# Growth and export dimensions of Indian turmeric

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2 VINOD R. NAIK AND S.B. HOSAMANI The analytical tools employed in the present study are elaborated as under : Compound growth model: The annual compound growth rates for area, production, productivity and export of turmeric were computed separately for the two sub-periods and compared by using the compound growth rate (CGR) in the form of equation (1): ln y t = t + t + u t (1) where, y t = Value at time t. t = Time element which takes the value 1, 2..n for various years. t = Intercept t = Regression co-efficient Annual compound growth rate (r) = [(Antilog t )] 1 (100) (2) Instability analysis: The co-efficient of variation was used as a measure to study the variability in production and export of turmeric from India. The co-efficient of variation or index of instability was computed by using the following formula: Standard deviation ( ) Instability index x 100 x ( Mean (X) 1 R 2 ) (3) Direction of trade: Annual export data for the period to and to were used to analyze the direction of trade and changing pattern of exports of turmeric during pre-wto and post-wto periods, respectively. The major turmeric importing countries namely, USA, UK, Iran, Japan and UAE were considered while rests of the countries in the world were considered as other countries. The trade directions of commodities exports were analyzed using the first order Markov chain approach. Central to Markov chain analysis is the estimation of the transitional probability matrix P. The elements P ij of the matrix P indicates the probability that export will switch from country i to country j with the passage of time. The diagonal elements of the matrix measure the probability that the export share of a country will be retained. Hence, an examination of the diagonal elements indicates the loyalty of an importing country to a particular country s exports. In the context of the current application, structural changes were treated as a random process with selected importing countries. The average exports to a particular country was considered to be a random variable which depends only on the past exports to that country, which can be denoted algebraically as : n E [Ei ]P e... (4) jt i 1 t 1 ij jt where, E jt = Exports from India to j th country during the year t. E it-1 = Exports to i th country during the period t-1. P ij = Probability that the exports will shift from i th country to j th country. e jt = The error term which is statistically independent of E it-1. t = Number of years considered for the analysis r = Number of importing countries The transitional probabilities P ij which can be arranged in a (c * r) matrix have the following properties. n Ij 1 t 1 P... (5) and 0 < P I j < 1 Thus, the expected export shares of each country during period t were obtained by multiplying the export to these countries in the previous period (t-1) with the transitional probability matrix. To estimate the transitional probabilities of the Markov Chain Model, Minimum Absolute Deviations (MAD) estimation procedure was employed, which minimizes the sum of absolute deviations. The conventional Linear Programming Technique was used, as this satisfies the properties of transitional probabilities of non-negativity restrictions and row sum constraints in estimation. The Linear Programming formulation is stated as Min OP* + Ie (6) Subject to, XP* + V = Y z GP* = 1 P* > 0 where, 0 - is the vector of zeroes. P* - is the vector in which probability P ij are arranged. I - is an apparently dimensioned vector of area. E - is a vector of absolute error (1 U 1). Y - is the vector of export to each country. X - is the block diagonal matrix of lagged values of Y V - is the vector of errors G - is the grouping matrix to add the row elements of P arranged in P* to unity. Using the estimated transitional probabilities, the exports of turmeric to various destinations were predicted by multiplying the same with the respective shares of base year. The values in the transitional probabilities matrix will have different interpretations. The value of diagonal elements indicates the probability of retention of the previous year values, while values in columns reveals probability of gain of a 92 Internat. Res. J. agric. Eco.& Stat. 4 (1) March, 2013 : 91-97

3 GROWTH & EXPORT DIMENSIONS OF INDIAN TURMERIC particular country from other countries, values in rows reveals probability that a country might lose to their countries in respect of a specific commodity exports. RESULTS AND DATA ANALYSIS The results are summarized below according to objectives of the study: Growth and instability analysis of area, production and productivity of Indian turmeric: The growth rate and instability index of area, production and productivity of turmeric are presented in Table 1. Perusal of table revealed that in all the periods, the growth rates of production were higher than of productivity and area indicating the productivity-led growth. During pre-wto period the growth rates in area, production and productivity of turmeric were 3.45 per cent, 8.09 per cent and per cent, respectively with an average value of ha area, tonnes of production and 2688 kg/ha productivity. Whereas, in the post- WTO period the growth rates of area, production and productivity of turmeric were 1.89 per cent, 3.67 per cent and 1.75 per cent, respectively with an average value of ha area, tonnes of production and 4102 kg/ha productivity. In the overall period ( to ) the growth rates in area, production and productivity of turmeric were 2.67 per cent, 5.63 per cent and 2.89 per cent, respectively with an average value of ha area, tonnes of production and 3278 kg/ha productivity. The growths in area, production and productivity were found to be higher during pre-wto period than post-wto and overall period. The lower growth in area and productivity in post-wto period might be due to stability in area under turmeric, i.e. no scope to allocate more area under new planting. Growth recorded in all periods was significant at one per cent level. Favourable weather conditions prevailing in the major turmeric growing areas in the country (Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Orissa, Karnataka and West Bengal) and the important steps taken by the Spices Board, such as providing drying sheets to small and marginal growers of turmeric and other spices for drying under hygienic conditions, providing subsidies for the small and marginal farmers for the construction of concrete drying yards and warehouses, organization of educational programmes for growers on improved technologies, have led to increased productivity of turmeric. Besides, release of high-yielding varieties over the years also has made a significant contribution. The instability index was worked out for turmeric area, production and productivity in India for the three periods to analyse the extent of variability (Table 1). It was observed from the table that, the instability index for area during post-wto period (7.45%) was lower compared to pre-wto period (7.92%) and overall period (8.34%). Instability index for production of turmeric was also lower in post-wto period (10.09%) than both pre-wto period (18.64%) and overall period (16.64%). Similarly, the instability index for yield of turmeric in post-wto period (9.69%) was lower than both pre-wto period (12.44%) and overall period (12.68 %). Angels et al. (2011) had observed that these fluctuations in yield of turmeric were mainly influenced by the rainfall and other climatic factors. The release of new varieties and innovative cultural practices developed in recent years were also responsible for the variations in productivity, which affected the levels of production in different years. The market price has also played an important role in annual production. As in any other agricultural commodities, production in one year is strongly influenced by the price that prevailed in previous year. The results are in line with the study conducted by Krishndas (2010). Growth rate and instability analysis of turmeric export from India: The growth rate and instability index of turmeric export in both quantity and value are presented in Table 2. The results revealed that the growth rate during pre-wto period, the export of turmeric in terms of quantity was increased at 3.49 per cent per annum with an average quantity of about tonnes, while value wise it was increased at the rate of per cent per annum with an average value of about Rs lakh. Whereas, during post-wto period, quantity wise export of turmeric was increasing at the rate of 5.07 per cent per annum with an average quantity of about tonnes and value wise the growth rate of turmeric was increasing at the rate of per cent per annum with an average value of about Rs lakh. In the overall period, the growth rate of export quantity of turmeric increased at the rate of 5.26 per cent per Table 1 : Compound growth rates and instability in area, production and productivity of Indian turmeric Compound growth rate (per cent) Instability index (per cent) Period Area Production Yield Area Production Yield Pre-WTO period ( to ) 3.45* (104971) 8.09* (299486) 4.48* (2688) Post-WTO period ( to ) 1.89* (161720) 3.67* (665900) 1.75** (4102) Overall ( to ) 2.67* (128617) 5.63* (452158) 2.89* (3278) Note: * and ** indicate significance of values at P=0.01 and 0.05, respectively Figures in the parentheses indicate the averages of respective years Area in hectares, Production in tonnes and yield in kg/ha Internat. Res. J. agric. Eco. & Stat. 4(1) March, 2012 :

5 GROWTH & EXPORT DIMENSIONS OF INDIAN TURMERIC Table 3 : Transitional probability matrix of Indian turmeric export in pre-wto period Countries USA UK Iran Japan UAE Others USA UK Iran Japan UAE Others Table 4 : Transitional probability matrix of Indian turmeric export in post-wto period: to Countries USA UK Iran Japan UAE Others USA UK Iran Japan UAE Others share of around per cent over the period. It lost its major share of per cent to UAE and 9.15 per cent to Iran. Iran is another stable importer of Indian turmeric because it retained its original share of per cent. It lost its major share to other countries to the extent of per cent followed by Japan (13.38%), USA (3.32%) and UK (1.00%). Hence, in the future Iran will be one of the most stable importers and its growth may be higher in turmeric import from India. Japan is less stable importer of Indian turmeric as it retained its original share of only per cent and it lost a major share of per cent of its original share to USA, followed by UAE (29.61 %). It gained per cent from USA, followed by Iran (13.38%) and other countries (3.67%). Hence, Japan may not be regarded as a stable importer of Indian turmeric in future. The UAE has retained per cent of its original share and it is the one of the stable importers of Indian turmeric. It lost its major share to other countries category (51.99%) and to some extent to Iran and USA. But it gained high share of per cent from UK, followed by USA (49.04 %), Japan (29.61%) and others (3.54%). Being a major importer of Indian turmeric, if it loses its share, it will create a high instability in the export of turmeric from India in future. The countries pooled under the other category retained per cent of its original share, which implied that even though they import in lower quantities, there was high stability, they have retained most of their original share. It gained per cent of the UAE, per cent of Iran share and 5.15 per cent of USA share. Hence, compared to major importing countries at present, the countries pooled under others category would import more turmeric from India in near future. Between the two periods other countries retained as major markets and UAE remained as third important market in between the periods. The countries USA and Japan are emerging as important new market avenues in post-wto period. The Iran country is also in a position to import a large quantity of turmeric. On the contrary, UK is relegated to lower place in the post-wto period in terms of share of retention of turmeric trade. Thus, it was clear that the countries pooled under others category, UAE, UK and Iran would be the stable importers of the Indian turmeric in future and countries like USA and Japan were least stable importers. Hence, the plans for export should be oriented towards these countries and also plans should be formulated for stabilizing the export to other countries. The results of the study are in line with study conducted by Angels et al. (2011) Projections of Indian turmeric export to major importing countries: The projection of the Indian turmeric export to different countries was computed using the transitional probability matrix and the results of actual and projected exports of Indian turmeric have been presented in Table 5. The market share projections of turmeric exports to different countries have been computed up to Even though the total quantity increased, the percentage share of actual and estimated export of turmeric to USA declined between and However, the projected value suggests that the percentage of quantity would slightly increase from 5.08 per cent in to 5.63 per cent by In the case of UK, the actual export had increased from to and the estimated value showed that the share of UK was increased for the same period and the projected market share is expected to decrease marginally during to from 5.38 per cent to 5.35 per cent. In the case of Iran, the actual and estimated export had increased from to The projected market share was expected to decrease from 8.38 per cent to 7.26 per cent during Internat. Res. J. agric. Eco. & Stat. 4(1) March, 2012 :

6 VINOD R. NAIK AND S.B. HOSAMANI to In the case of Japan, the actual export value had decreased between and whereas, it showed an increasing trend of projected value from 5.27 per cent to 6.00 per cent during the same period. The actual export share of turmeric to UAE had decreased drastically from per cent in to per cent in However, the estimated value decreased from per cent in to per cent in The projected market share is expected to increase from per cent to per cent during to The actual export share to the countries pooled under others showed an increase during to from to per cent respectively. The projected market share was expected to decline from per cent to per cent from the year to , but the share is expected to increase to less extent from to Keeping in view the foregoing discussions, more stress has to be given on the countries such as UK, Iran, UAE and other countries category for maintaining present status of export and the government has to give more importance to the countries such as USA and Japan to maintain the market share in the future. A high dependence on one or two export markets will increase the trade risk in the longrun. Therefore, more importance has to be given to the minor importing countries such Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, etc. and appropriate export promotion strategies have to be evolved to diversify the geographical concentration. The policies have to be drawn Table 5: Actual and predicted quantity of turmeric export from India to selected countries (Qty in tonnes) Year USA UK Iran Japan UAE Others A P A P A P A P A P A P (5.61) (4.84) (3.02) (6.95) (20.45) (59.15) (6.43) (5.79) (7.25) (12.08) (10.47) (5.82) (5.68) (4.82) (5.38) (4.82) (4.50) 2397 (6.43) 2277 (6.03) 2672 (5.99) 2494 (6.60) 2956 (9.12) 3138 (8.47) 2448 (5.68) 2607 (5.62) 2609 (5.05) 2546 (5.17) 2668 (5.08) (5.21) (5.43) (5.52) (5.59) (5.63) 1676 (4.44) 1837 (4.12) 1842 (4.88) 2006 (6.19) 2060 (5.56) 2576 (5.98) 2772 (5.97) 2893 (5.59) 2461 (5.00) 2927 (5.58) 3340 (6.58) 1906 (5.11) 1876 (4.97) 2359 (5.29) 1996 (5.28) 1801 (5.56) 1976 (5.33) 2540 (5.89) 2596 (5.59) 2596 (5.02) 2748 (5.58) 2823 (5.38) 2751 (5.42) 2690 (5.30) 2715 (5.35) 2716 (5.35) 2714 (5.35) Internat. Res. J. agric. Eco.& Stat. 4 (1) March, 2013 : (5.50) 2971 (6.66) 2724 (7.21) 949 (2.93) 488 (1.32) 800 (1.86) 1447 (3.12) 6095 (11.79) 3709 (7.53) 5335 (10.16) 4255 (8.38) 2051 (5.50) 2366 (6.26) 3187 (7.14) 2687 (7.11) 1699 (5.24) 1713 (4.62) 2467 (5.73) 2727 (5.88) 4442 (8.59) 3781 (7.68) 4400 (8.38) 3873 (7.63) 3732 (7.35) 3708 (7.31) 3693 (7.28) 3683 (7.26) 1878 (4.97) 3027 (6.78) 2559 (6.78) 2614 (8.07) 2694 (7.27) 2686 (6.23) 2608 (5.62) 2632 (5.09) 2797 (5.68) 3090 (5.89) 3149 (6.20) 1966 (5.27) 2191 (5.80) 2703 (6.06) 2443 (6.47) 2355 (7.27) 2402 (6.48) 2422 (5.62) 2571 (5.54) 3190 (6.17) 3048 (6.19) 3256 (6.20) 2932 (5.78) 2997 (5.90) 3032 (5.97) 3041 (5.99) 3046 (6.00) 8162 (21.61) 6044 (13.54) 5272 (13.95) 4724 (14.58) 7239 (19.54) 5215 (12.10) 7361 (15.86) 8133 (15.73) 5151 (10.46) 5911 (11.26) 6719 (13.24) Note : A-Actual exports in tonnes. P- Predicted exports in tonnes. Figures in parentheses indicate export share in per cent 5636 (15.11) 5225 (13.83) 6225 (13.95) 5506 (14.58) 5501 (16.98) 6070 (16.39) 6481 (15.04) 6885 (14.84) 7045 (13.62) 6705 (13.61) 7284 (13.87) 7539 (14.85) 7185 (14.16) 7184 (14.16) 7225 (14.24) 7238 (14.26) (57.06) (63.11) (59.93) (56.16) (55.83) (68.02) (63.75) (56.98) (65.96) (62.30) (61.09) (62.58) (63.11) (61.58) (59.96) (55.83) (58.70) (62.04) (62.53) (61.55) (61.77) (61.09) (61.11) (61.86) (61.69) (61.55) (61.50)

7 GROWTH & EXPORT DIMENSIONS OF INDIAN TURMERIC based on the problems faced by the importing countries, so that the export of turmeric would increase in future and India may earn more foreign exchange through turmeric export. Authors affiliations: S.B. HOSAMANI, Department of Agriculture Economics, University of Agricultural Sciences, DHARWAD (KARNATAKA) INDIA Krishndas, M. (2010). Production and export performance of major Indian spices - An economic analysis, M.Sc.(Ag.) Thesis, University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad, KARNATAKA (INDIA). Mamatha, B.G. (1995). Export trade of selected spices in India An economic analysis, Master of Science Thesis, University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore, KARNATAKA (INDIA). LITERATURE CITED Angles, S., Sundar, A. and Chinnadurai, M. (2011). Impact of globalization on production and export of turmeric in India An economic analysis. Agric. Econ. Res. Rev., 24(2): * * * * * * * * Internat. Res. J. agric. Eco. & Stat. 4(1) March, 2012 :

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