Abdul-Karim Sadik. Sixth Zayed Seminar 8-9 May 2013

Transcription

1 Agriculture, Wt Water and Food Security in GCC Countries Abdul-Karim Sadik Sixth Zayed Seminar 8-9 May 2013 Arabian Gulf lfuniversity, it Manama

2 INTRODUCTION GCC Countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates) are situated in an arid region of the World. Natural oil resources in the region helped GCC Countries to achieve economic and social progress, and attain relatively high standards of living. Limited cropland and scarce natural water resources constrained agricultural production and kept GCC countries heavily dependent on food imports. Past GCC Food Self-Sufficiency Policies encouraged expanding the cultivated area and boosting yields, particularly so for certain staple crops such as wheat. Past notable achievements, albeit, at rising i agricultural l footprint t and declining biocapacity of cropland and water resources to regenerate their services and absorb waste. Advent of global food crisis heightened concern over food Advent of global food crisis heightened concern over food security, especially in food deficit countries.

3 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Due to limited agricultural biocapacity (cropland and water resources), the cultivated area in GCC countries in 2010 did not exceed 1.8 percent of total land area. Contribution of agriculture to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaged about 1.4 percent, ranging between 0.07 percent in Qatar and 2.5 percent in Saudi Arabia. The cultivated area with an average share of over 94 percent for Saudi Arabia increased from about 1.48 million HA in 1970 to about 4.14 million HA in Area under cereal cultivation increased from thousand HA in 1970 to thousand HA in 1990, constituting about 27 percent of total t cultivated t area (Figure 1).

4 Figure 1 GCC: Area Under Cultivation 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Total Arable Land & Permanent Crops Cereal Area Harvested

5 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Both expansion of area under cereal cultivation and boosting yields, increased cereal production from about 437,000 tons in 1970 to over 4 million tons in Boosting cereal yield played a major role in cereal production. Average yield in the region of 4,236 kg/ha in 1990 was the highest compared to the world average or that of other regions (Figure 2).

6 00 Figure 2 Cereal Yield Average (KG/ha) World Asia Africa Arab Region GCC

7 FOOD SELF SUFFICIENCY GCC countries had an average self-sufficiency ratio in major food commodities of about 31 percent in 2006, ranging between 9.8 percent for Qatar and 36.5 percent for Saudi Arabia. In 2010, the same ratio was almost maintained in all countries, but improved in Oman, and the region's average remained around 32% percent (Table 1).

8 Table 1 Self Sufficiency Sufficiency in Major Food Commodities (Ratio of domestic production to available quantity for consumption in tons) Country/Region hrain wait an tar udi Arabia ited Arab Emirates C average ab region

9 Self Sufficiency in Major Food Commodities GCC food self-sufficiency ratio in cereal crops which GCC countries (except Bahrain) encouraged production, particularly Saudi Arabia's focus on wheat production, dropped significantly from 18.25% in 2006 to 9% in While Saudi Arabia had a self-sufficiency sufficiency ratio of 23.4 and 97.6 percent in total cereals and in wheat, respectively in 2006, the same ratios dropped to 11.5 and 44.4 percent, respectively, in 2010 (Table 2).

10 rce: AOAD, Agricultural Statistics Yearbooks. Table 2 Self Sufficiency Sufficiency Ratios in Total Cereals and in Wheat Country/Region Total Cereals Wheat Total Cereals Wheat hrain wait man atar udi Arabia ited Arab Emirates C Average ab Region

11 Self Sufficiency Sufficiency Ratios in Total Cereals and in Wheat The drastic drop in cereal self-sufficiency ffi i ratio in 2010 to only half its level in 2006 is the result of: a sharp decline in domestic production from about 3.1 million tons in 2006 to about 1.63 million tons in 2010, and an increase in cereal imports to meet the demand of the region's population which increased by 22.5 percent in a span of 4 years. Deep decline in cereal production, especially wheat in Saudi Arabia followed the country's decision in 2008 to phase out wheat production by 2016.

12 AGRICULTURAL SUSTAINABILITY Land and water are essential for producing food crops, but more so is their productivity and sustainability which require that consumption of available resources be less than what nature can supply. opland Cropland footprint and biocapacity measured in a common unit of global hectares (gha) are shown in Table 3.

13 ce: Sadik, A. Chapter I in 2012 Report of Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED). Table 3 Cropland Ecological Footprint (EF) and Cropland Biocapacity (BC), (Gha/Capita) Country/Region EF BC EF BC hrain wait an tar udi Arabia ited Arab Emirates C b Countries rld Average

14 Cropland Ecological Footprint (EF) and Cropland Biocapacity (BC), (Gha/Capita) Table 3 shows the cropland biocapacity it (BC) and human demand d on this capacity (EF) expressed in biologically productive land with world average productivity expressed in a common unit of global hectares (gha). It is apparent in Table 3 that the deficit in cropland biocapacity in GCC increased sharply from 0.34 gha per capita in 1961 to 0.70 gha in 2008, compared to a similar deficit of 0.26 gha in Arab countries, and 0.02 gha in the world in Despite an increase in GCC population between 1961 and 2008 by nearly 700 percent, cropland (BC) decreased by only about 30 percent, signifying the expansion of cropland and boosting yields, made possible by extensive use of non-renewable water resources

15 ater Resources GCC countries are the most water scarce nations in the world, with per capita average of 95 m 3 compared with an average of about 840 m 3 in the Arab region (Table 4) and about 7,000 m 3 in the world (Figure 3). 4: Renewable Water Resources and Per Capita Share Natural Average Share (M 3 /Capita) Water ntry/region Resources (Million M 3 ) ain ait n 1, r i Arabia 2, ed Arab Emirates ,

16 Renewable Water Resources and Per Capita Share Water availability at the global, regional, and national levels is critical for meeting food demand in the face of growing population and declining trend in per capita share (Figure 3).

17 Figure 3 Natural Water Resources (M 3 /Person/Year) World Asia Africa Arab Region GCC

18 Renewable Water Resources and Per Capita Share Dwindling global water resources and inextricable link between water and food would not only constrain food supply, but could also limit the effectiveness of the 'virtual water' concept as an alternative for food security in such water stressed countries, as those of GCC. Addressing food security under conditions of increasing water scarcity requires an approach to management and uses of water resources, conducive to sustainability of available resources and their contribution to domestic food production.

19 Use of Water Resources Agriculture in GCC countries consumes 85 percent of total withdrawals from natural water resources, and domestic and industrial demand is met mostly from seawater desalination. Irrigation places extreme pressure on water resources. It consumes a high percentage of freshwater withdrawals indicating heavy reliance on fossil groundwater, and rapid depletion of both renewable and non-renewable water resources. Stress on groundwater resources constrains prospects for increasing irrigated area, let alone meeting demand for irrigation in current areas. Water withdrawals reveal high stress on freshwater resources averaging 740 percent for all uses (Table 5).

20 rce: Sadik, A. Chapter 1 in 2012 Report of Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED). Table 5 WithdrawalasPercentage as of AnnualFreshwater Resources (2009) Country All Uses (Percent) Agricultural Use (Percent) hrain wait 4, ,500.0 an tar udi Arabia ited Arab Emirates 2, , C ab Region

21 Use of Water Resources Stress on groundwater resources in Saudi Arabia in past years has led to the reduction of the area under cereal cultivation from about 974,551 ha in 1990 to about 317,307 ha in 2010, and prompted the country to adopt a decree in 2008 to gradually phase out all water-intensive i agricultural l crops by Cost of groundwater depletion could be very high. Over-extraction may increase GDP in the short-term, term, but it undermines a country's long-term natural capital which is essential for sustainable development and well-being.

22 FOOD SECURITY OPTIONS Pressure exerted by food self-sufficiency policies on limited land and extremely scarce water resources, prompted a shift towards the broader concept of food security in GCC countries. A broader food security concept considers both domestic and external sources with due consideration to the related political, economic, social, and environmental aspects. Question to be addressed is what are the available options, and how can they best be utilized?

23 FOOD SECURITY OPTIONS Domestic Sources stainable farming The paradigm for boosting yields through irrigation, excessive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides is no longer tenable, and needs to be replaced with a new approach conducive to agricultural sustainability. Such agricultural practices for optimizing use of fertilizers and pesticides, and the adoption of conservation and organic farming need to be promoted and encouraged.

24 FOOD SECURITY OPTIONS Domestic Sources ving Water Enhancing domestic food production through better management and utilization of available agricultural resources. Irrigation efficiency in GCC countries is low and generally does not exceed 40 percent. Raising it to 75 percent could save about 9,000 million m 3 or about 35% of irrigation uses. Arriving at such savings requires not only expansion in modern irrigation methods, but more so educated farmers, well experienced in best farming and irrigation practices. Appropriate polices, incentives, targeted subsidies and water pricing mechanisms are essential for conserving and saving water.

25 FOOD SECURITY OPTIONS Domestic Sources gmenting Water Resources Wastewater reuse is not fully exploited in GCC countries. Less than 50 percent of treated wastewater is directly used. Upgrading quality of wastewater for irrigation. Kuwait's Sulaibiya high quality reclaimed water plant with a planned capacity of 600,000 m 3 /day would produce over 40 percent of water withdrawals for irrigation.

26 FOOD SECURITY OPTIONS Regional Food Sources GCC countries, together with other Arab countries are pursuing food self-sufficiency at the regional level, through initiatives such as the Emergency Programme for Arab Food Security. But the Arab region also has limited cropland and scarce water resources. Nevertheless, varying comparative advantages in agricultural resources provide greater potential for enhancing food self-sufficiency at the regional level.

27 FOOD SECURITY OPTIONS Regional Food Sources Prospects for increasing food production in the Arab region are conditional on utilizing the available biocapacity (cropland and water resources) productively and efficiently, while maintaining agricultural sustainability. Crop productivity is very low. Productivity of cereals is at less than half the world average (Figure 2). With the exception of Egypt cereal productivity in other major cereal producers (Algeria, Iraq, Morocco, Sudan, and Syria) is very low at an average of 1,124 kg/ha, in 2010 (based on FAOSTAT).

28 FOOD SECURITY OPTIONS Regional Food Sources Boosting cereal yield in these five countries to match the world average (3,568 kg/ha) could increase cereal production by 50 million tons. Raising irrigation efficiency from its low level of about 40 percent to an attainable level of 75 percent could save enough water in six major cereal producers (Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, Sudan and Syria) to produce an additional 40 million tons of cereal. Cereal productivity coupled with irrigation efficiency could raise cereal production in the six Arab countries to about 135 million tons, sufficient to meet 90 percent of the Arab region's demand for cereal in 2030.

29 FOOD SECURITY OPTIONS Regional Food Sources Additionally, suitably treated t wastewater t for agriculture could bring the Arab region closer to self-sufficiency, for example in cereals. Cutting down food post-harvest losses is an important aspect of food supply. It requires integrated food supply chain facilities, including processing, transport, storage and marketing. Increasing crop productivity, raising irrigation efficiency, and cutting down post-harvest losses also reduce input and energy food costs.

30 FOOD SECURITY OPTIONS Outsourcing Agriculture Cooperation between GCC countries and other developing countries with abundant land and water resources, based on mutual benefits, in the context of south-south cooperation, is an option for enhancing food security. Such cooperation requires policies and practices to ensure agricultural sustainability, and stability of supplies at competitive prices with other sources.

31 FOOD SECURITY OPTIONS Virtual Water Virtual water is an appealing concept for food-deficit d fi it countries, especially for water-intensive food commodities, but remains subject to vulnerability of global market conditions, in both supply and prices. Food price index increased by 58 percent and cereals by 76 percent between 2005 and 2010 (Figure 4).

32 Figure 4 FAO Food Price Index ( = 100) Cereals Food (March) Food Cereals

33 FOOD SECURITY OPTIONS GCC food and cereal import prices increased by 90 percent and 72 percent, respectively over the same period (Table 6). Table 6 GCC Food Imports ) Annual Price Average Price Percentage Percentage ($/Ton) Increase Increase (2005- Quantity Price 2010) tal Food reals nual Population growth (4.8%) cess demand for imports er population growth: tal Food 2.0 reals 3.6

34 FOOD SECURITY OPTIONS Based on medium variant population growth (Figure 5), and similar trends in total food and cereal imports would raise import costs at 2010 average prices as indicated in Figure 6. Figure 5 Figure 6 Projected GCC Population Projected Cost of GCC Countries Food Imports 100,000 90,000 Million $ 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30, ,000 10,000 Food Cereals High Variant Medium Variant Food Cereals

35 FOOD SECURITY OPTIONS Wide variations exist between GCC countries in the cost of food imports. Average cereal import prices ranged between $342 per ton for Saudi Arabia and $636 per ton for Bahrain in 2010 (Figure 7). Figure 7 Average Cereal Import Prices (2010) Bahrain d Arab Emirates Kuwait Qatar Oman Saudi Arabia GCC

36 FOOD SECURITY OPTIONS Likewise, import prices for wheat per ton ranged between $255 for Saudi Arabia and $441 for Kuwait, and rice between $ 776 for Qatar and $ 1,386 for Kuwait (Figure 8).

37 Figure 8 Average Wheat and Rice Import Prices (2010) Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Wheat Rice United Arab Emirates GCC

38 FOOD SECURITY OPTIONS Further analysis is needed to identify underlying factors for large variations in import costs, and Consider establishment of a coordination mechanism for GCC sources of cereal imports to reduce costs.

39 Research and Development Agricultural Research and Development (R&D) is key to boosting crop productivity. i A 2009 report by the World Bank, FAO and IFAD on Improving Food Security in Arab countries indicates that funding in National Agricultural Research Institutions in the Arab countries is low at an average of 0.5 percent of Agricultural GDP. Report shows that in an agricultural based country Sudan, funding as percentage of AgGDP is very low at 0.1 percent, compared with 1.0 percent in Argentina, 1.4 percent in Brazil, and 1.6 percent in Mexico.

40 Research and Development An agricultural research project for enhancing food security in Arab countries carried out by International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) is supported by funding from: Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development Islamic Development Bank OPEC Fund for International ti Development Its first phase reveals very encouraging results in boosting wheat yields in Egypt, Morocco, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen.

41 Research and Development Yield at Demonstration fields versus Farmers' fields show considerable increase in both Irrigated and Rainfed Wheat Systems. Average increase during season ranged between 11 percent in Morocco and 58 percent in Sudan in Irrigated Systems, and between 20 percent in Rainfed Systems in Syria and 30 percent in Tunisia. In addition to yield increases modern irrigation techniques led to water saving of 25 percent per kg of wheat for sprinkler irrigation and 45 percent for drip irrigation in Gezira, Sudan, compared with surface irrigation. Expansion in agricultural l R&D and dissemination i of results for application at large scale is of critical importance for enhancing food production in the Arab region, and for mitigating climate change impact.

42 Managing food import price risks Increase in storage capacity at national and regional level. Consideration and evaluation of the feasibility of procurement of food supplies through use of financial instruments such as futures contracts and options.

43 Approach to Food Security Inextractible links between agriculture, water, and food call for consideration of a broad range of issues. Implementation of food security options available internally or externally is complicated by the multi-dimensional (economic, social, environmental, and political) aspects. No one-size-fits-all approach, but some common elements include: Ensuring environmentally sustainable agriculture and efficient use of national land and water resources as well as those acquired in other countries.

44 Approach to Food Security Prioritizing options according to economic and social benefits and minimization of supply risks. Adoption of agricultural policies, methods, and practices conducive to reducing footprint on land and water resources, especially non-renewable groundwater. Ensuing public and private sector food products are quality and price-wise competitive. Providing all food-chain investments and facilities necessary to preserve quantity and quality of food products and their accessibility to consumers. Promoting Research and Development to develop high-yielding crop varieties, farming methods, techniques and technologies to

45 Conclusion Agriculture in the GCC region is limited by the scarce natural endowment of cropland and water. Use of the available resources according to biocapacity to regenerate services and absorb waste is critical for sustainability to contribute to domestic food production in the long-term. GCC countries need to evaluate food security options available with due consideration to their economic, social, environmental, and political l aspects. Effective utilization of available food options can reduce risk exposure to world market supplies and prices.

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