Agricultural Development Scenarios
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1 Agricultural Development Scenarios Sylvia Tramberend Name of presenter Towards Innovative Solutions through Integrative Water Futures Analysis EAC Workshop, Entebbe, 4 Dec 2017
2 Overview VISION (Why?) MODEL SUPPORT (How?) Modelling Framework, Data Selected results CONCLUDING REMARKS
3 The VISION.+ more regional & local visions
4 The VISION Agricultural sector Achieving SDG 2 requires consideration of interlinkages with several other SDGs
5 Interlinkages of SDG 2 in East Africa (EAC) 75 % of water use for agriculture Low development of Irrigation infrastructure 75 % rural population 25 % of GDP from agriculture 70-90% of employment in agriculture 38 % protected areas Source: AQUASTAT, ILOSTAT, GAEZ, WDPA, KBA
6 MODELLING support towards the vision
7 Ecological-economic modelling framework
8 Development scenario a narrative Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) describe plausible trajectories of future demographic and economic development and characterize in broad terms the international setting (e.g. trade liberalization), technological progress and priorities in land use regulation.
9 The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways SSPs
10 Climate Model Representative Concentration Pathways (RPCs) describe the climate system and feed into Global Circulation Models (GCMs) Name Description Mean change by RCP 2.6 Can achieve Paris agreement + 1 C RCP 4.5 Low climate change C RCP 6.0 Medium climate change C RCP 8.5 Strong climate change C Source: Stocker 2014, based on IPCC
11 Agro-ecological zoning Methodology (AEZ) Agro-ecological suitability & land productivity Calculates crop cultivation potentials Developed jointly by IIASA and FAO
12 AEZ
13 Agricultural Economic Model
14 Downscaling to grid-cell layer Results of the World Food System Simulations are downscaled to the spatial grid of the resource database. Land use change Future Cropland Use (Rain-fed & Irrigated) Irrigation water demand
15 Key linkage Agriculture / Land use - CWAT Land use change (Forest, built-up) Future Cropland Use (Rain-fed & Irrigated) Irrigation water demand
16 Selected RESULTS in the African context
17 GDP_PPP (Billion US$2005) GDP_PPP/cap (US$2005/cap/yr) Population (Million people) Population (Million people) Demographic and economic drivers of the African food system development Population Population (Middle of the Road Scenario) 2, , , , , , ,250 1, Sustainability Middle of the Road Northern Africa Western Africa Middle Africa Eastern Africa Southern Africa 70,000 GDP_PPP (Middle of the Road Scenario) 50,000 GDP_PPP per caput 60,000 50,000 40,000 40,000 30,000 30,000 20,000 20,000 10, Northern Africa Western Africa Middle Africa Eastern Africa Southern Africa 10, Sustainability Middle of the Road
18 Population increase 2010 to Scenario Middle of the Road, 2050 Eastern African Community 138 mio 277 mio (SSP1 Sustainability) 315 mio (SSP2 Middle of the Road)
19 Education in SSP1 (Sustainability) Source: IIASA / Wittgensteincentre
20 Land use, 2010 Percentage of CROPLAND in 5-arc minute grid-cells (10 x 10 km) CROPLAND Percentage
21 Land use, 2010 Percentage of GRASSLAND in 5-arc minute grid-cells (10 x 10 km) GRASSLAND Percentage none < 5%
22 Land use, 2010 Percentage of SHRUB LAND in 5-arc minute grid-cells (10 x 10 km) SHRUB COVERED AREAS Percentage none < 5%
23 Land set-aside for environment & biodiversity 1 World DB of Protected Areas (WDPA) 2 Peace Park Foundation (PPF) 3 Global Wetland Database (GLWD) 4 Key Biodiversity Areas 5* Highest Biodiversity Importance 6* Strategic Water Resource Areas 9 Buffer for WDPA & PPF
24 Ruminant livestock distribution 2010 (TLU / km2)
25 EAC Land use, 2010 Uganda Tanzania UR Rwanda Kenya Burundi 0 200, , , ,000 1,000,000 square kilometers Cropland Forest Bare/sparsely veg. Built-up Water bodies Shrubland for ENV & LVST Grassland for ENV & LVST REMAIN shrubland REMAIN grassland
26 square kilometers EAC Land use change, Scenario SUSTAINABILITY Scenario MIDDLE of the ROAD Cropland Forest Built-up Shrubland for ENV & LVST Grassland for ENV & LVST REMAIN shrubland REMAIN grassland
27 Cropland changes,
28 Irrigated cropland changes,
29 Concluding remarks
30 Dimensions in agricultural modelling SPATIAL dimension TIME dimension GLOBAL Climate change Agricultural markets & trade Invasive species (e.g. pests) REGIONAL / LOCAL Biophysical pre-conditions Market access & integration Preferences (e.g. diets) Research & Development Innovation Technological progress
31 MODELS, DATA and implications Input data Models Output data OUTCOME Information & know-how for setting-up development pathways Climate Biophysical Storylines Socio-economics Population GDP Day 2 Scenario development workshop Technology
32 Thank you!
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