Canada s Energy Future 2017: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040 Mike Johnson Technical Leader, Energy Supply Team

Transcription

1 Canada s Energy Future 2017: Energy Supply and Demand Prjectins t 2040 Mike Jhnsn Technical Leader, Energy Supply Team Slar Canada December 4, 2017

2 Natinal Energy Bard and Energy Futures The NEB s Energy Futures (EF) reprts prvide lng-term energy supply and demand prjectins fr Canada Typically include a baseline Reference Case and sme scenaris/sensitivities cvering key uncertainties Recent EF reprts have included scenaris n high/lw il and gas prices, pipeline exprt capacity, and LNG exprt vlumes EF 2017 fcuses n lnger term climate plicy develpments and technlgical trends 1

3 Sme highlights frm the 1967 reprt Energy Supply and Demand Frecast: Themes f energy, envirnment and technlgy run thrughut Talk f EVs, fuel cells, and the future f il sands Underestimates cal prductin, verestimates nuclear generatin Canadian Pwer Generatin 1965 and

4 EF 2017 Scenaris Reference Case Currently Annunced Plicies Cnsensus view prices, ecn grwth Carbn price flat (nminal) pst 2022 Higher Carbn Price Case Increasing carbn price pst 2022 Assumes this is driven by greater glbal climate actin Lwer crude il price Technlgy Case Explres technlgy uncertainty Higher Carbn Price + greater adptin f select technlgies Lwest crude il price 3

5 Carbn Price and Technlgy Case Assumptins Carbn Prices Chart shws minimum federal flr in nminal and CN2016$, sme prvinces are currently higher. Technlgy Case Includes: Higher lng term carbn pricing cnsistent with the Higher Carbn Price Case Lw slar/wind pwer csts Imprved renewable integratin Faster uptake f EVs in passenger transprt Greater adptin f steamslvents in il sands Greater electrificatin f space/water heating in buildings Increased use f CCS in calfired generatin 4

6 Capital csts fr utility-scale slar were assumed t cntinue declining ver the lng term Greater decline in the Technlgy Case than in the High- Carbn and Reference Cases fr slar Surce: NREL, EIA 5

7 Als assumptins abut demand-fcused technlgy in the Technlgy Case Better technlgy means mre penetratin f EVs int markets Thus, mre electricity demand Mre heat pumps fr residential and cmmercial heating and cling EV Share f new passenger-vehicle purchases 6

8 Key Finding 1: The Energy Futures 2017 Reference Case is the first baseline prjectin in recent Energy Futures reprts where Canadian fssil fuel cnsumptin peaks within the prjectin perid. Canadian Fssil Fuel Use Prjectins, Recent Energy Futures Reprts, Reference Case Prjected Peak is

9 Key Finding 2: Canadian fssil fuel cnsumptin in the Higher Carbn Price Case is 8% lwer than in the Reference Case, and 13% lwer in the Technlgy Case by Fssil Fuel Use, All Cases 8

10 Key Finding 3: Renewable capacity grws quickly, with wind dubling and slar mre than tripling by 2040 in the Reference Case. Slar and Wind Capacity, Reference and Technlgy Cases Technlgy Case assumes lwer wind and slar csts, imprved variable renewable integratin. 9

11 Key Finding 4: Despite different energy utcmes, ecnmic grwth is similar in all three scenaris in Energy Futures Per cent change in Varius Indicatrs cmpared t the Reference Case by 2040, Higher Carbn Price and Technlgy Cases 10

12 Key Finding 5: Future plicies and technlgy trends, bth dmestically and glbally, will shape Canada s sustainable energy future. Ttal Energy Use, All Cases The cases d nt represent a ceiling n Canada s ptential fr GHG emissin reductins, but illustrate the impact climate plicy and technlgy can have n Canada s energy system. 11

13 Aggregate Impact n Electric Demand f Technlgy Case Assumptins Electric demand increase EVs Switching t heat pumps in prvinces nt dminated by electric heating systems Electric demand decrease Switching t heat pumps in prvinces dminated by electric heating systems Overall: demand increases 12

14 Electricity develpments play big rle in bending fssil fuel demand 13

15 Cal-fired pwer generatin desn t have much f a future in Canada Based n existing plicy, we ll see little cntributin frm it beynd 2030 Cal-fired generating capacity by prvince, Reference Case 14

16 Generating Capacity by Fuel, 2015 and 2040, All Cases By 2040, ttal capacity in the Technlgy Case is 8.5% higher than the HCP Case, and 41% higher than 2015 levels In the Technlgy Case, wind and slar make up 27% f Canada s capacity mix in 2040, cmpared t 19% in the Reference and HCP cases, and 9% in

17 Generatin is different than capacity, hwever Much lwer capital csts fr slar in the Technlgy Case lead t much higher generatin Over 40 TW.h in 2040 Largely cmes at expense f cal and natural gas Generatin by select fuels, 2015 and

18 Keep in mind that the NEB has underestimated slar capacity in its past prjectins Prjectins fr these require a lt f plicy assumptins, and we didn t have much guidance in the past Prjected, cumulative slar capacity Prir EF versins Mre guidance nw, but hw plicy will unfld t incrprate mre renewables int the mix is still unknwn and there are many pathways 17

19 Energy Futures mre than just a reprt, but a significant data surce as well Third editin f Energy Futures released as visualizatins Includes a brand new visualizatin t explre changes in energy mix All data available in appendices 18

20 FYI, the NEB has ther prjects in the wrks t Renewables reprt (versin 3) Canadian slar-pwer supply csts 19

21 Cnclusins Higher carbn prices will mve the needle n Canadian fssil-fuel demand, but imprving slar and wind technlgy will help mve it even mre We ll see mre penetratin f slar int Canadian energy markets, especially if csts keep falling like they have been Cntacts: Mike.Jhnsn@neb-ne.gc.ca Matthew.Hansen@neb-ne.gc.ca 20

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