Corn & Soybeans in Manitoba: Past and Present

Transcription

1 Corn & Soybeans in Manitoba: Past and Present Manitoba Agronomists Conference December 11, 2013 University of Manitoba Pam de Rocquigny Provincial Cereal Crops Specialist Manitoba Agriculture, Food & Rural Development Crops Knowledge Centre, Carman

2 Outline Manitoba Crop Composition Changes History of Grain Corn & Soybeans in Manitoba Limits to continued expansion of corn & soybeans in Manitoba Summary & Questions

3 Manitoba Crop Composition Crop/Year All Wheat 37% 49% 52% 36% 37% Oats 18% 6% 6% 10% 4% Barley 27% 19% 12% 11% 5% Grain Corn 0% 2% 1% 2% 5% Canola 5% 10% 19% 26% 34% Soybeans 2% 11% Flax 8% 8% 6% 4% 1% Sunflowers 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% Edible Beans 0% 2% 1% Field Peas 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% Source: Statistics Canada

4 Corn Production History 400,000 BT RR 98 bu/ac , bu/ac , bu/ac , , , , , Acres Yield (bu/acre)

5 Audience Question According to MASC, what is the most common cause of loss that has impacted grain corn yields that resulted in payment on post harvest claims from 2003 to 2012? A. Frost (Frozen) B. Excess Moisture (Drowning) C. Drought D. Hail E. Other (includes Ear Rot, Insects, Disease, Wildlife, etc)

6 Cause of Losses in Grain Corn ( ) Hail 5% Heat 4% Adverse Weather 3% Wind 1% Frost (Frozen) 5% Other 17% Excess Moisture (Drowning) 42% Drought 23% Source: MASC

7 60% Causes of Loss in Grain Corn by Decade 50% 40% 30% 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's 20% 10% 0% Excess Moisture Drought Hail Frost Wind Heat Insects Weeds Other Source: MASC

8 Grain Corn Expansion 1998 RM # Acres Dufferin 18,999 Rhineland 10,891 Stanley 10,570 North Norfolk 6,962 Thompson 5,541 Roland 5,173 Grey 4,603 Montcalm 2,510 South Norfolk 1,533 Hanover 968 La Broquiere 765 Portage La Prairie 694 Traditional 87% Non Traditional 13% Total Corn Acres 75,283 # of RM's 33 # Farms RM # Acres Rhineland 31,187 Dufferin 28,638 Stanley 19,804 Hanover 18,264 Montcalm 14,034 Thompson 13,479 Roland 12,322 Grey 11,273 North Norfolk 10,516 Desalaberry 8,334 Portage la Prairie 7,803 McDonald 7,717 Traditional 55% Non Traditional 45% Total Corn Acres 256,583 # of RM's 73 # Farms 782 Source: MASC

9 Soybean Production History 1,200,000 RR RR2 40 1,000, , , , , Acres Yield (bu/acre) Source: MASC

10 Soybean Expansion 2003 RM # Acres Morris 21,618 Macdonald 17,437 Franklin 11,089 Grey 10,932 Roland 10,876 Desalaberry 10,397 Dufferin 9,970 Tache 9,227 Portage la Prairie 9,039 Richot 8,610 Rosser 7,323 Rhineland 6,690 Montcalm 6,587 Brokenhead 5,210 Traditional 53% Non Traditional 47% Total Soybean Acres 215,143 # of RM's 68 # Farms 1, RM # Acres Morris 70,363 Macdonald 64,862 Dufferin 42,432 Rhineland 40,810 Franklin 37,845 Grey 37,326 Brokenhead 29,555 Roland 27,801 Springfield 27,223 Desalaberry 27,217 Rockwood 25,995 Lac Du Bonnet 25,958 Traditional 55% Non Traditional 45% Total Soybean Acres 831,902 # of RM's 114 # Farms 2,149

11 Audience Question According to MASC, what is the most common cause of loss that has impacted soybean yields that resulted in payment on post harvest claims from 2003 to 2012? A. Frost (Frozen) B. Excess Moisture (Drowning) C. Drought D. Hail E. Other (includes Ear Rot, Insects, Disease, Wildlife, etc)

12 Cause of Losses in Soybeans ( ) Adverse Weather 4% Heat 5% Hail 2% Wind 1% Other 4% Frost (Frozen) 7% Drought 24% Excess Moisture (Drowning) 53% Source: MASC

13 Limits to Continued Expansion A. Access to Early Genetics B. Growing Season Heat C. Growing Season Water D. Production Systems E. Cost of Production

14 A. Access to Early Genetics

15 B. Growing Season Heat 8 to 10 million acres Source: Private Investment in Early Maturing Corn & Soybeans, Mr. M. Nailor, Monsanto Canada. Canada Grains Council Meeting, November 2013 Ottawa, ON.

16 C. Growing Season Water 13 to 18 9 to 13

17 C. Growing Season Water -1.6 to -6 0 to -1.2

18 D. Production Systems Herbicide Resistance RR corn, RR soybeans, RR canola Agronomy issues Seeding rates & dates, zero till, residue management Rotation considerations Disease root rots, FHB RR volunteer weed management

19 E. Cost of Production Corn is more attractive at $7.00/bushel than $4.00/bushel, especially when you have to subtract $0.40 per bushel for drying costs. Source: Western Producer

20 Audience Question What do you consider the main limitation to GRAIN CORN expansion in Manitoba? A. Access to Early Genetics B. Growing Season Heat C. Growing Season Water D. Production Systems E. Cost of Production

21 Audience Question What do you consider the main limitation to SOYBEAN expansion in Manitoba? A. Access to Early Genetics B. Growing Season Heat C. Growing Season Water D. Production Systems E. Cost of Production

22 Summary Corn has a long & storied history in Manitoba. Soybeans relatively new to Manitoba. Expansion has been due to a number of factors. However, limits to continued expansion are present. What crops will corn & soybeans displace? Will grain corn and soybean consistently compete economically with cool season adapted crops??

23 Acknowledgements John Heard, MAFRD Dennis Lange, MAFRD Doug Wilcox, MASC Elroy Cober & Malcolm Morrison, AAFC ECORC

24 THANK YOU! QUESTIONS? Pam de Rocquigny Provincial Cereal Crops Specialist Manitoba Agriculture, Food & Rural Development