Integrated Global GHG Information System (IG3IS): Evidence Based Policy Support and Evaluation

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1 Integrated Global GHG Information System (IG3IS): Evidence Based Policy Support and Evaluation Oksana Tarasova WMO GAW Phil DeCola Sigma Space Corporation University of Maryland and the IG3IS Planning Team

2 Other IG 3 IS Planning Team Members John Burrows, Jane Burston, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Pep Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Sander Houweling, Alistair Manning, Peter Rayner, Steve Wofsy, Christoph Gerbig Beverly Law, Kevin Gurney, David Schimel, Jae Edmonds, John Miller, Riley Duren Prabir Patra, Shuangxi Fang, Luciana Gatti, Toshinobu Machida, Ed Dlugokencky Deon E. Terblanche, James Whetstone, Jack A. Kaye, Hratch Semerjian, and more

3 Integrated, Global, Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG 3 IS) As the negative impacts of rising global temperatures become increasingly evident, nations, states, cities and private enterprises are accelerating efforts to reduce the atmospheric abundance of the greenhouse gases. Emission reduction efforts require evidence based information to succeed. o You cannot manage what you cannot measure. At the 17 th WMO Congress in June, 191 NMHSs passed a resolution requesting a plan for an IG 3 IS. What GHG information we are seeking to produce and for whom? Do we have the needed skill given the right combination of measurements, models, and bottom up activity data? What is the value proposition? Success in building an IG 3 IS will require: Partnerships and collaborations Filling gaps for ground based, airborne, and space based observations, improvements in transport and carbon cycle modeling, temporally and spatially explicit bottom up inventories (human dimensions), information about sources and sinks of greenhouse gases at management and policy relevant temporal and spatial scales.

4 UNFCCC Process and GHG Monitoring: Evolve from Top Down to Bottom Up Then (2010) Now (2015) Binding Multi-national Treaty Commitments we will verify your reported emissions Intended Nationally Determined Contributions we will help you improve your data A grand, top-down GHG Information System Federation of focused monitoring systems GHGIS > $5 Billion delivered 2025 IG 3 IS < $1B delivered ~2018 Advocates: Science Community!!! Advocates: WMO (191 countries), States (eg, CA), Cities (eg, C40), NGOs, Industry (eg, Oil Companies)

5 WMO Role in GHG Information and IG 3 IS: Methods and standards for GHG Observations The Role of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Ensure high quality, consistent, continuous GHG and other observations of atmospheric composition Develop high quality atmospheric transport and data inversion models Coordinate global atmospheric measurements; improve models and analysis Leverage capabilities across programs and nations Build capacity in developing nations

6 NWP system architecture provides an ideal model for future carbon weather forecasts Today s NWP system incorporates multiple coordinated satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary orbit (GEO), aircraft, balloon, and ground observing systems in a true system of systems. A similar approach could be developed for CO 2 and CH 4 emissions monitoring, perhaps even leveraging the existing operational meteorological infrastructure.

7 IG 3 IS and 4 Pillars for COP-21

8 Objective 1: trend monitoring Impact of 3 year emission inventory reporting latency Addition of atmospheric observations decrease reporting latency To support the Paris Agreement s goal/actions for global stocktaking by enhancing the Global Carbon Project methodology through increasing use of atmospheric composition data.

9 Objective 2 : Atmospheric Concentrations reduce uncertainties: 3 countries already provide atmospheric measurementinversion-based independent evaluation of their National Inventory Report (NIR) for the UNFCCC submission (UK have done this for more than 10 years). DECC (UK government) control the contracts for both the inventory and the inverse modeling. Allows them to make the best of the information. Inverse modeling results allows DECC to focus their inventory improvement plan and resources on the greatest uncertainties (mismatches). Currently inverse results not used directly there is no mechanism within the UNFCCC to allow this. Uncertainties need robust quantification. Inverse results are not sector specific.

10 UK DECC Measurement Network CO 2 & CH 4 All Kyoto gases CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, SF 6 All Kyoto gases (except NF 3 )

11 UK Met Office Modeling and Analysis Mace Head air history maps are generated for each 2-hour period between 1989 and 2015 Use the NAME transport model driven by 3-D meteorology to understand the recent (3-4 weeks) history of the air arriving at measurement stations Two stage process: Estimate long-term Northern Hemisphere baseline concentrations using Mace Head observations. Estimate regional emissions through inversion modeling (InTEM).

12 HFC-134a Significant mismatch throughout the entire time-series of emissions, approximately inversion is 50% lower than inventory. Investigated the refrigeration model used by inventory compilers, key variables to be reconsidered by DECC: Refill rate Uptake rate 7 6 Emissions (kt) Mace Head - error bars represent the 5th and 95th percentiles DECC - error bars represent the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles UK GHGI

13 Objective 4: IG 3 IS and sub-national action The Lima-Paris action plan has a focus on sub-national entities. IG 3 IS should work with partners to establish best practices for GHG trend determination for large urban and regional sources, and work with partners to build the needed infrastructure and propagate these methods and standards. Attribution of GHG emissions to their specific urban and regional sectorial origins should be applied to mitigation guidance where skill exists and otherwise developed. Other IG 3 IS support for sub-national actions include working with partners to establish methods, standards, and infrastructure for locating point-source methane super-emitters in the oil and gas sector supply chain, thereby providing operational mitigation guidance, and improved certainty and transparency for emissions reporting

14 Relevance: cities matter > 70% of global fossil-fuel CO 2 (about half of that from megacities) 14 Source: Cities and Climate Change: an urgent agenda, World Bank, 2010

15 Megacity Project: Paris and Los Angeles Carbon emissions from cities and their support systems represent the single largest human contribution to climate change. The Megacity Project provides a strategy, methodology and roadmap for an international framework to assess directly the carbon emission trends of the world s megacities.

16 GOSAT Observations Demonstrate Space-based Detection of Megacity XCO Selecting observations over LA & Background Location Selected GOSAT footprint locations over LA nightlights a.u XCO2 (ppm) Basin-Desert (ppm) Basin Desert 10-day averages Days since 1/1/09 Persistent, robust enhancement = 3.2 ± 1.5 ppm Kort et al., GRL (2012) 16

17 Tiered observational system example: Methane super emissions from Oil and Gas

18 Space-based GHG Detection Capabilities to Date SCIAMACHY AIRS GOSAT OCO Sensor IFOVs

19 IG 3 IS interim objectives and principles 1. Align IG 3 IS (requirements, architecture, scope) with specific problems that have been acknowledged by key stakeholders* Identify opportunities where we have scientific credibility, use case, value proposition Begin with the end in mind - the what? and the why?, then worry about the how? 2. Avoid grand research strategy but rather build confidence by succeeding soon and affordably 3. IG 3 IS partner countries, states, cities, institutions, and private companies will adopt and apply a common, traceable set of measurement and methods for producing, validating and communicating evidence-based GHG information 4. IG 3 IS objectives now and in the future will need data from a tiered system of observations with a variety of spatial and temporal characteristics 5. Address data needs for stakeholders in developing regions not just for data rich entities through capacity building 6. Situational awareness (low latency observations) and short-term projections will become increasingly important given climate change & policy dynamics 7. Don t assume stakeholders can immediately tell us want they want or that the landscape is static - requires persistent dialogue *key stakeholder is motivated, entrained with long attention span and ability to respond to the value proposition

20 The How???? There are several space-borne measurement techniques for observing atmospheric CO 2, CH 4 and CO concentrations that are likely to be available to us during the next decade. The synergies should be sought on the addressing climate (greenhouse gases) and air quality system to optimize the cost - benefits The relative strengths and weaknesses of these techniques have not yet been thoroughly examined. It is not clear what combination of techniques and platform configurations would yield the best results for a given set of research and resource management questions and resource profile. It is therefore essential to explore the measurement trade space rigorously prior to any detailed discussions about mission specification, including the potential contributions of surface networks and airborne measurements. This task will require further investment in analyses specifically in conducting a wide array of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) and the analyses of observing architectures.

21 Future IG3IS with geostationary GHG sounders and low Earth orbiting mapping systems