PJM/MISO Day Ahead M2M Exchange BENEFIT ANALYSIS
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1 PJM/MISO Day Ahead M2M Exchange BENEFIT ANALYSIS
2 Benefit Analysis Objectives Evaluate the benefit of exchanging MW utilization on M2M flowgates in DA markets between MISO and PJM, where benefits are realized in terms of: Overall DA production cost savings for the 2 RTOs DA shadow price vs RT shadow price for the constraint Overall reduced RT JOA settlement for the 2 RTOs 2
3 Benefit Proposition FG 230: Breed Wheatland 345 kv line for loss of Jefferson Rockport 765 kv line (MISO Flowgate) on 1/11/2013 at 9:00 MISO PJM MISO RT SP MISO RT MF MISO RT FFE PJM RT SP PJM RT MF PJM RT FFE MISO RT M2M Credit = MISO SP * (PJM MF-PJM FFE) $ MW 258 MW $ MW 719 MW $ 237, SP: Shadow Price MF: Market Flow FFE: Firm Flow Entitlement DA: Day-Ahead RT: Real Time PJM acquired additional 283 MW of flowgate capacity from MISO in RT at the shadow price of $ If we were able to exchange some MW in DA markets, we anticipate: Reduced DA production cost with more efficient unit commitment and economic dispatch by RTOs in DA Market and Reliability Assessment Commitment process Reduced overall JOA Settlement (DA and RT combined) 3
4 Opportunities Shown in RT JOA Settlement Data Based on hourly data from 2013 and 2014 MISO-PJM RT JOA Settlement 60% 50% 40% 30% 59% Operation Frequency by MW Range when Market Flow Deviates from FFE Millions 20% 10% 0% $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $- 15% 15% 8% 3% 1% Less than 100 MW 100 to 200 MW 200 to 300 MW 300 to 400 MW 400 to 500 MW More than 500 MW RT JOA Settlements by MW Range when Market Flow Deviates from FFE $3.24 $2.57 $2.05 $1.39 $0.64 $0.74 Less than 100 MW 100 to 200 MW 200 to 300 MW 300 to 400 MW 400 to 500 MW More than 500 MW 4
5 Top 10 Flowgate Candidates Based on hourly data from 2013 and 2014 MISO-PJM RT JOA Settlement FG Name Owner RT JOA Settlement MW Exchange Opportunities (MW) $ / MW = RT JOA Settlement/ MW Exchange Opportunities Breed_Wheatland _345_flo_Jefferson_Rockport _765 MISO $4,931, ,342 $221 Cordova_Nelson345_flo_H471_Nelson345 PJM $1,615, ,421 $75 Monticello_East_Winamac_138_flo_Schahfer_Burr_Oak_345 MISO $1,239, ,580 $784 Crete_St_Johns_Tap_345_kV_l_o_Dum_Wi_Cent_765_kV PJM $481, ,257 $28 CaseyWest_Breed345_flo_WiltonCenter_Dumont765 MISO $456, ,721 $52 Oak_Grove_Galesburg_flo_Nelson_ElectricJct MISO $356, ,432 $249 Wheatland_Petersburg_345_flo_Rockport_Jefferson765 MISO $155, ,687 $58 Oakgrove_Galesburg_161_FLO_Cordova_Nelson_345 MISO $149, ,435 $105 Michigan_City_Laporte_138_flo_wilton_cntr_dumont PJM $138, ,530 $91 MiamiFt_345by138kV_xf9_flo_Tanner_Drborn_345kV PJM $136, $173 Approximately $10.6 Million was settled in 2013 and 2014; these 10 flowgates counted for 91% of the total amount 5
6 Benefit Analysis Setup Breed_Wheatland 345 flo Jefferson_Rockport 765 Flowgate for 1/11/2013 $1.2 million RT JOA Settlement between MISO and PJM On average, PJM s Real Time Market Flow is 198 MW more than PJM s FFE On average, MISO s Real Time Market Flow is 152 MW less than MISO s FFE Detail is available under Appendix A What happens if we exchange some FFE MW in DA between MISO and PJM? 6
7 Analysis Description Method 1 Exchange 20 MW between MISO and PJM in DA markets Method 2 Exchange 60% of the anticipated RT MW EXCG between MISO and PJM in DA markets Other methods are available and will be further explored during the business process design phase 7
8 Method 1 Fixed MW Exchange Flowgate: Breed - Wheatland 345 flo Jefferson_Rockport765 Action: MISO reduced DA limit by 20 MW and PJM increased DA limit by 20 MW $25,000 DA Production Cost Savings $23,147 $120,000 $100,000 RT JOA Settlement Savings $101,014 $20,000 $80,000 $15,000 $60,000 $10,000 $40,000 $5,000 ($2,025) $20,000 ($2,434) $0 ($5,000) MISO DA Market Production Savings PJM DA Market Production Savings $0 ($20,000) DA Settlement to MISO Reduced JOA Settlement to MISO Analysis setup data is available in Appendix B More result detail is available in Appendix D and Appendix F 8
9 Method 1 Fixed MW Exchange Overall DA production cost savings for the 2 RTOs MISO s DA Savings = -$2025 PJM s DA Savings = $23,147 DA shadow price vs RT shadow price for the constraint Average DA Shadow Price = $5.29 Average RT Shadow Price = $ Overall reduced JOA settlement for the 2 RTOs Original RT JOA Settlement = $ 1,221, Adjusted RT JOA Settlement = $ 1,120, RT JOA Settlement Savings = $101,014 DA JOA Settlement = -$2,434 9
10 Method 2 60% MW EXCG Flowgate: Breed - Wheatland 345 flo Jefferson_Rockport765 Action: MISO reduce DA limit by 60% of (PJM MF-PJM FFE) and PJM increase DA limit by 60% of (PJM RT MF-PJM RT FFE) $40,000 $30,000 DA Production Cost Savings $28,779 $800,000 $700,000 RT JOA Settlement Savings $732,788 $20,000 $600,000 $10,000 ($28,203) $500,000 $0 ($10,000) MISO DA Market Production Savings PJM DA Market Production Savings $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 ($20,000) $100,000 ($54,285) ($30,000) ($40,000) $0 ($100,000) DA Settlement to MISO Reduced JOA Settlement to MISO Analysis setup data is available in Appendix C More result detail is available in Appendix E and Appendix G 10
11 Method 2 Fixed MW Exchange Overall DA production cost savings for the 2 RTOs MISO s DA Savings = -$28,203 PJM s DA Savings = $28,779 DA shadow price vs RT shadow price for the constraint Average DA Shadow Price = $16.91 Average RT Shadow Price = $ Overall reduced JOA settlement for the 2 RTOs Original RT JOA Settlement = $ 1,221, Adjusted RT JOA Settlement = $ 488, RT JOA Settlement Savings = $ 732,788 DA JOA Settlement to MISO = -$ 54,285 11
12 Summary Based on a sampling of one constraint over the period of 1 day and applying two different methods, benefits were observed in terms of: Overall DA production cost savings for the 2 RTOs Even there is a increase in DA production cost for MISO, it is offset by the production savings seen in PJM s DA market DA shadow price vs RT shadow price for the constraint DA shadow prices for the 2 methods are significantly lower than those observed in RT Overall reduced RT JOA settlement for the 2 RTOs Both methods shown significant RT JOA settlement savings 12
13 Appendix
14 A. RT JOA Settlement Data for 01/11/2013 Hour Ending MISO RT SP MISO RT MF MISO RT FFE Usage PJM RT SP PJM RT MF PJM RT FFE Usage MISO Credit 1/11/2013 1:00 $ $ $ /11/2013 2: /11/2013 3: /11/2013 4: /11/2013 5:00 $ $ $57, /11/2013 6:00 $ $ $86, /11/2013 7:00 $ $ $62, /11/2013 8:00 $ $ $192, /11/2013 9:00 $ $ $38, /11/ :00 $ $ $237, /11/ :00 $ $ $21, /11/ :00 $ $ $7, /11/ :00 $ $ $15, /11/ :00 $ $ $38, /11/ :00 $ $ $25, /11/ :00 $ $ $13, /11/ :00 $ $ $93, /11/ :00 $ $ $29, /11/ :00 $ $ $103, /11/ :00 $ $ $183, /11/ :00 $ $ $10, /11/ :00 $ $ $3, /11/ :00 $ $ $ /12/2013 0: Average Usage Return to presentation 14
15 B. Method 1 Setup Hour Ending MISO RT SP MISO RT MF MISO RT FFE Updated MISO DA MISO Limit = MISO DA DA Limit Limit -40 MW PJM RT SP PJM RT MF PJM RT FFE PJM DA Limit Updated PJM DA Limit = PJM DA Limit +40 MW MISO RT Credit 1/11/2013 1:00 $ $ $ /11/2013 2:00 $ $ /11/2013 3:00 $ $ /11/2013 4:00 $ $ /11/2013 5:00 $ $ $ 57, /11/2013 6:00 $ $ $ 86, /11/2013 7:00 $ $ $ 62, /11/2013 8:00 $ $ $ 192, /11/2013 9:00 $ $ $ 38, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 237, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 21, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 7, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 15, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 38, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 25, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 13, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 93, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 29, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 103, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 183, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 10, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 3, /11/ :00 $ $ $ /12/2013 0:00 $ $ Return to presentation 15
16 C. Method 2 Setup Hour Ending MISO RT SP MISO RT MF MISO MISO DA RT FFE Limit Update MISO DA Limit= MISO DA Limit-0.6*MW EXCG PJM RT SP PJM RT MF PJM RT FFE PJM DA Limit Updated PJM DA Limit = PJM DA Limit + 0.6*MW EXCG MW EXCG= PJM MF-PJM FFE MISO Credit 1/11/2013 1:00 $ $ $ /11/2013 2:00 $ $ /11/2013 3:00 $ $ /11/2013 4:00 $ $ /11/2013 5:00 $ $ $ 57, /11/2013 6:00 $ $ $ 86, /11/2013 7:00 $ $ $ 62, /11/2013 8:00 $ $ $ 192, /11/2013 9:00 $ $ $ 38, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 237, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 21, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 7, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 15, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 38, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 25, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 13, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 93, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 29, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 103, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 183, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 10, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 3, /11/ :00 $ $ $ /12/2013 0:00 $ $ Return to presentation 16
17 D. DA Settlement Data for Method 1 MISO DA SP Adjusted DA Limit Original DA Limit 01:00 ($4.01) ($80.20) 02:00 ($2.22) ($44.40) 03:00 ($4.05) ($81.00) 04:00 ($3.39) ($67.80) 05:00 ($10.46) ($209.20) 06:00 ($11.75) ($235.00) 07:00 ($24.53) ($490.60) 18:00 ($13.08) ($261.60) 19:00 ($4.30) ($86.00) 20:00 ($4.61) ($92.20) 21:00 ($7.68) ($153.60) 22:00 ($8.65) ($173.00) 23:00 ($4.74) ($94.80) DA Settlements to MISO = MISO SP*(Original DA Limit-Adjusted DA Limit) 24:00 ($18.22) ($364.40) Total = ($2,433.80) Return to presentation 17
18 E. DA Settlement Data for Method 2 MISO DA SP Adjusted DA Limit Original DA Limit DA Settlements to MISO = MISO SP*(Original DA Limit- Adjusted DA Limit) 01:00 ($8.40) ($1,058.40) 02:00 ($6.59) ($533.79) 03:00 ($4.14) ($57.96) 04:00 ($3.59) ($104.11) 05:00 ($16.57) ($2,203.81) 06:00 ($19.95) ($2,533.65) 07:00 ($40.28) ($5,598.92) 08:00 ($52.01) ($7,905.52) 09:00 ($8.19) ($1,212.12) 10:00 ($3.07) ($521.90) 17:00 ($10.04) ($1,536.12) 18:00 ($57.92) ($7,819.20) 19:00 ($46.06) ($6,172.04) 20:00 ($37.26) ($6,222.42) 21:00 ($34.36) ($5,531.96) 22:00 ($19.65) ($2,220.45) 23:00 ($14.57) ($1,515.28) 24:00 ($23.30) ($1,537.80) Total = ($ ) Return to presentation 18
19 F. Updated JOA Settlement Data for Method 1 Hour Ending MISO RT SP MISO RT MF MISO RT FFE PJM RT SP PJM RT MF PJM RT FFE Updated PJM RT FFE = PJM RT FFE+20MW MISO RT Credit Updated MISO RT Credit = MISO SP * (PJM RT MF-Updated PJM RT FFE) 1/11/2013 1:00 $ $ $ $ /11/2013 2:00 $ $ /11/2013 3:00 $ $ /11/2013 4:00 $ $ /11/2013 5:00 $ $ $ 57, $ 52, /11/2013 6:00 $ $ $ 86, $ 77, /11/2013 7:00 $ $ $ 62, $ 57, /11/2013 8:00 $ $ $ 192, $ 176, /11/2013 9:00 $ $ $ 38, $ 35, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 237, $ 220, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 21, $ 19, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 7, $ 6, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 15, $ 13, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 38, $ 33, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 25, $ 21, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 13, $ 12, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 93, $ 86, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 29, $ 26, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 103, $ 94, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 183, $ 170, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 10, $ 9, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 3, $ 3, /11/ :00 $ $ $ $ /12/2013 0:00 $ $ Total MISO Credit $ 1,221, $ 1,120, Return to presentation 19
20 G. Updated JOA Settlement Data for Method 2 Hour Ending MISO RT SP MISO RT MF MISO RT FFE PJM RT SP PJM RT MF PJM RT FFE Updated PJM RT FFE = PJM RT FFE+0.6*MW EXCG MISO RT Credit Updated MISO RT Credit = MISO SP * (PJM RT MF-Updated PJM RT FFE) 1/11/2013 1:00 $ $ $ $ /11/2013 2:00 $ $ /11/2013 3:00 $ $ /11/2013 4:00 $ $ /11/2013 5:00 $ $ $ 57, $ 23, /11/2013 6:00 $ $ $ 86, $ 34, /11/2013 7:00 $ $ $ 62, $ 24, /11/2013 8:00 $ $ $ 192, $ 76, /11/2013 9:00 $ $ $ 38, $ 15, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 237, $ 95, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 21, $ 8, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 7, $ 2, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 15, $ 6, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 38, $ 15, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 25, $ 10, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 13, $ 5, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 93, $ 37, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 29, $ 11, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 103, $ 41, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 183, $ 73, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 10, $ 4, /11/ :00 $ $ $ 3, $ 1, /11/ :00 $ $ $ $ /12/2013 0:00 $ $ Total MISO Credit $ 1,221, $ 488, Return to presentation 20
21 Contacts Beibei Li Bao Tran
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