Global Yield Gap Atlas an agronomic database with local and global relevance. Martin van Ittersum Plant Production Systems group

Transcription

1 Global Yield Gap Atlas an agronomic database with local and global relevance Martin van Ittersum Plant Production Systems group

2 Questions of this symposium Should and could agricultural production be increased at the global scale? Where should agricultural productivity be increased? What are the existing limiting factors for increasing agricultural production? Which intensification pathways could and should be adopted? These questions require agronomic rigour! 2

3 FAO projection: +60% demand ( ) 3

4 Tilman et al.: % crop yields Tilman et al., 2011 (PNAS)

5 Five reasons why % by 2050 must be revisited FAO projection expressed in monetary value Baseline ( ) is 10 years old Projections on drivers of demand (population and economic growth) need continuous update Demand increases => production increases? Projections are for the globe, but with huge regional differences See also: Hunter et al., Bioscience. 5

6 Population increase Continent World Asia Africa Sub-Saharan Africa North America Latin America Europe Oceania United Nations,

7 Meaning of increased global demand is region-specific! Two extremes: Sub-Saharan Africa s demand will rise fastest because of population growth and dietary change => tripling production Europe can (should?) play a leading role in developing circular food systems

8 Questions of this symposium Should and could agricultural production be increased at the global scale? Where should agricultural productivity be increased? What are the existing limiting factors for increasing agricultural production? Which intensification pathways could and should be adopted? These questions require agronomic rigour! 8

9 Motivation to start Global Yield Gap Atlas 1. Estimates of extra crop production potential in existing farmland and with available water resources 2. Support to prioritize investment in agricultural research and development and monitor impact 3. Foundation for narrowing yield gaps, estimate nutrient and water requirements, and for studies on climate change, land use, and environmental footprint 4. Platform to integrate biophysical and socio-economic factors 5. To develop a global database with agronomic rigour!

10 Global Yield Gap Atlas 62 countries, major food crops, accounting for 70, 84, 45% of rice, maize, and wheat With University of Nebraska, ICRISAT, AfricaRice, CIMMYT and many national partners Major food crops in the world Global protocol with local application Local data and evaluation Strong agronomic foundation Co-financed by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

11 Crop grain yield (t/ha/year) Yield potential, farm yield, and yield gaps Determined by: Radiation Temperature [CO 2 ] Cultivar Rainfall & soil (in rainfed crops) Limited by: Poor Fertility Yield gap* Poor management Insects, weeds diseases * Reaching 75-85% of yield potential is a reasonable target for farmers with access to inputs, markets, and extension services. * Further yield increase is not costeffective and/or environmentally sound. Yield Potential Farm yield Modified from: van Ittersum and Rabbinge, Field Crops Research (1997)

12 Global Yield Gap Atlas ( Broad usage in 2017 : 30,000 users of website; 230,000 page-views; 4,500 downloads Sector Downloads NGO s/foundations 333 Industry 235 Academia 2089 Government 452 Media 12 Individual (producer, consultant, extension) 2000

13 Schils et al.,

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16 Questions of this symposium Should and could agricultural production be increased at the global scale? Where should agricultural productivity be increased? What are the existing limiting factors for increasing agricultural production? Which intensification pathways could and should be adopted? These questions require agronomic rigour! 16

17 Contribute to food security analysis Van Ittersum et al., PNAS 17

18 Growth in population and cereal demand A factor 3.4 increase! Van Ittersum et al., 2016 (PNAS)

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20 Can SSA feed itself? - cereals Van Ittersum et al., PNAS

21 Required trend change maize yields

22 Questions of this symposium Should and could agricultural production be increased at the global scale? Where should agricultural productivity be increased? What are the existing limiting factors for increasing agricultural production? Which intensification pathways could and should be adopted? These questions require agronomic rigour! 22

23 Actual and potential water productivity rainfed maize 23

24 Water productivity gaps (rainfed conditions)

25 Water or non-water limiting factors? Rattalino Edreira, Guilpart, Sadras, Cassman, Van Ittersum, Schils, Grassini, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,

26 Estimating nutrient requirements - maize 50% Y w 80% Y w Ten Berge, De Vries, Van Loon, Hijbeek, Rattallino Edreira and Van Ittersum, 2018 (In review)

27 Questions of this symposium Should and could agricultural production be increased at the global scale? Where should agricultural productivity be increased? What are the existing limiting factors for increasing agricultural production? Which intensification pathways could and should be adopted? These questions require agronomic rigour! 27

28 Winter wheat yield (ton ha -1 ) Decomposing yield gaps Yp Y HF Y TEx Ya Technology yield gap Resource yield gap Efficiency yield gap Actual yield Crop inputs (x) Silva et al., Eur. J. of Agron.

29 Three contrasting case studies Mixed farming in Southern Ethiopia Rice farming in Central Luzon, Philippines Arable farming in the Netherlands Sample: 200 farms Year: 2012 Farm size: < 2.5 ha Crops: Maize in Hawassa and wheat in Asella Sample: 100 farms Year: Farm size: 1.7 ha Crops: Rice (wet season and dry season) Sample: 175 farms Year: Farm size: ~60 ha Crops: Wheat, barley, potato, sugar beet, onion Silva et al., in preparation

30 Overview of crop yield gaps Southern Ethiopia Large yield gap due to efficiency and technology yield gaps. Central Luzon, Philippines Medium yield gap due to efficiency, resource and technology yield gaps. The Netherlands Small yield gap due to efficiency and technology gaps. Silva et al., Eur. J. of Agron. Silva et al., Ag. Systems

31 Interventions to narrow yield gap(s) Yield (tons/ha) Main causes Policies Potential yield Feasible yield Economic yield Technical efficient yield Actual yield Yield gap Technology Yield gap Economic Yield gap Allocative Yield gap Technical efficiency yield gap Agricultural innovation system and broader institutional, technological, economic and social factors Transaction and transportation costs Knowledge and financial constraints, risk issues and information asymmetries Suboptimal crop management caused by knowledge, skills and information gaps. Investment in applied agricultural research and development programs Investment in rural roads Policies to decrease transaction costs Credit & insurance Expand agro-dealer networks Support market information Land tenure systems Smart input subsidies Improve extension services Stimulate knowledge transfer from best practice to average farmers Sliva et al., 2017 Van Dijk et al.,

32 Future harvest Thank you for your attention! Merci to MAK!IT

33 GYGA References van Ittersum MK, Cassman KG, Grassini P, Wolf J, Tittonell P, Hochman Z Yield gap analysis with local to global relevance a review. Field Crops Res. 143:4-17 van Bussel LGJ, Grassini P, Van Wart J, Wolf J, Claessens L, Yang H, Boogaard H, de Groot H, Saito K, Cassman KG, van Ittersum MK, From field to atlas: Upscaling of location-specific yield gap estimates. Field Crops Res. 177, Van Wart J, Grassini P, Yang HS, Claessens L, Jarvis A, Cassman KG, Creating long-term weather data from thin air for crop simulation modelling. Agric. Forest Meteoro. 208, Van Wart J, van Bussel LGJ, Wolf J, Licker R, Grassini P, Nelson A, Boogaard H, Gerber J, Mueller ND, Claessens L, Cassman KG, van Ittersum MK Reviewing the use of agro-climatic zones to upscale simulated crop yield potential. Field Crops Res. 143, Grassini P, van Bussel LGJ, Van Wart J, Wolf J, Claessens L, Yang H, Boogaard H, de Groot H, van Ittersum MK, Cassman KG, How good is good enough? Data requirements for reliable crop yield simulations and yield-gap analysis. Field Crops Res. 177, J. Wolf, K. Ouattara, I. Supit, Sowing rules for estimating rainfed yield potential of sorghum and maize in Burkina Faso. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 214, van Oort PAJ, Saito K, Tanaka A, Amovin-Assagba E, Van Bussel LGJ, van Wart J, de Groot H, van Ittersum MK, Cassman KG, Wopereis, MCS Assessment of rice self-sufficiency in 2015 in eight African countries. Global Food Security 5, Gobett D, Hochman Z, Horan H, Navarro-Garcia J, Grassini P, Cassman KG, Yield gap analysis of rainfed wheat demonstrates local to global relevance. Journal of Agric. Sci. (Cambridge) Marin F, Martha G, Cassman KG, Grassini P., Prospects for increasing sugarcane and bioethanol production on existing crop area in Brazil. BioScience 66, Aramburu Merlos F., Monzon JP, Mercau JL, Taboada, M, Andrade, FH, Hall AJ, Jobbagy E, Cassman KG, Grassini P, Potential for crop production increase in Argentina through closure of existing yield gaps. Field Crops Res. 184, Van Ittersum MK, van Bussel LGJ, Wolf J, Grassini P., et al Can Sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? PNAS 113, van Oort PAJ, Saito K, Dieng I, Grassini P, Cassman KG, van Ittersum MK Can yield gap analysis be used to inform R&D prioritisation? Global Food Security (In Press). Timsina J, Wolf J, Guilpart N, van Bussel LGJ, Grassini P, van Wart J, Hossain A, Rashid H, Islam S, van Ittersum MK (2016) Can Bangladesh produce enough cereals to meet future demand? Agric Syst (In Press) Espe MB, Cassman KG, Yang H, Guilpart N, Van Wart J, Grassini P, Anders M, Beighley D, Harrell D, Linscombe S, McKenzie K, Mutters R, Wilson T, Linquist BA (2016) Yield gap analysis of US rice production systems shows opportunities for improvement. Field Crops Res. 196, Schils, R., Olesen, J.E., Kersebaum, K.-C., Rijk, B., Oberforster, M., Kalyada, V., Khitrykau, M., Gobin, A., Kirchev, H., Manolova, V., Manolov, I., Trnka, M., Hlavinka, P., Paluoso, T., Peltonen-Sainio, P., Jauhiainen, L., Lorgeou, J., Marrou, H., Danalatos, N., Archontoulis, S., Fodor, N., Spink, J., Roggero, P.P., Bassu, S., Pulina, A., Seehusen, T., Uhlen, A.K., Żyłowska, K., Nieróbca, A., Kozyra, J., Silva, J.V., Maçãs, B.M., Coutinho, J., Ion, V., Takáč, J., Mínguez, M.I., Eckersten, H., Levy, L., Herrera, J.M., Hiltbrunner, J., Kryvobok, O., Kryvoshein, O., Sylvester-Bradley, R., Kindred, D., Topp, C.F.E., Boogaard, H., de Groot, H., Lesschen, J.P., van Bussel, L., Wolf, J., Zijlstra, M., van Loon, M.P., van Ittersum, M.K., Cereal yield gaps across Europe. European Journal of Agronomy 101, Rattalino Edreira, J.I., Guilpart, N., Sadras, V., Cassman, K.G., van Ittersum, M.K., Schils, R.L.M., Grassini, P., Water productivity of rainfed maize and wheat: A local to global perspective. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 259, Rattalino Edreira, J.I., Kenneth G Cassman, Zvi Hochman, Martin K van Ittersum, Lenny G.J. van Bussel, Lieven Claessens, Patricio Grassini. Beyond the plot: accelerating innovation in agronomic science. Environmental Research Letters 13, / /aac092.

34 References on understanding yield gaps Silva, J.V.; Reidsma, P.; Laborte, A.G; van Ittersum, M.K. 2017a. Explaining rice yields and yield gaps in Central Luzon, Philippines: An application of stochastic frontier analysis and crop modelling. European Journal of Agronomy, 82 Part B, Silva, J.V.; Reidsma, P.; Velasco, M.L.; Laborte, A.G.; van Ittersum, M.K Intensification of rice-based farming systems in Central Luzon, Philippines: Constraints at field, farm and regional levels. Agricultural Systems, 165, Silva, J.V.; Reidsma, P.; van Ittersum, M.K. 2017b. Yield gaps in Dutch arable farming: Analysis at crop and crop rotation level. Agricultural Systems, 158, Silva, J.V.; Baudron, F.; Reidsma, P.; Giller, K.E. Is labour a major determinant of yield gaps in sub-saharan Africa? A study for cereal-based production systems in Southern Ethiopia. Under Review, Agricultural Systems. Wang, N., Reidsma, P., Pronk, A.A., de Wit, A.J.W., van Ittersum, M.K., Can potato add to China's food self-sufficiency? The scope for increasing potato production in China. European Journal of Agronomy 101,