Employment Effects related to the Ports of Bremen in 2015

Transcription

1 Employment Effects related to the Ports of Bremen in 2015 Summary Bremen, May 2017 Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics

2 On behalf of: bremenports GmbH & Co. KG Contract No.: 2504 Prepared by: Dipl. Oec. J. Andreas Hübscher Prof. Dr. Burkhard Lemper Prof. Dr. Klaus Harald Holocher Prof. Dr. Peter Wengelowski Institut für Seeverkehrswirtschaft und Logistik Universitätsallee Bremen Deutschland Tel.: +49/4 21/ Fax: +49/4 21/

3 Table of Contents Table of Contents Page Table of Contents I List of Figures II 0 Abstract 1 1 Summary Background and Scope Results 3 Employment Effects related to the Ports of Bremen in 2015 I

4 List of Figures List of Figures Fig. 1-1 Handling volumes of seaports in Northwest Germany (Mil. t) 3 Fig. 1-2 Port-dependent/related employment in the city state of Bremen in 2010/ Fig. 1-3 Port-dependent employees Bremen ports / Port of Hamburg (2015) 6 Fig. 1-4 Direct and indirect employees in comparison (port-dependent employees in 2015) 7 Fig. 1-5 Employment intensity of cargo structure in Fig. 1-6 Port-dependency in Northwest German Federal States in Fig. 1-7 Employment dependent on Northwest German Seaports in Fig. 1-8 Lower Saxony depency on Bremen ports in 9 Fig. 1-9 Dependency of employment in Northwest Germany related to the ports of Bremen in Fig Port-dependent employment quota in Northwest Germany in Employment Effects related to the Ports of Bremen in 2015 II

5 Abstract 0 Abstract Seaports are of great structural and economic importance for the city-state of Bremen, also because of the sectors "logistics" and "maritime economy", which are closely connected with the ports. In order to establish appropriate political priorities, in particular to safeguard public investment needs in maritime infrastructure, reliable information on the regional economic impacts of ports is therefore of great interest. Against this background, bremenports GmbH & Co. KG has commissioned the Institute for Shipping and Logistics ISL 2016 to investigate the employment effects of the ports of Bremen and thus to carry out an update of an investigation prepared in After the base year 2010 of the preceding study, the present study refers to the year The core statements of the expert report are: One-fifth of employment and a quarter of turnover and value added in the state of Bremen are dependent on the port. While almost one-fifth of the working population in Bremen (18.4%) depend on ports, in Hamburg only every ninths job (11.5%) and only one in eighteen jobs in the Lower Saxony port regions (5.6 %) is port related. The logistics and the maritime economy of the state of Bremen show a high port dependency. In the city state of Bremen, in 2015 around 77,250 people were employed directly and indirectly depending on the ports. Just the industry directly involved in the seaports (port industry, shipping, hinterland transport, service providers) economic production employed around 33,050 persons. The importing and exporting enterprises of the producing industry as well as the wholesale and foreign trade who use the port and are dependent on maritime transport also include about 26,300 port-dependent employees. Ten direct port-dependent jobs account for additional three indirectly in the sectors benefiting from the inter-linking input and consumption effects of the portdependent economy (17,900). Bremen s ports are growing at an above-average rate and are second-placed behind Hamburg. While the Bremen s and Bremerhaven s port turnover rose by 35.4% between 2005 and 2015, and the losses suffered during the crisis year in 2009 were significantly overcompensated, the increase in cargo volume in the port of Hamburg was considerably lower, with a total of 9.5% and the Lower Saxony ports lost even more than 21% of their turnover volume during the same period. Almost one-third of the total shipping volume of the North-West German Sea ports in 2015 (261.4 million tonnes) was attributable to the ports of Bremen (28.1%), half to the port of Hamburg (52.7%) and one-fifth to Lower Saxony Ports (19.2%). The development of the market and the changes in harbour policy suggest a general view of the German North Sea ports. The regional economic importance of the seaports in northwest Germany is greater than the sum of impacts of the individual ports. In total, port dependency in the countries of Bremen, Hamburg and Lower Saxony amounts to 288,450 jobs. One of ten port-dependent workplaces in northwest Employment Effects related to the Ports of Bremen in

6 Abstract Germany (27,450) is not located in the respective port city or state, but falls outside the respective neighbouring federal states. About 83,350 jobs in northwest Germany depend directly and indirectly on the Bremen ports, 10,550 in Lower Saxony and 4,050 in Hamburg Employment Effects related to the Ports of Bremen in

7 1 Summary 1.1 Background and Scope Seaports and the logistics and maritime industries, which are closely linked to the ports, have a structural significance in the coastal countries. In order to establish political priorities, in particular to safeguard public investment requirements in maritime infrastructure, reliable information on the regional economic effects and impacts of ports is therefore of great interest. Against this background, bremenports GmbH & Co. KG has commissioned the Institute for Shipping and Logistics ISL to examine the employment effects of the Bremen ports in Although the system and methodology used in the original study of 2011 was used, no complete revision and especially new data collection was made. On the contrary, the objective was an extrapolation on the basis of a partial sampling and the use of official statistics. 1.2 Results o Development of handling volumes in ports of Bremen positive In 2015 the Bremen ports consolidated their second-place position behind Hamburg (137.8 million tonnes) with a handling volume of 73.4 million tonnes. Fig. 1-1 Handling volumes of seaports in Northwest Germany (Mil. t) Bremen Ports Port of Hamburg Lower Saxony ports , own representation, based on data from Hafenspiegel 2015; Schnellstatistik Dec. 2016; HPA; Of the total turnover of the seaports in northwest Germany in 2015 (263.1 million tonnes), more than half fell to the port of Hamburg (52.4%), more than a quarter to Bremen (28.1%) and one-fifth to the Port of Hamburg Lower Saxony ports (19.2%). Employment Effects related to the Ports of Bremen in

8 During the period 2010/15 analysed, Bremen's ports achieved a 6.5% increase in handling volumes from 68.9 million tonnes in 2010 to 73.4 million tonnes in The port of Hamburg also recorded an increase of 13.7% during the same period from million tonnes in 2010 to million tonnes in At the same time, the volume in the Lower Saxony ports also rose by 11.6% from 46.5 million tonnes in 2010 to 51.9 million tonnes Million tonnes in Looking at a longer period over the crisis ( ), the Bremen ports increased by 35.4% in handling volume and Hamburg recorded a growth of 9.5%. On the other hand, the port of Lower Saxony under this longterm perspective of the last ten years between 2005 and 2015 lost more than one-fifth of the volume (-21.6%). The development of Bremen's ports shows a growth of 1.0% for the year 2016 to 74.2 million tonnes. In the port of Hamburg in 2016, an increase in cargo volume was achieved compared to the previous year by 0.3% to million tonnes. In the Lower Saxony ports, on the other hand, turnover fell by -6.4% to 48.6 million tonnes in o Port-dependency more than 18 % In the city state of Bremen, in 2015 more than 77,250 people were employed directly and indirectly depending on the port, an increase of 2.0% for the analysis period 2010/15. This corresponds to 18.4% of the workforce in the state of Bremen in The core sectors representing the seaport function (port business, shipping, hinterland transportation, service providers) alone account for 33,050 port-related employees, 1.7% more than in Fig. 1-2 Port-dependent/related employment in the city state of Bremen in 2010/2015 Sector 2010** ** 2015 Change Employees Share Employees Share 2010/2015 Port-dependent/related employees 75, % 77, % 2.0% Directly port-dependent employed 58, % 59, % 1.8% Seaport Transport Industry % 33, % 1.7% Port Business 13, % 14, % 5.6% Shipping Industry 4, % 4, % -1.2% Hinterland Transportation 12, % 12, % -0.8% Other Services 2, % 2, % -2.0% Port related business 25, % 26, % 1.9% Port dependent Industry 19, % 20, % 3.3% Wholesale/Foreign Trade 6, % 6, % -2.4% Indirectly port-related employed 17, % 17, % 2.9% Input/Supply inter-links 11, % 11, % 3.0% Consumption effects 5, % 5, % 1.7% *) Rounding to 50; **) Revised results for 2010 ; own calculations The importing and exporting enterprises of the producing industry as well as the wholesale and foreign trade companies, which use the port and are related to the maritime Employment Effects related to the Ports of Bremen in

9 transport, also employ about persons as so-called port-related economy. This corresponds to an increase of 1.9% in the analysis period. Ten direct port-dependent jobs (59,350) account for three indirectly port-related employees (17,900) in the sectors benefiting from the input and consumption effects of the port-dependent economy. One-fifth of the employment, a quarter of turnover and value added in the city state of Bremen in 2015 was dependent on the ports, because 18.4% of the workforce earns 26.5% of the total Bremen turnover. Due to the high input rate of port-related industries, this corresponds to 19.8% of the total output (gross value added) generated by the directly port-dependent employees, or 25.1% by direct and indirect port-related employees. o Overvaluation of employment effects avoided The total direct and indirect employment impacts (75,700) will only fall behind the Planco (1998) result (81,870) in 2010, because the present study assesses the port dependency of the importing and exporting industries more cautiously. While Planco (1998) calculated a total of 37,300 industrial jobs in the state of Bremen, of which 16,800 are employed in the automotive industry alone, the ISL quantifies the employment effects of the port-related industry in 2010 to a total of 19,500 jobs. Continuing with this "cautious" assessment, 20,150 port-dependent employees are identified for 2015 in the exporting and importing industry. This corresponds to an increase of 3.3% in the analysis period 2010/2015. o Ports remain job engines despite continuous productivity gains As a result of increasing transhipment shares in containers and automobile handling the development of port-dependent employment has lagged behind the development of total handling volumes. However, the high dynamism of the world trade, shipping and the resulting handling growth of the Bremen ports nevertheless resulted in a considerable increase in port-dependent employment in the seaport transport industry in the state of Bremen. o Study comparisons confirm the results of the recent survey On the basis of a comparison with relevant studies from other ports covering a wide range of methodologies - from company surveys, input-output-analytical methods to statistical analyzes - the results of the present study can be regarded as highly plausible. o High employment effects compared to Planco Hamburg (2011) The total (direct and indirect) employment impacts of the Bremen ports in 2010 were jobs with a handling volume of 68.9 million tonnes, compared to the Port of Hamburg, whose port-dependent employment was calculated by Planco with 133,500 jobs with a handling volume of million tonnes. Bremen ports in 2010 then had a Employment Effects related to the Ports of Bremen in

10 factor of almost 1,100 direct and indirect port-dependent jobs per million tonnes handled. Hamburg achieved 1,160 port-dependent employees for the reference year (per million tonnes). These indicators will change to 1,052 in 2015 per million tonnes cargo handling in the Bremen ports and to 1,000 employees in the port of Hamburg with a handling volume of 73.4 million tonnes in the Bremen ports and million tonnes in the port of Hamburg (Fig. 1-3). Fig. 1-3 Port-dependent employees Bremen ports / Port of Hamburg (2015) Indirectly portdependent employees 53, Indirectly portdependent 18,200 Port related industry 26,950 Seaport industry 33,050 directly port-dependent employees Port related industry 27,850 Port industry (without wholesale) 49,850 0 Bremen Ports [77,250 Employees] Port of Hamburg [131,000 Employees] o Direct employment effects in Bremen are stronger than in Hamburg However, the share of direct port-dependent jobs is much higher. While three out of four employees in Bremen depend directly on the ports (76.8%), the corresponding share in Hamburg is only 59.3%. In the larger regional economy of Hamburg, this is offset by a correspondingly higher proportion of multiplier-induced indirect employment effects. With 1.68, the regional Employment Effects related to the Ports of Bremen in

11 multiplier in Hamburg is clearly above the value of 1.3 in Bremen. The higher direct port dependency of the Bremen economy compensates for the lesser indirect effects compared to Hamburg (Fig. 1-4). Fig. 1-4 Direct and indirect employees in comparison (port-dependent employees in 2015) Bremen Ports [77,250] Port of Hamburg [131,000] Direct 59,350 Indir. 17,900 Direct 77,700 Indirect 53,300 o Particularly, cargo structure in Bremen ports is labour-intensive The comparatively strong direct port-dependency in Bremen is above all due to the higher employment intensity of the Bremen structure of cargo handled. Compared to Hamburg, this is characterized by a high proportion (10.9% to 1.2%) of the particularly labour-intensive conventional cargo handling and by a relatively small proportion (14.0% to 33.0%) of the low-employment bulk cargo handling. However, the employment intensity of conventional general cargo handling in the Bremen ports in 2015 is about four times the average number of employees per tonnage (416 workplaces per million tonnes), while the employment intensity of bulk goods handling reaches just under 30% of the average value as shown in the figure below (Fig. 9-5). Employment Effects related to the Ports of Bremen in

12 Fig. 1-5 Employment intensity of cargo structure in 2015 Cargo Structure Bremen Ports 11% 14% 75% Employmentintensity Bremen Ports* 286 1,697 Weighted Average: 416 Cont. Gener. Cargo** 122 Bulk Cargo Cargo Structure Port of Hamburg 1% 33% 66% * Employed in the seaport sector per million tonnes handled ** including vehicles A high employment intensity (jobs per handling volume) corresponds mathematically to a small "turnover productivity" (handling volume per workplace). However, the term "transhipment productivity" is not to be understood as "quality of the production conditions", but as a technical result of the cargo structure. It has to be mentioned that the employment intensity is strongly determined by the cargo category. o Cross-border employment effects Port-dependent employment in the different federal states with regard to "own" ports with a total of 252,150 jobs is significantly lower than "dependency on all ports" (288,450 jobs). Conversely, this means that the ports also induce an additional employment effect of 31,450 workplaces in the neighbouring countries (Fig. 1-6). Fig. 1-6 Port-dependency in Northwest German Federal States in 2015 Port-dependent employed persons in 252,150 Port State 4,850 31,450 Neighbouring State Commuter consumption effect total: 288,450 In addition, an estimated 4,850 indirectly port-dependent employees in Lower Saxony are the result of the commuter consumption effects of the employees of the Bremen and Hamburg ports who live in Lower Saxony. In total, port dependency in the states of Bremen, Hamburg and Lower Saxony thus amounts to 288,450 jobs. Employment Effects related to the Ports of Bremen in

13 The port dependency is distributed to the individual port groups in 2015 approximately corresponding to the handling volumes. The 83,350 employees dependent on the Bremen ports represent a share of 28.9% in northwest Germany. 147,300 or 51,1% are attributed to the port of Hamburg, 57,800 or 20,0% of port-dependent jobs can be attributed to the ports of Lower Saxony (Fig. 1-7). Fig. 1-7 Employment dependent on Northwest German Seaports in 2015 Persons employed port-dependent in NWG* depending on 57,800 20% 147,300 51% 83,350 29% Lower Saxony ports Port of Hamburg Bremen Ports [In NWG 288,450] *) Northwest Germany o Bremen's ports secure 10,200 jobs in the Lower Saxony region In the port economy (1,850 jobs) and in the port-related economy (3,150 jobs) in the surrounding area of Bremen and Bremerhaven, a total of 5,000 jobs are directly dependent on the Bremen ports. As a result of the input and consumption effects, the employment effects of the Bremen ports in the neighbouring state are further increased by 3,000 indirect jobs. In addition, more than 28,400 of Bremen's direct and indirect port-dependent employees live in the Lower Saxon region. Consumption expenditures by Bremen commuters and their households indirectly secure a further 1,750 jobs there (Fig. 1-8). Fig. 1-8 Lower Saxony depency on Bremen ports in 5,000 3,000 1,750 Direct Indirect Bremen "Commuters"* [9,750 employees] *) Consumption effcts Bremen Commuters Employment Effects related to the Ports of Bremen in

14 o 83,350 work-places in northwest Germany depend on the ports of Bremen The employment, which depends on the Bremen ports, is not restricted to the state of Bremen. Rather, 10,550 (13%) in Lower Saxony and 4,050 jobs (5%) in Hamburg can be added to the effects of the ports of Bremen (Fig. 1-9). Fig. 1-9 Dependency of employment in Northwest Germany related to the ports of Bremen in 2015 Employees in Northwest Germany depending on the ports of Bremen 82% 68,750 5% 4,050 13% 10,550 Lower Saxony City State of Hamburg City State of Bremen total 83,350 employees o Regional economic impact of Bremen ports outstanding The particular regional importance of Bremen's ports is reflected in the significantly higher employment rate of port-dependent jobs. While almost one-fifth of the workforce in the city state of Bremen (18.4%) depends on the ports in the state of Bremen, every eighth (11.5%) in Hamburg and only one in sixteen jobs in the Lower Saxony port regions (5.6 %) is port-dependent or related. With respect to the entire federal state of Lower Saxony, the proportion of port-dependent employees is 1.8% (Fig. 1-10). Employment Effects related to the Ports of Bremen in

15 Fig Port-dependent employment quota in Northwest Germany in % Share of port related employment in total employment 15% 18.4% 10% 11.5% port regions in NW Germany 9.8% 5% 5.6% 0% City State of Bremen City State of Hamburg Lower Saxony Port regions Employment Effects related to the Ports of Bremen in