"Recultivation of the desiccated Aral Sea bed and promotion of private agriculture"

Transcription

1 Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development Evaluation Division Bonn, February 2005 Short report on the evaluation "Recultivation of the desiccated Aral Sea bed and promotion of private agriculture" The views expressed in this study are the opinions of independent, external consultants and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Ministry.

2 German Development Cooperation with Uzbekistan Short report of the evaluation "Recultivation of the desiccated Aral Sea bed and promotion of private agriculture" Summary The fourth largest inland sea in the world, the Aral Sea, measures 66,500 km². It is fed by the two main rivers in Central Asia, Amu Darya and Syr Darya. In the 60s and 70s, the whole Aral Sea Basin was demarcated as a priority zone for cotton growing and gigantic canals were built to conduct the water of the two tributaries to the cotton plantations. As a result of these measures, the Sea dried out because the reduced water supply was insufficient to offset losses through surface evaporation. The shoreline has now shifted inwards by more than one hundred kilometres, leaving a desiccated, salinated Aral Sea bed contaminated with pesticides. The desiccation of the Sea has altered the local and regional climate, with more frequent and intense sandstorms as a result. Transported along with the sand are salt deposits and pesticide and fertilizer residues on the former bed (e.g. heavy metals, DDT, lindane). So far, the scale and composition of atmospheric pollution has not been methodically and precisely ascertained, with figures from model calculations ranging between 40 and 70 million tonnes of discharge - a mixture of dust, salt and other chemicals. The desiccation of the Aral Sea is only the most spectacular effect of a widespread degradation in the conditions of life. The drop in water supply at the lower reaches of the rivers combined with the ongoing dilapidation of the irrigation systems has led to the decline of irrigation agriculture and the progressive degradation of the soils in the exposed areas. The desiccation of the Aral Sea and the decline of irrigation agriculture have had a severe economic, social and ecological impact on the Autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan in Uzbekistan. The region is amongst the poorest in Uzbekistan, its population suffering from worsening impoverishment and health hazards. Since 1995, the Federal Republic of Germany has been supporting transition in Uzbekistan by promoting private agriculture. As part of this, a new project was initiated in 2001 entitled "Recultivation of the desiccated Aral Sea bed and promotion of private agriculture". This project has continued components from the initial project, but the focus is on the two new components in Karakalpakstan: recultivation of the desiccated Aral Sea bed and the sustainable cultivation of salt tolerant crops and economic development. The evaluation concentrated on these project components in the Autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan. On the one hand, the task was to analyze and assess the impacts of the ecological, social and economic results achieved by the project so far. On the other, prospects were to be assessed for taking up the two components as the basis for extending the scheme in the Aral Sea region with international cofinance. Key questions of the evaluation were: Are the technologies and methods applied suitable as a contribution to the sustainable ecological improvement and stabilization of the Aral Sea region? Can the applied methods be replicated and are they an economically viable approach to control desertification? What account does the project take of other national and regional experience and

3 knowledge in recultivation and desertification control? Are there local executing/implementing agencies with the technical, organizational and administrative competencies to multiply and upgrade the procedures developed by the project? What impacts has the project had on improving the socio-economic situation of the target population? Have the project measures been effective in terms of impact and costs? How far have the principles on joint planning and implementation measures in the Convention to Combat Desertification been applied or promoted? What contribution does the project make to implementing the national and subregional programme of action for desertification control? In the assessment of the evaluation mission the results obtained by the project afford a large developmental scope for continuing the components. The pilot phase developed technically and organizationally feasible procedures, methods and technologies which are cost-efficient or economically tenable and capable of replication. Weak points with a view to continuation are the insufficient involvement of the project executing agency in the operational implementation of measures and the scant account taken of participatory elements in project planning and implementation. For technical and organizational reasons, we recommend splitting the two components in future and continuing them as separate projects in the new conceptual design. Findings Home to approx. 1.5 million people, the Autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan is an agrarian region. Socioeconomic indicators include low family income, high unemployment (in some districts up to 70%), a high incidence of respiratory ailments and water-induced diseases, malnutrition and undernourishment and temporary and permanent migration. A major contributory factor exacerbating poverty in Karakalpakstan is the desiccation of the Aral Sea. The direct consequences are climate change, particularly increased sandstorms, the forced abandonment of fishing as a livelihood and the emergence of 4 million hectares of desiccated Aral Sea bed, which is a permanent source of wind-carried sand, salt and toxic substances. The adverse effects are compounded by the decline in irrigation agriculture, resulting in progressive soil degradation and economic and social decay in the region. The project design aims at demonstrating the feasibility of sustainable environmental improvement through the broad recultivation of the desiccated Aral Sea bed and pointing out ways for the population living in the region to make sustainable use of natural resources to generate income. The pilot phase was concerned to develop and test concepts and procedures that meet the ecological, economic and social requirements. The pilot measures comprise test areas for recultivating the desiccated Aral Sea bed, testing and introducing salt tolerant crops in a trial enterprise and two measures (from 2002 onwards) for economic development (processing agricultural products and duck breeding). The planning in the pilot phase concentrated on developing efficient methods and managing the logistics of implementation and left questions of the institutional positioning in the executing agency largely out of account. In the component for recultivating the desiccated Aral Sea bed, the planning is largely based on long-standing experience gained by the Ministry of Agriculture and the Institute of Forestry in Uzbekistan. The ecosystem approach affords a good basis for implementing the component. Defects in the conceptual design are the concentration on planting measures, the neglect of the purposeful use of natural regenerative capabilities in ecological stabilization and the lack of a monitoring system to ascertain the impacts of the measures. The planning of the component for sustainable cropping and economic development is directly

4 linked with the seed component in the previous project. In a pragmatic approach, the economic development measures took up the opportunities available and developed them further. The component is geared to promoting private enterprises that create jobs for the local population. Under extremely difficult local and climatic conditions, the project has done an impressive job of mastering the challenges of broad recultivation. The physical results include planting about 21,000 hectares of erosion-prone sites. Considering the difficulty of the tasks and the innovative approach, the project implementation in the component for sustainable cropping and economic development can also rate as successful overall. Further efforts are, however, needed to mainstream the contents and approaches developed in the partner apparatus. A weak point is the low participation of the local test area population in planning and implementing the economic activities. When assessing the project results/impacts the short term and the experimental approach of individual measures have to be taken into account. The employment, income and supply impacts on the local population result on the one hand from the new jobs created by business startups (60 jobs in production and 56 in recultivation) and from the increasing development of small service and trade activities at local level. On the other, account has to be taken of the social services primarily provided by the farming enterprise in past emergencies. The findings on economic viability are subject to the proviso of the experimental approach adopted in the measures. The marginal costing for the agricultural enterprise records losses for Accounting for the whole area of arable land available, however, the enterprise is supposed to operate at breakeven in two years. Duck breeding is expected to record a positive operating result as of The trial enterprises can only be said to operate economically if the finance costs of the initial investment are left out of account in the costing. The developmental effectiveness of the pilot measures evidently lies in their demonstration function as tested elements in broader programmes. Thanks to the practical maturity and efficiency of the developed procedures at present, the measures for recultivating the desiccated Aral Sea bed afford considerable developmental scope. This applies both for their anticipated influence on climate and health. In the long run, the developmental effectiveness of the economic activities lies in providing broad advice and support for private farming enterprises that also includes assistance to subsistence smallholders. Recommendations In designing the pilot phase it made sense to combine the two components in one project since the intention was to develop new approaches for the ecological stabilization of the Aral Sea bed and for the economic and social development of the pre-aral region. With a view to continuation, we recommend separating the two components for technical and organizational reasons. For the component aimed at recultivating the desiccated Aral Sea bed, we recommend: Stepping up development assistance coordination and cooperation in natural resource management and desertification control in Uzbekistan and Central Asia and closer consultation in designing the sectoral contents. A closer amalgamation of development cooperation in natural resource management will strengthen the ability of the Convention project carried out by GTZ to exert influence on changing the political and institutional framework via the regional office for Central Asia in Kazakhstan. Supporting governments in the conceptual design and preparation of a national (Uzbekistan) and cross-border programme for the ecological stabilization of the desiccated Aral Sea bed and appraising a German contribution to this programme in cooperation or cofinance with other donors, particularly the World Bank and ADB

5 Setting up an organizational unit for project management in the Ministry of Agriculture with permanent experts and an implementing unit in Karakalpakstan, to be supported and advised by international experts and assisted under a strategy to develop national capacities in project management Revising the conceptual project design for ecological stabilization by taking greater account of the scope for natural regeneration and supportive recultivation Setting up an integrated monitoring system that can also assess the project impacts, updating data and mapping the Aral Sea region using remote sensing For the sustainable cultivation of salt tolerant crops and economic development component we recommend: Appraising whether and how an economic development programme (WIRAM) can be initiated in Muniak District/the pre-aral region based on the pilot measures Preparing local/regional development plans to subsume the measures into overarching development plans stipulating visions for future development and priorities Assessing the location and activities so far, generally avoiding conveying the illusory impression in disintegrating villages that limited-period TC measures can trigger an economic upswing Analyzing economically viable production/processing and marketing opportunities tailored to the region Stepping up cooperation with other institutions and organizations in Karakalpakstan. Interdonor consultation is particularly important for economic development as the activities of a number of international and bilateral donors and NGOs already engaged in Karakalpakstan could be made more efficient through transparency and coordination. General conclusions The project is conceived as a prototype. Procedures and methods have been developed for the ecological stabilization of the desiccated Aral Sea bed and for the economic development of the pre-aral region which can be included as major elements in more comprehensive programmes. The measures for recultivating the desiccated Aral Sea bed are particularly interesting as replicable, economical approaches. Essential for a successful application to the whole of the Aral Sea bed is enlarging the scheme to encompass a more thoroughgoing ecological stabilization and the purposive promotion of natural regeneration capabilities and supportive recultivation. The economic development interventions point to ways of introducing appropriate, economically viable forms of land use with salt tolerant crops. To improve the critical poverty situation the previous range of measures must be enlarged to include livestock breeding, fruitgrowing and subsistence farming. In addition, jobs must be created outside agriculture. Intervention points for this have been indicated by pilot measures in processing and refining agricultural produce. To expand dissemination detailed locational and market analyses need to be conducted and the measures must be incorporated in broader regional development plans. Baseline data Project title: Recultivation of the desiccated Aral Sea bed and promotion of private agriculture Project start: April 2001

6 End of project: December 2004 Project expenditure: EUR 5,433,000 BMZ division in charge of project: Division 201 Project executing organization: GTZ Term of evaluation: 12 September to 2 October 2004 Evaluators Dr Hannelore Börgel (General development expert) Ms Ingrid Christian (Assistant expert consultant for agroeconomics) Prof. Dr Volker Kohler (Expert consultant for resource conservation and reporting coordinator)