Measuring Transport CO 2 Emissions in Asia Data and Tools

Transcription

1 Measuring Transport CO 2 Emissions in Asia Data and Tools Sudhir Gota & Alvin Mejia Clean Air Asia Lee Schipper Scholar (2013) Low Emissions Development Strategies and the Transportation Sector 30 September 2013 Manila

2 Data and CO2 Quantifications Needed at Multiple Analysis Scales Project Need to take care to evaluate system-wide impacts, induced demand Plan & City Na1on Optimal scale to consider system impacts for metropolitan plans/programs Often best for evaluating large networks and system policies Source Michael Replogle

3 Data and CO2 Quantifications Needed at Multiple Analysis Scales Project Need to take care to evaluate system-wide impacts, induced demand Plan & City Na1on Optimal scale to consider system impacts for metropolitan plans/programs Often best for evaluating large networks and system policies

4 Measurement approaches Top Down Fuel sales Bo9om- up Data gathered from more detailed sources activity, mode share, fuel intensity etc. 4

5 National level Estimates Top Down Transport Oil Consump1on (Top Down) 40 Vehicles Which Asian country is this? Assuming 2000 as

6 Bottom-up -Limited data is the Biggest Barrier IN D IN O N E P PA K PH I PR C S IN S R I T H A VIE

7 Billion Tons Problem in Transport China (lel axis) India (right axis) India Road Transport CO2 Emissions China Road Transport CO2 Emissions Nearly 30 studies reviewed, 2010 India ( 3X) and China ( 5X). The variation in exceeds 1 billon tons of CO2 which is same as emitted by Asia in 2009/2010

8 Top vs Bottom in India Year No of CO2 Top down es1mates es1mates (MT) CO2 Total Bo9om es1mates (MT) Low High Gasoline es1mates (MT) Low High Majority of variation in total CO2 emissions can be explained by variations in diesel consumption.

9 India Passenger Road Transport Efficiency ICCT RoadMap (2050) RoadMap Tool PKM (Billion) WB Effect (2031) EFFECT TOOL ADB/CAA Forecast (2035) Excel sheets Indian Govt IEA SMP (2050) Excel sheets Includes NMT CO2 g/pkm Use a set of indicators to compare results and evaluate policy measures

10 Data and CO2 Quantifications Needed at Multiple Analysis Scales Project Need to take care to evaluate system-wide impacts, induced demand Plan & City Na1on Optimal scale to consider system impacts for metropolitan plans/programs Often best for evaluating large networks and system policies

11 City level Estimates Source GIZ Quantifying transport emissions in German Cities

12 Passenger + Freight Data from Transport Model Vehicle Registra1on Data ICLEI (2008) (P+F) CAA (2008) (P+F) KSPCB (2008) (P+F) IISC (2008) (P+F) CAA (2008) TERI (2009) SIM- Air(2008) 0.83 Bangalore- MOUD (2008) Passenger Passenger Bangalore CTTS (2007) Bangalore Metro (2007) CO2 (MT) Measuring CO2 Emissions at City level Vehicle Registra1on Data Data, Boundary and Capacity are critical issues. Easy solution is to breakdown the estimates into different indicators

13 Rapid Assessment of City Emissions Ahmedabad Transport CO2: 38%, PM 60% Baseline Colombo Transport CO2: 15%, PM 32% Ho Chi Minh Transport CO2: 33%, PM 30% BAU 2030 Low Emissions 2030

14 Data and CO2 Quantifications Needed at Multiple Analysis Scales Project Need to take care to evaluate system-wide impacts, induced demand Plan & City Na1on Optimal scale to consider system impacts for metropolitan plans/programs Often best for evaluating large networks and system policies Source Michael Replogle

15 Introduction to TEEMP: what and why TEEMP Transport Emissions Evalua1on Model for Projects (can be pronounced as temp or temporary) Excel- based, free- of- charge, transparent spreadsheet models Main objec1ve was to promote co- benefits, promote good design, decouple accuracy with resources spent Not data intensive and capacity to boost analysis fidelity with local data Results of TEEMP evalua1on can help facilitate reasonable direc1on for ac1on and alternate op1ons Used by ADB, GEF, World Bank, CTF, IADB, MOUD etc.

16 Chronology of TEEMP development Technical Support Clean Air Asia, ITDP Technical Support - Clean Air Asia, ITDP and Cambridge Systema1cs 2009 First Genera1on TEEMP Models Financial Support ADB Applica1on - ADB ADB Evalua1on 2010 Report Financial Support UNEP- Second Genera1on TEEMP Models GEF, Climate Works GEF Approved Financial Support ADB, Clean Air Asia and ITDP 2010, 2011 Third Genera1on TEEMP Models Clean Air Asia and ITDP IGES and ITDP Applica1on WB Co- benefits Financial Support Veolia 2012 Environment Ins1tute TEEMP City Integrated City Financial Support 2013 Approach UN- Habitat Clean Air Asia and ITDP TRAM

17 TEEMP Applications

18 Transport project outcomes: More or Less Carbon? CO2/km + LOSERS: - More congestion - More driving Expressways Urban Roads/Interchanges Bikeways, Bikeshare, Walkability TDM Strategies Railways BRT Metro + Rehabilitation of Roads Total Veh-km Rural low speed Roads Bus WINNERS: - Less congestion -Less driving -More Co-benefits - Source : Thanks Lee Schipper

19 Recommendations Credit: Yang JIANG, Daizong LIU, Suping CHEN, Data constraints Co- benefits Transparent Simple Flexibility Value for Money

20 For For mmore ore informacon: informa1on: w ww.cleanairasia.org Clean Air A sia Center center@cleanairasia.org Unit 3505 Robinsons Equitable Tower ADB Avenue, Pasig City Metro Manila 1605 Philippines Clean Air Asia China Office china@cleanairasia.org 901A Reignwood Building, No. 8 YongAnDongLi Jianguomenwai Avenue Beijing China Thanks Lee.. Clean Air Asia India Office india@cleanairasia.org 1st Floor, Building No. 4 Thyagraj Nagar Market, Lodhi Colony New Delhi India Clean Air Asia Country Networks..... China India Indonesia Nepal Pakistan Philippines Sri Lanka Vietnam Clean Air Asia Center Members Shell Asia Clean Fuels Associa1on Corning 240 Clean Air Asia Partnership Members Donors in 2012 to 2013 Asian Development Bank l Ci1es Development Ini1a1ve for Asia l ClimateWorks Founda1on Ci1es l DHL/IKEA/UPS l Energy Founda1on l Fredskorpset Norway l Fu Tak Iam Founda1on l Environment ministries and government German Interna1onal Coopera1on (GIZ) l Ins1tute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) l Ins1tute for Transport Policy Studies l Ins1tute for Transporta1on and Development agencies Development agencies and founda1ons Policy l Interna1onal Union for Conserva1on of Nature l L'Agence Française de Développement (AFD) l MAHA l Pilipinas Shell l Rockefeller Brothers Fund l Shak1 Non- government organiza1ons Founda1on l Shell Founda1on l United Na1ons Environment Program Partnership for Clean Academic and research ins1tu1ons Private sector companies and associa1ons Fuels and Vehicles (UNEP PCFV) l USAID CEnergy l Veolia l World Bank 20