Business Data and Charts 2014/2015. Plastics Europe Market Research Group (PEMRG) Claus-Jürgen Simon Carolina Hupfer Status: Dezember 2015

Transcription

1 Business Data and Charts 2014/2015 Plastics Europe Market Research Group (PEMRG) Claus-Jürgen Simon Carolina Hupfer Status: Dezember 2015

2 Contact: Claus-Jürgen Simon Carolina Hupfer Phone: + 49 (0) claus.simon@plasticseurope.org carolina.hupfer@plasticseurope.org This presentation contains forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and forecasts made by PlasticsEurope. The part of the monthly report is also based on official statistics by Eurostat and the European Commission. Various known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between the actual future results, financial situation, development or performance of the industry and the estimates given here. The association assumes no liability whatsoever to update these forwardlooking statements or to conform them to future events or developments. This charts may be used to accompany reports on PlasticsEurope and the Plastics Industry provided the source is mentioned. Commercial use and resale to third parties is prohibited. 2

3 The Crisis and Beyond Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increase compared to the previous month decrease compared to the previous month Global Crisis 2008/2009 Crisis in Eurozone April Feb no change compared to the previous month June North America and Europe continued to register solid expansions of production in November. Price pressures remained on the downside during 35 November, with both input prices and output charges Dec 2008 falling during the latest survey month Nov Output stagnated in China and Vietnam, and declined in Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia. A contraction was also signaled in Brazil. Source: J.P. Morgan, Markit Global Manufacturing Index 3

4 The Ifo World Economic Climate Indicator good/ better satisfactory/ about the same The assessment of the present situation deteriorates mainly because the downward trend in China is stronger than expected However, a small majority of the expectations are still optimistic Risks from political crises and internal economical problems in Emerging- Markets countries are high bad/ worse * Quarterly data Present Situation Business Expectations Source: Ifo World Economic Climate 4

5 BIP-Forecast Global GDP Growth Forecast European Union 4% 4% 3% 2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 2% 0% 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% * 2016* NAFTA 1% 0% * 2016* 4% 2% 0% 2.8% 2.0% 2.0% * 2016* Germany Asia 6% 4% 2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 6% 3% 5.0% 5.0% 5.5% 0% * 2016* 0% * 2016* Source: Eurostat, VCI, PlasticsEurope estimates for NAFTA and Asia Forecast date:

6 Global Economic Development: What s next? * 2016* World EU Germany France Spain Italy UK Poland Asia China Japan South Korea India America US Brazil The US economy remains the growth engine for the world in 2015 and The growth in China slows down. South and Latin America struggle with structural problems and the continuing weakness of the investment climate Structural adjustments in southern-european countries showed first positive effects in /16: Global GDP growth will be moderate again. Source: VCI estimation for 2015 and 2016, Plastics Europe estimation for Asia and America Forecast date:

7 Manufacturing production 2014 vs in selected countries Annual change in production index (2010=100); in % World average: Production in manufacturing grew again in most European countries. Poland grew at an above-average rate Brazil s production declined considerably Due to the economic sanctions the Russian manufacturing production stagnated The production growth in Asia was stable at a high level Source: FERI 7

8 Global Production of customer industries * Change in % 6 Annual change in production (2010=100) 2015: The global growth rates of customer industries slow down Reasons: The downshift of the Chinese economy The lower-than-expected growth of the US industry The ongoing recession in Russia and Brazil Remaining risks in the EU market Plastics Processors refers to plastics and rubber products Source: Chemdata, VCI estimation for 2015 and 2016 Forecast date:

9 World Plastics Production Mio t World 2002: : : : : ~ : ~ : 250 Plastics are a global success story. Continuous growth for more than 50 years. Plastics production ramped up from 1.5 Mio t in 1950 to ~311 Mio t in In 2014 global plastic s production grew by 3.8% compared to 2013 Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) from 1950 to 2014 is about 8.7% Includes Thermoplastics, Polyurethanes, Thermosets, Elastomers, Adhesives, Coatings and Sealants and PP-Fibers. Not included PET-, PA- and Polyacryl-Fibers Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) / Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 9

10 World Plastics Production Mio t World 1989: : : : ~ : ~ : : 200 Europe 2014: ~59 Plastics are a global success story. Continuous growth for more than 50 years. Plastics production ramped up from 1.5 Mio t in 1950 to ~311 Mio t in In 2014 global plastic s production grew by 3.8% compared to 2013 Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) from 1950 to 2014 is about 8.7% Includes Thermoplastics, Polyurethanes, Thermosets, Elastomers, Adhesives, Coatings and Sealants and PP-Fibers. Not included PET-, PA- and Polyacryl-Fibers Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) / Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 10

11 World Plastics Material Production 2014 by Regions Latin America 5% Rest of Asia 16% Japan 4% Middle East, Africa 7% NAFTA 19% Europe (WE + CEE) 20% Asia with the leading country China (26%) mean-while accounts for 47% of worldwide production. Europe and NAFTA are on a similar level each with a share of around 19%~20%. China 26% CIS 3% Due to the economic crisis, Europe lost global production shares. 260 Mio. t* *w/o Other Plastics (ncludes Thermosets, Elastomers, Adhesives, Coatings and Sealants and PP-Fibers. Not included PET-, PA- and Polyacryl-Fibers) = ~51 Mio t Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) / Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 11

12 World Plastics Production by Regions Rest of Asia 14% Latin America 5% Middle East, Africa 6% NAFTA 23% Rest of Asia 16% Latin America 5% Middle East, Africa 7% NAFTA 19% Asia with the leading country China (26%) mean-while accounts for more than 47% of worldwide production. Japan 6% China 21% CIS 2% Europe (WE + CEE) 22% Japan 4% China 26% CIS 3% Europe (WE + CEE) 20% Europe and NAFTA are on a similar level each with a share of around 19%~20% Mio. t* Mio. t* Within a few years, China has risen to the most important plastics producer. All other regions lost global production shares *w/o Other Plastics (ncludes Thermosets, Elastomers, Adhesives, Coatings and Sealants and PP-Fibers. Not included PET-, PA- and Polyacryl-Fibers), 2014 = ~51 Mio t Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) / Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 12

13 World Plastics Materials Demand 2014 by Types PC PA 1% 1% ABS, ASA, SAN 3% PS, EPS 7% PVC 16% PUR PET 6% 7% Other Thermopl. 4% PP 23% LDPE, LLDPE 17% HDPE 15% Polyolefins account for more than 55% of global Plastics Materials demand. PVC is the second largest resin type following Polyolefins. Standard Plastics (Polyolefins, PVC, PS & EPS, PET) account for approx. 85% of the total demand Mio. t* *w/o Other Plastics (ncludes Thermosets, Elastomers, Adhesives, Coatings and Sealants and PP-Fibers. Not included PET-, PA- and Polyacryl-Fibers) = ~51 Mio t Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) / Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 13

14 World Plastics Materials Demand Demand in Mio t by type of plastic 2013 in 2014 Mio t Growth p.a e PE-LD, PE-LLD % PE-HD % PP % PVC % PS % EPS % ABS, ASA, SAN, % PA 1) % PC % PET % PUR 2) 13.5 (16.3) 14.3 (17.0) 4.4% Other Thermoplastics % Total ~250 ~ % 1) Fibres not included, only molding compounds 2) Including MDI, TDI, Polyol and Isocyanate Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) / Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 14

15 World Plastics Materials Demand e Demand in Mio t by type of plastic 1990 Mio t 2014 Mio t 2019e Mio t Growth p. a e PE-LD, PE-LLD % PE-HD % PP % PVC % PS % EPS % ABS, ASA, SAN % PA 1) % PC % PET % PUR 2) 4.6 (5.0) 14.3 (17.0) 18.1 (21.5) 4.8% Other Thermoplastics % Total ~83.6 ~260 ~ % e = best estimate 1) Fibres not included, only molding compounds 2) Including MDI, TDI, Polyol and Isocyanate Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) / Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 15

16 World Thermoplastics Demand e Standard Plastics PET* EPS Engineering Plastics HP-Polymers PBT, PET** In the recent past growth of Engineering Plastics strongly outpaced the growth of Standard Plastics The growth difference has nearly disappeared in the last few years PS PVC LDPE, LLDPE HDPE Ø Growth PC POM PA Ø Growth PP ABS, SAN CARG (%) *PET Bottle grade **PET Injection grade Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) / Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 16

17 World Thermoplastics Demand by Types 2014 Standard Plastics Engineering Plastics Standard Plastics dominate the global market in tones PP 26.6% PS; EPS 8.2% PET* 8.5% HDPE 18.0% ABS, SAN 35.4% POM 5.3% PBT, PET** 6.2% Others 10.3% Blends 11.6% Only 10 percent of the globally demanded plastics are Engineering plastics Polyolefins are the largest product group. Polyethylene: 35% Polypropylene: 24% LDPE, LLDPE 20.4% PVC 18.3% PC 17.0% PA 14.1% 221 Mio. t ~ 24.3 Mio. t *PET Bottle grade **PET Injection grade Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) / Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 17

18 World Benchmark Plastics / Steel billion litre Plastics Plastics in 1989, passed steel production by volume Plastics production > Steel production Global Production 2014 : Plastics: 311 Mio t = 311 billion litre Steel* Steel: 1,662 Mio t = 208 billion litre 50 Calculation Model: 1 kg plastics = 1 litre 8 kg steel = 1 litre Source: Stahl-Zentrum/International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI), PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) / Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 18

19 Thermoplastics Classification 2014 Triangle of Thermoplastics by Structure, Capability and Price Standard Plastics include Polyolefins, PS, EPS, PVC and PET (Bottle grade). 150 C Capability by Temperature Index by Underwriter Laboratories, USA High Performance Polymers TI > 150 C Engineering Thermoplastics TI = C PI PAI PEI PES PSU PPE mod. PC PMMA PA 11 PA 12 ABS, SAN, ASA PEEK FP LCP PPS PPA PA 46 PET (Injection) PBT POM PA 6 PA 66 > 10,000 EUR/ton > 4,000 EUR/ton > 2,000 EUR/ton Engineering Plastics with improved performance at higher costs. High Performance Polymers permitting exceptional end-useapplications, specialized niche products at high costs. 100 C Standard Plastics EPS PS PET (Bottle grade) PVC PP HDPE LDPE LLDPE amorphous structure semi-crystalline structure Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) / Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 19

20 Thermoplastics Classification 2014 Triangle of Thermoplastics Classified by Market Share High Performance Polymers Engineering Plastics Standard Thermoplastics PS & EPS 7.4% PET 7.7% PP 24.0% <1% (< 1 Mio t) ~10% (~24.3 Mio t) ~90% (~221 Mio t) Standard Plastics are the basics materials. Polyolefins are the largest product group. Polyethylene: 35% Polypropylene: 24% Engineering Plastics are a small but valuable part of the market. High Performance Polymers are specialized for very demanding applications. PE 34.6% PVC 16.5% Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) / Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 20

21 EU 28 Plastics Industry Structure 2014e Number of Companies Number of Employees Total Turnover ~ 62,000 ~1,450,000 ~354 billion 53,0001) 12 bn 9901) Plastics Machinery 1) 59,011 1,275, bn Plastics Processing Industry 2, ,646 92,6 bn Plastics Producing Industry ) Most actual data for 2013, no data for 2014 available Source: Eurostat, PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG), VDMA 21

22 EU 28 Public Finance and Welfare 2014 Income Tax and Social Security Costs 20.7 bn Corporate Tax 6.4 bn Generating about 27,1 billion euros for public finance and welfare, the European Plastics Industry is a pillar of economics and society ~ 27.1 bn Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) / Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 22

23 Europe Importance of the plastics sector Machinery 12% Automotive and transport equipment 13% Food and Beverages 13% Textil 1% Chemical industry 7% The European plastics industry contributes 5 percent of the European industrial value added Total industry value added at factor cost: 1,650 billion. Euros Electro industry 11% Pharmaceutical industry 5% Plastics industry* 5% Mineral products 4% Other 15% Metal industry 14% *Includes Plastics Producer, Converter and Machinery; measured by gross value added at factor prices; 2012 Source: Eurostat, PlastcisEurope 23

24 EU 28 Development of Sales Sales (bn. Euro) Plastics Producing: Sales: -0.5% in 2014 Plastics Processing: Sales: +3.9% in Total Sales 2014 Sales: 342 bn Plastics Producing Plastics Processing Source: Eurostat, PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) 24

25 EU 28 Development of Employment in 1000 Plastics Producing: Employees: +1.7% in '349 1'200 1'240 1'280 1'250 1'254 1'276 Plastics Processing: Employees: 1.6% in Total Workforce 2014 Employees: 1.4 million Plastics Producing Plastics Processing Source: Eurostat, PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) 25

26 Europe Plastics Demand by Countries in 2014 Austria Belgium/Lux. Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus/Malta Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom Norway Switzerland k tonnes Demand Europe 2014: ~47.8 Mio t (+2.6% compared to 2013) Demand Europe Mio t Germany, Italy, France, Spain and UK covers ~64% of the European Market. Plastics demand in Western European countries increased by ~2.4%, while demand in Central European countries rose by ~4.0% in Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) & in Cooperation with Eastern and Central European Business Development (ECEBD)/ Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 26

27 Europe Plastics Demand by Resin Types 2014 PE-LD, -LLD PE-HD, -MD PP PS PS-E PVC PET ABS, SAN PMMA PA PCS Other ETP PUR Others in tons Demand Europe 2014: ~47.8 Mio t demand increased by 2.6% WE: 40.4 Mio t (+2.4%) CE: 7.4 Mio t (+4.0%) Demand Europe Mio t Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) - for Central Europe in cooperation with my CEPPI and Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 27

28 Europe Plastics Demand by Resin Types 2014 PE-LD, -LLD PE-HD, -MD PP PS in tons Development 2014 vs (-/+) 0.8% 0.6% 2.9% 4.2% Demand Europe 2014: ~47.8 Mio t demand increased by 2.6% WE: 40.4 Mio t (+2.4%) CE: 7.4 Mio t (+4.0%) PS-E PVC -0.9% 0.7% Demand Europe Mio t PET 2.5% ABS, SAN 6.4% PMMA 3.1% PA 3.8% PCS 2.0% Other ETP 3.8% PUR 3.8% Others 4.0% Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) - for Central Europe in cooperation with my CEPPI and Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 28

29 Europe Plastics Demand by Segments 2014 E&E 6% Others 26% Automotive 9% Building & Construction 20% 47.8 Mio t Packaging 40% Packaging and Building & Construction by far represent the largest enduse markets. The third biggest end-use market is the Automotive Industry. E & E accounts for 5.4%. Others includes consumer, agriculture, household, appliances, furniture, medical, etc. Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) & in Cooperation with Eastern and Central European Business Development (ECEBD)/ Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 29

30 Europe Plastics Demand by Segments 2014 Demand total: 47.8 Mio t Packaging 40 % Building & Construction 20 % Automotive 9 % E&E 6 % Others 26 % PE-LD, PE-HD, PP PS PS-E PVC PET ABS, PMMA PA PCS Other PUR Others -LLD -MD SAN Eng. Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) & in Cooperation with Eastern and Central European Business Development (ECEBD)/ Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 30

31 Europe Plastics Demand by Countries in 2014 Others 21% Germany 25% Demand Europe 2014: ~47.8 Mio t (+2.6% to 2013) Demand Europe Mio t Netherlands 4% Belgium/Lux. 5% Germany, Italy, France, Spain and UK covers ~64% of the European Market. Poland 6% Spain 7% United Kingdom 8% France 10% Italy 14% Plastics demand in Western European countries increased by ~2.4%, while demand in Central European countries rose by 4.0% in Mio t Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) & in Cooperation with Eastern and Central European Business Development (ECEBD)/ Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 31

32 Europe Plastics Demand by Countries in 2014 Spain 9% Demand by Western Europe Netherlands 5% Others 14% Germany 30% Bulgaria 5% Slovakia 6% Romania 10% Demand by Central Europe Others 13% Poland 41% The main consumer of plastics in primary forms are still located in Western Europe states steadily increasing enquiries from the Central European markets Poland is an important market for Plastics producer France 11% Italy 17% Hungary 10% Czech Republic 15% 40.4 Mio. t 7.4 Mio. t Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) & in Cooperation with Eastern and Central European Business Development (ECEBD)/ Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 32

33 Europe Plastics Demand by Segments in 2014 Demand Western by Western Europe Europe Others 26% E&E 5% Automotive 8% Building & Const. 20% Packaging 40% Demand Cental by Western Europe Europe Others 25% E&E 8% Automotive 11% Building & Const. 21% Packaging 35% The main segmentation of the consumer market is comparable in Central and Western Europe As a consumer industry packaging plays an even bigger role in Western Europe, while the automotive industry is more important in Central Europe 40.4 Mio. t Mio. t t Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) & in Cooperation with Eastern and Central European Business Development (ECEBD)/ Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 33

34 Europe Plastics Demand in Mio. kg During the economical crisis 2008/2009 the demand dropped strongly by more than 15 percent compared to The demand has not yet reached the pre-crisis level Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) & in Cooperation with Eastern and Central European Business Development (ECEBD)/ Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 34

35 Export Markets of the European Plastics Materials Industry* 2014 Latin America 2% NAFTA 3% Asia 9% Others 3% The main export market of the European Plastics Producing Industry is Europe itself. Thus, the slow economic recovery and the increasing insecurities due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis in Europe hit the plastics producers especially hard. Europe 84% *EU 28 Exports of Primary Plastics Source: Eurostat 35

36 Europe Plastics Demand for Packaging Local Demand** Demand by Polymers The European demand for Packaging was approx. 18,000 kt in in 1000 kt 18.6 In 2013, the demand grew by 1.3 percent compared to the previous year PS + PS-E 6% PET 17% Others* 6% PE-LD, LLD 33% The main polymers used for packaging are polyethylene, followed by polypropylene PP 20% PE-HD 18% approx kt *Others: PVC, ABS, SAN, ASA, PMMA, PA, PCS, PUR, other Plastics; ** in EU28 Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) 36

37 European Union (EU28) Plastics Industry Production Production Index (2010 = 100, Trend cycle data) Plastics Industry Production trend by long term view ( ): Long time series shows strong growth for production of Primary Plastics and Plastics Products during the 1990 s and a more sideways development from 2000 to Plastics Machinery shows a more fluctuating development in long-term view Plastics in Primary Forms Manufacture of Plastics Products Plastics Machinery Actual data status of Production: 10/2015 After strong growth in all the three segments in 2006 and more constant development in 2007, the effects of the economical crisis are clearly recognizable in 2008 and first half of Economic recovery in all three segments lasted from mid 2009 to first half of Until the end of 2014, production quantities did not increase significantly. Source: Eurostat / PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) Issue December 23, 2015 / Expiration / Slide 4

38 European Union (EU28) Plastics Industry Production 140 Production Index (2010 = 100, Trend cycle data) Plastics in Primary Forms Manufacture of Plastics Products Plastics Machinery Index - Last 12 months (2010 = 100, Seasonally adjusted data) Plastics Industry Production by short-term view (last 12 months): Primary Plastics production quantities had been on a high level in July and August 2015, but decreased in September and October. Plastics Products production quantities showed just minor ups and downs during the last 12 months. Plastics Machinery production develops more volatile in general. Nevertheless, from May to September 2015 production quantities remained on a clearly lower level compared to the months before. 90 Plastics in Primary Forms Manufacture of Plastics Products Plastics Machinery 80 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Source: Eurostat / PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) Issue December 23, 2015 / Expiration / Slide 5

39 European Union (EU28) Plastics Industry Production Production Index (working day adjusted) Sectors Oct 15 Jan - Oct 15 Oct 15 Jan - Oct 15 Index 2010 = 100 y-o-y (%) Primary Plastics Plastics Products Plastics Machinery Production Index (seasonally adjusted) Sectors Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Change in % against previous month Primary Plastics Plastics Products Plastics Machinery After the time period from January to October 2015, production quantities in the Primary Plastics sector had been 3.0% lower compared to the same period in While July and August 2015 each showed slightly growing tendencies, September and October 2015 recorded decreasing tendencies. On the other hand, with +2.1%, production of Plastics Products from January to October 2015 was on a higher level compared to The Plastics Machinery segment recorded high output quantities in January and April 2015, but lower quantities in the following months. Total production after ten months in 2015 was slightly below (-0.8%) the level of Source: Eurostat / PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) Issue December 23, 2015 / Expiration / Slide 6

40 European Union (EU28) Manufacturing of Plastics Products Manufacture of Plastics Products Packaging Others For the classification of the segments, see under "Definitions" on last page Actual data status of Production: 10/2015 Index (2010 = 100, Trend cycle) Plastic plates, sheets, tubes and profiles Builders From 2002 to 2005 production quantities of the Plastics Products sub-categories remained on a stable level and 2007 showed clearly increasing production quantities, before the effects of the economical crisis are clearly recognizable in 2008 and first half of From mid 2009 to end of 2010 main segments of Plastics Products, except "Builders", have recovered strongly after the deep recession and 2012 showed slightly decreasing trends for most of the Plastics Products sub-categories, followed by a growth in 2013 and a stable development in Source: Eurostat / PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) Issue December 23, 2015 / Expiration / Slide 7

41 European Union (EU28) Manufacturing of Plastics Products Production Index (working day adjusted) Sectors Oct 15 Jan - Oct 15 Oct 15 Jan - Oct 15 Plastics Products Plates, Sheets, Tubes and Profiles Packaging Builders Others Production Index (seasonally adjusted) Index 2010 = 100 y-o-y (%) Sectors Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Change in % against previous month Plastics Products Plates, Sheets, Tubes and Profiles Compared to 2014, total production quantities of Plastics Products from January to October 2015 had only been lower in the Builders segment. The other segments ( Plastics Packaging as well as Plates, Sheets, Tubes and Profiles and Other Plastics Products ) had been on a higher level compared to the same period in In July to August 2015, monthover-month comparison of production indices showed just minor changes for Plastics Products in total. September and October 2015 recorded slightly increasing tendencies. Packaging Builders Others Source: Eurostat / PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) Issue December 23, 2015 / Expiration / Slide 8

42 European Union (EU28) GDP, Chemical and Plastics Industry bn Euro GDP real - seasonally adjusted, at 2010 prices, quarterly Manufacturing, Chemical and Plastics Industry Index, Jan'06=100 - Trend cycle, monthly Plastics Products Chemical Industry Manufacturing Primary Plastics Plastics Machinery Actual data status: Q3/2015 Based on actual Eurostat data, the EU28 GDP increased by 1.4% in 2014, after stagnation (+0.2%) in 2013 and a 0.5% decline in For the third quarter of 2015, quarterly GDP data by Eurostat indicates another 0.4% growth compared to the second quarter. Actual GDP growth estimations for the EU28, published by the European Commission: 2015: +1.9%; 2016: +2.0% Actual data status of Production: 10/2015 Uptrend in total Manufacturing and Chemical Industry especially in 2009 and After slightly decreasing tendencies in 2011 and 2012, slight upward trends had been recorded for both of the industry segments in The year 2014 and the first ten months of 2015 showed more stable production tendencies. The Primary Plastics segment showed a slightly decreasing production tendency in 2014 and beginning of 2015, while Plastics Products production remained more stable in total. Source: Eurostat / European Commission / PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) Issue December 23, 2015 / Expiration / Slide 9

43 European Union (EU28) Plastics Customer Industries - Part I Index, Jan'06= Manufacturing, Automotive, Electrical Machinery (Trend cycle, monthly) Manufacturing Electrical Machinery Automotive Actual data status of Production: 10/2015 The Manufacturing Industry in the EU28 countries slightly decreased in 2011 and 2012, but increased in A slight uptrend had been recorded at the end of 2014, while months from January to October 2015 remained very stable. The Automotive Industry recorded clearly growing production quantities during After a slight slowdown in mid 2014, production continued to grow until October After three years with primarily decreasing production tendencies in the Electrical Machinery Industry, a slight upward trend had been recorded during 2014 and the beginning of After ten months in 2015, industrial production activity in the EU28 manufacturing industry still remains below the pre-crisis level from Source: Eurostat / PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) Issue December 23, 2015 / Expiration / Slide 10

44 European Union (EU28) Plastics Customer Industries - Part II Index, Jan'06= Manufacturing, Construction, Food and Beverages (Trend cycle, monthly) The Construction Industry in the EU28 recorded a continuously decreasing trend from 2008 to In the second half of 2013, a slight upward trend had been recorded, followed by a stagnating tendency since the beginning of The Food and Beverages Industry was less hit by the recession than other industries and develops very stable in long-term view Manufacturing Construction Food and Beverages Actual data status of Production: 10/2015 Source: Eurostat / PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) Issue December 23, 2015 / Expiration / Slide 11

45 European Union (EU28) Plastics Customer Industries - Part III Production Index (working day adjusted) Sectors Oct 15 Jan - Oct 15 Oct 15 Jan - Oct 15 Index 2010 = 100 y-o-y (%) Manufacturing Electrical Machinery Automotive Construction Food & Beverages Production Index (seasonally adjusted) Sectors Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Change in % against previous month Manufacturing Electrical Machinery Automotive After the time period from January to October 2015, production quantities of the Electrical Machinery Industry (+2.6%) as well as in the Automotive Industry (+6.8%) had been on a clearly higher level compared to the same period in Output of the Construction Industry from January to October 2015 was slightly above the level of the previous year (+0.9%) and remains on a relatively low level in total. Month-over-month comparison of seasonally adjusted production indices showed slightly increasing tendencies for the total Manufacturing segment in July and October Construction Food & Beverages Source: Eurostat / PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) Issue December 23, 2015 / Expiration / Slide 12

46 European Union (EU28) Trade Primary Plastics Trends in EU28 Trade with Primary Plastics (Mio tons, Trend cycle, monthly) EU28 Total Exports (Intra+Extra EU) EU28 Total Imports (Intra+Extra EU) EU28 Extra Exports (Extra EU) EU28 Extra Imports (Extra EU) Actual data status of EU28 Trade: 08/2015 (data for September 2015 not yet available by December 22nd, 2015) Intra EU Trade: Trade between the Member States of the European Union Extra EU Trade: Trade of the European Union with Non-Member Countries From mid 2011 to August 2015, total Import quantities of Primary Plastics showed a very slightly but continuously increasing trend. Total Export quantities of Primary Plastics showed a growth from the beginning of 2013 until the beginning of From January to August 2015, the share of Primary Plastics Exports to Non-EU countries (25.8%) was below the level of the years Also the share of Imports from Non- EU countries (15.9%) was slightly lower compared to the years 2013 and Extra EU Trade - Primary Plastics Share in Total (%) Year Exports Imports YTD Source: Eurostat / PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) Issue December 23, 2015 / Expiration / Slide 13

47 European Union (EU28) Trade Plastics Products Trends in EU28 Trade with Plastics Products (Mio tons, Trend cycle, monthly) Actual data status of EU28 Trade: 08/2015 (data for September 2015 not yet available by December 22nd, 2015) Intra EU Trade: Trade between the Member States of the European Union Extra EU Trade: Trade of the European Union with Non-Member Countries EU28 Total Exports (Intra+Extra EU) EU28 Total Imports (Intra+Extra EU) EU28 Extra Exports (Extra EU) EU28 Extra Imports (Extra EU) While Import quantities of Plastics Products remain more or less stable since the beginning of 2014, total Export quantities showed an increasing trend until the first quarter of From January to August 2015, the share of Plastics Products Exports to Non-EU countries (21.1%) was below the level of the years On the other hand, the share of Imports from Non-EU countries showed an increasing tendency over the last years and exceeded 17% after the time period from January to August Extra EU Trade - Plastics Products Share in Total (%) Year Exports Imports YTD Source: Eurostat / PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) Issue December 23, 2015 / Expiration / Slide 14

48 European Union (EU28) Trade Balance with Non-Member Countries (+ Surplus, - Deficit) EU28 Plastics Industry: Trade Balance with Non-Member Countries (Mio tons, Trend cycle, monthly) Primary Plastics Trade Balance (Extra EU) Plastics Products Trade Balance (Extra EU) Last years showed a quite volatile trend for the Primary Plastics trade surplus. The trade surplus of the EU28 Primary Plastics Industry in 2014 exceeded the level of In the last years, the Plastics Products trade surplus varied just slightly around a level of 0.9 to 1.0 Mio. tons, but fell below this range in 2014 with around 0.8 Mio. tons Actual data status of EU28 Trade: 08/2015 (data for September 2015 not yet available by December 22nd, 2015) Extra EU28 Trade Balance (Mio tons) (+ Surplus, - Deficit) Year Primary Plastics Plastics Products YTD Source: Eurostat / PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) Issue December 23, 2015 / Expiration / Slide 15

49 European Union (EU28) Outlook Manufacturing of Plastics Products balance in % Balance of positive and negative answers, seasonally adjusted (+ increasing production, 0 remain unchanged, - decreasing production) Production trend observed in recent months became slightly weaker over the course of 2014, but increased again in mid The latest November 2015 index remains positive. The business outlook for the months ahead (production expectations) remained positive in 2014 and 2015 so far. The November 2015, the index (+15) remains on a high level Production expectations for the months ahead (3-6 months) Production trend observed in recent months Actual data status: 11/2015 The business surveys includes the EU28 Plastics Products Industry (incl. Rubber). Production Expectations l balance in % Dec Jan Feb 15 6 Mar 15 9 Apr 15 9 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Source: Eurostat / PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) Issue December 23, 2015 / Expiration / Slide 16

50 European Union (EU28) Plastics Industry Producer Prices Index (2010 = 100, Monthly) Plastics in Primary Forms Plastics Products Plastics Machinery After a decrease of Primary Plastics prices at the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015, prices grew again until July During the following months, prices recorded a decreasing tendency again. During 2013 and 2014 prices for Plastics Products remained very stable. Time period from April to October 2015 recorded a slightly growing price tendency. Plastics Machinery prices developed more or less stable during 2012 and The year 2014 recorded some diverging tendencies on a high level. In 2015, the price index reached another peak in October Producer Prices: Total Output Prices (Domestic Market + Foreign Market) Actual data status for Producer Prices: 10/2015 Source: Eurostat / PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) Issue December 23, 2015 / Expiration / Slide 17

51 European Union (EU28) Plastics Industry Producer Prices Producer price index (cumulative) Sectors Oct 15 Jan - Oct 15 Oct 15 Jan - Oct 15 Index 2005 = 100 y-o-y (%) Primary Plastics Plastics Products Plastics Machinery Producer Prices: Total Output Prices (Domestic Market + Foreign Market) Producer price index (monthly) Sectors Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Change in % against previous month Primary Plastics Plastics Products Plastics Machinery Primary Plastics Compared to 2014, Primary Plastics prices from January to October 2015 had been 2.1% lower. Plastics Products In total, Plastics Products prices from January to October 2015 had been on a slightly lower level (-0.2%) compared to the same period in Month-over-month comparison of price indices showed growing tendencies in July and August 2015, but slightly decreasing tendencies in September and October. Plastics Machinery In total, Plastics Machinery prices from January to October 2015 recorded an increase of 3.4% compared to Month-overmonth comparison showed just slight changes in July, August and September 2015, followed by a 1.7% increase in October. Source: Eurostat / PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG) Issue December 23, 2015 / Expiration / Slide 18

52 Plastics Industry Examples of Restructuring, M&A EVA ASE Borealis (AT) acquired joint venture partner DuPont s (US) shares of Speciality Polymers Antwerp NV. Speciality Polymers Antwerp NV will continue to supply DuPont with EVA and copolymers of acrylates. PVC Vestolit (D) was taken over by Mexichem (MX). The acquisition highlights Mexichem s strategy to become a integrated worldwide provider of PVC products. Vestolit will be managed in Germany. PVC Ineos (CH) and Doeflex Compounding (UK) merged their PVC-compound activities. The cooperative venture operates under the name Ineos Compounds and produces in UK, Switzerland and Sweden. PPS Solvay (BE) acquired Chevron Phillips Chemical s Ryton polyphenylsulphone (PPS) segment. The business will be fully consolidated in Solvay s business unit Specialty Polymers. Additive In the wake of the realigned corporate strategy, Lanxess (D) merged the additive activities in the corporate division Rhein Chemie Additives and integrated Keltan Elastomers in the business unit High Performance Elastomers Source: Plastics Europe; Kunststoffweb 52

53 Competitiveness - Oxford Economics Oxford Economics and the European Chemical Industry Council (cefic) started the project in 2013 October 2014, the final report was released The purpose was to evaluate the competitiveness of the European chemical sector compared to other countries since 1991 Identify the main drivers behind competitiveness and their influence Polymers, as a major sub-sector of the chemical industry, was also analyzed 53

54 Competitiveness - Oxford Economics The European chemical sector is the seconded-largest global chemical sector worldwide ( 527 billion in sales 2013) The majority of the decrease in extra-eu export market share of the EU chemical sector observed over the last 20 years is due to declining competitiveness China, Saudi Arabia and India became equal competitors. Europe s decline of competitiveness is lager than that of the USA in the chemical sector Polymers and Petrochemicals lost more competitiveness than any other chemical industry sector or sub-sector There are political and economic reasons for the decrease in export market share, such as high energy costs, lagging innovations, currency appreciation, high labor costs, regulatory and tax burdens 54

55 Drivers of chemical competitiveness For the whole industry statistically significant relationships between the changes in competitiveness and energy prices, R&D, investment and labor costs were identified. Statistical relationship; + = positive influence; - = negative influence; quantity = statistically significance; / = statistically insignificant Energy price R&D/ Innovation short-term R&D/ Innovation long-term Sector investment Labor cost Chemical industry --- / Basic inorganics / / - Petrochemicals Polymers -- / / Specialty chemicals Consumer chemicals / ++ / + - Pharmaceutical industry / Plastics products Source: Oxford Economics, Haver Analytics, Cefic 55

56 Europe (EU 28) Competiveness of Polymer Industry Europe lost export market share, due to losses of competitiveness Since 2003 the European polymers could profit from a positive structural effect Nevertheless, the global export market share diminish from 17% in the early 2000s to 13% in 2012 Reasons for the ebbing competitiveness are lower feedstock and energy prices in US and Saudi- Arabia Source: Oxford Economics, Haver Analytics, Cefic 56

57 Europe (EU 28) Competiveness of Polymer Production Over all three periods polymers lost export market share due to ebbing competitiveness. Since the crisis, this trend gains momentum Only Petrochemicals lost more export competitiveness Source: Oxford Economics, Haver Analytics, Cefic 57

58 Europe (EU 28) Competiveness of Plastics Products 1991, the European export market share for plastics products was 22%. Until 2012 only 14.8 % were left Growing demand outside of Europe explains the positive structural effect since 2000 As well as polymers, plastics products suffer from lower feedstock and energy prices outside Europe Source: Oxford Economics, Haver Analytics, Cefic 58

59 Europe (EU 28) Competiveness of Plastics Products Similar development as polymers Loses of export competitiveness since the early 90s Positive structural effect since The effect lessened after the crisis started Source: Oxford Economics, Haver Analytics, Cefic 59

60 Drivers of Competiveness Natural gas prices The shale gas boom in the US has opened up a wide gap in natural gas costs relative else where in the world US prices are now just one-third of European levels Japan is in a worse situation, because the reduction of nuclear energy capacity in the wake of the Fukushima disaster has dramatically increased demand for fossil-fuelbased electricity generation. Source: Oxford Economics, Haver Analytics, Cefic 60

61 Drivers of Competiveness R&D spending There has been a secular decline in chemical sector R&D intensity over the past 20 years in the developed world, although patterns in individual countries vary But perhaps the most surprising trend is China, where R&D intensity increases dramatically in the early 2000s as China entered the WTO Source: Oxford Economics, Haver Analytics, Cefic 61

62 Drivers of Competiveness Business regulatory burden, 2013 The EU still has a heavier burden than all other major countries except Brazil. The US regulatory burden has become heavier over the past seven years Source: Oxford Economics, Haver Analytics, Cefic 62

63 Europe (EU ) Recovery of Plastics Waste 2014 Plastic Post-Consumer Waste Treatment in Europe 2014 Post-Consumer Waste 25,832 kt (100%) Recovery 17,872 kt (69.2%) Disposal 7,960 kt (30.8%) Recovery Rate: 69.2% (63.5% / 59.6% / 57,7% / 54,3%)*** Recycling Rate 29.6% (27.6% / 25.1% / 24,3% / 22,7%)*** - Mechanical Recycling 29.3% (27.3% /24.8% / 24,0% / 22,5%)*** Energy recovery 10,215 kt (39.5%) Recycling 7,657 kt (29.6%) Landfill 7,932 kt (30.7%) Incineration without EfW** ~ 29 kt (0.1%) - Feedstock Recycling 0.4% (0.3% / 0.3% / 0,3% / 0,3%)*** Energy Recovery 39.5% (35.9% / 34.5% / 33,5% / 31,5%)*** Disposal Rate: 30.8% (36.5% / 40.4% / 42,3% / 45,7%)*** MSWI ~6,534 kt (25.3%) RDF/SRF* ~3,681 kt (14.2%) Mechanical recycling 7,560 kt (29.3%) Feedstock recycling 97 kt (0.4%) Source: Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 63

64 Europe (EU ) Recovery of Plastics Waste 2014 Countries with landfill ban Switzerland Austria Netherlands Germany Sweden Luxembourg Denmark Belgium Norway Ireland Finland Estonia Slovenia France Portugal Italy UK Slovakia Czechia Lithuania Spain Poland Hungary Romania Latvia Croatia Bulgaria Greece Cyprus Malta 24.5% 28.0% 30.3% 37.9% 37.8% 28.5% 33.7% 31.2% 39.7% 37.2% 20.1% 34.1% 34.3% 21.3% 32.7% 27.0% 28.6% 30.9% 36.9% 24.6% 33.7% 25.5% 21.4% 26.0% 28.1% 24.2% 18.8% 20.0% 18.1% 13.8% 24.4% 20.2% 18.1% 13.8% 82.5% 81.9% 77.0% 69.4% 63.6% 60.5% 59.9% 59.2% 55.8% 54.6% 49.8% 49.6% 44.1% 42.9% 40.8% 32.5% 28.0% Overall recovery ratio by weight for EU 28+2: 69.2% (referred to Post- Consumer Plastic Waste) 99.8% 99.6% 99.2% 99.1% 98.4% 97.8% 97.6% 97.0% 96.3% 9 countries in Europe reached a recovery ratio of more than 95% of the Post-consumer Plastic Waste. These countries have a landfill ban. Also 6 of these countries are amongst the 11 countries with the highest recycling rates (>30%). Therefore divert from landfill boosts higher recovery and recycling quantities, also of waste streams, which have not been recovered so far. Recycling Energy recovery 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 64

65 Europe (EU ) Recovery of Plastics Waste 2014 Total plastics waste and recovery Development CAGR CAGR Development 2014 vs Mio. t 25 Mio. t Total Waste Generation +0.6% +2.1% 20 Mio. t 17.9 Recovery +5.5% +6.3% 15 Mio. t Recycling +6.4% 10 Mio. t 5 Mio. t 0 Mio. t Energy Recovery Disposal/ Landfill +4.8% -5.8% -10% 0% 10% +6.7% -10% 0% 10% In the period the analysis of waste generation shows a slight growth. Besides economical impacts, plastic parts with lower weight (e.g. plastic bottles) play a significant role in that process. After the economical crisis, the waste quantity rose from 2009 to 2014 by about 1.7 mill. tons during the last five years. While disposal quantities decreased by ~4.9 million tons in the last eight years, recovery quantities rose by 6.2 mio. tons up to 17.9 mio. tons. Source: Consultic Marketing & Industrieberatung GmbH 65

66 Europe (EU ) Recovery of Plastics Waste 2014 Others (Furniture etc.) 3,597 14% Agriculture 1,357 5% House wares, Leisure, Sports etc % WEEE 1,291 5% Automotive 1,256 5% Building/ Construction 1,458 6% Total post-consumer plastic waste by application EU Packaging Building/ Construction Automotive WEEE House wares, Leisure, Sports etc. Agriculture Others (Furniture etc.) Packaging 15,949 62% The chart shows the total generation of post-consumer plastic waste by substantial applications for 28 EU countries + Norway and Switzerland. The total volume of available post-consumer waste arising in 2014 was about 25.8 million tons, compared to 24.8 million in In terms of waste generation packaging with a share of ~62 % remains the largest plastics waste fraction in the European countries by far, followed by Building and Construction, Automotive, WEEE and Agriculture with shares between 5-6%. 66

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68 Definitions (1) Western Europe (WE) Central Europe (CE) Standard Plastics Engineering Plastics PUR Thermoplastics Plastic Materials Plastics Elastomers Fibres Synthetic Polymers Polymers EU15 + CH + N ( + Malta + Cyprus) EU 10 ( - Malta - Cyprus) + Romania + Bulgaria PE, PP, PVC, PS, EPS, PET (Bottle grade) ABS, SAN, PA, PC, PBT, POM, PMMA, Blends, Others incl. High Performance Polymers Polyurethanes Standard Plastics + Engineering Plastics Standard Plastics + Engineering Plastics + PUR Plastic Materials + Others (Thermosets, Adhesives, Coatings, Sealants) Synthetic Elastomers (SBR, IR, IIR, BR, NBR, CR, Others) PA, Polyester, Acrylic, Other Synthetic Fibres Plastic Materials + Fibres + Elastomers + Others (Thermosets, Adhesives, Coatings, Sealants) Primary Plastics + Chemical Fibres + Rubber 68