-Acciona 1.6 % Suzlon 6.3 % GE Energy 6.5 % Vestas 19.7 % China Others 10.4 % Others 10.4 % USA Goldwind 25.3 % Gamesa 1.3 % GE Energy 2.0 % Enercon 6,5 % UK Total: 455 MW Repower 9.5 % UK Gamesa 1.3 % GE Energy 2.0 % Enercon 6,5 % Siemens 36.0 % Vestas 30.2 % Vestas 11.2 % GE Energy 6.5 % Sinovel Goldwind 20.4 % 25.3 % Nordex 20.0 % Repower 9.5 % Siemens 36.0 % Vestas 11.2 % Gamesa 17.0 % Sinovel 20.4 % Nordex 20.0 % Vestas 24.8 % Spain Enercon 1.9 % GE Energy 3.1 % avantia-siemens 4.2 % Ecotècnia 4.3 % Germany Total: 1,667 MW Nordex 4.8 % Gamesa 17.0 % Others 3.7 % Gamesa 2.6 % Siemens 3.5 % Others 3.7 % Gamesa 2.6 % Nordex Siemens 4.8 % 3.5 % Germany Portugal Total: 434 MW Vestas 24.8 % Portugal Repower 2.0 % Repower 2.0 % Gamesa 2.7 % Gamesa 2.7 % Vestas 2.7 % Vestas 2.7 % Ecotècnia 4.9 % Ecotècnia 4.9 % Nordex 5.4 % Nordex 5.4 % Acciona 19.3 % Vestas 19.7 % Gamesa 47.4 % Repower 10.9 % Repower 10.9 % Vestas 24.1 % Enercon 50.3 % Enercon 50.3 % Suzlon 16.4 % Suzlon 16.4 % Enercon 65.9 % Enercon 65.9 % Vestas 24.1 % USA Repower 1.7 % Acciona 2.9 % Mitsubishi 6.1 % India Total: 1,617 MW Others 8.0 % Gamesa 0.4 % India Canada Total: 386 MW Canada CASC amesa 7.9 % Vestas 8.8 % GE Energy 26,0 % Su Suzlon 8.1 % GE Energy 40.0 % Market shares of the most important manufacturers in the Siemens 13.1 % ten biggest markets Vestas 20.6 % Source: BTM, WPM Enercon 23.1 % Suzlon 59.6 % I Vestas 30.2 % Enercon 43.8 % France 190 Sun & Wind Energy 3/2008 Ecotècnoia 1.0 % Italy Repower 2.0 % Nordex 3.5 % Spain Enercon 1.9 % GE Energy 3.1 %

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