Global and U.S. Rice Markets Face Tighter Supplies in 2015/16

Transcription

1 Global and U.S. Rice Markets Face Tighter Supplies in 2015/16 University of Arkansas Webinar Series November 19, 2015 Nathan Childs, Economic Research Service, USDA

2 PART 1 THE 2015/16 GLOBAL RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

3 The 2015/16 Global Rice Market: Overview Global production is projected to decline 1 percent to million tons (milled basis) with 2015/16 the second consecutive year of a smaller global crop. Total global rice supplies are expected to decline 1.5 percent in 2015/16, and would be the smallest since 2011/12.

4 The 2015/16 Global Rice Market: Global Production Largest production declines are projected for Thailand ( 12.5%), India ( 1.2%), and the United States ( 14.3%) all three are major exporters. Crops are projected smaller in Cambodia ( 7.4%) and Burma ( 3.2%) rising mid level exporters. Production is projected to decline in the other midlevel exporters: Australia ( 10%), Argentina ( 12%), Egypt ( 12%), and Guyana ( 1 %), but to increase in Paraguay (+7%) and Uruguay (+4%).

5 The 2015/16 Global Rice Market: Global Production Among major importers, crops are projected smaller in the Philippines ( 3.5%) and Brazil ( 5.5%). But crops are projected to be up slightly in China (record), Indonesia, and Bangladesh (record), and up 16 percent in Sri Lanka (record). El Niño is major factor causing smaller crops in Southeast Asia. Impacts of El Niño are expected to continue into 2016 and could impact rice crops in South America.

6 Mil. tons Thailand s rice production has declined 20 percent since 2013/14 Mil. Ha. 2015/16 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

7 MIL. TONS Global rice supplies are projected to decline for a second consecutive year Milled basis. 2015/16 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

8 The 2015/16 Global Rice Market: Use, Stocks, and Prices At a record million tons, consumption (including a residual) is up 1 percent from 2014/15 and exceeds production by 12.7 million tons. Ending stocks in 2015/16 are projected to drop 12 percent to 91.0 million tons, the lowest since 2007/08 and the third consecutive year of declining global ending stocks of rice. Despite tighter global ending stocks, global trading prices have shown no strength and are below levels at the start of 2015/16.

9 MILL. TONS Global ending stocks in 2015/16 are projected to decline 12 percent PERCENT 2015/16 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

10 with ending stocks held by major rice exporters projected to decline 33 percent in 2015/16 MIL. TONS These 5 countries account for about 85 percent of global exports. Milled basis. 2015/16 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

11 The Global Rice Trade: Calendar Year 2016 Global trade in 2016 is projected to drop 1.5 percent to 41.9 million tons (milled basis), still the third highest on record. In 2016, weaker exports from Cambodia, Burma, India (down 2 million tons), and the United States are projected to more than offset stronger shipments from Argentina, Egypt, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam.

12 The Global Rice Trade: Calendar Year 2016 Nigeria (down 1.0 million tons) and Sri Lanka are projected to import less rice. China remains the number one importer, increasing purchases to a record 4.7 million tons. Bangladesh, Brazil, and Indonesia are projected to import more rice. Imports by Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia are projected up slightly. The Philippines imports remain strong at a projected 1.8 million tons.

13 MILL. TONS About 9 percent of global rice production is traded, double the share 25 year ago PERCENT 2015 and 2016 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

14 India s exports are projected to decline in 2016; Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan s to increase MIL. TONS Major Exporters 2015 and 2016 forecasts. These 5 countries account for more than 80 percent of global rice exports are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

15 After a decade of expansion, Burma and Cambodia are projected to export less rice in ,000 TONS 2015 and 2016 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

16 MIL. TONS China s rice imports have risen sharply since and 2016 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

17 1,000 TONS China accounts for more than 11 percent of global rice imports Milled basis and 2016 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

18 Indonesia, Malaysia, & Bangladesh are projected to increase imports in 2016; Philippines imports remain strong 1,000 TONS 2015 and 2016 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

19 U.S. prices remain more than $200 per ton above Thailand s prices $/TON THAI 100 PERCENT B U.S. LONG GRAIN, NO. 2, 4% November 2015 preliminary. All prices quoted free-on-board vessel at local port. Sources: Thai quotes, U.S. Ag Counselor, Bangkok; U.S. and Vietnam quotes, Creed Rice Market Report.

20 PART 2 THE U.S. 2015/16 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

21 The U.S. 2015/16 Rice Market: Main points Large carryin, record imports, and a much smaller crop result in a 5-percent decline in total supplies in 2015/16. Both U.S. domestic use and U.S. exports are projected to be smaller in 2015/16. Ending stocks in 2015/16 are projected to tighten to a more normal level. Little change is expected in the 2015/16 U.S. long-grain or California medium- and short-grain season-average farm price (SAFP). But the southern medium- and short-grain SAFP is expected to decline in 2015/16.

22 Smaller plantings pulled U.S. rice production down 14 percent in 2015/16 MILL. CWT MILL. ACRES Rough basis. 2015/16 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA..

23 with production in 2015 smaller in all reported States 2015 are forecasts. Source: Prospective Plantings, March 2015, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA.

24 MILL. CWT U.S. rice imports in 2015/16 are projected record high PERCENT 2015/16 are forecasts. 1/ Rough basis. 2/ Does not include seed use. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA.

25 Despite a larger carryin, U.S. rice supplies are projected to decline 5 percent in 2015/16 Mill. CWT

26 Both U.S exports and domestic use are projected to be slightly smaller in 2015/16 MILL. CWT Rough-rice basis. 2015/16 are forecasts. Sources: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA.

27 With both milled rice and rough rice exports projected smaller in 2015/16 MILL. CWT Rough basis. 2015/16 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA.

28 Long grain accounts for all of the projected decline in U.S. rice exports in 2015/16 MILL. CWT Rough basis. 2015/16 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA.

29 Through November 12, 2015, U.S. commercial exports were 55 percent ahead of a year earlier Does not include donations. Source: U.S. Export Sales, Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture,

30 With sales and shipments well ahead of a year earlier to Source: U.S. Export Sales, Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture,

31 but behind a year earlier to: Source: U.S. Export Sales, Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture,

32 U.S. all rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 18 percent in 2015/16 MILL. CWT PERCENT Rough basis. 2015/16 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA..

33 $/CWT Little change is projected in U.S. season average farm prices in 2015/ /16 forecasts. Source: Quick Stats, NASS, USDA,

34 However, the southern medium and short grain SAFP price is projected to decline in 2015/16 1/ $/CWT Market years 2/ 1/ Season-average rough-rice for medium- and short-grain rice first reported by region for the 2008/09 market year. 2/ October-September market year. 3/ August-July market year. Source: Quick Stats data base, NASS, USDA.

35 U.S. long grain rough rice prices increased in September $/CWT All prices are full month. 1/ Monthly U.S. cash price for all-rice reported by NASS. 2/ Monthly rough-rice prices by class first reported August Source: Quick Stats, NASS, USDA,

36 $/CWT The California medium- and short-grain price difference has increased since July 1/ All prices are full month. 1/ Monthly U.S. cash price for medium- and short-grain rice first reported by region for 2013/14 market year. 2/ Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas. Source: Quick Stats, NASS, USDA,

37 For More Information, Please Go To: The Economic Research Service Home Pagehttp:// The Rice Topics Page