Development statement on GRTgaz s transmission system 2010-2019
Contents Framework of the development statement and its evolution Changes in demand Highlights 2010 Capacity provision schedule Development projects in the North zone, South Zone and the North South Link Investments excluding fluidification - 2 -
Framework of the development statement Tool for dialogue with all GRTgaz stakeholders: customers, adjacent operators, regulator, shareholder Prospective study and not binding for GRTgaz Description of the possible developments in major transport infrastructure for the next ten years: If market demand is confirmed and translated into commitments; If investment projects are approved by the CRE in accordance with the tariff order; If the resulting investment budgets are validated by the shareholder. - 3 -
Possible evolution related to the 3rd Energy Package (1/2) The prospective study falls to a great extent within the framework agreed for the future Ten-Year Network Development Plan: The transport system operator sets out reasonable assumptions about the evolution of production, supply, consumption and trade with adjacent operators (transport, storage and LNG terminal operators); It consults with all stakeholders to design its forecasts of changes in demand; It describes the measures planned to ensure system adequacy and security of supply, including significant transportation infrastructure that needs to be built or upgraded over the next 10 years. - 4 -
Possible evolutions related to the 3rd Energy Package (2/2) The future Ten-Year Network Development Plan will also include: the schedule of investments (including those to be completed within 3 years) the distinction between decided and undecided investments; a component on the consistency with: the plans for investments in regional projects; the ENTSOG s non-binding ten-year network development plan, at the European level - 5 -
Changes in demand The needs of the market are given concrete expression by: Additional interconnection capacity with adjacent gas infrastructure (main network) gas imports transactions on gas Hubs A demand for changes to the structure of the French gas market, including the merger of balancing zones in the long term (main network) Additional capacity related to new CCGTs (main network/regional network) Additional capacity related to forecasted increase in gas consumption in France (regional network). - 6 -
Changes in annual consumption 600 Comparaison des hypothèses de consommation établies en 2009 et 2010 500 Total des consommations - Périmètre GRTgaz Hypothèses GRTgaz 2010 400 Hypothèses GRTgaz 2009 TWh 300 Secteur résidentiel et tertiaire Réalisé 2000 à 2009 200 Secteur industrie 100 Production d'électricité centralisée et cogénérations 0 Growth driven by power generation (+10.8%/year) which amounts to an average growth of nearly 1.7% annually between 2009 and 2019-7 -
Changes in peak consumption Comparaison des hypothèses de consommation à la pointe en 2009 et 2010 4500 4000 Total - périmètre GRTgaz Pointe P2 en GWh/j 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Distributions publiques GRTgaz-2010 GRTgaz-2009 1000 Clients directs 500 Changes resulting from forecasts concerning public distribution and customers directly connected to the transmission network, as well as annual consumption growth forecasts. - 8 -
The significant impact of electricity generation 10 gas-fired power plants already connected to GRTgaz s transport network. 12 times the capacity required to supply the city of Rennes in winter. - 9 -
Subscription rates at the system s interconnections 100% ZONE NORTH 100% 25% 100% ZONE SOUTH H: 93% B: 99% 100% 99% Triggering of Open Seasons: Changes in the subscription rate of interconnections; Market demand Demand of adjacent TSOs 89% TIGF ZONE Firm capacity subscription rate in 2009-10 -
France : at the crossroads of European gas flows Many routes for importing gas, by land and sea LNG Norway Norway and Holland Russia Interconnections with neighbouring hubs A geological bonus : major underground storage capacity LNG Italy Demand associated with an increase in arbitration capacities Spain LNG - 11 -
Arbitration needs 2 important factors: Unconventional gas (US) The differential between long-term contracts and spot prices (to be compared with the average price of transport in France) - 12 -
The development of interconnections An interactive process with market stakeholders to identify needs and meet demand: Open seasons (PIR) Coordination with adjacent operators (PITM) Appropriate risk management, before and after the decision to build the infrastucture : Reservation of capacity by users prior to the decision to build Cover of study costs by project proponents Regular dialogue with the CRE on economic and commercial aspects related to each project - 13 -
The merger of market zones 330 TWh 330 TWh 170 TWh 130 TWh? 500 TWh 40 TWh 460 TWh 40 TWh - 14 -
Highlights 2010 (1/3) Result of the consultation Belgium > France: development capacity of + 50 GWh/d at Taisnières Result of the market consultation for the development of interconnection capacity between Spain and France: By 2013: the Larrau PIR (network interconnection point) will increase from 110 to 165 GWh/d and the Midi PIR from 80 to 255 GWh/d (South north) By 2015: the Biriatou PIR from 5 to 60 GWh/d The reinforcements in the core of the network (Arc de Dierrey and Eridan) have not been decided as part of these Open Seasons The decision concerning the development of the North <> South link has been postponed (prior consultation required, given the potential new investments needed) - 15 -
Highlights 2010 (2/3) LNG terminal projects are still on track : Dunkerque Antifer Fos Faster Development of existing terminals: Fos and Montoir Development of the France Belgium interconnection: consultation currently underway Reverse development project for the France - Switzerland link: consultation currently underway in Switzerland Project to develop transmission capacity to Luxembourg: launch of the consultation planned at the SG meeting of the NW GRI on 26 November 2010 in Brussels. - 16 -
Highlights 2010 (3/3) Cooperation between French TSOs for the development of a gas flow simulation tool across the whole of France: Tool built by the two TSOs in late 2009, implemented in the years 2011 and 2013. Confirmation of congestions identified for 2011. N.B.: The simulations performed across the entire French network have made it possible to optimise the West/East flow patterns and to lighten the load on Obergailbach. No risk of structural congestion between the GRTgaz South zone and the TIGF zone by 2013 except for maintenance works that may reduce the physical capacity of the infrastructure, and very particular flow patterns. - 17 -
Projected schedule FORECASTS OF EXISTING AND COMMITTED FIRM CAPACITY AT THE ENTRY AND EXIT POINTS (in GWh/j, on 1st January) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 eventually Zone GRTgaz North Entry points PIR Dunkerque 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 PITTM Dunkerque 360-520 PIR Taisnières H 590 590 590 590 640 640 640 PIR Taisnières B 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 PIR Obergailbach 620 620 620 620 620 620 620 PITTM Montoir 370 370 370 370 370 420 420-550 PITM Antifer 315 GRTgaz South GRTgaz North 120 230 230 230 230 230 330 PIR Oltingue 100 Exit points PIR Oltingue 223 223 223 223 223 223 280 PIR France Belgique 80 80 80-400 Zone GRTgaz South Entry points PITTM Fos 410 410 410 410 410 410 710 PIR TIGF GRTgaz South 80 80 80 80 255 255 255 GRTgaz North GRTgaz South 230 230 230 230 230 230 430 Exit points GRTgaz South TIGF 325 325 325 325 395 395 395 Changes 2010 / 2019: additional between 485 GWh/d and 2580 GWh/d - 18 -
From the development of capacity to the development of the network NORTH SOUTH Interconnections Core of the network In an "entry-exit" model, capacity development demand is mostly expressed at the interconnection points (in particular PIR, PITM) The development of structures that link the interconnection points to the core of the network can be directly allocated to the development of the corresponding entry/exit capacity The development of the core network contributes to facilitate gas flows within the market zone - 19 -
Strengthening the core of the network : North zone GAS
Strengthening the core of the network : North zone < Given current loads, a major structure is needed, hence: Cuvilly / Dierrey / Voisines
Strengthening the core of the network : North zone GAZ
Strengthening the core of the network : North zone Given current loads, a major structure is needed, hence: Chémery Dierrey - Voisines
North Zone Interconnection projects PITM: Dunkerque, Antifer, Montoir PIR: Taisnières, France Belgium, Oltingue, Luxembourg Reinforcements of the core of the network (600 km): Cuvilly-Dierrey-Voisines Laneuvelotte-Morelmaison- Voisines-Palleau St Arnoult-Cherré Dierrey - Chémery - 24 -
Strengthening the core of the network : South zone GAS
SPAIN Reinforcement of the core network in the South zone Given current congestions, a major structure is required: second looping of Rhône and East Lyon pipelines. GERMANY SWITZERLAND ITALY
South Zone Dunkirk BELGIUM GERMANY Inter-connection projects: PITM: Fos Faster and Fos Tonkin PIR: France - Spain SWITZERLAND Reinforcement of the core network (350km): ITALY Chazelles St Martin St Avit (Eridan) St Avit Etrez - Palleau SPAIN - 27 -
North/South: the essentials Dunkirk GAS GERMANY SWITZERLAND ITALY
North/South: + 200 GWh/d (2009 analysis) Dunkirk BELGIUM GERMANY Given current saturations, a major structure is required: Cuvilly Dierrey Voisines SWITZERLAND ITALY
North-South Link High market expectations Studies completed and communicated in 2008/2009 Dunkirk BELGIUM Dunkirk BELGIUM GERMANY GERMANY SWITZERLAND SWITZERLAND ITALY ITALY SPAIN + 200 GWh/d 1.7 billion A cost which is highly dependent on the projects already decided Consultation with market actors to continue SPAIN Merging of the zones 2.4 billion - 30 -
Investments other than fluidification Public service obligations Connection Reliability Environment Security A distribution based on forecasts over the period 2010-2019 - 31 -
Thank you for your attention - 32 -