Climate Screening Report

Transcription

1 Climate Change Adaptation & Disaster Risk Reduction Screening, Management Plan and Subsequent Project Proposals of Danida Supported Agricultural Sector Programme Support, Phase II and Water Supply and Sanitation Sector Programme Support, Phase II Bangladesh Climate Screening Report 26 February 2009

2 Table of Contents Abbreviations ii 1 Introduction Background of the Two Sector Programmes ASPS-II WSSPS-II Methodology for Climate Change Screening Methodology Development Workshops Development of a Conceptual Framework Development of Climate Screening Matrix Training Workshop on Climate Screening Matrix Project Screening Process Screening for Climate Change Risks ASPS II Main Climate Change Hazards Main Impacts from Climate Change Hazards Risk Assessment and Rating Identification of Adaptation Options ASPS II Adaptation Options for AEC Adaptation Options for RFLDC Adaptation Options for RRMAC Summing up on Climate Screening Results and Adaptation Options - ASPS-II Screening for Climate Change Risks WSSPS II Climate Change Hazards and Impacts on hardware installations Climate Change Hazards and Impacts on Software Risk Assessment and Rating Identification of Adaptation Options WSSPS II Sanitation Installation - Hardware Water Supply Installations - Hardware Hygiene Promotion - Software Capacity Building - Software Summary up on Climate Screening Results and Adaptation Options WSSPS-II Main Findings and Way Forward The Screening Process Challenges and Learnings Screening Results and Identified Adaptation Options Development of Sector Climate Change Screening Tool Formulation of Pilot Project Proposals Annexes Annex A Annex B Consolidated Screening Matrices, ASPS-II Consolidated Screening Matrices, WSSPS-II i

3 ABBREVIATIONS AEC ASPS II BDT BMDF CBOs CC CH CHT CZ DKK DLS DOF DPHE FMO FP HB HYSAWA IEC ITN LGED LGIs LGSU LW MLGRDC MOA MOFL NGO-F NGOs NILG PIM PNGO PSU R&D RFLDC RRMAC SDP SO UPs WSP WSSPS II Agricultural Extension Component, ASPS-II Agriculture Sector Programme Support, Phase II Bangladesh Taka Bangladesh Municipal Development Fund Community Based Organisations Climate Change Chittagong Hills Tract/hilly zone Chittagong Hill Tracts HYSAWA Fund Project, WSSPS-II Coastal zone Danish Kroner Department of Livestock Services Department of Fisheries Department of Public Health Engineering HYSAWA Fund, WSSPS-II Flood plain zone Haor basin zone Hygiene, Sanitation and Water Supply Project, WSSPS-II Information, Education, Communication Knowledge Development and Training Networking Project, WSSPS-II Local Government Engineering Department Local Government Institutions Local Government Support Unit, WSSPS-II Low water table zone Ministry of Local Government Rural Development and Cooperatives Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock NGO and Civil Society Networking Project, WSSPS-II Non-Governmental Organisations Local Government Institutions Capacity Building Project, WSSPS-II Project Implementation Manuals Partner NGO Sector Policy Support Component, WSSPS-II Research and development Regional Fisheries and Livestock Development Component, ASPS-II Component Rural Roads and Market Access Component, ASPS-II Sector Development Plan Service Organisation Union Parishads Water Safety Plan Water Supply and Sanitation Programme Support, Phase II ii

4 1 INTRODUCTION The agricultural and water & sanitation sectors are among the most important sectors for overall development within Bangladesh, in particular through their contribution to supporting life and livelihoods within poor communities. At the same time these sectors have been identified as being the most vulnerable to climate changes already observed and expected for the future. With the intention to support further development of methods and tools to address the impacts of climate change within the agricultural and water & sanitation sectors in Bangladesh, Danida decided to launch a climate change screening process of the two Danida-supported programmes within these sectors: i) the Agriculture Sector Programme Support, Phase II (ASPS-II), and ii) the Water Supply and Sanitation Programme Support, Phase II (WSSPS-II). The overall objective of the assignment is to prepare immediate and longer term interventions related to Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction, taking outset in the Danish supported agricultural and water & sanitation sector programme. The immediate objectives of the assignment are to: Propose procedures for Climate Change Screening applicable for the agricultural and water and sanitation sectors and conduct Climate Change Screenings for ASPS-II and WSSPS-II; Prepare Climate Change & Disaster Risk Reduction Management Plans for ASPS-II and WSSPS-II, including short term and long term action plans; Prepare proposals for immediate adaptation options. The objectives are being obtained through a process oriented approach involving close interaction with different stakeholder groups. Under a common framework, two separate teams of international and local consultants are carrying out the climate screening process for the two respective programmes. The implementation of the assignment has been divided into four phases, each phase yielding specific outputs or reports jointly from both teams: Phase 1 (Inception Phase) Inception Report Phase 2 (Climate Screening Phase) Climate Screening Report Phase 3 (Climate Management Planning and Adaptation Phase) Climate Management Plans Phase 4 (Pilot Project Phase) A number of pilot projects The consultancy teams initiated work in August 2008 and the Inception Report was approved in January The Inception Report describes the overall and specific methodology and work plan for the climate change screening of the two programmes. This Climate Change Screening Report is the second output of the assignment. This report contains the screening results of the different projects under ASPS-II and WSSPS-II. A background of ASPS-II and WSSPS-II and the screening methodology is briefly described below (further elaborated in the Inception Report) before narrating the screening results, so that the report may be read as a stand alone document. The Inception Report and other supporting documentation can be downloaded from the webpage Page 1

5 2 BACKGROUND OF THE TWO SECTOR PROGRAMMES 2.1 ASPS-II The Agricultural Sector Programme Support, Phase II (ASPS-II) commenced in 2006 and is expected to be completed in The overall objective of ASPS-II is to Improve living conditions of poor marginal and small farmer households through enhanced, integrated and sustainable agricultural productivity. ASPS-II is composed of three Components: - Component 1: Agricultural Extension Component - Component 2: Regional Fisheries and Livestock Development Component - Component 3: Rural Roads and Market Access Component The overall budget for ASPS-II is BDT 6,100 million (DKK 610 million). Approach and Coverage With its integrated focus on crop production, fisheries & livestock and rural roads & market access, ASPS-II can basically be considered a rural development programme, with a main focus on improving livelihoods for poor farmers. A brief presentation of the specific approach and coverage of each of the three programme components is provided below. Agricultural Extension Component (AEC) The target groups for AEC are groups of small and marginal farmers, and women, cultivating acres of land with a focus on crop-based agricultural development, and with scope for integrating livestock and aquaculture production. Activities are concentrated in the poor districts in the north and northwest. Field activities are building on positive experiences gained during ASPS I with respect to the Farmer Field Schools concept, the development of farmer groups and the use of Farmer Trainers. The overall approach is integrated crop management covering the crops sub-sector, but with operational links established at field level to the livestock and aquaculture/fisheries subsectors. Regional Fisheries and Livestock Development Component (RFLDC) The target groups are small and marginal farmers and the functionally landless, with focus on specific groups such as women-headed households, women poultry rearers, inshore fishers, Labour Contracting Society members, settlers on new char land, and women fish driers. A participatory learning approach of field schools adapted to integrated homestead production activities in aquaculture and livestock is being applied with a variety of technical options. NGOs are being used to assist in capacity building of Union Parishads (UPs) and Community Based Organisations (CBOs), and to facilitate micro-credit. The private sector is being supported to provide inputs and markets, such as in food processing. Market linkages are being promoted in cooperation with the Rural Roads and Market Access Component. Page 2

6 Component Rural Roads and Market Access Component (RRMAC) The target groups are primarily, farmers in aquaculture in relation to market access; as well as ultra poor women, local government staff, the private and public sectors in Southern Districts. The component is being implemented in the same geographic areas in Barisal/Noakhali where the RFLDC is working. Implementers and Immediate Objectives The table below provides an overview of the implementing agencies and immediate objectives for each of the three ASPS-II components. Table 1: ASPS-II Immediate Objectives Component Agricultural Extension Implemented by the Department of Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture (MOA). Regional Fisheries and Livestock Development Implemented by the Department of Fisheries (DOF) and the Department of Livestock Services (DLS), Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock (MOFL). Rural Roads and Market Access Implemented by the Local Government Engineering Department (LGED), Ministry of Local Government Rural Development and Cooperatives (MLGRDC). Immediate Objectives Improved, demand driven, integrated, and decentralised extension systems developed to support poor marginal and small farmer households. Enhanced capacity of associated agricultural agencies of MOA. Improved and sustainable productivity of, and returns from, fisheries and livestock systems of resource poor households. Improved efficiency and sustainability of the rural roads and market infrastructure. Improved efficiency of LGED s maintenance management. Key Indicators The following key indicators have been identified for ASPS-II: At least 700,000 households will have been trained and increased their incomes by a minimum of 30%. Fisheries and livestock yields of poor households will have increased by 10%. At least 2.3 million labour days generated in road works. Page 3

7 Policy Planning and Institutional Strengthening ASPS-II is also providing support to policy coordination and policy development, including support to related research activities. Institutional support is being provided by the components to the line agencies DAE, DOF and DLS. The support comprises human resource development on monitoring and management issues, and links up directly with the field implementation of extension services in the agriculture components nationwide. In addition, institutional support is provided at programme level for the Agricultural Division of the Planning Commission, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock. 2.2 WSSPS-II WSSPS-II commenced in This five-year programme has the overall objective to contribute to poverty reduction through improved standard of public health and an improved, sustainable environment. The immediate objectives of WSSPS-II are shown in the following box. The Immediate Objectives of WSSPS II 1. To improve hygiene behaviour and practices. 2. To promote community-led sanitation activities. 3. To increase the coverage of safe water supply services for the poor. 4. To strengthen the capacity of government, local government institutions and non-government stakeholders at all levels to play the roles required to achieve the above three immediate objectives. 5. To promote greater devolution of administrative and financial authority to local government institutions. The WSSPS-II consists of some components and projects. A component may be only one project or may be a package of a number of similar projects. The components and projects are outlined below, their acronyms are shown within brackets. 1. Sector Policy Support Component (PSU) 2. Water Supply and Sanitation Component WSS Coastal Belt Project (Coastal Belt) HYSAWA Fund Project, having two parts: HYSAWA Fund (FMO); and Local Government Support Unit(LGSU) 3. Capacity Building Component NGO and Civil Society Networking Project (NGO-F) Local Government Institutions Capacity Building Project (NILG) Knowledge Development and Training Networking Project (ITN) 4. Chittagong Hill Tracts HYSAWA Fund Project (CHT) The total cost of the WSSPS-II including the cost of components and project, as well as costs of Danida advisors and unallocated fund is Taka 4,197 million (DKK 419,7 million). The Sector Policy Support Component provides support in policy and strategy formulation and in carrying out related strategic activities in the sector. The Water Supply and Sanitation Component has two projects with activities for physical infrastructure construction (or hardware): the Coastal Page 4

8 Belt project and the HYSAWA project. The Coastal Belt Project is closing in June The HYSAWA Fund project, having two parts, FMO and LGSU, is the main investment project under WSSPS-II. The FMO part finances Local Government Institutions (LGIs) which includes construction of water supply installations and construction of sanitation installations while the LGSU part provides capacity support to the LGIs. Out of the three projects under the Capacity Building Component, the NGO-F project and the NILG project provide capacity support to the LGIs that HYSAWA-FMO finances while the ITN project provides capacity support to the sector as a whole. The Chittagong Hill Tracts HYSAWA Fund Project is intended to provide water and sanitation installations to the Hill Tracts. However, the project had not commenced at the start of this assignment and is thus not included in the Climate Screening. The outputs of the projects under WSSPS-II can also be clustered into two groups: i) hardware and ii) software. Because of these two different types of outputs two different screening techniques are used. These are described in the following section. The outputs of the components and projects contribute to one or more immediate objectives of WSSPS-II. Table 2 shows the different outputs under WSSPS-II. Table 2: Different Outputs of the Projects under WSSPS-II Outputs of the projects (examples of activities) 1. Water supply installations hardware (e.g. different types of hand tubewells, ring wells, pond sand filters, rainwater harvesting, village piped water supply, etc.) 2. Sanitation installations hardware (e.g. different types of household latrines, school latrines, community latrines, etc.) 3. Improved hygiene practice software (e.g. community mobilization, awareness building, hygiene promotion and education, etc.) 4. Capacity building software (e.g. training programmes through Support Organizations and NGOs, Knowledge and skill development of LGIs, development of IEC/BCC materials, research and development, curriculum development, advisory service sector coordination and policy support) Projects dealing with the outputs HYSAWA LGSU, HYSAWA FMO, NGO-F and Coastal Belt project HYSAWA LGSU, HYSAWA FMO, NGO-F and Coastal Belt project HYSAWA LGSU, HYSAWA FMO, NGO-F and Coastal Belt project HYSAWA LGSU, HYSAWA FMO, NGO-F, Coastal Belt, ITN-BUET and NILG project Outputs contributing to the immediate objectives of WSSPS-II Immediate Objective 3: Increased coverage of safe water supply Immediate Objective 2: Promotion of Community led Sanitation Immediate Objective 1: Improved Hygiene behaviour and practices Immediate Objective 4: The capacities of govt., local govt. and non-govt. organizations strengthened Page 5

9 3 METHODOLOGY FOR CLIMATE CHANGE SCREENING In this chapter, the main steps and processes in the development of methodology and tools for the climate change screening are presented. A more detailed outline of the applied methodology and approach, including assumptions and considerations, is provided in the Inception Report. The working definition of climate change screening used has been: Climate change screening is a systematic process of examining activities, outputs and programmes in order to identify their vulnerability to climate change, including assessment of the extent to which vulnerability is being or could be addressed. 3.1 Methodology Development Workshops The design of an overall methodology and approach for undertaking the climate change screening was undertaken through a consultative process with relevant key stakeholders. This included presentation and discussion of a proposed approach and methodology outline at a stakeholder workshop organized in Dhaka on 5 th October The workshop was attended by a large number of key stakeholders involved in the agricultural and water & sanitation sectors, including the GoB, donor agencies, NGO s, research institutes etc. The feed-back from the workshop participants, as well as comments received from other stakeholders during this process, was considered for finalizing of the overall methodological design. 3.2 Development of a Conceptual Framework Based on literature review and discussion with key stakeholders, a conceptual framework was prepared describing the relationship between the causes of climate change and its observed or potential impacts on the two sectors. This framework has been continuously presented and discussed as risk identification diagrams for, respectively, the agricultural sector and the water & sanitation sector (please see Figure 1 and 2 overleaf). The aim of the diagrams is to illustrate how the processes through which observed and predicted changes in weather and environment, which are assumed to be the result of climate changes, will impact on the lives and livelihoods of the target groups of ASPS-II and WSSPS-II. Through this causeeffect analysis, the impacts of the climate changes on the two sectors and on society as a whole have been revealed. Page 6

10 Figure 1: Risk Identification Diagram - Water Supply and Sanitation Sector Page 7

11 Figure 2: Risk Identification Diagram - Agricultural Sector Page 8

12 3.3 Development of Climate Screening Matrix The development of a generic climate change screening tool for both the agriculture sector and water & sanitation sector programmes was one of the main challenges of the assignment. The aim was to develop a screening tool which would be relatively simple and easy to use, and yet at the same time would be able to provide a framework that is fundamentally sound and robust for scaling up. It is also expected that if a common tool for the two sectors can be developed then the same tool, or an adapted version, can be used for other sectors as well. The climate screening tool development process followed a gradual but systematic process including discussion with key stakeholders through group discussions or one-to-one meetings, incorporating their views, piloting and making revisions. The overall approach of the climate screening is one of asking the following very basic - yet crucial - questions: Are programme activities exposed and vulnerable to climate change, i.e. are they at risk? If yes, what are the risks? How serious are they? Are the risks being dealt with today? Are there ways to better deal with the risks? The screening that is the asking and answering of those questions above - would gradually lead into the formulation of adaptation options and suggestions for climate management plans (to be developed during the next Phase 3). Based on the above stated basic questions, a draft Screening Matrix was first prepared by the consultants. It was then tested during a field trip to Noakhali. After some adjustments it was again discussed in small workshops with WSSPS-II and ASPS-II implementing partners and staff. Following their remarks the matrix was fine tuned to produce a final version Climate Screening Matrix. As discussed in Section 2.2, the projects under WSSPS-II are of two types: hardware and software, with the risks to software projects being mostly of an indirect nature. As such, two separate screening matrices were developed for that sector programme - a more detailed hardware matrix and a simpler software version. For ASPS-II, there was no need to apply different screening matrices. Some significant features of the Screening Matrix (hardware) are given below. Level of screening of a project The projects were screened at the component/output level and, if required for climate change context, also at the activity levels. Thus each component/output (or activity) was screened through various parameters shown in the different columns of the matrix. Risk zones The major contexts for climate change risks (flood, cyclone, drought, etc.) are dominant in certain geographical areas of the country. Again different types of agricultural/water & Page 9

13 sanitation services are provided by the two sector programmes in different areas of the country depending on the agro-ecology/hydro-geology and other conditions. Considering the spatial perspective of both the contexts of climate change and the type of services provided, the country and programme areas was divided into six risk zones (Floodplain, Low Water Table Area, Coastal Zone, Haor Basin i.e. tectonically depressed area, Chittagong Hill Tracts/Hilly and Others). A similar kind of context of risks and adaptation measures are expected within a risk zone. Climate change hazard and impact on agricultural/water & sanitation services A list of possible climate change hazards or contexts (e.g. drought, cyclone, saline intrusion, contaminated water sources, etc.) was prepared. The contexts relevant to the output/activity were identified and subsequently their impacts on agricultural/water & sanitation services were determined. The impacts were classified into some broad categories (e.g. degraded/depleted water resources/environment conditions, damages to production systems/physical infrastructure and deteriorated health) for easy representation. Quantifying climate change risk Approaches were taken to quantify risk so that the relative position of the risks of each output/activity could be determined. By quantifying risks it would become possible to rank the outputs/activities and highlight the most vulnerable ones. These outputs/activities are most in need of adaptation options. The risk has been defined as the product of severity and frequency (Risk = Severity x Frequency). Severity refers to the degree of impact on the ASPS-II/WSSPS-II services of the climate change risk event once it occurs. Types of impact factors which were considered included: socio-economic and human losses, degraded/depleted water resources/environmental conditions, and health. (please refer to Risk Identification Diagrammes in Figure 1 and 2). Frequency means the number of occurrences of the climate change event in a particular period. Both severity and frequency were divided into four categories and each category was scored by a number between 1 and 4. Similarly risk, which is the score of severity multiplied by the score of frequency, was calculated and categorized into three levels of risks. Table 3 overleaf shows the categories of severity, frequency and risk and their corresponding scores. Thus the score of highest risk would become 16 (High severity score 4 x More frequent score 4) and the score of 1 would represent the lowest risk. Page 10

14 Table 3: The Categories and Scores of Severity, Frequency and Risk SEVERITY FREQUENCY RISK Category Score Category Score Category Score Range More Frequent High 4 (once or more in every 4 High risk >8 year) Moderately High 3 Frequent (once in every 2-5 years) 3 Moderate risk 3-6 Moderately Low 2 Low to None 1 Moderately Frequent (once in every 5-10 year) Less Frequent (once in every 10 to 20 years) 2 1 No or Low risk 1-2 Adaptation consideration The adaptation options against each context of climate change risks were also assessed. The adaptation options that are being dealt with in the present projects were identified. Furthermore, adaptation options that are currently not undertaken, but possible within the scope of the present projects, and finally adaptation options that are possible, but need to be addressed by interventions other than the present project, were determined. 3.4 Training Workshop on Climate Screening Matrix The climate screening matrices were introduced at two separate training workshops to those project staff from ASPS-II and WSSPS-II who were assigned to fill in the matrices by the respective project managements. The training workshops also focused on the purpose, logic, and process of climate screening and went through practical examples of the different projects (for instance, hardware and software). The workshop participants provided feedback on the screening matrices and open discussions were held for better clarity of each participant. The participants of each project used the matrix for assessing the climate screening identifying hazards, their risk and vulnerabilities; identifying coping mechanism being adopted or that could be adopted in future considering the present and future impact of climatic disaster in each agro-ecological/hydrological zone. 3.5 Project Screening Process Following the training workshops, project staff were requested to fill in the matrices. The consultants also provided support to some projects through one-to-one meetings. The screening of the projects was done at two levels: at the project level (as mentioned above) at the field level Page 11

15 The consultants undertook field trips to the North West and Coastal Belt for the field level screenings. The field level screening was done through a participatory process with the field level stakeholders (communities, user groups, local government representatives, field level staff from the projects and government staff). The consultants prepared consolidated screening matrices based on all the project matrices and the field level matrices. The consolidated screening matrices for the two programmes are provided in Annex A and Annex B, respectively. A workshop was held at Westin Dhaka on February 3 rd, Preliminary findings from the screening exercise as well as preliminary adaptation options were presented and also discussed in groups. The groups came up with comments and also a number of further adaptation options, which have been included in this report. Page 12

16 4 SCREENING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS ASPS II The climate screening exercise for ASPS-II has identified different types of climate change related hazards, as well as their level of impacts on natural resources, livelihoods, the production system and health conditions within poor farming communities. In addition to this, a number of preliminary adaptation options have been identified. This screening result section provides a summary of the data and information collected from the ASPS-II screening exercise. The detailed matrices are presented in Annex-A. 4.1 Main Climate Change Hazards Various climate change risks have been identified by the different stakeholders consulted through the screening process. The types of climate change hazards, and their impacts on the poor farmer households, vary by geographical sub-regions. A summary of the main climate change hazards (those hazards rated as being HIGH risks by the use of the risk score matrix in Table 3) is presented for each agro-ecological zone in Table 4 below (detailed risk score cards for each zone is presented in Annex A). Table 4: Main Climate Change Hazards identified for different agro-ecological zones Agro-Ecological Zone Flood plain Low water table area Coastal zone Haor Basin/ Low lying area Main Climate Change Hazards Drought Yearly unpredictability in rainfall Increase or decrease in rainfall Water logging Sedimentation Increased of average temperature Drought Increased temperature (increase in winter temperature is higher than summer temperature) Change and unpredictability of rain patterns Decreased rainfall (in number of rainy days and winter rainfall decrease more than monsoon season) Increased average temperature Change and unpredictability in rain patterns Increased Rainfall Sea level rise and salinity Cyclone, Tidal and Storm Surges Water logging and drainage congestion Coastal inundation and flooding Coastal erosion and sedimentation Flood/flash flood and inundation 4.2 Main Impacts from Climate Change Hazards Due to the broad coverage of ASPS-II (agriculture, fisheries and livestock, rural roads and market access), and the integrated approach applied by the three ASPS-II components, it has made most sense for the ASPS-II climate screening team to consider ASPS-II as a Rural Development Page 13

17 Programme and thus focus the screening exercise on how the various climate change hazards are affecting the living conditions of poor farming households through changes in the environment and livelihoods (see also the ASPS-II Risk Identification Diagram in Figure 1). In the two sections below, the various impacts from the identified major climate change hazards will be presented and briefly discussed for the two main ASPS-II areas of intervention: 1) The drought prone area in the North western part of Bangladesh and, 2) The coastal zone in the southern part of Bangladesh Low Water Table Zone (North western/drought prone) Changes in rainfall patterns and temperature increases were identified as the main climate change hazards within drought prone areas. From the field visits it was reported that the overall number of rainy days were decreasing and that rainfall in the winter season was decreasing more than in the monsoon season. The reported changes in rainfall and temperatures are having an adverse impact on the natural capital, mainly due to lack of water. These negative impacts include a) degradation of soil quality by decreasing organic matter in soil; b) degradation of water quality; and c) drying out of water bodies during the dry season. The adverse impacts from climate changes on the natural capital provide a number of challenges In terms of crop production and fisheries/livestock. This includes higher frequency for outbreak of diseases and pest attack (crops), shortage and unpredictability of cultivation seasons (crops and ponds), loss of fishing days and decrease in cultivable and grazing land. In terms of human resources the rise in temperatures and scarcity of water are also leading to decreased working efficiency due to inadequate drinking water and subsequent dehydration. From the field visits it was found that the negative impacts from the climate change hazards on the farmer s livelihoods were causing serious socio-economic consequences within the communities. In terms of crop production, it was reported from farmer s focus group discussions that crop production had decreased, on average, percent, due to the climate factors. In addition to this, the farmers also reported general losses in other income generating activities including fisheries and livestock as well as fewer opportunities for employment. From the field visits it was also reported that the climate change hazards were leading to increases in burden of human diseases such as skin diseases, diarrhoea, etc. Likewise, less intake of fish/animal protein due to decreasing fish production and animal husbandry was also leading to malnutrition among the community households. The key impacts on the poor farming households from the main climate change hazards are provided in Table 5 overleaf. Page 14

18 Table 5: Summary of Impacts from major Climate Change Hazards in Northwest Drought Prone Zone Climate Change Hazard Impacts on Natural Resources Livelihoods Production System Human Health Drought Drying out of water bodies Gradual decline of groundwater table Degradation of soil quality Decreased duration of fishing and fish culture Decrease in cultivable land and land for grazing for cattle Decreased number of working days of daily labour/fishers Decreased crop and fish production by 25-30% Increased irrigation costs Decreased milk production Increased prevalence of skin diseases, diarrhoea etc. Increased dehydration Decreased intake of fish and animal protein leading to malnutrition Increase in average temperature Same as above Decreased working efficiency, scope and opportunity Increase in diseases and pest Decreased crop yield (drying out of pollen before pollination) Decreased production of wheat and potato and cold dependent vegetables; Increased cost of irrigation Increased dehydration Increased prevalence of diseases such as heat stroke, vector borne diseases, physical and mental disorder Change and unpredictability of rain patterns Decreased rainfall Decreased cultivable area due to lack of rainfall (dryness) and excess rainfall (flooding) during sowing of seed and seedlings Drying out water body in the winter season Decrease in wage labour jobs especially in crop field due to early rain or late rain Increased outbreaks of diseases and pest Decrease in working scope of daily labour and fishing days of the fishermen. Reduced crop yield and damage fruit production (due to rain during flowering stage) Excess rainfall before harvesting time delay crop harvest and also affect/hamper cultivation of next crop due to moisture stress and sometimes season passes over Crop damage Decrease in yield due to untimely rainfall that washes out pollen; Increased production cost for supplementary irrigation Increase outbreak of pest Increased prevalence of human diseases Increased vector borne diseases Page 15

19 4.2.2 Coastal Zone (Patuakhali/Barguna and Noakhali) In the coastal zone, the ASPS-II screening team found that more climate change hazards were considered as high risks to the livelihoods and living conditions of the poor farming households than in the drought prone areas. It must be noted however, that within the coastal zone there are significant local differences between the levels of impact of the various hazards. Some of the major climate change hazards identified for, respectively, Partuakhali / Barguna and Noakhali were identical. This was the case for cyclones, excess rainfall, lack of rainfall / drought and riverbank erosion. In addition, in Noakhali water logging and salinity were also identified as being main hazards within some local areas while in Patuakhali / Barguna tidal surges and sea level rises were more of a serious issue to farmers within some communities. Some of the key adverse impacts from the climate change hazards in the coastal zone include a) loss of land (homestead, agriculture, grazing), b) degradation of soil quality, c) degradation of water quality, d) increased volume of water bodies, e) damage to infrastructure, and f) loss of sea/river fishing days. Key impacts identified on livelihoods due to major climate change risks included a) loss of land and household assets, b) increased burdens on women c) loss of different production assets including livestock and poultry d) damage of infrastructure including road, markets and educational institutions. The various impacts on livelihoods from the climate change hazards are affecting socio-economic living conditions within the communities through gradual and increased food insecurity, shrinking of local employment opportunities, and reduction of crops, fish production and livestock resources as well as increases in different diseases to both human and livestock. As a consequence of this, the seasonal migration from communities in the coastal zone is reported to be increasing. In terms of health, it was reported from the farmers in the coastal zone that outbreaks of some diseases, especially skin diseases and diarrhoea, as well as increased prevalence of colds and coughs, are getting more common. Table 6 overleaf provides a summary of the main climate change impacts identified in communities within the coastal zone. Page 16

20 Table 6: Summary of Impacts from Major Climate Change Hazards in Coastal Zone Climate Change Hazard Impacts Natural Resources Livelihoods Production System Human Health Cyclone Increased temperature Increased / excess rainfall Riverbank erosion Degradation of land and soil quality Pollution of surface water (canal/pond) Scarcity of water for drinking and domestic use Scarcity of cattle fodder Damage of ecosystem Drying out of surface water sources and loss of biodiversity Increase in soil moisture stress Scarcity of water for drinking and domestic use Inundated low lying land Damage to infrastructure, specially kutcha road Damage of embankment, roads Loss of assets such as homestead trees, houses or small scale infrastructure Scarcity of safe water for drinking and domestic uses Ponds/cannels filledup by deposition of sand/silt and dry out Decrease in working days of daily labour and fishing days for fishers Damage to rural infrastructure Collapse of market sheds Loss of boats, nets and other fishing equipments Loss and damage of assets (houses, hh assets, trees, cattle, fish, poultry, goats, sheep etc.) Damage to stored food and seeds Decreased working efficiency Decreased working scope of daily labour, fisher Damage to communication system Increase in prices of necessary goods in market Decrease in employment opportunity of daily labourers Loss of assets like houses, household assets, trees, cultivable land, pond, homestead etc. Damage of infrastructure like roads, embankments, school, college, madrasa, mosque etc. Migration of people to other places for shelter and work for income earning Damage of standing crops by 50% to 100% Decreased production from fish ponds and livestock Decrease in soil productivity Difficulties in accessing markets Decrease in production of winter crops and fruits Increase in diseases and pests harmful to crops Damage to standing crops Damage to seedling and hamper preparation of seed bed Affect plantation of Aman seedling in time which also affects existing cropping pattern/delay cultivation Wash out of fish from ponds Create acute scarcity of fodder for cattle Increase in diseases for cattle specially khura (local name) Loss of cultivable /crop land, homestead land Damage standing crops and decrease production Loss of lives Increase in diseases outbreak specially skin disease, dysentery and diarrhoea Increase in skin disease, diarrhoea, heat stroke and dysentery etc. Increase in disease of children like cold, cough, pneumonia, diarrhoea, fever etc. Page 17

21 Sedimentation Tidal surge (Only Patuakhali / Barguna) Unpredictable Rainfall Sea Level Rise (Only Patuakhali / Barguna) Flooding Loss of cultivable land Decrease of surface water Silted up rivers, canals, beels, ponds etc. and decreased water holding capacity Bio-diversity loss Loss of local fish species Decrease in fishing scope and aquaculture Pollution of pond water that creates scarcity of water for domestic use Increase river erosion as well as loss of cultivable land Degradation of land Scarcity of drinking water Degradation of soil quality due to salinity Negative impact on ecology, environment and the biodiversity system Acute scarcity of drinking water in the coastal area where harvested rain water is the major source of drinking water Inundation of low land by saline water Loss of cropping land and crop production Damage of the Sundarbans mangrove forest Loss of biodiversity Degradation of soil and land quality Scarcity of fodder and grass Erosion in embankment Changes in fishing patterns Causing problems for drainage Damage of embankment Damaged of infrastructure e.g. houses, road, school, college, madrasa, mosque etc. Loss of assets e.g. cattle, poultry, goat etc. Damage life and livelihoods Damage communication system Increase in food shortage Decrease in working efficiency and income Loss of livelihoods sources/ work opportunities Damage of road side trees and plants, homestead gardening, fruit trees, vegetation Increased migration (climate refugees) Increase in food prices due to decrease of supply in markets Damage to rural infrastructure / road pavement and failure to structures Asset losses like cattle, goat, poultry etc. Decreased fishing from open water bodies/sources Hamper irrigation and crop production system Damage of standing crop Washout of pond fish Loss of standing crop due to water hyacinth or others water weed (aquatic weed) that cover the crop field occur/ come during panicle initiation stage Hamper cultivation pattern Affect/decrease production of Aus paddy Affect raising of Aus paddy seedling on time Increase in crop diseases and pest attack Production crops, vegetation, fruits, fresh water fish culture/ production will be severely affected Loss of crop and fish production or decrease of yield by up to 80% Outbreak of diseases specially skin disease, diarrhoea and dysentery etc Increase in amount of harmful insects at home Outbreak of diseases like diarrhoea, cholera, Page 18

22 Salinity (Only Noakhali) Increased salinity in top soil Scarcity of drinking water Damage to biodiversity Damage to fresh water fish production Soil degradation Limits scope of employment Scarcity of fodder for cattle Decrease in land productivity Decrease in yield of rabi crops Reduced growth and yield of standing crops Increased seasonal fallow land area Damage to fresh water fish production typhoid, skin diseases etc. Outbreak of new diseases such as high blood pressure, dysentery, diarrhoea, gastric skin disease etc. Water logging (Only Noakhali) Increased water pollution, create diseases Decreased employment opportunity of daily labourers Damage to rural infrastructure Erosion in embankment Damage to road pavement Damage to standing crops Decrease yield of Aman paddy due to late plantation Scarcity of cattle fodder and decrease of livestock resources Affect winter vegetables cultivation Increase in diseases from water pollution 4.3 Risk Assessment and Rating The definition of risk (severity x frequency) and how the risk has been categorized into different levels (i.e. High, Medium and Low) are described in Section 3 (methodology). Figure 3 below illustrates the principle of the applied risk assessment model, using as an example the screening of AEC in the drought prone area. In Figure 3 the scores of severity and frequency for different hazard events are illustrated for a specific component (AEC), within a specific area (drought prone), and are plotted in the x-axis and y-axis, respectively. By using the risk score matrix, different climate change hazards are divided into high risks (red zone), moderate risks (yellow zone) and low risks (green zone) based on how the hazards adversely impact the socio-economic circumstances of poor farming households. In this case, as it can be seen from the figure, temperature increase, decease and unpredictability in rainfall and drought are all located in the red high risk area. Likewise, it can be seen that fogginess, high speed winds and stone rain/hail storm are considered to be of moderate risk and that the risk for acid rain of low to none. The diagram illustrates that risks due to the various hazards in this case are located throughout the whole diagram. The same kind of risk assessment has been carried out for AEC within the coastal zone as well as for the other ASPS-II components. Together, these risk assessments provide a good overview of the various hazards and their risk both within and across ASPS-II components and agro-ecological zones. Page 19

23 Figure 3: Risk score matrix (AEC, drought prone area) F R E Q U E N C Y Fogginess -High speed wind -Stone rain/hail storm -Temp. increase -Unpred. rainfall -Decrease rainfall -Drought -Acid rain S E V E R I T Y Based on this risk screening exercise, the major hazards (those identified as high risks and located within the red area) have been identified. The impacts from these high risk hazards have subsequently been the point of departure for identification and discussion of adaptation options. It should here be noted that this approach differs from that of screening the WSSPS-II where the classification of risks have been based on clustering of outputs of the sector programme. This is due to the different natures of the programmes, i.e. the broad coverage (rural development) and the integrated approach applied by the ASPS-II. Page 20

24 5 IDENTIFICATION OF ADAPTATION OPTIONS ASPS II In response to the major climate hazards and their impact identified for each agro-ecological zone through the climate screening exercise, a number of preliminary adaptation options have been proposed and discussed through the stakeholder consultations. The identified adaptation options may be considered either as a) mechanisms to deal with adverse impacts of present and future climate change and related disasters or as b) opportunities to take advantage of the climate changes. Based on an assessment of the proposed adaptation options, the ASPS-II screening team has found it useful to categorize the adaptation options into three different clusters: a) Reduction of Exposure. Exposure refers to the state of the system being exposed to anything that may adversely affect it and the particular focus is on natural and human systems. Different systems are exposed to different climate related extreme events in different ways and scale also varies. The reduction of exposure implies the adoption of strategies or measures that will reduce the exposure of the system. It is to be noted that most of the measures to reduce exposure will be of a physical nature or involve changing in timing of practices. b) Reduction of Sensitivity and building of Resilience. Sensitivity refers to the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise). Measures related to reduction of sensitivity and building resilience are research and innovation, changes in practices, and physical interventions particularly bringing modifications of the exiting measures. c) Building of Adaptive Capacity of vulnerable communities. Building of adaptive capacity of the community is primarily related to enhancement of the capacity to deal with challenges. This can be done through implementation of different types of soft measure including training, education and adoption of alternative livelihood systems. In the following, a number of specific adaptation options are presented for each of the three ASPS-II Components in relation to the adaptation clusters. The adaptation options are divided into three different categories: - Those adaptation options that are already considered within the ASPS-II Components - Those adaptation options that are NOT currently considered within the ASPS-II Components but could possibly be so, and - Those adaptation options that are NOT currently considered within the ASPS-II Components and are less likely to be so. These adaptation options would need to be implemented outside the programme. Page 21

25 5.1 Adaptation Options for AEC Table 7 below provides an overview of some of the main preliminary adaptation options identified in relation to AEC. Table 7: Adaptation Options for AEC Adaptation Cluster Present adaptation measures Options available within the scope of the present project Options available outside the scope of the present project Reduction of Exposure Road side and homestead base tree plantation Raise ground for livestock Increase height and width of embankment Creation of green belt in both sides of river banks, road sides and embankments Reduction of Sensitivity and building of Resilience - Some farmers are cultivating chickpea on their own initiatives as a new drought tolerant crop during rabi season - Demonstration of different agro technologies particularly crop variety with farmers (limited scale) Change in cropping pattern including introduction of short duration crop varieties Change sowing and plantation time of seeds and seedlings Training of farmers in soil health management Improve drainage system through improvement of sluice gate Re-excavation of ponds and canals Develop photo insensitive crop varieties Saline tolerant variety development Disease tolerant varieties developed Develop and introduce temperature tolerant and less water demanding crop varieties Building of Adaptive Capacity of vulnerable communities - Some seeds of rice and vegetables are being supplied to the farmers to establish demonstration plot Support to more alternate livelihood activities for income generation (i.e. handicraft, fruits) Homestead gardening, poultry, sheep etc. Arrange demonstrations and workshops on new technology and improved linkage between farmers, research, and extension. Support initiatives of farmer clubs and farmer groups on market research and feasibility studies including on possibilities for establishing of local energy supplies (biogas, solar, water etc.) Integrated water and land resources management within rural communities Page 22

26 5.2 Adaptation Options for RFLDC Table 8 below provides an overview of some of the main preliminary adaptation options identified in related to RFLDC. Table 8: Adaptation Options for RFLDC Adaptation Cluster Present adaptation measures Options available within the scope of the present project Options available outside the scope of the present project Reduction of Exposure. Build cyclone shelters for the cattle and poultry birds Emphasis on fast growing species Adjust aquaculture cycle considering the season of cyclone Raise boundary of ponds and shrimp gher Reduction of Sensitivity and building of Resilience Building of Adaptive Capacity of vulnerable communities Some income diversification activities have been introduced (i.e. homestead gardening, poultry, sheep) Allow some floating type aquatic weeds (e.g. kangkong) Dry fodder for the cattle Ensure vaccination and deworming on regular basis Arrange for restocking of fish after purifying pond / gher water Adequate fencing (net or cloth) to protect shrimps ghers Potential options for community based fisheries management and duck rearing for water logging area Support to more alternate livelihood activities for diversifying income generation (i.e. handicraft, fruits) Training of Fishermen in boat design techniques ( to improve safety) Proper maintenance and re-activate the sluice gates to ensure water flow and fish and fingerlings migration Climate resilient housing for cattle and poultry particularly shades and repair the existing shades on a regular basis Plantation inside and outside the embankments to reduce surge height and wind speed of cyclone to protect livestock Increase and ensure community participation in community resource management Arrange proper treatment facilities for livestock just after large tidal surge backed by cyclones Provide credit facilities for the fishermen to purchase boat and nets immediate after major disasters which incur loss of assets Support initiatives of farmer clubs and farmer groups on market research and feasibility studies including possibilities for establishing of local energy supplies (biogas, solar, water etc.) Integrated water and land resources management within rural communities Page 23