Coal in the low carbon scenario

Transcription

1 Coal in the low carbon scenario Kejun JIANG Energy Research Institute, China 1 ERI, China

2 Mt-C CO2 Emission in China Baseline Policy ELC 2

3 Products output in major sectors, Low Carbon and ELC Unit Steel Million ton Cement Million ton Glass Million cases Copper Million ton Ammonia Million ton Ethylene Million ton Soda Ash Million ton Casutic Million ton Paper Million ton FertilizerMillion ton Aluminum Million ton Paper Million ton Calcium camillion ton

4 Unit energy use for key products, LCS Scenario Unit Steel Kgce/t Cement Kgce/t Glass Kgce/Weight Cases Brick Kgce/ 万块 Ammonia Kgce/t Ethylene Kgce/t Soda Ash Kgce/t Casutic Kgce/t Calcium carbide Kgce/t Copper Kgce/t Aluminum kwh/t Paper Kgce/t Electricity fossil fuel Gce/kWh

5 Technology learning curve Index, 25= Year Hydrate Biomass-Ethanol IGCC IGCC-Fuel Cell Hydrogen Vehicle Poly-Generation Solar Thermal Power PV 4th Generation Nuclear Off Shore Wind On Shore Wind Biomass Power Advanced NGCC 5

6 Primary Energy Demand, Enhanced Low Carbon Scenario Mtce 年份 Bio-Diesel Ethonal Biomass Power Solar Wind Nuclear Hydro N.Gas Oil 6

7 Installed Power Capacity, 1MW 发电装机容量, 低碳情景 3 万千瓦 Biomass Solar Wind Nuclear Hydro N.Gas Oil 年份 Coal 7

8 1MW Power Capacity by technologies in China, low energy scenario Year Hydro Nuclear Wind off shore Wind on shore Biomass IGCC Biomass Direct Solar Thermal Solar PV Oil NGCC N.Gas PFBC IGCC-Fuel Cell IGCC-68% IGCC-2% US-Critical Super Critical Large Coal Unit Samll Coal 8

9 CCS future 12 % IGCC-Fuel Cell IGCC US-Critical Super Critical Large Coal Unit Samll Coal Year 9

10 CCS CCS is crucial for China for deep cut on CO2 By 25, there I still more than 2billion ton coal use in China CCS is long-term technology, for negative emission Cost: electricity price increase yuan/kwh,by 23 average electricity price increase.3yuan/kwh,.15yuan/kwh by 25. Investment for CCS:3yuan-56yuan/kW IGCC+CCS efficiency loss could go down to 6% IGCC efficiency:48% for Greengen in 211,55% by 55% to 58%

11 Case study for a 9MW IGCC unit with CCS Investment cost for IGCC: 22 75yuan/kW, 23 65yuan/kW CCS: 22 45yuan/kW, 23 32yuan/kW Capture rate: 22 8%, 23 9% Transport distance: 8km Transport cost: 22 2yuan/t-CO2, 23 1yua/t-CO2 Cost for storage: 22 15yuan/t-Co2, 23 7yuan/t-CO2 Interest rate: 8% Increased cost: 22.28yuan/kWh, 23:.19yuan/kWh 11 11

12 Investment in Energy Industry in China Energy Expenditures in China 1^8Yuan BaU HLC HELC LLC 1^8Yuan BaU HLC HELC Year Year Addtional Investment in end use sectors in ELC GDP Loss, % 1^8 Yuan % 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.% 65ppm 55ppm 45ppm Per Capita Carbon Intensity Industry Transport Building Total Year.% -1.%

13 Fixed Unit Ivestment yuan/kw International IGCC International IGCC-Fuel Cell China IGCC China SC China USC 13

14 3 SO2 Emission MtSO BaU LC ELC

15 Black Carbon Emission in China 1ton BaU LowCarbon

16 Mt NOx Emission in China, ELC scenario Other 6. Power generation

17 6. PM2.5 Emission Mton Other Power generation 17

18 6. Mercury Emission ton Other Power generation 18

19 Computed annual mean PM2.5 concentrations in China for the baseline projection in 23; left panel: including natural sources and soil dust, right panel: from anthropogenic sources only (used for health impact calculation) 19

20 A Snapshot of Selected China Energy Options Today: Climate and Energy Security Impacts and Tradeoffs in 225 Bubble size corresponds to incremental energy provided or avoided in 225. The reference point is the business as usual mix in 225. The horizontal axis includes sustainability as well as traditional aspects of sufficiency, reliability, and affordability. The vertical axis illustrates lifecycle greenhouse gas intensity. Bubble placements are based on quantitative analysis and ERI expert judgment. Power Sector (this size corresponds to 4 billion kwh) by comparing low energy scenario and BaU Power Sector (this size corresponds to 4 billion kwh) by comparing low energy scenario and policy BaU Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 2 thousand barrels of oil per day) by comparing low energy scenario and BaU Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 2 thousand barrels of oil per day) by comparing policy BaU scenario and BaU Positive Climate Characteristics Nuclear Nuclear Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Clean Coal Imports (IGCC) with CO 2 Capture Ultra-Super Critical Industry Efficiency Solar PV Hydro Wind Biodiesel CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery Building Efficiency Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standard Biomass Power Cellulosic Ethanol Plug-In Hybrids Reduce Energy Security Corn Ethanol Business As Usual In 225 Oil Imports Increase Energy Security For specific details on the assumptions underlying the options on this chart, go to Revised 7/1/28 Gas-to-Liquids Expanded Domestic Oil Production Coal-to-Liquids (with carbon capture) Coal-to-Liquids (no carbon capture) Negative Climate Characteristics 2

21 28 key technologies in the enhanced low carbon scenario in China No. Sector Technology Description Note 1 Industry High energy High efficiency furnace, Nearly in technology efficiency kiln, waste heat recovery market equipment system, high efficiency process technologies, advanced electric motor 2 New manufacture process technology for cement and steel 3 CCS In cement, steel making, refinery, ethylene manufacture 4 Transport Super high efficiency Advanced diesel hybrid diesel vehicle engine 5 Electric car 6 Fuel cell car 7 High efficiency 3% higher energy aircraft efficiency 8 Bio-fuel aircraft 9 Building Super high efficiency With COP>7 air-conditioner 1 LED lighting 11 In house renewable Solar PV/Wind/Solar hot energy system water and space heating 12 Heat pumps Mature 13 High isolation Mature building 14 High efficiency Mature electric appliance before Power IGCC/Poly- With efficiency above 55% generation Generation 16 IGCC/Fuel cell With efficiency above 6% 17 On shore Wind Mature 18 Off shore wind Mature before Solar PV 2 Solar Thermal 21 4 th Generation Nuclear 22 Advanced NGCC With efficiency above 65% 23 Biomass IGCC 24 CCS in power generation 25 Alternative fuels Second generation bio-ethanol 26 Bio-diesel Vehicles, ships, vessels 27 Grid Smart grid 28 Circulating Recycle, reuse, tecnologies reducing material use 21

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