HANDBOOK OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGROECOSYSTEMS

Transcription

1 HANDBOOK OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGROECOSYSTEMS Global and Regional Aspects and Implications Joint Publication with American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America

2 ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Editors-in-Chief: Daniel Hillel and Cynthia Rosenzweig (Columbia Univ. and Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA) Vol. 1: Vol. 2: Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation edited by Daniel Hillel and Cynthia Rosenzweig Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: Global and Regional Aspects and Implications Joint Publication with the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America edited by Daniel Hillel and Cynthia Rosenzweig

3 ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Vol. 2 HANDBOOK OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGROECOSYSTEMS Global and Regional Aspects and Implications editors Daniel Hillel Cynthia Rosenzweig Columbia University and Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA Joint Publication with American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America ICP Imperial College Press

4 Published by Imperial College Press 57 Shelton Street Covent Garden London WC2H 9HE Distributed by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. 5 Toh Tuck Link, Singapore USA office: 27 Warren Street, Suite , Hackensack, NJ UK office: 57 Shelton Street, Covent Garden, London WC2H 9HE British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Cover map: Principal Soil Orders, USDA. ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Vol. 2 HANDBOOK OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGROECOSYSTEMS Global and Regional Aspects and Implications Joint Publication with the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America Copyright 2013 by Imperial College Press All rights reserved. This book, or parts thereof, may not be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented, without written permission from the Publisher. For photocopying of material in this volume, please pay a copying fee through the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA. In this case permission to photocopy is not required from the publisher. ISBN In-house Editor: Monica Lesmana Typeset by Stallion Press enquiries@stallionpress.com Printed in Singapore.

5 Foreword This volume is an exciting joint publication of the Imperial College Press (ICP) and the American Society of Agronomy (ASA), the Soil Science Society of America (SSSA), and the Crop Science Society of America (CSSA). It is the first in what is hoped to be an on-going activity, dedicated to elucidating the integrated agricultural impacts of climate change, and to furthering effective responses to this global challenge through agricultural research. The effort is designed to present and integrate the work of leading researchers in the world regarding climate change mitigation and adaptation in agriculture. The process of climate change, induced by the anthropogenic accumulations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is likely to generate effects that will cascade through the entire biosphere and hydrosphere, impacting all life on earth and bearing upon human endeavors. Of special concern is the potential effect on agriculture and global food security. Climate change is expected to affect agriculture in complex ways throughout the soil-crop-atmosphere continuum. The effects will modify the production of food, fiber, and fuel, and thus impact the lives and livelihoods of both producers and consumers. Agricultural researchers are playing a crucial role, not just in understanding climate change impacts, but in developing effective responses to them. These responses include mitigation actions aimed at reducing the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (thus avoiding long-term risks) and adaptation strategies designed to accommodate and adjust to climate changes that cannot be avoided. As the scientific and practical knowledge of the agricultural processes and responses involved in climate change continues to grow, the joint publication series of the ICP, ASA, SSSA, and CSSA will address important aspects of this topic periodically over the coming years. The volumes will encompass cutting-edge research findings from the range of disciplines agronomy, soil science, and crop v

6 vi Foreword science needed to understand and provide solutions for the challenges posed by climate change. The ultimate goal is to ensure food security sustainably for future generations. Charles W. Rice President of the Soil Science Society of America (2011) University Distinguished Professor and Professor of Soil Microbiology Kansas State University, Department of Agronomy Manhattan, Kansas Jerry L. Hatfield President of the American Society of Agronomy (2007) Director, National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment United State Department of Agriculture, Agriculture Research Service Ames, Iowa

7 Preface Climate change is no longer merely projected to occur in the indeterminate future. It has already begun to be manifested in the weather regimes affecting agroecosystems, food production, and rural livelihoods in many regions around the world. It is an actual and growing challenge to the world at large and to the scientific community in particular, which is called upon with increasing urgency to respond effectively. This is the second volume in the ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation. The ongoing series is dedicated to elucidating the actual and potential impacts of climate change, and to formulating effective responses to this global challenge. It is designed to inform, spur, and integrate the work of leading researchers in the major regions of the world, and to promote interdisciplinary advances in this crucial field. Agricultural volumes in this series are now and henceforth to be published jointly by the American Society of Agronomy, the Soil Science Society of America, and the Crop Science Society of America and Imperial College Press. We believe that this fruitful cooperation will further international awareness and synergies within the scientific community and beyond it toward one of the most crucial portending challenges of global importance. Daniel Hillel and Cynthia Rosenzweig Editors vii

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9 About the Editors Daniel Hillel is a world-renowned environmental scientist and hydrologist who has worked in over 30 countries across North and South America, Europe, Asia, Australasia and Africa. He is the 2012 winner of the World Food Prize, recognizing individuals who have contributed landmark achievements in increasing the quality, quantity or availability of food in the world. Professor Hillel is receiving the prize for his innovative work in micro-irrigation and his success in bridging cultural gaps to solve a global issue. He has published over 300 scientific papers and manuals on agriculture, the environment, climate change, and water-use efficiency, as well as authored or edited 24 books that have been adopted by many universities as standard teaching and reference textbooks and translated into ten languages. Dr. Hillel is an elected Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the American Geophysical Union, the Soil Science Society of America, and the American Society of Agronomy. He was granted the Distinguished Service Award and was the Honoree of a special dedicated Symposium of the latter Society. In addition, he has been the recipient of honorary doctorates by several leading universities in the U.S. and abroad. Cynthia Rosenzweig is a Senior Research Scientist at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies where she leads the Climate Impacts Group. The mission of the Climate Impacts Group is to improve understanding of how climate affects human and natural systems and to develop solutions for adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. A recipient of a Guggenheim Fellowship, Dr. Rosenzweig also holds adjunct positions as Senior Research Scientist at the Columbia University Earth Institute and Professor of Environmental Sciences at Barnard College. She was a Coordinating Lead Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report and is a Co-Leader of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). ix

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11 Acknowledgments The editors of this book acknowledge with gratitude the following colleagues and organizations: Dr. Charles W. Rice, former President of the Soil Science Society of America, and Dr. Jerry L. Hatfield, President of the American Society of Agronomy, who helped to plan and implement the Cross-Cutting Symposium that led to this volume at the 2011 Annual Meetings of the ASA, SSSA, and CSSA; The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and the American Society of Agronomy who provided support for international colleagues to participate in the Symposium; Ms. Andrea Basche, of Iowa State University, who provided much appreciated support during the Symposium; Ms. Somayya Ali, Mr. Daniel Bader, Ms. Soyee Chiu, Mr. José Mendoza, Ms. Shari Lifson and Ms. Redencion Licardo of Columbia University and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who provided excellent assistance in the detailed preparation of the manuscripts and illustrations; Dr. Zvi Ruder, the Senior Executive Editor on behalf of Imperial College Press, who initiated the series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation; and Mr. Mark Mandelbaum, Director of Publications at the American Society of Agronomy, Soil Science Society of America, and Crop Science Society of America, both of whom worked concertedly to make the joint publication of this volume by ICP and the ASA, SSSA, and CSSA a reality; And finally, the dedicated staff at Imperial College Press; particularly Ms. Juliet Lee and Ms. Monica Lesmana, for their professional care and expertise in preparing this book for publication. xi

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13 Contents Foreword Preface About the Editors Acknowledgments Introduction Climate Change and Agroecosystems: Global and Regional Perspectives Daniel Hillel and Cynthia Rosenzweig Section I. Themes 1 Chapter 1. Chapter 2. v vii ix xi xvii Agriculture and Environment in a Crowding and Warming World 3 Daniel Hillel and Cynthia Rosenzweig Contributions to Climate Change Solutions from the Agronomy Perspective 11 David W. Wolfe Section II. Regions 31 Chapter 3. North American Perspectives on Potential Climate Change and Agricultural Responses 33 Jerry L. Hatfield xiii

14 xiv Contents Chapter 4. Latin American Perspectives on Adaptation of Agricultural Systems to Climate Variability and Change 57 Walter E. Baethgen and Lisa Goddard Chapter 5. Chapter 6. Chapter 7. Chapter 8. Chapter 9. European Perspectives: An Agronomic Science Plan for Food Security in a Changing Climate 73 John R. Porter, Jean-Francois Soussana, Elias Fereres, Stephen Long, Fritz Mohren, Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio, and Joachim von Braun African Perspectives on Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Potential 85 Jesse Naab, Andre Bationo, Benson M. Wafula, Pierre S. Traore, Robert Zougmore, Mamadou Ouattara, Ramadjita Tabo, and Paul L. G. Vlek Australia and New Zealand Perspectives on Climate Change and Agriculture 107 Peter J. Thorburn, Michael J. Robertson, Brent E. Clothier, Val O. Snow, Ed Charmley, Jon Sanderman, Edmar Teixeira, Robyn A. Dynes, Alistair Hall, Hamish Brown, S. Mark Howden, and Michael Battaglia Middle East and North Africa Perspectives on Climate Change and Agriculture: Adaptation Strategies 143 Shawki Barghouti, Shoaib Ismail, and Rachael McDonnell Israeli Perspectives on Climate Change Influences on Semi-Arid Agriculture, Forestry and Soil Conservation 161 Shabtai Cohen, Guy Levy, and Meni Ben-Hur Chapter 10. China Perspectives on Climate Change andagriculture: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation Potential 193 Liang Tang, Yan Zhu, Weixing Cao, and Yu Zhang

15 Contents xv Chapter 11. South Asia Perspectives on Climate Change and Agriculture: Adaptation Options 209 Pramod Aggarwal, Himanshu Pathak, Soora N. Kumar, and Pradeep Sharma Section III. Programs and Projects 223 Chapter 12. Chapter 13. Chapter 14. Conclusion Research Needs for Agriculture Under Elevated Carbon Dioxide 225 Mary Beth Kirkham Contributions of WMO Programs in Addressing Climate Change and Agriculture 235 Mannava V.K. Sivakumar, Oksana Tarasova, Slobodan Nickovic, Deon Terblanche, and Ghassem Asrar The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Integrated Regional Assessment Projects 263 Cynthia Rosenzweig, James W. Jones, Jerry L. Hatfield, Carolyn Z. Mutter, Samuel G.K. Adiku, Ashfaq Ahmed, Yacob Beletse, Babooji Gangwar, Dileepkumar Guntuku, Job Kihara, Patricia Masikati, Ponnusamy Paramasivan, K.P.C. Rao, and Lareef Zubair Agricultural Solutions for Climate Change at Global and Regional Scales 281 Cynthia Rosenzweig and Daniel Hillel Index 293

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17 Introduction Climate Change and Agroecosystems: Global and Regional Perspectives Daniel Hillel and Cynthia Rosenzweig Columbia University and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies 2880 Broadway New York, NY Much attention has been devoted by the research community to the overarching processes inducing global climate change. It is now time to focus more specifically on how agriculture will be affected both globally and regionally and in turn, how agriculture can contribute to climate change solutions. The response of particular regions and their agroecosystems are certain to vary, and hence require different approaches to both mitigation and adaptation. These solutions span a broad spectrum from genetic improvement to enhanced environmental management to soil carbon sequestration. This need motivated the convening of a daylong Cross-Cutting Symposium at the 2011 Annual Meetings of the American Society of Agronomy, Soil Science Society of America, and Crop Science Society of America, entitled: Agriculture s Contributions to Climate Change Solutions: Mitigation and Adaptation at Global and Regional Scales. The goal of the symposium and this volume is to contribute to fostering a broad range of climate change solutions from agronomy and soil science both globally and regionally. Scientists from North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Australia, the Middle East, East Asia, and South Asia participated. Key issues include the potential for mitigation and adaptation capacities of different regions including developing or introducing more heat and drought-tolerant xvii

18 xviii D. Hillel and C. Rosenzweig crop varieties, management methods for dealing with more extreme climate events, effective means of soil carbon sequestration, soil conservation and fertility enhancement, as well as improved water-use efficiency. Responding to climate change in developing agricultural regions of the world is particularly important because they are projected to experience the greatest impacts of climate change as well as the greatest rates of population growth, thus potentially exacerbating threats to food security. This volume is organized into three sections, with this Introduction setting the stage by highlighting key issues. The first section, Themes, presents the contributions to climate change solutions from the agronomy perspective. The second section Regions includes nine chapters by regional experts focusing on geographically specific impacts, adaptation strategies, and mitigation options. The third section Programs and Projects describes important activities related to improving climate change solutions in agriculture. Finally, the Conclusion section summarizes the main findings and sets research directions.