CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IDEAS TO UNDERSTAND AND FACE COLOMBIA S CONSUMPTION SLOWDOWN

Transcription

1 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IDEAS TO UNDERSTAND AND FACE COLOMBIA S CONSUMPTION SLOWDOWN Pedro Manosalva August

2 BREAKFAST WITH PRESIDENTS Colombia continues showing positive economic perspectives. However, the FMCG are not following this dynamic in the regular channels Shopper facing different channel options How to stand out in this environment? To understand the emergent channels trends to develop strategies (advantage or defense) and adding value to our business 2

3 CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION Positive economic perspectives and consumer confidence GCP Q1 2014: 6,4% Unemployment 2014: 9,7% 2014: 9,0% COL YTD Jul 13: 1,8% YTD Jul 14: 2,7% Foreign Investment 2014: 8% Positive macroeconomic environment - Nielsen s basket is slowing down Consumer Confidence Index Q DANE s Retail Trend I Sem 14: 8,1 Nielsen s Basket Volume Growth 2014: 2,3 I Sem 14: 0,3 Widespread situation in other Latam countries * Source: Dane - Nielsen Consumer Confidence Nielsen RMS 3

4 HOW TO UTILIZE SPARE CASH AFTER COVERING ESSENTIAL NEEDS Households state that paying debts and savings are the priorities; however growth is seen in other fields 16% Travelling / Air traffic 60% of the Households state that their expenses increased 11% Automobile and Motorcycles sales 14% 25% Home Appliances and consumer electronics 8% Clothing Housing Loans Source: Nielsen Homescan Survey Dane_ BanRep - annual variations, may14 4

5 CATEGORIES AND CHANNELS General slowdown, especially in Personal Care, Foods and Home Care, focused mainly in Traditional stores BASKETS - VAR% VOLUME TOTAL COLOMBIA 2,6 2,0 1,2 4,4 0,7 1,2 1,3 2,9 1,6 2,5-2,4-0,3 BEBIDAS FAST MOVING ALTA BEVERAGES ROTACIÓN PERSONAL TOCADORCARE ALIMENTOS FOODS HOME ASEOCARE BEVERAGES BEBIDAS CONFECTIONARY CONFITERIA H'14 CHANNELS- VAR% VOLUME TOTAL COLOMBIA 3,4 2,4 2,2-0,5-0,1-6,4 TRADITIONAL SUPERMERCADOS SUPERMARKETS TRADICIONAL DRUGSTORES DROGUERÍAS STORES H 14 41% 52% 6% Shopper finds alternatives outside the regular channels Innovation, increase in value, price point strategies, drivers of the categories growing in Traditional trade VALUE Source: Nielsen Retail Index. High Rotation Beverages include: Soft Drinks, Beer, Isotonic, Energy Drinks, RTD Tea, Pasteurized Milk, Concentrated Coolers, Water, Juices, Malt and Refajo (Beer and CSD Mix) 5

6 NEW CHANNEL DEVELOPMENT Emergent channels presenting an important growth vs regular channels Value Structure 2% 4% 2% 12% 7% 11% 47% 13% 1% 109% Growth Value per Channel Growth in Value (1H 14 vs 13) Source: Nielsen Retail Index / Nielsen Homescan 1H Softdiscount include ARA y D1. Cash & Carry include Macro, Alkosto, Pricesmart 6

7 HOUSEHOLDS PENETRATION Increasing number of purchasing households in the last semester Value 2% 4% 2% % Hogares Compradores % Buying Households Softdiscount Door Venta to Directa Door Cash & Carry 1H H 2014 Source: Nielsen Homescan 1H

8 WHERE IS GROWTH COMING FROM? More than half of the volume comes from shifting with other channels, being Traditional Stores and Hypermarkets the ones with the greatest impact 71 % Shifting Consumption increase Softdiscount Door Venta to Directa door Cash & Carry 13% 42% 31% Traditional Stores Hypers Drugstores Other Channels Source: Nielsen Homescan Shifting 1H 2014 vs. 1H

9 SHOPPER WITH ADDITIONAL CHANNEL OPTIONS

10 DOOR TO DOOR 2 out of 3 households make door to door purchases quarterly Q % buying households 9 Main cities High High High Mid mid SEL SEL Mid SEL Low SEL Purchase Habits Door to Door Copyright Page 1 of 1 Quickfacts v2,2.dictionary v Q Q $7.800 $ Every 34 days Every 33 days Source: Homescan Baskets Q1 4 / Direct Sales JUN 14 10

11 BOGOTÁ: 43% OF THE HOMESCAN PURCHASE VOLUME What strategies can be designed to attract the attention of these consumers? Heavy Door to Door users are: Large (+ than 5 people) With children (teenagers) Housewife Between 41 and 50 year old Mid SEL Source: Spectra 11

12 HOW MUCH AND IN WHAT DO COLOMBIAN HOUSEHOLDS SPEND IN DIRECT SALES? In average, a Colombian household spends $ per month, in direct sales % Household Expenses Investment per purchase 8% 1% 24% PERSONAL CARE CLOTHING 52% 10% 3% 2% $ DOOR TO DOOR $ HOME CARE FOOD $ $ $ Source: Nielsen Homescan and Direct Sales Analysis, May

13 GREATER IMPACT ON PERSONAL CARE When merging D2D with Retail Channels, personal Care grows 2.1% in value Colombia VAR% VALUE TOTAL COLOMBIA 2,4 3,3 0,9 1,3 1,5 3,5-1,8 PERSONAL CARE FOODS HOME CARE BEVERAGES TOCADOR ALIMENTOS ASEO BEBIDAS HOMEDELIVERY VAR% EXPENSES 1H 14 59% 33% H'14 26% 14% PERSONAL TOCADOR CARE ALIMENTOS FOODS HOME ASEOCARE BEBIDAS BEVERAGES Expense Importance 3% 12%* 1% 1% *Without Make up Source Nielsen Retail Index, Homescan and Direct Sales Analysis May

14 SOFTDISCOUNT CASH AND CARRY Additional to more buying households, purchase frequency is more frequent. High and middle SEL involved in this phenomenon Q Penetration 12 SOFT DISCOUNT CASH & CARRY 9 CIUDADES ALTA + MEDIA MEDIA BAJA 9 Main cities High ALTA Mid SEL Mid SEL Low SEL 9 Main CIUDADESALTA cities High + MEDIA Mid SEL ALTA MEDIA Mid SEL Low BAJA SEL Purchase Habits Softdiscount Purchase Habits Cash & Carry Q $8.200 Q Every 14 days Source: Nielsen Homescan Q1 4 / Direct Sales JUN 14 $8.400 Every 11 days Q $ Q Every 50 days $ Every 43 days 14

15 PURCHASE MISSIONS Cash & Carry with strong Supply purchases whilst Softdiscount more focused in Convenience EXPENSES PER PURCHASE TARGET? Source: Nielsen Homescan Q Total Panel CASH & CARRY SOFTDISCOUNT Impulse buying Convenience Daily purchase Supply 15

16 FEATURES OF THESE CHANNELS DIRECT SALES SOFTDISCOUNT CASH & CARRY High personal relation between the Shopper and the Salesman Limited stock, few brands and sub brands High average Ticket and few items Large Presentations and important weight on promotions Low Average Ticket, medium size (Everyday Low Price) Big size and high price point SKU s (exclusive) Payment Facilities Packaging different from usual (Ready To Sell products) High level of promotions and low support from private labels Important influence in Personal and Household Care Categories Focused in private labels Higher presence of imported products (at a lower price) Membership required in some cases 16

17 FREQUENCY AND SPEND CHANNEL MAP Drugstores Small Chain Supermarkets Low frequency/ Few contact points Cash & Carry Door to door Impulse buying / Low Ticket Softdiscount Independent Supermarkets Hypers Supply / High Ticket Big Chains Supermarkets Traditional Stores Source: Nielsen Homescan Q1 4 / Directo Sales JUN 14 High frequency/ Several contact points 17

18 ADDING VALUE TO OUR BUSINESS

19 BRANDS REACHING VALUE GROWTH Although most brands are price stable (51% of brands responsible for 60% of sales), there are 43 brands (14% of analyzed brands) which grew in value with average price increases higher to 4% Winners Manufacturers with value growth CLUSTERS BY PRICE BEHAVIOR 14% Value Manufacturers without value growth 26% % 26 IMPORTANCE IMPORTANCIA 16 CONTRIBUTION APORTE VALORIZACIÓN + VALUE ESTABLE DESVALORIZACIÓN - VALUE Source: Retail 306 brands analyzed in 64 categories 19

20 DRIVERS OF VALUE FOR WINNER BRANDS Growth of Premium varieties within the Portfolio, packaging development and price increase the most common drivers used by brands with the best performances VALUE GROWTH DRIVERS IN WINNER BRANDS 39% Premium Products Development 8% Premium Brand Launching Premium Products Launching 12% Premium Brand Development 2% 1% 23% -TPR o - Promotion Packaging and Presentations Price Increase 15% 20

21 COMMON FACTORS IN SUCCESSFUL PRODUCTS Benefit focus communication, optimal availability products levels and point of sales support the most common points With Media investment 55% 70% of communication is focused on the advantages of these products over other products of the category 3 times more protection 90% whiter 3 times more fragrance Food categories focused on new line extensions (New flavors) 25% of the products have a time limit to reach results promised results 21

22 COMMON FACTORS IN SUCCESSFUL PRODUCTS Benefit focus communication, optimal availability products levels and point of sales support the most common points With Media Investment 55% 40% of products with more than two years in the market had line extensions in % of products with over two years in the market, increased their distribution in supermarkets and drugstores 86% Supermarkets distribution within the first month of product launch 22

23 COMMON FACTORS IN SUCCESSFUL PRODUCTS Benefit focus communication, optimal availability products levels and point of sales support the most common points With Media investment 55% 57% Are POS support focus for the brand 86% Supermarkets distribution within the first month of product launch 23

24 BREAKTHROUGH INNOVATION : WIN / WIN All breakthrough innovation present these common characteristics FOR CONSUMERS FOR THE COMPANY Are able to stand out in the market DISTINCTIVENESS Are able to grow the category Resolves a circumstance of struggle and fulfills unmet aspiration RELEVANCE Bring substantial and incremental revenue Generate empathy and loyalty ENDURANCE Are able to stay in market throughout year 24

25 NOT A RECIPE, BUT A FRAMEWORK DEMAND DRIVEN INSIGHT DEMAND DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT DEMAND DRIVEN ACTIVATION Consumers hire products to perform a Job Faithful adherence to the specifications of consumer demand Bringing the Insight to life: linking the product to the job 25

26 POWERFUL INSIGHT PRECISE DEVELOPMENT Meow Mix is one of the 2014 Breakthrough Innovation winners THE INSIGHT Cats love wet food! Owners love dry food! There is an evident stress CURRENT BEHAVIOURS Owners feed the cat dry food and live with the guilt! Owners feed the cat with wet food and live with the mess! Mixing both? THE JOB Guilty free and convenient way to feed the cat! Emotional bond 26

27 CONCLUSIONS FMCG Slowdown Trend Spare Cash Smuggling taking out 1 point of growth in volume Offers are not helping in volume growth (increase purchase in volume and expense but longer time between purchases, ending in less-equal consumption Invested mainly in mortgage, travel, household electronics & computer and vehicles How to regain consumer interest in investing in our goods? Channels and brands Development of low price and with easy payment terms channels Value winner brands taking advantage of POS support, line/brand extensions, benefits and communication 27

28 THANKS!