Dr. Fabian Scholtes, ZEF Dr. Anna-Katharina Hornidge (Case study Indonesia), ZEF

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2 Dr. Fabian Scholtes, ZEF Dr. Anna-Katharina Hornidge (Case study Indonesia), ZEF EDITOR: CARE DEUTSCHLAND-LUXEMBURG, CENTER FOR DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH (ZEF) 2009

3 Foreword I. Introduction: climate change and poverty reduction are inseparable II. Climate change III. What climate change impacts are anticipated in future? IV. Climate change and poverty reduction V. Poverty reduction and strategies to secure livelihoods: case studies and lessons learned VI. Case study West Timor, Indonesia VII. Recommendations: poverty reduction in times of climate change

4 C

5 C

6 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ORGANISATIONS ON POVERTY REDUCTION

7 I. Climate change and poverty reduction are inseparable THE POOR ARE PARTICULARLY AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE AND VULNERABLE TO ITS IMPACTS

9 II. Climate change CONSEQUENCES AND PROJECTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE II.1.CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

11 II.2 PHYSICAL EFFECTS BEYOND CLIMATE CHANGE

12 BOX 1: CASCADE EFFECTS: A DAM BURST SCENARIO

13 II.3 CONSEQUENCES AND EXTREME EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: FEEDBACK AND TIPPING ELEMENTS

14 II.4 ECONOMIC AND HEALTH IMPACTS Changes in agricultural production potential (2080s, in % of the potential of 2000)

15 III. What climate change impacts are anticipated in future?

18 III.1 GLOBAL PROJECTIONS: IMPACTS IV. Climate change and poverty reduction IV.1 CLIMATE CHANGE, POVERTY AND POVERTY REDUCTION: HOW ARE THEY RELATED?

19 Final temperature levels (compared to preindustrial levels 0 C 1 C 2 C 3 C 4 C 5 C Decreasing harvests in many developing regions Food Severe effects in the Sahel zone Rising number of people threatened by hunger. Biggest increase in Africa and West Asia Severe decline of harvests in whole regions (e.g. up to one third of Africa) Increasing harvests in many developed regions due to CO2 fertilizer effect Decline of harvests in many developed regions despite CO2 fertilizer effect Considerable changes in water availability Water Disappearance of small glaciers worldwide potential threat to water supply in many areas Over 30% increase on flowing away of surface water in the Mediterranean region and in southern Africa Rising sea levels threaten large cities such as London, Shanghai, New York, Tokyo or Hong Kong Coral reef ecosystems extensively damaged; damage finally irreversible Possible start of breakdown of parts of or all the Amazon rain forest Ecosystems Large proportion of ecosystems which cannot preserve their present form Many species threatened with extinction Increasing intensity of storms, forest fires, flooding and heatwaves Extreme weather conditions Slight increase in hurricane intensity causes twice as much damage in dollars in the USA Danger of weakening of natural carbon dioxide sinks and the Atlantic thermohaline circulation; possible increase in release of natural methane Risk of rapid climate change and large-scale irreversible effects Start of irreversible melting of Greenland icecap Increased risk of abrupt, large-scale climate shifts (e.g. collapse of Atlantic thermohaline circulation or western Antarctic icesheet)

20 BOX 2: MI BOSQUE. CLIMATE PROTECTION = POVERTY REDUCTIONG

21 IV.2 ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

22 IV.3 SUPPORTING RESILIENCE

23 IV.4 CRITERIA FOR SUCCESSFUL ADAPTATION MEASURES

25 IV.5 MEASURES CRITERION EFFECTIVE- NESS DESCRIPTION FLEXIBILITY FAIRNESS EFFICIENCY SUSTAINA- BILITY

26 PROTECTION AND MAINTENANCE OF LIVELIHOODS SUPPORTING LIVELIHOODS

27 V. Poverty reduction and strategies to secure livelihoods: case studies and lessons learned V.1 SMALLHOLDER FARMERS IN TANZANIA: SPECIAL- ISING AND REDUCING DEPENDENCE ON AGRICULTURE

29 BOX 3: MICROINSURANCES AND WEATHER-RELATED DISASTERS: CARE INDIA AND BAJAJ ALLIANCE V.2 MICROINSURANCE IN INDIA: THE POOR PROTECT THEMSELVES AGAINST RISKS

31 VI. Case study West Timor, Indonesia VI.1 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN (EAST) INDONESIA VI.2 TOINEKE, WEST TIMOR: ECONOMY AND SOCIETY GENERAL DATA ON WEST TIMOR, INDONESIA

32 VI.3 PERCEPTIBLE LOCAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

33 CASE STUDY: IBU YANSE TON

35 CASE STUDY: PAK AUGUSTINUS LEBISA UND IBU NAEMA BANOET VI.4 COPING AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Preventive measures to avert the impacts of climate change

36 Short-term reactive coping strategies Future oriented coping strategies

37 Long-term adaptation strategies

38 CASE STUDY: IBU YANSE LAKABU

40 CASE STUDY: PAK YANDRI A. NENO UND IBU ANTONIA MISA

41 VI.5 TOINEKE: AN EXAMPLE OF LIFE IN POVERTY IN CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

42 VII. Recommendations: poverty reduction in times of climate change

44 Bibliography

46 IMPRINT The German Spendensiegel (donations seal) guarantees that your donation will be used responsibly, that the organization is run on economic lines and that all expenses are examined carefully.

CONTACT CARE Deutschland-Luxemburg e.v. Main office Dreizehnmorgenweg 6, 53175 Bonn Phone: (+49) 228 97563-0, Fax: -51 E-mail: info@care.

48 CONTACT CARE Deutschland-Luxemburg e.v. Main office Dreizehnmorgenweg 6, Bonn Phone: (+49) , Fax: Internet: Büro Berlin Luisenstraße 41, Berlin Phone: (+43) , Fax: CARE in Luxemburg a.s.b.l. 43, Bd. Du Prince Henri L-1724 Luxembourg Phone: (+352) , Fax: Internet: ZEF Center for Development Research (ZEF) Walter-Flex-Straße Bonn Phone: (+49) , Fax: zef@uni-bonn.de Internet:

Chapter 3: How Climate Change will Affect People Around the World. Lawrence Tse Chris Whitehouse

Chapter 3: How Climate Change will Affect People Around the World Lawrence Tse Chris Whitehouse Outline 3.1 Introduction 1 C 3.2 Water 2 C 3.3 Food 3 C 3.4 Health 4 C 3.5 Land + 3.6 Infrastructure 5 C