National Water Census Apalachicola Chattahoochee Flint River Basin Focus Area Study

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1 National Water Census Apalachicola Chattahoochee Flint River Basin Focus Area Study Jacob LaFontaine, Hydrologist USGS South Atlantic Water Science Center October 24, 2014

2 The USGS National Water Census To place technical information and tools in the hands of stakeholders, allowing them to answer questions they face about water availability: Does the Nation have enough freshwater to meet both human and ecological needs? Will this water be present to meet future needs? SECURE Water Act Public Law , 9507 and 9508

3 Water Availability Analysis The process of determining the quantity and timingcharacteristics of water, which is of sufficient quality, to meet both human and ecological needs. Types of Information Technical Socio economic Legal Regulatory Political

4 Account for water with a budget Precipitation + Flow in = Evapotranspiration + Storage Change + Flow out

5 A Nationwide System to deliver water accounting information Precipitation Runoff Baseflow ET Recharge Surface Storage

6 Focused Water Availability Assessments Water Quality Groundwater Resources Water Use Surface Water Trends, Precipitation, etc Eco Flows Global Change State, Local, Regional Stakeholder Involvement Defined Technical Questions to be Answered

7 Why do Focus Area Studies? Provide technical support for areas of the country with conflict over limited availability of water. Develop tools and techniques for addressing questions of water availability.

8 Focus Area Studies within Water Resource Regions Water Use ET and Snowpack Dynamics GW Contrib to Baseflow Water Use Watershed Model Ecological Flows Delaware Colorado Apalachicola Chattahoochee Flint Water Use GW/SW Model Ecological Flows

9 ACF Focus Area Project Team Brian Hughes Amy Gill Rich Marella Steve Lawrence John Jones Jason Bellino Lynn Torak Jacob LaFontaine Elliott Jones Mary Freeman Steve Walsh Howard Jelks Project Chief Alabama Water Use Florida Water Use Georgia Water Use Remote Sensing Ag Water Use Demand Based Ag Water Use Metered Ag Water Use Surface Water Model Ground Water Model Ecohydrology Ecohydrology Ecohydrology

10 ACF Study Components Water use data compilation Agricultural water use estimation Groundwater and surface water modeling Ecological data collection and modeling

11 Data Flow Industrial and Municipal Water Use Data Agricultural Water Use Data Flow Models: Surface Water PRMS Meter Data Demand Based Remotely Sensed MODFLOW Groundwater Streamflow Conditions Ecological Data Ecological Models Fish and mussel distributions for altered flow conditions

12 Timelines Water use compilation Model development Simulations for ecological flows Analysis and reports Water use data compilation Streamflow and groundwater simulation Ecological data collection Analysis & reports

13 Non agriculture Water Use SWUDS Water accounting database Identifies conveyances, from withdrawal to return Site specific information Monthly for

14 Non agriculture Water Use Data sources State agencies Survey of municipal water systems Other sources Planning documents, US Census

15 Non agriculture Water Use Number of intakes, outfalls, GW, and facilities in the ACF Basin Category Facilities Intakes Outfalls GW Public Supply Commercial Industrial Mining Thermoelectric Hydroelectric Golf course irrigation Municipal Wastewater

16 Agriculture Water Use Data availability varies spatially and temporally Collection and reporting requirements vary How to best synthesize existing data into a consistent product in reported and non reported areas

17 Agriculture Water Use Methods Crop Demand Geostatistics Remote Sensing

18 Crop Demand method Effective precipitation using PRISM climate data and soils information Crop ET using FAO Penman Monteith method Crop Land from National Cropland Data Layer (NCDL) NIR P ET A (1) NIR P e e crop crop is net irrigation requirement [L3/T], is effective precipitation [L/T], ET crop is evapotranspiration for a given crop [L/T], and A crop is the area over which the crop is being grown [L2].

19 Geostatistics method Water use data correlated based on distance and difference between values Uses telemetered network of monthly values (~100) to disaggregate annually reported meter values (~4,000) Provides estimates at unmetered locations as well

20 Geostatistics method Crop Land is a Georgia specific coverage (not NCDL) Overlay crop land polygons on irrigation depth map to get usage

21 Remote Sensing method Analyzes Landsat satellite images for variations of temperature/moisture/greenness Identifies if areas are artificially wet compared to surroundings and climate data Can this be used as a surrogate to derive irrigated crop lands by month?

22 Synthesis of methods Compare methods Crop Demand with NCDL Geostatistics with GA crop lands Crop Demand with Remote Sensing crop lands Geostatistics with Remote Sensing crop lands Provide best estimates to modeling team

23 Groundwater modeling MODFLOW Upper Floridan Aquifer in Dougherty Plain portion of the ACF Transient simulation for meter cell size

24 Groundwater modeling Refinements Many more streams than past models Recharge from watershed model Improved representation of pumping data

25 Surface Water Modeling Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) Deterministic Daily time step Physical Process Based

26 Surface Water Modeling Coarse resolution model 6 fine resolution models PRMS only Upper Chattahoochee River Chestatee River Potato Creek PRMS and MODFLOW Chipola River Ichawaynochaway Creek Spring Creek

27 Link PRMS to MODFLOW Not GSFLOW due to available time and resources Loose coupling (PRMS) Surface runoff and interflow simulated by PRMS PRMS Surface runoff Interflow Recharge to groundwater system Recharge to MODFLOW simulated by PRMS

28 Link PRMS to MODFLOW Loose coupling (MODFLOW) MODFLOW uses PRMS generated recharge Recharge from PRMS Simulates groundwater component of streamflow Input to MODFLOW Groundwater flow to streams

29 Link PRMS to MODFLOW Loose coupling (Routing) Post process streamflow using flow components from each model Surface runoff and interflow from PRMS Groundwater flow from MODFLOW Surface runoff + Interflow + Groundwater flow to streams + In stream water use Post process routing Streamflow

30 Hydrologic data collection July 2011 Synoptic 178 groundwater levels in the Upper Floridan aquifer 111 streamflow measurements

31 Ecological data collection and Better understand effects of streamflow variation on fishes and mussels modeling Develop information useful for making decisions about watershed and streamflow management, when species conservation is an objective A. Fritts

32 Overarching concept Changes in streamflow regimes influence ecological function, including persistence of stream dependent species Quantifying flow ecology relationships can help managers and stakeholders identify ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA) ELOHA process Develop hydrologic models: flows under alternatives relative to baseline Use best-available data: ecological responses to hydrologic alteration Implement iteratively: monitor & improve models Poff and 18 others, 2010, Freshwater Biology 55:

33 Fish sampling: Replicate block-netted reaches 37 streams, 6 sub-basins 2 samples/year

34 Persistence: High, but evidence of decline at lower streamflow Mean estimated persistence, 95% credible intervals

35 Colonization: Low, but evidence of increase at higher streamflow Mean estimated colonization, 95% credible intervals

36 Colonization: Low, but evidence of increase at higher streamflow but much lower in small headwater streams N = 17 streams DA < 55 km 2, Dlink < 10 Mean estimated colonization, 95% credible intervals

37 Ecological data collection and modeling Incorporate stream specific seasonal flow estimates (PRMS) Develop models for all fishes Evaluate effects of stream attributes, species traits on persistence, colonization, vulnerability Evaluate relative effects of high, median and low flows Update and extend existing metapopulation model for supporting watershed scale management Extend sampling through fall 2014 (at least)

38 Focus Area Study Contributions Developing better water use data for ACF that can be linked to flow models Focus on smaller streams; less on reservoir management Linked groundwater and surface water models Ecological flows are an integral part of study Ability to forecast flows and ecological responses for future conditions

39 Products Compiled water use for Calibrated groundwater and surface water flow models Models for ecological responses to altered flow conditions Reports on water use and modeling efforts Results will be available through National Portal

40 water.usgs.gov/watercensus/