Erik Franklin Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology University of Hawaii

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1 Erik Franklin Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology University of Hawaii Pacific Islands Climate Science Center 2015 Climate Science Symposium East West Center, Keoni Auditorium, Hawaii Imin Conference Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii February 26, 2015

2 Global Evaluating Scenarios of Complex Interactions on Hawaiian Reefs under Climate Change Warming ph Waves Rainfall Local / Regional Human Population Terrestrial Impacts Fishing

3 Why are we doing this work? Forecast coral declines: (Hoeke et al.) Secondary effects on community components Spatial refugia? Incorporate source sink dynamics Broader set of tools to evaluate scenarios (ecological processes, connectivity, etc.)

4 Hawaii Coral Reef Ecological Scenario Tool (HI CORSET) Developed for coral reef systems applications in Meso American Barrier Reef and Philippines (Melbourne Thomas 2010) Model system that integrates Local scale ecological model with functional groups Connectivity via larval transport Human impacts and disturbances on local/regional processes Set of differential equations solved at weekly time steps Geographically realistic, spatially implicit Pros: fast, simulations run in under an hour with stochastic resampling, intuitive elements Cons: uncoupled model components, mixed mechanistic and statistical elements

5 HI CORSET study domain 66 reef areas in MHI at 4 km resolution Will also evaluate at 1km and 2km for scale effects by resampling Reef area includes Functional group values Marine managed areas Community marine areas Adjacent terrestrial managed areas

6 Integrated Coral Reef Community Dynamics Model System (HI CORSET) Schematic showing the components of CORSET (from Melbourne- Thomas et al. 2010). Melbourne Thomas (2010)

7 HI CORSET: Local Scale Ecological Model Benthos macroturf spawning corals grazed EAC macroalgae brooding corals Consumers herbivores large piscivores small piscivores urchins Melbourne Thomas (2010)

8 HI CORSET: Connectivity via Larval Transport larval transport for corals, fish and urchins Benthos macroturf spawning corals grazed EAC macroalgae brooding corals Consumers herbivores large piscivores small piscivores urchins Melbourne Thomas (2010)

9 storms HI CORSET: Local and Global Impacts and Disturbances (Forcing Functions) fishing coastal development Benthos macroturf spawning corals grazed EAC macroalgae brooding corals Consumers herbivores large piscivores small piscivores urchins Melbourne Thomas (2010)

10 US Geological Survey Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center Model future waves around islands and onto corals reefs. Main grid (3 km cells) with buoys used for calibration and validation Related source: Storlazzi at al. (2015) Future Wave and Wind Projections for U.S. and U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands. U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report , 426 p., Resulting Projected nearshorecascade wave dataof grids to management scale (50 m cells)

11 Disturbance from Seawater Thermal Anomalies (Coral bleaching mortality) Time period for Freq. of occurrence of DHW > 8 (RCP 4.5) Study domain Source: Van Hooidonk et al. (2013) GCB

12 Disturbance from Ocean Acidification (Diminished calcification rate) Reduced calcification from 2005 to year of DHW > 8 (RCP 8.5) Study domain Source: Van Hooidonk et al. (2013) GCB

13 Rainfall & Terrestrial Run off (sediment, nutrient, pollution) Regression equations for wet, dry regions peak discharges with 10 year recurrence intervals Use Timm s statistical rainfall % +/ to update discharge through 2100

14 Coral Reef Ecological Dynamics Functional Group Cover and Biomass Franklin et al MEPS

15 Coral Reef Ecological Dynamics Larval Connectivity Connectivity model components Relative adult density Reproductive output Larval release timing Pre competency Larval settlement behaviour Maximum dispersal duration Depth zone Pre settlement larval mortality Post settlement survivorship MITgcm 4km May 2009 release Kaneohe, Kona 0 10m depth

16 Coral Reef Ecological Dynamics Larval Connectivity Example: Pathways of coral larval connectivity between reefs of the MHI (line thickness is stronger connection

17 Summary HI CORSET integrates local and global forcing functions (waves, sea temp, OA, run off) to evaluate coral reef ecosystems dynamics under two RCPs (4.5, 8.5) from 2020 to 2100 Project still underway, moving towards all elements being ready to run full ecological community simulations NEXT STEPS Wave modeling (being completed as I speak) Connectivity modeling (April 2015 for full sensitivity model output evaluation) Nearshore run off (collaborative work with USGS Hawaii?) Ecological dynamics scenarios (begin May 2015) Calibration with contemporary ( ) state variables Simulation with future scenarios ( ) FUTURE If model actually provide useful insights, could compare output with higher resolution future projections are results consistent? Do we observe emergent behavior? Data collected over the next decade to calibrate/validate/test model output

18 Outreach and Climate Communication Tools Hanauma Bay Talk to Public Presentations at HCC, HI Climate Symp Habitat Modeling under Future Climates Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM) at USGS NC CSC (Fort Collins) Lab attended Habitat Modeling Workshop (Sept 2014) SAHM / VisTrails Working on Batch model processing Expanding to continuous variable model structures

19 Acknowledgements Collaborators: Edwin Elias (Deltares USA), Curt Storlazzi, Li Erikson (USGS) wave modeling Eric Treml (Univ. Melbourne) larval connectivity Frank Mancini, Zack Oyafuso, Maia Kapur, Morgan Winston, Rob Toonen (UH, HIMB) ecological dynamics, nearshore runoff Data/Software Providers: Jessica Melbourne Thomas (Univ. Tasmania) CORSET source code Oliver Timm (Univ. Albany) and colleagues rainfall projects Jeff Maynard (Cornell Univ.) thermal anomaly, acidification Delwyn Oki (USGS) flood frequency data/files NOAA land use, DEM, OpenNSPECT USGS hydrology USDA soils Funding USGS Pacific Islands Climate Science Center NOAA Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center

20 Mahalo! Questions? Contact: MITgcm 4km May 2009 release Kaneohe, Kona 0 10m depth