Green House Gas Emissions, Food Security and The Market Place
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1 Green House Gas Emissions, Food Security and The Market Place John Gilliland Farmer, Derry, Ireland Chairman, Rural Climate Change Forum, DEFRA A Climate for Change Opportunities for Carbon-Efficient Farming June 2010
2 The UK Media s New Debate!! Give up meat Save the Planet! Allegedly Lord Stern, Times, Oct 09 Meat creates half of all Green House Emissions! WorldWatch Institute, Independent, Nov 09 Go Veggie and Save the Earth, Meat means Global Disaster! Daily Star, Oct 09 Whitehall turf war saves cows hides! BBC, 26 th of Nov 09
3 Agriculture is a both a Sequester and a Net Emitter of GHGs 7% of UK GHG emissions from Agriculture (21% of NI s) 1% of UK Carbon Dioxide emissions 37% of UK Methane emissions (Enteric Fermentation) 67% of UK Nitrous Oxide emissions (Soils) NB Methane is 23 times more potent than CO2 - Nitrous Oxide is 296 times more potent
4 So Why Should Irish Agriculture Worry? 80% of all Irish Food production is Exported 60% of Irish Exports bought by GB Retailers GB Retailer Policy coloured by Media Debate Retailers manoeuvring to reposition Brand & take costs out of the Supply Chain Tesco Commitment Zero Carbon Business by % Reduction over next Decade
5 Why Should Agriculture Engage With Climate Change? Security of the European & Global Food Chains More Extreame Weather (Droughts, Floods, Snow & Ice) More Pests & Diseases (Blue Tongue, Brown Rot, etc) Saving Money & Efficient Agriculture New Legislation & Policies New Market Place Developments Energy Security & Jobs in the Green Economy
6 Security of the European Food Chain? The climate map of Europe in 2080: high emissions scenario, based on temperature and aridity (but not rainfall) The amount our climate could change is significant Our natural environment is not adapted to the Climate of Southern Europe This would mean significant changes to how we use land, and manage our water supply. The affect on the more Southerly Countries will also effect us: trade and relations International Centre for Research on the Environment and Development (France) University of Bremen 6
7 The Challenges Food Sustainability &/or Climate Change??!! By % reduction in GHG Emissions By 2050 World Population increase from 6 to 9bn By 2050 Global temperature increase of between 2 to 4C 1C increase in Global temp. reduces Global grain yield potential by 10% as aridity moves out from the Equator Fischer Boel When it comes to food production & climate change, we are caught between the devil & the deep blue sea.. But we re not forced to accept either starvation or ecological disaster. We must find away to both feed ourselves & start to bring climate change under control. 11/05/09
8 Identification of the Knowledge Gaps - Current Research Priorities Timing of mineral/organic Nitrogen applications Use of Nitrification Inhibitors/Slow Release fertilisers Carbon storage, Forestry, Soils & Soil Emissions (No till/min till; Organic Soils) Manipulation of Animal Diets for Methane Reduction Understanding the Economics of reducing GHGs Improving National GHG inventory & Carbon Calculators Perverse Outcomes due to interconnectivity of Sector
9 Agriculture Marginal Abatement Cost Curve Benefits & Costs of reducing GHGs /tco 2 e 250 AD Crops and Soil Livestock MtCO 2 e Probiotics Avoid N-Excess Breeding (N Efficiency) Manure N Use Breeding (Fertility) Timing (Organic N) Timing (Mineral N) Improved Drainage Nitrification Inhibitors Species Intro 2020 Central Feasible Potential Committee on Climate Change
10 The Role of Genetics in Reducing GHGs Since 1988 Poultry 26%, Pigs 20%, Dairy Cows 8%, Cattle & Sheep 0%
11 Role of Renewables & Efficiency in GHGs Carbon Trust
12 New Policies The UK & Scottish Climate Change Acts The first in the World & Cross Party supported. Compulsory Targets to reduce GHG emissions by 80% by 2050, against the 1990 baseline. Committee on Climate Change set up to oversee & advise Government (Chair Lord Adair Turner) Includes all GHGs (methane & nitrous oxide) & all Sectors of the Economy Includes ability to extend Emissions Trading through Secondary Legislation 34% Reduction, UK Target, without Copenhagen Deal 42% Reduction, Scottish Target
13 Agriculture, Forestry & Landuse, in Context Carbon Trust
14 New Market Place Developments Walkers Crisps Carbon Footprint Label A 35gram bag has 75grams of CO2 Agriculture Processing - cooking Packaging supply chain Transport Packaging disposal 7%, or 6g Reduction in First Two Years
15 Product Life Cycle Analysis Becoming the Norm & at Unprecedented Rate UK Beef UK Lamb Pork Chicken Potato t of CO 2 e/t Product Primary Energy use, GJ/t EBLEX But - Be wary of Perverse Outcomes from using First Generation, Carbon Calculators No Sequestration!!
16 First Generation Carbon Calculators Food Chain, Carbon Accounting PAS 2050 Standard Facilitated by UK Government & British Standards Inst. Supported by Food Industry (Ass. British Agric.; British Sugar; Cadbury; Co-op; Innocent; Muller; Pepsico; Tesco) Indirect Landuse Change Consequences & On farm Seq.? Carbon Accounting for Land Managers (CALM Calculator) Developed by CLA, Savills & East of England Dev. Agency Free Web Based Calculator for complete Rural Business Recognises On Farm Sequestration, as well as Emissions Need Hybrid! Accredited but Recognising Sequestration!
17 But, be wary of the Perverse Outcomes - Livestock Destocking!! Ruminant Livestock production is Grass Based Permanent Grass is an excellent Carbon Sink, and very good for Biodiversity Uncontrolled Ploughing of permanent grass will lead to excessive GHG Emissions & reduction in Biodiversity Forced Destocking of livestock, without behavioural change in Consumption will lead to the exporting of GHG Emissions created by this Food Consumption
18 Projected Job Creation in EU Renewables, if 20% EU Target to be met by mostly in Agric! Offshore wind Onshore wind Tide & wave Solar thermal PV Hydro Geothermal Bio-waste Solid Biomass Bio-gas Total RES jobs Jobs EU27 154, ,550 19, , ,000 28,000 10, , , ,000 2,023,000 Jobs UK 251, ,400 41,880 5,600 8,360 13,960 19,540 13, ,000 Jobs 1,400 8,360 2, , ,150 Source: Renewable Energy Supply Chain in Northern Ireland, June 2008 NI Jobs per MW
19 GHGs, Food Security & The Market Place Farming & the Agrifood Industry must Engage!! Focusing on Climate Change alone, leads to Perverse Outcomes Not an exact science & questions still to be answered Further Investment in R&D Essential, if we are to both feed the World and alleviate Climate Change eg. Global Agriculture Research Alliance The Media, Retailers & Consumers knowledge limited. They must be Engaged & Educated, otherwise the Ruminant Sector especially, will be the Looser!!!
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2011 Agriculture HSC Examination Sample Answers When examination committees develop questions for the examination, they may write sample answers or, in the case of some questions, answers could include.