Highway Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management
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1 Transportation Research Board ADC 60 Duluth Conference Highway Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management Art Hirsch TerraLogic July 19, 2017
2 FHWA Climate Change & Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Framework (2012)
3
4 Larsen C Ice Shelf Antarctica- One trillion tons
5 Presentation Elements FHWA Climate Change Program Status FHWA-DOTs Pilot Vulnerability Studies FHWA Vulnerability/Risk Model Walk Through
6 FHWA Order 5520 Climate Change and Extreme Weather Resilience Order (December 15, 2014) FHWA policy to integrate consideration of climate and extreme weather risks into its planning, operations, policies and programs Identifying and removing administrative, regulatory, and policy barriers that discourage climate change and extreme weather event preparedness and resiliency Encouraging State departments of transportation (DOT), metropolitan planning organizations (MPO), to develop, prioritize, implement and evaluate risk-based and cost-effective strategies to minimize climate and extreme weather risks
7 The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing noncompetitive.
8 FHWA Climate Change (Resiliency) Program Still has a Pulse 2016 transportation CO2 emissions>electric power plants Resiliency (adaptation) instead of climate change/ghg reduction Resilience- ability to anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to changing conditions and withstand, respond to, and recover rapidly from disruptions. No FHWA Administrator/No new program direction Hold on a car and truck ghg measuring plan (new ghg performance measure) Consolidating Risk Framework Pilot DOT Studies
9 FHWA Climate Resilience Pilot Program FHWA Vulnerability Assessment Model Coastal and Central NJ Oahu MPO San Francisco Virginia Gulf Coast Study (Alabama) State of Washington
10 FHWA Climate Resilience Pilot Program Pilot Teams Arizona CALTRANS Connecticut Iowa Maine Maryland Massachusetts Tennessee Capital Area MPO Michigan Minnesota New York State Oregon South Florida Washington State Alaska/Western Federal Lands Hillsborough MPO North Central Texas MPO
11 FHWA Climate Change (Resiliency) Program Still has a Pulse Updating Risk Framework Model from DOT pilot studies Asset Management Plan Risk Process (Fast Act) Funding new pilot projects for integration Requires planning process to consider strategies to improve resilience Green Infrastructure Program
12 FHWA Green Infrastructure Program Natural-Resiliency design for extreme weather events Dunes Living shorelines Artificial reefs Program Elements (coastal areas) Funding Pilot Studies White Paper Implementation Guide
13 FHWA Climate Change & Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Framework (2012)
14 FHWA Vulnerability Assessment Purpose Guidance to state DOTs Identify key considerations and resources to assess risk Tools to design and implement a risk based climate change plan
15
16 Step 1- A Potential Risk There is a climate change risk
17 Step 2- Identify Scope Location Identify a sensitive corridor Example I-70 Vail to Glenwood
18 I-70 Corridor System Sensitivity Major East West Corridor High volume of tourist and ski traffic Wide range of conditions and eco-zones Variety potential vulnerabilities Harsh winter conditions Community dependency
19 Step 3- Identify Critical Assets Roadway surface Bridges Tunnels Maintenance operations Culverts/drainage systems Emergency response Communication systems
20 Step 4 Identify Climate Change Variables
21 I-70 Project Area Climate Change Model Projections (Stress Elements) Current climate models project that Colorado will warm by 2.5 F by 2025 and 4 F by 2050 Winter mean temperature increases 2º F to 5º F Precipitation in higher altitudes may increased by 5 percent to 20 percent; potential for more intense snow storms; extreme rain storm events Regional Model Uncertainty Colorado Water Conservation Board, 2014
22 Step 5-Assets Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts Qualitative Assessment Highway professionals discussions What keep you up at night Sensitive Areas Quantitative Engineering Assessment Hydrologic modeling GIS analysis Miles of roadway in floodplain Bridges passing year event
23 Step 5-Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts Wildfire traffic disruption/safety Bridge and roadway flooding Right of Way loss of vegetation Roadway rutting Inadequate culvert drainage Community isolation Increased winter maintenance Emergency response
24 Step 6 Risk Assessment of Vulnerabilities Risk Elements Likelihood (weather models/data trends) Uncertainty Rate of climate change Consequence Extent of disruption Severity of disruption Adaptive capacity Replacement cost
25 Step 6 Risk Assessment of Vulnerabilities (Likelihood/Consequence) Wildfire- high/high Bridge flooding- high/high Culvert drainage- high/high Roadway flooding- medium/high Vegetation Loss- high/medium Community isolation- high/medium Increased winter maintenance- medium/medium Emergency communications- medium/medium Roadway rutting- low/low
26
27 Step 7 Adaptation Options Key on high risk elements Alternatives analysis Cost Cost-Benefit Effectiveness Expected Outcomes
28 Step 7 Adaptation Options Harvest dead trees Perform culvert inventory and risk determination Revise emergency plan with local communities Move road away from floodplain Raise bridge structures/widen channels Change vegetation types Do nothing/monitor
29 Step 8 Implementation Plan Focus on priority projects/actions Direct action (immediate replacement) Long term action (corridor improvements) Revisit specifications/design criteria No historical basis for precipitation/drainage Responsibility for action Schedule for action
30 Step 9-Monitoring and Adaptive Management Develop performance metrics Monitor/measure Adaptive management Plan revision and execution Continue to evaluate vulnerability Integrate into decision making process
31 Final Thoughts Encouraging there is a pulse; emphasis on resiliency; none on source reduction Flexible risk based tool; continued enhancement by pilot studies Climate change should be part of the normal DOT decision making Potential grant opportunities to state DOTs Hope for continued source reduction by state DOTs
32 Art Hirsch TerraLogic Visit Us at
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