ICDD MA/MSc Thesis Research Grant Programme Field Research Report. Roman Hinz, Master s programme: Sustainability Management and Economics

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1 ICDD MA/MSc Thesis Research Grant Programme Field Research Report Roman Hinz, Master s programme: Sustainability Management and Economics Place of the Field Research: Bangalore, India Time Period: February, March and April 2017 Topic of the Master s thesis: Analysis of potential conflicts between Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in India Supervisors: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Rüdiger Schaldach (University of Kassel, Center for Environmental Systems Research) Prof. Dr. Astrid Dannenberg (University of Kassel, Department of Environmental and Behavioral Economics) Abstract In order to ensure food security in the future, agricultural systems will have to respond to global changes such as population growth, changing dietary habits or climate change. However, alterations of how food is produced in the future may conflict with other important sustainable development issues such as the protection of biodiversity and carbon storage. In a case study for India scenarios are combined with a land-use simulation model (LandSHIFT) to specify and quantify trajectories of land-use change until Biodiversity impacts are calculated based on a combined approach by Scholes and Biggs (2005), Alkemade et al. (2009) and Jenkins et al. (2013) while for the analysis of carbon gains or losses the empirical model proposed by the European Renewable Energy Directive is applied. During a three months field stay in Bangalore, a set of four plausible country-specific scenarios for India were developed (adapted from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSPs). Participants of the scenario development process (through stakeholder workshops) included actors coming from sectors like policy, academia, agriculture or non-government and civil society organizations. Furthermore, the scenario quantification process and assessment implementation procedure, as well as the interpretation of first results, was carried out in close cooperation with scientists from the Centre for Ecological Economics and Natural Resources (CEENR) Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC). 1

2 Aim of the Field Research In order to ensure food security in the future, agricultural systems will have to respond to global changes such as population growth, changing dietary habits or climate change (Godfray and Garnett 2014). However, alterations of how food is produced in the future may conflict with other important sustainable development issues such as the protection of biodiversity and carbon storage. For example, agricultural land expansion into natural vegetation areas and management intensification on existing arable lands lead to declining qualities of habitat's ecological functions for many species. In addition, e.g. forest clearing dynamics are changing the amount of carbon stocks in vegetation and soils, thus influencing the future climate (Gilroy et al. 2014). In the context of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, decision-makers now have to understand these conflicts in such a way that they can improve the balance between the different demands on providing food for all and everywhere (SDG 2) and environmental protection (here: SDG 13 and 15) (Nilsson et al. 2016; UN 2016; Obersteiner et al. 2016; ICSU 2017). Therefore, the aim of this thesis is to analyze possible future land-use and land-cover changes due to increasing demands for food and their impacts on terrestrial biodiversity and carbon storage. In my master s thesis I use the scenario technique (e.g. assumptions concerning future socioeconomic developments and climate change) (Alcamo 2001) in combination with simulation models (LandSHIFT) (Schaldach et al. 2011) to specify and quantify trajectories of land-use change until The analyzed system is the South Asian country India. During a three months field stay in Bangalore, the aim was to establish a set of four plausible country-specific scenarios for India. These scenarios emphasize food security, livelihoods and the environment, and were developed through a series of participatory workshops with regional Indian stakeholders, using the IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSPs as a global context. The scenario storylines describe different but equally plausible socioeconomic futures. Participants of the scenario development process were coming from sectors like academia, the non-profit sector or agriculture. In addition, after completing the scenario development process, I worked in close cooperation with scientists of my host institution, the Centre for Ecological Economics and Natural Resources (CEENR) Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC). The objectives of the center are exactly in line with the discussed topic: The mandate of the Centre is to analyse the interface between economics, ecology and institutions, the trade-off between growth and ecological balance, and to evolve an appropriate strategy for the management of natural resources. With the passage of time and with several ecological issues of development coming to the fore, the Centre has emerged as an important focal point to analyse and identify various policy alternatives relating to sustainable development (ISEC 2017). 2

3 Schedule of Activities The working plan included five main steps ( ): Week 1-4: Finding suitable experts for the scenario development/adaptations. The linkages of ISEC with various stakeholders within for example the Indian agricultural system served as a core of my search. Week 3-6: Selection of SSPs that were investigated and refinement of the respective storylines together with the experts/stakeholders from different sectors. In this step the selected SSPs were adapted according to actual scientific and political debates regarding future developments in India. It was investigated how national policies and development targets (e.g. food security, biodiversity, climate mitigation) can be reflected in the SSPs and how these targets can be implemented into the LandSHIFT simulations (see appendix 1 picture of a workshop) : Study presentation on behalf of Agenda for the Interactive Session on Interdisciplinary Research for Sustainable Development at the Centre for Sustainable Development (CSD) in Bangalore. Week 7-9: Translation of the adapted SSPs into model input data. Together with scientists from the host institution the input data for the modeling exercise with LandSHIFT was derived from the storylines. This included information e.g. on crop production, technological change, population development, climate change and protection policies for ecosystems (data collection). Week 10: Design of the simulation experiments and execution of model runs. Week 11-12: GIS analysis of simulation results; interpretation and discussion of simulation results; biodiversity and carbon storage impact assessment, together with Indian scientists and students. Table 1: Time schedule 3

4 Assessment of the Field Research Especially for the development of scenarios for India, local expert based estimates were important. For this purpose, a series of interviews was conducted with different stakeholders (within workshops and individually). These sessions helped me to better understand the analyzed system and building on this we were able to think about first alternative future developments. However, I recognized that the construction of storylines require intensive discussions and compromises between the different people involved in the scenario exercise. A big advantage was the use of storylines from previous exercises (SSPs) which served as the basis for the new/adapted scenarios. Furthermore, in order to structure four different scenarios it was important to identify key drivers of change. The workshop participants identified several drivers, but to keep the time plan it was necessary to list them according to for example their importance or to the level of uncertainty associated with them. In the end, a few drivers were chosen in order to build the different scenario storylines. In addition to the qualitative scenario development process, scientists from my host institution helped me to quantify these storylines. Their knowledge about e.g. local data collection and modeling was essential for achieving results. Experiences My research travel to India has been a very valuable experience both scientifically and personally. For me it was a great experience to have the opportunity to get in touch with many friendly and hospitable people that took a lot of their precious time to answer my research questions. Besides the positive experience, I had to deal with a few challenges during my time. Workshops for example require a significant time commitment by the participants. It was difficult to find dates and times for the workshop meeting given the constraints of the participants' individual schedules and workloads. However, in the end I was impressed by the flexibility of the members and their motivation to help a master s student with his research. Finally, I would like to express my thanks to the International Center for Development and Decent Work (ICDD) for providing advice and funding for this field research. References Alcamo J (2001) Scenarios as tools for international environmental assessment. Copenhagen Gilroy JJ, Woodcock P, Edwards FA, et al (2014) Optimizing carbon storage and biodiversity 4

5 protection in tropical agricultural landscapes. Glob Chang Biol 20: doi: /gcb Godfray HCJ, Garnett T (2014) Food security and sustainable intensification. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 369: doi: /rstb ICSU (2017) A guide to SDG interactions: From science to implementation. International Council for Science, Paris ISEC (2017) Center for Ecological Economics and Natural Resources (CEENR). Accessed 24 Apr 2017 Nilsson M, Griggs D, Visbeck M, Ringler C (2016) A draft framework for understanding SDG interactions. Paris Obersteiner M, Walsh B, Frank S, et al (2016) Assessing the land resource-food price nexus of the Sustainable Development Goals. Sci Adv 2:e e doi: /sciadv Schaldach R, Alcamo J, Koch J, et al (2011) An integrated approach to modelling land-use change on continental and global scales. Environ Model Softw 26: doi: /j.envsoft UN (2016) Sustainable development goals. sustainable-development-goals/. Accessed 28 Sep 2016 Appendix 1: Participants in Bangalore developing scenario storylines. 5