Social capital and adaptation to climate change: evidences from the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam

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Osborne Jason Gordon
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1 Social capital and adaptation to climate change: evidences from the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam Pham Khanh Nam University of Economics Ho Chi Minh city and Conference on economics of adaptation to climate change in low income countries Washington, May 2011

2 A brief Investigate role of social capital in adaptation to climate change in rural Mekong river delta Use field experiment and a household survey to capture the multi dimensional nature of social capital We find: Social capital at the individual level does not affect farmers private adaptation to climate change Yet some forms of social capital is associated with choice of some adaptation measures

3 Motivation Limited financial capability of Vietnamese farmers. Limited state funding for public adaptation projects Can farmers own social capital be utilized to facilitate the adaptation? Previous studies on social capital and adaptation: Qualitative studies (Adger 2003, Wolf et al. 2010) Quantitative studies: social capital in the forms of groups and networks (Deressa et al. 2009, Di Falco and Bulte 2009) We examine the role of trust and cooperation, besides groups and networks We attempt to understand how different dimensions of social capital affect the choice of adaptation measures

4 How does social capital affect adaptation? Positive effects: Facilitating exchange of information (Deressa et al 2009) Safety net, financial transfer (Carter and Maluccio, 2009) Facilitating collective action to overcome social dilemmas (Adger 2003) Negative effects: Reducing incentives to invest in adaptation (Di Falco and Bulte, 2009) Conduit for misperception about climate change effects (Wolf et al 2010)

5 A simple adaptation model Adaptation as a self insurance problem (Kane and Shogren, 2000) Probability that climate change occurs Initial wealth or farming outputs Net damage from climate change Cost of adaptation x* can be probability of adaptation optimal level of adaptation

typhoons Basic education (5 grade) Small cultivating land (0.

6 The village Sea level rise saltwater intrusion Decreased precipiration Increased unpredictability of weather Increased frequence of storms or typhoons Basic education (5 grade) Small cultivating land (0.47 hecta), mainly rice Farming income/total income = 0.4 Monthly inc. 1.8 mil. VND ($100)

7 Getting adaptation practices Challenges: disentangle climate stimulus from other stimuli (the market, family condition, and public policy) 3 questions: In the past 5 years 1. What have you done to adapt to unpredictability of weather and unusual timing of the seasons? 2. What have you done to adapt to longer periods of drought? 3. What have you done to adapt to saline intrusion?

8 Main adaptation measures Variables Description Percentage Farming practices Different planting dates varying planting or harvesting dates 60% Different varieties or crops Changing management practices Domestic water usage growing a number of different crops to reduce the risk of crop failure or using several varieties that are drought tolerant or resistant to saline water changing the use of capital, labor, chemicals, and fertilizers, or increasing the use of water conservation techniques More water storage Investing in more rainwater harvesting containers 74% Changing water use practices 43% 40% Saving water and changing water use pattern 51%

9 Social capital Conceptualized and measured basing on individual characteristics 4 social capital indicators: o Formal institution: o number of formal associations participated by family members o member of the Farmer s association o Informal institution: number of closed friends o Trust: a 5 point scale response to the statement most people who live in this village can be trusted o Cooperation: measured by a field public good experiment

10 Social capital The field public good experiment (Carlsson et al. 2010): o A public good game o Voluntarily contribute to build a bridge o Contribution levels as measures of cooperation

11 Social capital Variables Description Mean Std. dev. Formal institution Number of institution Farmers Association Number of associations participated in by family members Dummy = 1 if a member of the Farmers Association Min Max Informal institution Number of close friends Trust Trust in people who live in the same village Cooperativeness 1 Scaled cooperativeness Cooperativeness 2 Contribution residuals before scaled 8.4e

12 Correlation coefficients of social capital indicators Number of institution Farmers Association Informal institution Number of inst Famers Association Informal inst Trust Trust Cooperativeness (scaled) Cooperativeness (raw) Cooperative ness (scaled) Cooperativeness (raw)

13 Sampling and econometrics strategy

14 Knowledge variables Add a model with awareness and belief variables replacing social capital variables > to confirm the robustness of results in the social capital model through the direct effects of knowledge on adaptation behavior. Awareness Belief (farming) Belief (water) Level of information about climate change and its impacts: 1=very poorly informed (21%); 2=poorly informed (24%); 3=moderately informed (31%); 4=well informed (21%); 5=very well informed (3%) Dummy=1 if believe that climate change will cause a decrease in rice productivity within the next 20 years Dummy=1 if believe that climate is changing to such an extent that it will substantially affect the family s ways of life 2.62 (1.14)

15 Multivariate probit estimate of adaptation in farming practices Dependent variable Different planting dates Model 1 Model 2 Different Changing Different Different varieties or management planting varieties or crops practices dates crops Changing management practices Formal inst ** Informal inst ** Trust Cooperativeness 0.030* Awareness Belief ** Income ratio 0.390** * 0.287* * Income Land size Labor 0.070** 0.096*** *** 0.110*** Age * Education 0.099* 0.097* Head = 0.524*** 12 = 0.545*** 13 = 0.407*** 13 = 0.392*** 23 = 0.332*** 23 = 0.317*** N = 182

16 Multivariate probit estimate of adaptation in domestic water usages Model 1 Model 2 Dependent variable More water storage Changing water use practices More water storage Changing water use practices Formal institution Informal institution Trust Cooperativeness 0.035** Awareness Belief Income ratio Income Land size Labor Age Education Head Children *** *** N = = 0.303** 12 = 0.304**

17 Discussions Social capital at the individual level does not affect farmers private adaptation to climate change. Why? Trust is not associated with farmers choice of any private adaptation measures Private adaptation joint adaptation: cooperativeness shows a substitute The findings do not support for the arguments for developing rural institutions as well as building trust in order to enhance private adaptation to climate change in rural Vietnam

Vietnam Baseline Perspective. Key issues and trends in the Mekong Delta

Vietnam Baseline Perspective. Key issues and trends in the Mekong Delta Vietnam Baseline Perspective Key issues and trends in the Mekong Delta Structure of presentation National macro-economics - Total national GDP trend - Key growing sector - Drivers of the trend - Government