Kamla-Raj 2015 J Hum Ecol, 49(3): (2015)

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1 Kamla-Raj 2015 J Hum Ecol, 49(3): (2015) The Rural Exodus of Young Farmers and ts Impact on the Shortage of Labor and Food Crop Producton n Cameroon: A Computable General Equlbrum Model s Analyss Achlle Jean Jaza Folefack * Unversty of Dschang, Cameroon KEYWORDS Mgraton. Cty. Vllage. Wage. Sklled. Unsklled ABSTRACT Usng a Computable General Equlbrum (CGE) model, ths paper evaluates the mpact of rural exodus on rural labor scarcty and domestc output and export of food crops n Cameroon. Model results ndcate that, when 5 to 40 per cent of vllagers mgrate to the cty, the urban unsklled labor force ncreases from to per cent. For the same rural-to-cty mgraton rate, the domestc output of food crops falls down from to per cent, the export of food crops also drops down from to per cent, and the rural labor wage ncreases from to per cent whereas the urban unsklled labor wage rather decreases from to per cent. In order to lmt rural exodus and ts negatve effects n rural areas, the government should mplement polces whch mprove the productvty of the rural farmers such as a well mproved socal securty system for health, a farly land dstrbuton, the award of credt, subsdy or hgher wage for machne acquston. 1. INTRODUCTION Lke n most developng countres, the Cameroon s economy depends manly on agrculture. Ths sector contrbutes for 30 per cent of the Gross Domestc Product and 60 per cent of exported revenues. About 60 per cent of the country s populaton stll lves n the rural areas wth agrculture beng ther man occupaton (Mnstry of Agrculture 2014). However, the State dsengagement and lberalzaton polcy mplemented n the agrcultural sector from the early 1990s led to the removal of most subsdes from the agrculture (Defranc 1995; Nchare 2002). Stll under trade lberalzaton, the cancellaton of the man mport tarff/non-tarff barrers has further engendered a market competton between the mported commodtes and local producton gvng rse to lower proft ganed by rural farmers. Progressvely, the young farmers are dscouraged by the less rewardng rural farmng actvtes and prefer to mgrate to the cty to mprove ther lvng condtons. Ther movement commonly known as rural exodus mples ther dsplacement from the rural areas (vllages) towards the * Address for correspondence: Dr. Jaza Folefack Achlle Jean Unversty of Dschang P.O. Box Yaoundé, Cameroon Telephone: (237) E-mal: ajazafol@yahoo.fr ctes n the search of well-beng. Hence, the current urban populaton growth of about 5 per cent per year n the man Cameroonan ctes (Yaoundé, Douala, Bafoussam, Garoua, etc.) s partcularly attrbuted to the rural exodus whch accounts for a rate of about 2.8 per cent per year (Mnstry of Plan 2014; Mnstry of Agrculture 2014; Nanhou 1998). Ths rural exodus manly affected the young people between 15 to 35 years of age. Ths age group accounts for 30.3 per cent of the total populaton of Cameroon, but over 36 per cent of these young people are strongly ht by poverty whch s the man factor encouragng ther movement from the vllage to the cty leavng, thereby, only the older people n the vllage (Mnstry of Plan 2014; Emn et al. 2005). The average age of farmers resdng n the rural areas (vllages) whch was 31 years durng the early 1990s has regretfully ncreased to 40 years nowadays (Mnstry of Plan 2014). The rural exodus s the man factor whch explaned ths ncreasng mean age over the years of farmers lvng n the vllages (Mnstry of Agrculture 2014). As a matter of fact, wth tme, more and more young farmers are leavng the vllage towards the cty to look for new job opportuntes or workng alternatves. The fact that agrculture s less rewardng than other sectors encouraged young people to further, mgrate to the cty where they hope to fnd better workng condtons or well pad jobs. For nstance, one day (8 hours) of manual labor done by a person workng n the rural farm-

2 198 ACHILLE JEAN JAZA FOLEFACK ng sector s worth at about 1500 FCFA (2.29 Euros) whch s the equvalent cost of one sngle hour of job n the urban sectors of ndustry, servce or urban agrculture (Mnstry of Agrculture 2014). At such hgher wage rate assocated wth luxury lesure actvtes that they hope to fnd n the vcnty of urban areas, young farmers are attracted to mgrate to the cty. Other young farmers would also lke to settle down n ther natve vllage but are dscouraged by the land scarcty problem n rural areas. Thus, ther mgraton to the cty s n the hope to fnd alternatve jobs n the new place of resdence. However, n the urban areas, t s also not so easy to get any job snce the youth unemployment rate stands at over 20 per cent, compared to over 5 per cent n rural areas (Mnstry of Plan 2014; World Bank 2014). Ths hgh unemployment rate n ctes, apart from the rural exodus, s also due to the declne n the number of jobs avalable n the modern sectors of ndustry and servce. Further, up to 40 per cent of the rural nhabtants are llterate persons who never receve any basc tranng or formal educaton (Mnstry of Plan 2014; World Bank 2014).Thus, at ther arrval n the urban areas, t s expected that they wll offer only the unsklled labor to the job market. Hence, once at the cty, the mgrated rural labor force becomesthe urban unsklled laborers whch n 70 per cent of cases would work nto the small jobs of the nformal sector (Jaza Folefack 2005). Alternatvely, the remanng 30 per cent of mgrants would receve tranng and enters nto competton wth the urban sklled labor at the cty (Mnstry of Agrculture 2014). Remarkably, about 85 per cent of the newly arrved unsklled mgrants orgnate from very poor famles (Emn et al. 2005; Nanhou 1998; Ekpenyong 1984; Zhu and Luo 2010). So, ther dependants (wfe, chldren, frends, relatves, etc.) who remaned n the vllages are also countng on them to earn ther lfe (Mnstry of Agrculture 2014). Thus, the urgent challenge for the new mgrants s to struggle to seek an employment n order to survve n the cty whle helpng ther relatves n the vllage. Accordng to the Mnstry of Plan (2014), more than 80 per cent of the newly arrved mgrants remans unemployed wthn 6 to 9 months after ther mgraton at the cty, although, they are fghtng every day to enter nto the job market or to seek a new workng place. Generally, the faclty/probablty to quckly fnd a job at the cty depends on several factors among whch the luck, frendshp, or mentorshp by a relatve or well postoned cvl servant n the admnstraton/government who can recommend/sponsor the mgrant n the search of an employment. In any case, for the new mgrant, seekng an employment at the cty s not an easy task and needs a lot of patence (Mnstry of Agrculture 2014). Consequently, the rural exodus brngs two smultaneous ssues n both extremes of the way (that s, rural areas and cty): (1)-On the one hand, n the rural areas, there s a gap created through the abandoned agrcultural actvtes by young farmers who left the vllages. Thus, one observes a drop n the food crop producton as well as an economc and socal dsrupton caused by the rapd dsplacement of workers from agrculture n rural areas (Bhasn 2008). (2)-On the other sde, at the cty, there s employment n securty and, thus, a doubt whether the new mgrants, once arrved at the cty, wll easly get a job to survve, help relatves n vllages or contrbute to the development of ther rural areas and even to the development of the country. Objectves The man objectve of the study s to evaluate the mpact of rural exodus on rural labor scarcty and domestc output and export of food crops n Cameroon. More specfcally, the paper seeks to: () Assess the effect of rural exodus of young farmers on rural labor scarcty and domestc output and exports of food crops. () Examne solutons and suggest recommendatons to government n order to face the shortage of rural labor and food crops created by the rural-to-cty mgraton of vllagers. MATERIAL AND METHODS Model Choce and Lterature Revew Addressng the above rural exodus questons n relaton to the agrcultural sector are n the hands of polcy makers. On ther sde, polcy makers depend on models for the smulaton or analyss of polces. Those analyses extend from

3 LABOR SHORTAGE AND FOOD CROP PRODUCTION 199 partal equlbrum to general equlbrum models. A partal equlbrum model conssted of a greater number of commodtes wthn the agrcultural sector and, thus, consders the effect on more specfc agrcultural products, but t faled to measure the smultaneous mpacts n other sectors of the economy. A Computable General Equlbrum (CGE) model however, covers all sectors of the economy and can n ths respect measure the effect of agrculture connected to other sectors (Hazell and Norton 1986; Bauer and Kasnakoglu 1990). The CGE models are generally requred to understand the lnkages between macroeconomc shocks and ther mpacts at the mcro-level. They are preferred to the partal equlbrum models because they can explan the nter-lnkages among the varous sectors of the economy. Snce the last few decades, a number of emprcal studes have been done to analyze and evaluate the mpacts of varous polces n the agrcultural sector n developng countres. Those studes have constructed varous models by employng a mathematcal programmng approach and namely the lnear, non-lnear programmng or CGE models (Hazell and Norton 1986; Bauer and Kasnakoglu 1990). In Cameroon, many prevous studes have also employed a mathematcal programmng approach and were based namely on the CGE models coverng all sectors of the economy. For nstance, Condon et al. (1987) and Devarajan and Rodrk (1989) have constructed and appled CGE models for Cameroon usng NLP (Non-Lnear Programmng), CNS (Constraned Nonlnear System), MCP (Mxed Complementary Programmng) and MPSGE (Mathematcal Programmng System for General Equlbrum analyss). In the same lne, Njnkeu and Bamou (2002) smulated wth a CGE model for Cameroon the trade and exchange rate polcy optons for the countres of the CFA Franc zone whereas Thele and Webelt (1993) have also used a CGE model for explanng the causes of over explotaton and depleton of ran forests n Cameroon. Recently, thanks to an update CGE model for Cameroon, Djofack (2008) analyzed the effect of the trade lberalzaton on the telecommuncaton servces n Cameroon. However, none of the prevous CGE models of Cameroon was used to analyze the mpact of rural exodus on the food crop sector. Hence, ths study covers ths gap by evaluatng the mpact of rural exodus of young farmers on the food crop producton (domestc output/sales, export, producer prce, etc.) and labor shortage n rural areas. For ths reason, a CGE model for Cameroon s used n ths paper. Model Descrpton and Verbal Presentaton In the present research, the mpact of rural exodus of young farmers on the food crop sector s analyzed by usng a Cameroon s CGE model ntally constructed by Condon et al. (1987) whch was recently updated by Emn and World Bank (2004).The man features/characterstcs of ths CGE model are the followngs (Emn and World Bank 2004): 11 economc sectors wth 9 tradable and 2 non-tradable. The 9 tradable sectors of the model are: food crops, cash crops, forestry, food processng, consumer goods, ntermedate goods, constructon materals, captal goods and prvate servces. Constructon and publc servces are the 2 non-tradable sectors of the model. 3 labor categores wth dfferentated wages whch are the: rural, urban unsklled and urban sklled labor categores. It should be noted, however, thatlabor s moble across sectors. That means that the same labor wage/ salary rate s pad for each sector. The model also assumed that, ths labormay or may not be fully employed. Captal s fxed n the model. Insttutons are the households and government. The goods produced are consumed domestcally and one part s exported. Domestc sales and exports are assumed to be mperfect substtutes and the functon whch transforms domestc sales and exports s called the Constant Elastcty of Transformaton (CET) functon (Devarajan et al.1997; Sadoulet and De Janvry 1995). Model data are organsed n the form of a Socal Accountng Matrx (SAM)whch was recently constructed by Emn and World Bank (2004). Mathematcal Presentaton of the Model The Cameroon s CGE model from Emn and World Bank (2004) contans a huge number of equatons and all of them cannot be presented

4 200 ACHILLE JEAN JAZA FOLEFACK wthn an artcle (because of the number of pages lmtaton). Hence, ths secton presents only those mathematcal equatons whch are of great nterest n relaton to our topc and namely the producton and nput demand functons, Constant Elastcty of Transformaton (CET) functon and the producer prce functon. Producton and Input Demand Functons In defnng producton technology, the Constant Elastcty of Substtuton (CES) producton functon s used n our CGE model. The producton of goods and servces s consdered by a set of sectors and t s assumed that each sector produces a sngle good/servce. The sector account receves revenues from sellng the good/ servce and pays for ntermedate nputs and wages (rents) to prmary factors. The producton system s consdered n two steps: at the frst step, labor and captal are combned to produce value-added and at the second step, value-added and composte ntermedates are re-combned for domestc output (Sadoulet and De Janvry1995). The producton functon s therefore specfed as: 1 ρ.. p ( 1 ). p ρ ρ p = β x ν + ν X VA IN (1) Where: stands for sector, X s the sectoral output, VA s the sectoral value-added, IN s the sectoral composte ntermedate, s a shft p 1 parameter and ρ = 1 p s the share parameter σ for value-added and, wth standng for elastcty for substtuton between VA and IN. Smlarly, another CES producton functon s used to combne labor and captal for valueadded and s specfed n the followng functon as: (2) Where: L s labor, s captal, s a shft parameter, s the labor share parameter and wth stands for elastcty of substtuton between labor and captal. The producers are proft maxmzers and the factor demand functons can be derved from the frst order condton for maxmzaton of proft functon subject to the CES producton functon. Accordngly, the value-added demand functon takes the form: (3) Where: PN s composte ntermedate nput prce at the sector level, PV s value-added prce; other notatons are as specfed earler. Smlarly, the labor demand functon can be expressed as: (4) Where: and are sectoral wage and wage proportonalty factors, respectvely; s the prce of captal goods n sector ; other notatons are as specfed earler. Constant Elastcty of Transformaton (CET) and Export Supply Functons The mperfect transformablty between domestc sales D and exports E s consdered n a Constant Elastcty of Transformaton (CET) functon (also named as output transformaton functon). The CET functon s specfed as: t νν PD (5) k PPN σ 1 t σ. D + PEE t t ρ. PX σ ν l LX E p 1 ρ ρ = KIN υpe λ E(1. + λ( ) 1 λ Where: w PV. (1 E s l ν ) ). D. X ( ) ν ν ρ ν ρ ρ VA = β ν l. L + 1 l. K D sectoral exports, D ssectoral PD λ domestc sales; and are shft and share parameters, respectvely and elastcty of transformaton s gven by For the CET functon, E and D are consdered as outputs. The optmal combnaton of domestc sales and exports s expressed through the export supply functon as: (6) Where: s the elastcty of transformaton between domestc output sold domestcally and exports. Producer Prce Functon The sales or actvty prce for producer s composed of domestc prce of domestc sales and the domestc prce of exports. It s mathematcally expressed as: (7) Where: PX s the producer prce, PD s the prce of domestcally produced goods sold n

5 LABOR SHORTAGE AND FOOD CROP PRODUCTION 201 the domestc market, PE s the domestc prce of export; other notatons are as specfed earler. Scenaros Specfcaton In ths paper, the man scenarosrun n the Cameroon s CGE model s: an ncrease n the rate of rural exodus by 5 per cent, 10 per cent, 15 per cent, 20 per cent, 25 per cent, 30 per cent, 35 per cent and 40 per cent, respectvely. In these scenaros, we wll smulate the effect of rural exodus on the labor use, labor wage and domestc output and exports of food crops sector. Ths CGE model s solved n General Algebrac Modelng System (GAMS) software whch s n the Mxed Complementarty (MCP) form. The effect of a X per cent rate of rural exodus was put nto the model by typng the commands wrtten n the GAMSsyntax as follows: ls.fx( Rural )=(100-X) * sum(,xle(, Rural )); (8) ls.fx ( Urbanunskll ) =sum (,xle (, Urbanunskll )) + X * sum(,xle(, Rural ); (9) Where: stands for sector; ls s labor supply; xle s the employment by sector and labor category; Rural and Urban unskll stand for the rural and urban unsklled labor categores, respectvely; fx denotes fxed n GAMS syntax. From these commands, the smulated model results are dsplayed n absolute terms. However, n order to better nterpret them,they areconverted nto relatve valuesy (percentage of change compared to the base run) by usng the followng formula: (10) Even before the varous scenaros were run, the model was valdated and t was found that the baselne optmal soluton from the model exactly dsplayed the feld data wth regards to the labor use, labor wage and food crops output. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Effect of the Rural Exodus on the Total Labor Use The smulated results of the mpact of the rural exodus on the total labor force (that s the total avalablelabor after the mgraton has occurred) are presented n Table 1. The Table shows that, as more vllagers mgrate to the cty, the urban unsklled labor force ncreases. The ncrease s, however, more rapd than the rural exodus rate. At a constant rural-to-cty mgraton rate, one observes that the urban unsklled labor force ncreases at an ncreasng rate. More precsely, when the rate of rural exodus s ncreased by 5 per cent, 10 per cent, 15 per cent, 20 per cent, 25 per cent, 30 per cent, 35 per cent and 40 per cent, then the urban unsklled labor would be ncreased by per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent and per cent, respectvely (see Table 1). As earler mentoned,the majorty (about 60%) of the Cameroon s populaton lves n the rural areas (Mnstry of Agrculture 2014; World Bank 2014). Knowng that the unsklled labor force s a small part of the 40 per cent people lvng n the cty, ts hgher ncrease from the rural exodus effect could be attrbuted to ths smaller proporton. Obvously, the urban sklled laborremans unchanged (constantly at 0.00 per cent ) for all the rates of rural exodus (see Table 1). Ths tendency ( Smulated results Results from formula (8) and (9) ntroduced )*100 = nto the model and whch 100 state that, the rural Base Run Results people who newly arrve at the cty would entrely become the unsklled labor wth none person workng as sklled labor. Effect of Rural Exodus on the Wage of Dfferent Labor Categores WageVaraton of Rural Populaton In rural areas, the labor supply s fxed and assumed to be perfectly nelastc. In Fgure 1, an ncrease of the rural exodus rate mples a decrease of the labor supply quantty from Q 1 to Q 2, or smply s a shft of the labor supply curve from S 1 to S 2.Ths shft n ts turn wll lead to a movement of the ntersecton/equlbrum pont of the demand (D) and supply (S) curves and therefore, the wage wll ncrease from W 1 to W 2. Table 1: Impact of an ncrease of the rural exodus rate on the varaton (n %) of the total labor force by category Labor 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% category exodus exodus exodus exodus exodus exodus exodus exodus Rural Urban unsklled Urban sklled Source: CGE model results Y

6 202 ACHILLE JEAN JAZA FOLEFACK In Table 2, the effect of the rural exodus on the varaton of wage ganed by the rural populaton s shown. From the Table, one observes that the rural labor category gans hgher wage when more people move to the cty. More specfcally, when the rural exodus rate s ncreased by 5 per cent, 10 per cent, 15 per cent, 20 per cent, 25 per cent, 30 per cent, 35 per cent and 40 per cent, then the wage for the rural labor category would be ncreased by per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, % and %, respectvely (see Table 2).The explanng reason could be that, the rural-to-cty mgraton of vllagers would brng a shortage of labor n such a way that, the supply of labor s less than ts demand n the rural areas. Snce a proporton of rural labor force has moved/mgrated to the cty, those workers remanng n the vllage wll clam for hgher remuneraton and then, ther wage wll ncrease (see Fg. 1). Ths rural wage ncrease s, however, benefcal to those members of poor peasantry who dd not mgrate (preferrng to stay at the vllage), or have not yet jon the stream of mgrants. They wll beneft from an ncrease of ther ncome/lvng standard resultng from the more rewardng salary rate pad n the rural farmng sector. In ts base-run, ths CGE model assumes the same wage rate for each sector of the economy. Ths explans why n the smulated results, for a gven rural exodus rate, the wage varaton s also the same for each of the 11 sectors of the model (food crops, cash crops, forestry, food processng, consumer goods, ntermedate goods, constructon materals, captal goods, constructon, prvate servces, and publc servces). Theoretcally, no matter whether there s rural exodus or not, the country needs the same quantty of food crop to be produced n order to feed ts entre populaton. However, snce ths food crop s entrely produced n the rural areas, labor forces needed to work n the rural farms. Unfortunately, because of the rural exodus, the supply of rural labor s reduced whle the demand of labor s kept constant n vllages. Hence, the wage of rural labor would ncrease (see Fg. 1). Another example on a food crop such as green beans commonly produced n Cameroon s also llustratve. When green beans are already mature, a large number of people/laborersareurgently needed to harvest them otherwse they wll persh on the farm. When there s the mgraton of laborers to the cty, the green beans land sze n the followng croppng years s stll the same, meanng that the same labor force s needed durng the harvestng perod. But, snce there are only less people (thus less laborers) resdng n the vllage, those workerswho reman n the vllage are so much solcted to harvest n the plantatons. They wll refuse low salary/wage forcng thereby the farms owners to employ/pay them at a hgher wage. W S 2 S 1 W 2 As Q 1 decreases to Q 2, S 1 shfts to S 2 and W t ncreases to W 2 W 1 Q 2 Q 1 Q Fg. 1. Effect of the ncrease of the labour productvty on the domestc sales (D) and exports (E) of food crops n output (CET) transformaton functon Source: Author s representaton

7 LABOR SHORTAGE AND FOOD CROP PRODUCTION 203 Wage Varaton of Urban Unsklled Populaton As earler mentoned, the mgrants to the cty are manly llterate farmers offerng unsklled labor at the job market (Mnstry of Agrculture 2014; World Bank 2014). Hence, ther arrval at the cty wll create an excess of the unsklled labor supply. In the new stuaton, we then have two sub-categores of the unsklled laborsupply: the unsklled who prevously/permanently resde at the cty and the newly arrved unsklled labor. The two sub-categores wll both gve an excess supply of unsklled labor at the cty and n ths case, the total supply of unsklled labor at the cty s hgher than ts demand. Thus, the urban unsklled wage would decrease as stpulated by the standard demand and supply economc theory. In the cty, the unsklled labor supply s fxed and assumed to be perfectly nelastc. As llustrated graphcally (Fg. 2), an ncrease of the rural exodus rate mples an ncrease of the unsklled labor supply quantty from Q 1 to Q 2, or smply s a shft of the labor supply curve from S 1 to S 2. Ths shft n ts turn wll lead to a movement of the ntersecton/equlbrum pontof the demand (D) and supply (S) curves and, therefore, the wage for unsklled labor wll decrease from W 1 to W 2. In Table 2, one observes that, the wage rate for the urban unsklled labor category strongly decreases as more farmers are mgratng to the cty. More precsely, when the rate of rural exodus s ncreased by 5 per cent, 10 per cent, 15 per cent, 20 per cent, 25 per cent, 30 per cent, 35 per cent and 40 per cent, then the wage for the urban unsklled labor category decreases by per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent and per cent, respectvely (see Table 2). Ths smply mpled that,the more vllagers leave rural areas, the more we have mgrants settled at the cty, and the more we would have excess of the unsklled labor at the cty and thus, the wage rate would more and more decrease for ths labor category. Table 2: Impact of an ncrease of the rate of rural exodus on the wage varaton (n %) by labor category Labor 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% category exodus exodus exodus exodus exodus exodus exodus exodus Rural Urban unsklled Urban sklled Source: CGE model results W S 1 S 2 W 1 As Q 1 ncreases to Q 2, S1 shfts to S 2 and W t decreases to W 2 W 2 D Q 1 Q 2 Q Fg. 2. Effect of the rural exodus on the varaton of wage ganed by the urban unsklled populaton Source: Author s representaton

8 204 ACHILLE JEAN JAZA FOLEFACK Wage Varaton of Urban Sklled Populaton The newly arrved mgrants at the cty wll face a competton wth those sklled people who are already permanent resdent at the cty. The competton s created by the fact that, some new mgrants, once arrved at the cty (although unsklled at the begnnng) wll receve tranng n order to become sklled labor. After the tranng, they become rval/concurrent of the permanent resdent s sklled labor. In the new stuaton, there s excess of sklled labor ndcatng that, the total supply of sklled labors greater than ts demand and thus, the wage for the urban sklled labor would decrease. In the cty, the sklled labor supply s fxed and assumed to be perfectly nelastc. As llustrated graphcally (Fg. 3), an ncrease of the rural exodus rate mples an ncrease of the sklled labor supply quantty from Q 1 to Q 2, or smply s a shft of the labor supply curve from S 1 to S 2. Ths shft n ts turn wll lead to a movement of the ntersecton/equlbrum pont of the demand (D) and supply (S) curves and, therefore, the wage for sklled labor wll decrease from W 1 to W 2. The computed fgures of Table 2 ndcate that, when the rate of rural exodus s ncreased by 5 per cent, 10 per cent, 15 per cent, 20 per cent, 25 per cent, 30 per cent, 35 per cent and 40 per cent, then the wage for the urban sklled labor category s decreased by per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent and per cent, respectvely (see Table 2). Ths wage decrease can be explaned by the fact that, once the new mgrants receve tranng and become qualfed workers at the cty; they would tend to easly accept lower salary because they are comparng t to the lower or no wage stuaton they faced durng ther vllage-stay. From the model results, the lower wage receved by the urban sklled peoplecanalso be explaned by the drop of the government revenue and expendture. The more we have hgher rural exodus rate, the more and more the country s economy wll lose manly because the actvtes and money earned by mgrants s usually channeled n a more nformal way (Nanhou 1998; Ekpenyong 1984). Channelng money through nformal way mples a drop n government revenue whch n ts turn stmulates the State authortes to spend less money on payng ts cvl servants (represented by the urban sklled labor n ths case). Impact of the Rural Exodus on the Producton of Food Crops Ths CGE model also helps us to measure the mpact of the rural exodus on the producton of food crops. Ths effect s measured by varyng the rural exodus rate and observng the changes on the domestc output/sales and exports.ths secton presents the detals of these changes. W S 1 S 2 W 1 As Q 1 ncreases to Q 2, S1 shfts to S 2 and W t decreases to W 2 W 2 D Q 1 Q 2 Q Fg. 3. Effect of the rural exodus on the varaton of wage ganed by the urban sklled populaton Source: Author s representaton

9 LABOR SHORTAGE AND FOOD CROP PRODUCTION 205 Impact on the Domestc Output/Sales and Exports of Food Crops Usng an output (CET) transformaton functon, the smultaneous changes of the domestc output/sales and exports of food crops resultng from the rural exodus s evaluated. Because of the rural exodus, the domestc sales as well as exports of food crops drop down, and there s a shft or movement of the output (CET) transformaton functon nwards (see Fg. 4). Ths Fgure explaned that, before the mgraton, we are on CET 0 output transformaton functon and thus, the gven the avalable labor s L 0 whch can be used n order to produce a combnaton of D 0 domestc sales and E 0 exports. Now that the rural labor resource as dropped from L 0 to L 1 (as a result of the rural exodus), we are currently on CET 1 output transformaton functon, and then the new possble crop s output combnaton to produce becomes D 1 domestc sales and E 1 exports (see Fg. 4). The smulated results of Table 3 suggest that, when the rate of rural exodus s ncreased by 5 per cent, 10 per cent, 15 per cent, 20 per cent, 25 per cent, 30 per cent, 35 per cent and 40 per cent, then the domestc output of food crops would be decreased by per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent and per cent, respectvely. Smlarly, for the same rural-to-cty mgraton rates, the domestc sales of food crops are decreased by -1.90%, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent and per cent, respectvely. And lkewse, stll at the same mgraton rates, the exports of food crops are decreased by per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent and per cent, respectvely. Interpretaton of Computed Results from the Labor Producton Elastctes The decreasng trend of domestc output of food crops can better be understood by comparng the labor producton elastctes between Table 3: Impact of an ncrease of rural exodus rate on the varaton (n %) of domestc output, domestc sales and exports of food crops Labor 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% category exodus exodus exodus exodus exodus exodus exodus exodus Domestc output Domestc sales Exports Source: CGE model results Fg. 4. Output (CET) transformaton functon showng the rural exodus effect on the domestc sales (D) and exports (E) of food crops Source: Author s representaton

10 206 ACHILLE JEAN JAZA FOLEFACK Table 4: Labor producton elastctes (unty) from Cobb-Douglas producton functon Labor Rural Urban Urban category (Vllage) unsklled sklled sector (Cty) (Cty) Food crops Source:Data from CGE model rural populaton (0.592) and urban-unsklled people n the cty (0.058) (see Table 4). The fgures n Table 4 ndcated that, for the food crop sector, the labor producton elastcty of rural populaton (0.592) s hgher than that of the urban unsklled people (0.058). Ther nterpretaton s that (Table 5), a 1 per cent decrease of labor (as provoked by the mgraton of 1 per cent people) would lead to a decrease by per cent of food crops output n rural areas. Ths 1 per cent labor force wll move to the cty and ther arrval n the urban area would lead to an ncrease n the food crop output by only per cent (see Table 5). Thus, for the food crop sector, the labor s more productve n rural areas than n the cty. Snce the food crops are manly cultvated n rural areas and rarely n the cty, ths explans why a decrease of labor n rural areas wll tend to affect much more the food crop sector. From Table 5, one can smlarly nterpret the results for other rural exodus rates. Comparng Tables 3 and 5 altogether, one can easly see that, at each rural exodus rate, the percentage of crop decrease by usng the producton elastcty n- Table 5: Effect of the labor producton elastctes (å) on the varaton of food crops output n rural areas and cty Labor 1% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% category exodus exodus exodus exodus exodus exodus exodus exodus exodus Output decrease (%) n vllages Output ncrease (%) n cty Notes: () () The output change at X% exodus rate s equal to: å*x; where: å s the labor producton elastcty. In rural areas (vllages), the labor producton elastcty å s 0.592; Thus, the food crop output decrease at a rate X of 5% exodus s: å*x=0.592*5=2.96; at a rate X of 10% exodus s: å*x=0.592*10=5.92 and so on. () At the cty, the labor producton elastcty å s 0.058; Thus, the food crop output ncrease at a rate X of 5% exodus s: å*x=0.058*5=0.29; at a rate X of 10% exodus s: å*x=0.058*10=0.58 and so on. Source: Author smanual computaton Fg. 5. Effect of the ncrease of the labour productvty on the domestc sales (D) and exports (E) of food crops n output (CET) transformaton functon Source: Author s representaton

11 LABOR SHORTAGE AND FOOD CROP PRODUCTION 207 terpretaton s very smlar to the decrease of the domestc output n rural areas as computed by the model (see Table 3). Ths proves that, the decreasng trend of food crop output depends manly on the labor producton elastctes entered nto the model. Interpretaton of Computed Results from the Feld Realty The feld realty also testfes well a drop n the output of food crops due to the rural-to-cty mgraton of vllagers. The reasons explanng these arguments are that: (a) A rural exodus rate of X per cent mples that, one part (X%) of the rural populaton has moved to the cty and a proporton of only 100- X% of non-mgrants would reman n the vllage. Ths means that, the labor supply s reduced by X% n the vllage. The rural labor shortage/scarcty mples that, less labor force would stay n the vllage to produce food crops and thus, less parcels of land would be cultvated n the rural areas. The possble explanaton s that, when mgrants are movng to the cty, ther lands are left n fallow and thus there s a reducton of the land acreage under cultvaton n the vllage. Hence, the total output receved from the cultvated land wll be lower than before. (b) Further, mostly young men (15 to 35 years of age) mgrate to the cty and women plus old persons (above 65 years of age) reman n the vllage. Normally, the clearng of trees on land s a heavy task devoted to young men. Snce old persons or women cannot clear land durng the absence of ther husbands, the same land parcels are cultvated wthout fallow over several cycles of producton and become nfertle/unproductve over the tme. Ths could lead to a drop of total output from the land (Ekpenyong 1984). Ths decrease n the output n ts turn provokes a shortage/scarcty of food crop. In ths way, the supply of food crop s decreased whle ts demand s kept constant. Consequently, the producer prce would ncrease and ths s manly benefcal for the members of the poor peasantry who dd not mgrate (preferrng to stay at the vllage), or who have not yet jon the stream of mgrants. The model results confrm ths argument and the smulated fgures ndcate that, when the rate of rural exodus s ncreased by 5 per cent, 10 per cent, 15 per cent, 20 per cent, 25 per cent, 30 per cent, 35 per cent and 40 per cent, then the producer prce of food crop would ncrease by per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent, per cent and per cent, respectvely. Increase of Labor Productvty to Offset the Drop of Food Crop and Exports To offset the output decrease n food crop sector (see Table 3), the model, however, suggested that we should ncrease the labor productvty of the rural populaton. As shown n Fgure 5, f the farmers workng condtons are mproved (avalablty of modern machnes, technologcal advance n agrcultural mechanzaton, health securty of farmers, etc.), one can expect that the amount of workload performed from each hour of a worker s tme s mproved (that s, labor productvty s mproved) and thus the amount of food crops produced s ncreased. Graphcally represented (Fg. 5), the output (CET) transformaton functon shfts outwards from CET 0 to CET 1 wth the domestc sales ncreasng from D 0 to D 1 and the exports remanng constant at E 0. CONCLUSION Occurrng at a rate of about 2.8 percent per year, the rural exodus s currently one of the man challengng rural development ssues n Cameroon. Young farmers between 15 to 35 years of age, who accounts for 30.3 per cent out of 60 per cent of the rural laborforce, are strongly ht by ths phenomenon n a country where agrculture consttutes the prncpal engne for economc growth (contrbutng for 30 per cent of the Gross Domestc Product and 60 per cent of exported revenues). Thus, usng a Computable General Equlbrum (CGE) model for Cameroon, ths paper analyzed the mpact of the rural exodus of young farmers on the shortage of rural labor and food crop producton of the country. The study assumes that, the rural people become unsklled n most cases at ther arrval n the cty. The smulated model results show that, the urban unsklled populaton grows at a more rapd percentagethan the rural exodus rate. More precsely, when 5 to 40 per cent of vllagers mgrate to the cty, the urban unsklled people are ncreased from to per cent. In realty, the majorty (about 60%) of the Cameroon s populaton lves n the rural areas as compared to only 40 per cent of ctes resdents and ths tends to justfy why the rural exodus would brng hgher percentage of populaton ncrease n the cty.

12 208 ACHILLE JEAN JAZA FOLEFACK As ndcated by the model results, the rural exodus created a labor shortage n rural areas leadng to an ncrease n wage ganed by rural nhabtants who dd not mgrate and to a drop down n the salary of the urban unsklled and urban sklled populaton. When the rate of rural exodus s ncreased from 5 to 40 per cent, the rural labor wage s mproved from to percent. Stll when 5 to 40 per cent of vllagers mgrate to the cty, the labor wage rather declnes from to per cent for the urban unsklled and from to per cent for the urban sklled populaton. Hence, the wage varaton n the labor market s nfluenced by the rural exodus. A deplorable man observaton s the negatve effect of rural exodus on the domestc output and exports of the food crops. The domestc output s dropped down from to per cent when the rate of rural exodus s ncreased from 5 to 40 per cent. The exports are also decreased from to per cent for the same rural-to-cty mgraton rate. Ths output decrease s manly attrbuted to the producton elastcty of laborwhch s hgher n rural than n urban areas.hence, labor s more productve n rural areas than n ctes and the labor shortage n rural areas tends to sgnfcantly nfluence the domestc output and exports of food crops, generally cultvated n rural areas. However, an ncrease of the productvty of the rural populaton s able to offset ths decrease n the output and exports of food crops. RECOMMENDATIONS Credt Award for Machne Acquston Could Modernze Rural Farmers Actvtes To compensate the decrease of food crops domestc output provoked by the rural exodus, the government should encourage the use of agrcultural machnes and tractors n replacement of human labor force. Ths could be done by subsdzng agrcultural mechanzaton through the award of subsdzed credts to farmers wllng to modernze the cultvaton of ther farms usng specal equpment mported from developed countres. The advantage of replacement of machne by human labor force s n terms of qualty and quantty of work performed by a machne. It s revealed that some modern machnes work fve tmes faster and better than humans. All n all, usng machnes n replacement of humans would lead to hgher crop yelds as already experenced n most developed countres. Hence, t would be better for Cameroonan authortes to copy ths good experence. Improvement of Lvng Standard of Rural Farmers Could Increase Agrcultural Productvty Stll, to prevent a drop n the output of food crops due to the rural-to-cty mgraton of vllagers, the government should mprove the lvng and health condtons of rural farmers. Ths can be done by mplementng a well mproved socal securty system (currently nexstent) whch would enable a regular medcal check-up of farmers, by subscrbng each farmer to a medcal health nsurance for rsky agrcultural actvtes or by provdng retrement benefts whch arestll lackng to Cameroonan farmers. Dong that could lead to ncrease ther motvaton whch n ts turn also leads to an ncrease of ther productvty. Rural Actvtes Should be Pad at Hgher Rate As stated n the ntroducton, the wage rate of 1500 FCFA (2.29 Euros) per man-day currently pad to Cameroonan farmers resdng n rural areas s very low as compared to the ndustral or servce sector at the cty where the same amount s pad per man-hour of job. Hence, n order to motvate young farmers to stay n the vllages and dscourage them to mgrate to the cty, the salary should be adjusted at the same rate (or even hgher rate) n the rural farmng sector as n the ndustral and sector servces at the cty. Land Reform Could Enable Young Farmers to Own Land for Settlng Down n Rural Areas The farmers wth lttle land sze n vllages cannot count on ther farmng actvtes to fully satsfy the current famly needs such as survvng, gong to hosptals for treatment, payng school fees for chldren, tax money, mprovement of lvng condtons, etc. Thus, ther attempt to mgrate to the cty s hgh because they want to compensate the fnancal gap from the nsuffcent food crop producton they obtaned from ther small parcel n the vllage. Hence, a land reform whch gves larger parcels of land to young farmers or whch could oblge those who pos-

13 LABOR SHORTAGE AND FOOD CROP PRODUCTION 209 sess uncultvated land to regularly hre t to young farmers can help to lower the rural exodus rate. We therefore encourage the government to nclude the land reform polcy n ts agenda. Subsdy onmneral Fertlzer s Prce Could Encourage Young People to Invest n Farmng Actvtes At the present tme, farmers are payng a Value Added Tax (VAT) on the purchase of mneral fertlzer whch s the man nput used for food cropproducton. Snce 41 per cent of these farmers lve below the poverty lne, they currently face serous dffcultes to buy fertlzer whch was however hghly subsdzed (at about 65 per cent) by the government durng the perod precedng the lberalzaton. Hence, we recommend the government to remove the VAT tax on the market prce of ths nput and subsdze t as before to make ts prce more affordable to all farmers categores. Ths would better encourage more young farmers to reman n the farmng sector n the rural areas. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Much of ths study s based on Post-Doctoral research work that was funded by the Alexander von Humboldt (AvH) Foundaton at the Unversty of Bonn, Germany. The author wshes to thank the AvH for ts fnancal support. Specal acknowledgements are also addressed to the host supervsor (Prof. Dr. Thomas Heckele) as well as to the colleagues (namely to W. Brtz and A. Kuhn) of the Insttute of Food and Resource Economcs, Unversty of Bonn, Germany for ther useful advces provded durng the CGE modelng. REFERENCES Bauer S, Kasnakoglu H Non-lnear programmng models for sector and polcy analyss: Experences wth the Turksh agrcultural sector model. Economc Modellng, 7: Bhasn VK Agrcultural trade lberalzaton fnancng and ts mpact on poverty n Ghana. Afrcan Journal of Economc Polcy, 15(1): Condon T, Dahl H, Devarajan S Implementng a Computable General Equlbrum Model on GAMS: The Cameroon Model. Techncal Report. Washngton, Unted States: The World Bank, Defranc M L agrculture Camerounase: les grands axes de la poltque agrcole. Bulletn Regarder l Afrque, Mars Devarajan S, Rodrk D Pro-compettve Effects of Trade Reform: Results from a CGE Model of Cameroon. NBER Workng PapersN Devarajan S, Go SD, Lews JD, Robnson S, Snko P1997. Smple general equlbrum modelng. In: JF Francos, KA Renert (Eds.): Appled Methods for Trade Polcy Analyss: A Handbook. UK: Cambrdge Unversty Press. Djofack ZC Effet de la lbéralsaton du commerce des servces en Afrque. Thèse de Doctorat, Unversté d Auvergne, Clermont-Ferrand I, France. pp Ekpenyong S Ikpe mgrant cocoa farmers of south-western Cameroon. Journal of the Internatonal Afrcan Insttute, 54(1): Emn C, Cockburn J, Decaluwe B The Poverty Impacts of the Doha Round n Cameroon: The Role of Tax Polcy. World Bank Polcy Research Workng Paper N Emn C, World Bank Note technque sur la matrce de comptablté socale du Cameroun de Mmeo. Hazell PB, Norton RD Mathematcal Programmng for Economc Analyss n Agrculture. New York: Macmllan Publshng Company. Jaza Folefack AJ 2005.The Use of Compost from Household Waste n Agrculture: Economc and Envronmental Analyss n Cameroon. PhD Dssertaton, Publshed. In: W Doppler, S Bauer (Eds.): Farmng and Rural Systems Economcs 73: Wekershem, Germany : Margraf Publshers. Mnstry of Agrculture Stratége de Développement du Secteur Rural (SDSR): Synthèse du volet agrculture et développement rural. Mnstère de l Agrculture et du Développement Rural (MINAD- ER), Yaoundé, Cameroun. Mnstry of Plan and Terrtoral Admnstraton Etudes soco-économques régonales au Cameroun: Provnces du Nord, Extrême-Nord, Adamaoua, Centre, Sud, Est, Ouest, Nord-Ouest, Sud-Ouest et Lttoral. Projet PNUD-OPS CMR/98/005/01/2014. Yaoundé, Cameroon, P Mnstry of Plan and Terrtoral Admnstraton Results from the 2005 Census of the Populaton of Cameroon by Regons. Yaoundé, Cameroon: Mnstry of Plan and Terrtoral Admnstraton, Nanhou YV Impact de la mgraton sur les rapports de genre, l agrculture et les nveaux de répartton des revenus au Sud du Mal (Régon de Skasso). Québec, Canada : Mémore de Maîtrse, Unversté de Laval. Nchare A Effets de la lbéralsaton économque et de la dévaluaton du Franc CFA sur l offre du café arabca et des cultures concurrentes au Cameroun. Thèse de Doctorat. Unversté Catholque de Louvan-La-Neuve, Département d Econome Rurale, Louvan-La-Neuve, Belgque. Njnkeu D, Bamou E Trade and Exchange Rate Polcy Optons for the CFA Countres: Smulatons wth a CGE Model for Cameroon. Research Paper N 096, Afrcan Economc Research Consortum (AERC), Naïrob, Kenya.

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