Agricultural Mechanization: Its Role in the Development of Civilization

Transcription

1 CLUB of BOLOGNA 25 th Annual Meeting of the Club of Bologna November 15-16, 2014 Bologna EIMA International 2014 Agricultural Mechanization: Its Role in the Development of Civilization Part 1- Agricultural Mechanization: a Success Story of Mankind Part 2- Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare Luigi Bodria luigi.bodria@unimi.it K.T Renius renius@ftm.mw.tum.de

2 CLUB of BOLOGNA 25 th Annual Meeting of the Club of Bologna November 15-16, 2014 Bologna EIMA International 2014 Part 1 Agricultural Mechanization: a Success Story of Mankind Luigi Bodria - luigi.bodria@unimi.it

3 Basic Development Paradigm Agriculture Food Food People Agricultural Tools Food Surplus Food Surplus People Free for Development Key Note Bodria-Renius I

4 Agricultural Mechanization The oldest technologies in the world = mother of future innovation Still essential (or crucial?) for human survival and development Key Note Bodria-Renius I

5 Population growth is closely linked to agricultural yield Key Note Bodria-Renius I

6 Main steps of human development are linked to the increased efficiency of agricultural processes Population (10 6 ) Seed Efficiency Labour requirement (man-our/ha) Classical Age : 2 - Middle Age : 4 - Agricultural Revolution : : : Key Note Bodria-Renius I

7 Innovation in the Neolithic Revolution Key Note Bodria-Renius I

8 Neolithic Revolution 10,000 1 BC Population: (10 6 ) Growth rate: 20,000 (people/y) Seeding efficiency: 1:2 Key Note Bodria-Renius I

9 Innovation in the Middle Age Handcraft and iron working Improved plough Improved animal traction Water and windmill Key Note Bodria-Renius I

10 Middle Age 1300 AC Population: 350 (10 6 ) Growth rate: 200,000 (people/y) Seeding efficiency: 1:4 Key Note Bodria-Renius I

11 Innovation in the Agricultural Revolution Better land management Improved crop and breeding system Agricultural tool become ag. machinery Key Note Bodria-Renius I

12 Agricultural Revolution 1700 Population: 600 (10 6 ) Growth rate: 4,000,000 (people/y) Seeding efficiency: 1: 7 Labour efficiency: 1000 (man-hour/ha) Key Note Bodria-Renius I

13 Industrial Revolution Population: 2500 (10 6 ) Growth rate: 43,000,000 (people/y) Seeding efficiency: 1: 15 Labour efficiency: 50 (man-hour/ha) Key Note Bodria-Renius I

14 Global average yields of major cereals, Key Note Bodria-Renius I

15 Undernourished in developing countries declined from over 30% to 15% in 45 years Key Note Bodria-Renius I

16 2014 Combine Harvesting World Record Lincolnshire, 15 August 2014 Total time: 8 hours Average yield: 9.95 t/ha Harvesting flow: 90.7 t/h Fuel consumpion; 1.12 dm 3 /t

17 In fifty years the fuel consumption per ton of wheat harvested is reduced to one third Key Note Bodria-Renius I

18 Millennium challenges Sustainability of intensive production Food self-sufficiency for less developed counties Key Note Bodria-Renius I

19 CLUB of BOLOGNA 25 th Annual Meeting of the Club of Bologna November 15-16, 2014 Bologna EIMA International 2014 Part 2 Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare renius@ftm.mw.tum.de

20 Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare Three global roles of agricultural mechanization 1. The classical role: mechanization of plant and animal production, storage and processing in order to feed the planet 2. The recently added environmental role: mechanization of raw material and energy production & landscape maintenance in order to safeguard the planet and its resources 3. The strategic role: mechanization of agriculture to increase labour productivity in order to develop welfare of complete national economies Renius 2008: key note celebrating 50 years of agricultural engineering within VDI Key Note Bodria-Renius II

21 Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare Item 1 and 2: Agricultural mechanization addresses a) Land productivity b) Labour productivity Key Note Bodria-Renius II

22 Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare a) Land productivity: Ag mechanization is one among several important factors: Breading Fertilizing Irrigation Plant protection Post harvesting methods Mechanization 80% plant production increase expected for Estimated population growth is only ~30%, but additionally expected is a progressiv increase of animal, energy and raw material production! Key Note Bodria-Renius II

23 Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare b) Labour productivity: Ag mechanization is the by far the dominating factor : Milking machine... factor (Renius 2008) 15 Two horses ploughing Small tractor ploughing Multi purpose tractor mowing Large tractor ploughing Large combine Objective: To reduce labour input, secure low food prices Key Note Bodria-Renius II

24 Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare Brasil 31 Combines, followed by 12 direct-seeders Working power equal to about hand workers with reduced losses and rather better working quality Source: Club of Bologna E. Ch. Mantovani / Brasil Key Note Bodria-Renius II

25 Part II (Renius) GDP and % working people in agriculture Source: Bodria/FAO Key Note Bodria-Renius II

26 Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare Three sector model: the case of USA Source: Fourastié 1963, Renius 2008 Key Note Bodria-Renius II

27 Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare The three sector model and the global future: A low level in agricultural mechanization usually means a high level of poverty a low level of infrastructure high illiteracy low expectation of life low drinking water availability high infant mortality often: low interest of investors Key Note Bodria-Renius II

28 Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare The majority of the nations of this globe still needs a considerably higher level in agricultural mechanization. How to realize? An important general condition is Political stability and internal peace. What can be done in ag engineering? Key Note Bodria-Renius II

29 Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare Globally planned tractor & machinery save costs for the industry and thus enables adequate prices for the farmer. But : How to meet the extremely wide span of demanded machinery specifications from very simple to high sophisticated? Key Note Bodria-Renius II

30 Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare FORDSON F 50% world market share around 1925, (Source: Renius farm) Key Note Bodria-Renius II

31 Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare Technology levels a first step 1999 Source: Renius 1999, CIGR Handbook III, chapter Tractors: Two Axle Tractors Key Note Bodria-Renius II

32 Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare Technology levels example complete tractor (2002) Renius 2002: Global tractor development: Product families and technology levels. 30. Symposium Actual Tasks on Agricultural Engineering, Opatiya Key Note Bodria-Renius II

33 Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare Low tech machinery projects in developing countries can benefit by Technology transfer: licences for blue prints Technology transfer: ISO standards Technology transfer: intern. co-operation Technology transfer: intern. publications Technology transfer: patents being expired Building up national ag engineering societies Improved national engineering education Key Note Bodria-Renius II

34 Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare Key Note Bodria-Renius II

35 Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare Upper technology levels: IT penetration benefits all important areas of farming: See also Part I - Bodria Productivity Product quality Traceability Sustainability Environment Energy efficiency Safety and comfort Farm management Key Note Bodria-Renius II

36 Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare Automation in agriculture is based on the cybernetic principle of closed loop control (Maxwell 1867,..., Isidori Club of Bologna 2012) Disturbing factors Set value Regulator Process Sensor Output Feed back Key Note Bodria-Renius II

37 Part II (Renius): Agricultural Mechanization: a Key for Future Mankind Welfare Integrated farming: Vision Auernhammer-Schueller 1999 Key Note Bodria-Renius II