IEc. Responding to Climate Change in Moldova s Agricultural Sector: Impact Assessment on Crops. Ana Iglesias. April 2011

Transcription

1 IEc Responding to Climate Change in Moldova s Agricultural Sector: Impact Assessment on Crops Ana Iglesias April 211

2 18 sites 12 scenarios 1 years / scenario 6 crops 4 variables / crop 8 management strategies 3 people 1 country, Moldova 2

3 Acknowledgements: 4 stakeholder groups + Institutions 1 Research field crops Boris Boincean, FC Inst Selectia Anatol Meleca, I Phyto Porumbeni Sandu Tatiana, Nat C Plant Varieties Vladimir Rosca, Nat C Plant Varieties Vladimir Todiras, Inst PP & Org Farm 2 Research horticulture and viticulture Grigore Marian, Moldovan Agr Univ Maria Pintea, Inst of Horticulture Tudor Cazac, Inst of Wine and Vine Victor Bucarciuc, Inst Horticulure 3 Policy Ion Sula, M. Agr &Food Leonid Volosciuc, Inst Plant Protection and Organic Farming Silvia Mistret, Inst Phy Porumbeni Tamara Roznerita, M Agr &Food Veronica Matenco, M Agr &Food M. Agr & Food, Hydromet 4 Technical aspects Dorian Pasat, FC Inst Selectia Elena Zbank,, FC Inst Selectia Ivan Sicora,, FC Inst Selectia Marin Cebotari,, FC Inst Selectia Sergiu Gavrilas,, FC Inst Selectia Vadim Cuzeac,, FC Inst Selectia

4 Suary Overall Some aspects of climate change such as longer growing seasons and warmer temperatures may bring benefits,....but there will also be a range of adverse impacts, including reduced water availability, more variability and more drought Potentially strong distributional effects 7

5 Suary Optimal location of crops (zones) Possible effect change Confidence level high Crop productivity change high Irrigation requirements Damage by extremes Env and soil degradation, pest & diseases damage increase increase increase high medium medium 8

6 Suary North Increased potential for spring wheat and maize for fodder Potential pasture decrease due to reduced precipitation in suer C Brisceni C Soroca C Camenca Marginal areas may become very vulnerable 1 1 due to lack of adaptive 7 capacity C 2 Ribnita C Balti C 2 Falesti 1 1 9

7 Suary Central Potential increase of crop suitability for all field crops, given adequate water supply Decrease productivity in some high quality crops C Cornesti C Dubasari Need for supplemental irrigation for all crops irrigation 1 1 C 2 Baltata C Chisinau

8 Suary South Increased risk of drought C C Stefan Voda Cahul Potential increase of crop productivity for all field crops, vegetables and grapes, given adequate water supply Decrease productivity in some high quality crops Need for supplemental irrigation for all crops 11

9 The choice of crops Wheat most widespread Maize silage, grain, 3 rd area Alfalfa & pasture livestock feed (important sector) Grapes high value Apples the most important fruit product Walnuts important for mitigation 12

10 crop models atmosphere management soil crop

11 uncertainty Limitations, uncertainty, complexity model parameter (calibration) model theory (architecture) complexity 16

12 Temperature (C) Solar duration (h) Precipitation () Current climate Cahul Ceadir-Lunga Comrat Stefan Voda Leova Tiraspol Chisinau Baltata Codrii Dubasari Cornesti Bravicea Falesti Balti Ribnita Camenca Soroca Briceni Monthly Total Precip () Avg Mean Temp (C) Avg Max Temp (C) Avg Min Temp (C) Avg Solar Duration (h) Northern Central Southern

13 Changes in growing season precipitation Dryland: Growing season precipitation changes from baseline (sites 1 to 18) wheat Scenarios BASE SC1 SC2 SC3 SC4 SC SC6 SC7 SC8 SC9 SC1 SC11 SC12 maize Dryland: Growing season precipitation changes from baseline (sites 1 to 18) Scenarios BASE SC1 SC2 SC3 SC4 SC SC6 SC7 SC8 SC9 SC1 SC11 SC12 18

14 Mat yield kg/ha Variability of maize yield: high impact 24s scenario Box Plot of Yield at maturity (kg [dm]/ha) - Perc. - 7 Perc. 7-1 Perc. th Perc. rainfed Treatment Box Plot of Yield at maturity (kg [dm]/ha) - Perc. - 7 Perc. 7-1 Perc. th Perc irrigated Treatment 19

15 Changes in rainfed crop productivity kg/ha Dryland: Yield changes from baseline (sites 1 to 18) wheat kg/ha Scenarios BASE SC1 SC2 SC3 SC4 SC SC6 SC7 SC8 SC9 SC1 SC11 maize Dryland: SC12 Yield changes from baseline (sites 1 to 18) Scenarios BASE SC1 SC2 SC3 SC4 SC SC6 SC7 SC8 SC9 SC1 SC11 SC12 2

16 Yield changes (suary, medium scenario) Irrigated/ Rainfed Irrigated Rainfed Crop Northern Central Southern Maize -8% -6% -9% Wheat -14% -3% -34% Alfalfa -7% -13% -18% Grapes -4% -3% -% Apples % % -3% Vegetables -% -9% -13% Maize -9% -3% -1% Wheat -36% -38% -4% Pasture -17% -22% -19% Alfalfa -13% -18% -12% Grapes -4% -3% -2% Apples -2% -4% 3% Vegetables -9% -13% -9% In all zones, the crops in the Reut basin are more at risk (up to -3%)

17 The final impacts depend on: Heat stress and drought in suer Floods, water-logging Environmental degradation 22

18 Decline of high quality crops Regulations may limit opportunities 23

19 Water demand for irrigation: Balti, 4 crops 4 maize total irrgi damand (/yr) s s1 s2 4 wheat total irrgi damand (/yr) s s1 s2 s3 s3 maize 3 2 s4 s s6 s7 3 2 s4 s s6 s7 wheat s8 s8 1 s9 s1 1 s9 s1 1 s11 s12 1 s11 s12 pasture 4 3 pasture total irrgi damand (/yr) s s1 s2 s3 s4 s 4 3 grapevine total irrgi damand (/yr) s s1 s2 s3 s4 s grapevine 2 s6 s7 2 s6 s7 s8 s8 1 s9 s1 1 s9 s1 1 s11 s12 1 s11 s12 24

20 Irrigation water demand projections, total millions of cubic meters 21s 22s 23s 24s base low medium high larger demand, earlier in the season

21 Can optimal management improve opportunities? management 8 level management 8 level 4 rainfed base 21s 22s 23s 24s base 21s 22s 23s 24s South region irrigated 8 6 base base 4 low low medium medium 2 high high base 21s 22s 23s 24s 8 6 base base 4 21s 21s 23s 23s 2 24s 24s base 21s 22s 23s 24s 26

22 Role of RD (CAP) A flexible framework Axis 1 Farm modernization Restoring & prevention Farm advisory services Training Axis 2 Agri-env measures Payments linked to WFD Axis 3 Diversification into nonagricultural activities Leader 27

23 Water scarcity and drought Conflicts among water users 28

24 The past is not a reliable indicator for the future Reasons for concern when we think about climate change and agriculture in Moldova Consequences are unequal Solutions: Agricultural technology, cooperation, improved management, policy Ahead: Deciding on the solutions that are appropriate (the how issue) 29

25 IEc 3