CROP CONDITIONS BULLETIN: June 2018

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1 CROP CONDITIONS BULLETIN: June 2018 National Synthesis (Maize, Beans and Wheat) SUMMARY Prevailing conditions are favourable for maize production in most parts of the Country. The government fertilizer subsidy program has also contributed to favourable maize performance. There has been a reduction in FAW infestatiion due to intensive rainfall recived in most parts of the Country. However, extremely wet conditions adversely affected beans production in most parts of the country. Frost occurrence in the Central highlands also affected beans production leading to rotting. Wheat production is favorable in most of the growing areas. Wholesale priceso of most commodities continued to decline. Map showing regional crop conditions information in Kenya as at 23 rd. June 2018 for maize, wheat and beans. The crop Monitor map is based on a combination of several variable including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops with conditions that are other than favorable are labeled on the map with their driver. OUTLOOK (Kenya Met Department (KMD)/State Department of Crops Development (SDCD) Good maize crop performance is expected to continue over most parts of Kenya. The expected enhanced rainfall in Western Highlands and parts of North Rift and Central highlands will lead to further improvement in crop performance in the areas. However, beans production has been adversely affected in most parts of the country due very wet conditions with localized flooding in many parts of the country as well as frost in the Central highlands. Contents National Synthesis 1 Assessment by Region 2 Assessment by Crop.4 Climate outlook..6 information..7 Definitions.10 Partnerships P a g e State Department of Crops Development

2 Assessment by Region In central region, conditions are favourable for maize production in all counties since the infestation by FAW that was experienced in most areas has been brought under control through extension advisories, chemical control and high rainfall that suppressed the pest in the region. In Nyandarua and Nyeri counties, wheat crop is in favourable condition. Beans performance is poor in all the counties. In Nyeri and Kirinyaga, continued wet conditions have resulted in rotting of the mature crop in the field. Outlook: Following the good performance of the long rains and the current prevailing moist conditions coupled with the effective control of the FAW, favorable yields of maize and wheat are expected. However the excessive long rains and moist conditions have affected performance of beans resulting in below average yields. In Coast Region, maize production conditions are favourable in Lamu, Tana River, Taita Taveta and Mombasa counties where the crop is in early dough stage. However, in Kwale county, maize production conditions are under watch owing to resurgence of FAW attributed to reduced rainfall; some of the farmers opting to sell green maize to minimize losses. In Kilifi, maize performance is poor due to prolonged wet conditions in late May to midjune resulting in water logging and leaching of nutrients. As a result about 20% of the crop became stunted in the County. Beans production in Taita Taveta, Tana River, Kilifi and Kwale has declined due to wet conditions and floods. Outlook: The reduction of heavy rains in the coastal region are expected to be favourable for maize ripening except for Kilifi and Kwale counties where the crop has been affected by extended wet conditions and FAW respectively. Overall, beans production declined in the region due to heavy rains and floods in several counties. In Taita Taveta, farmers are expected to complete harvesting of beans with recorded below normal yields. In North Rift, favorable conditions for maize production are expected in the region. However the crop is under watch in Baringo due to isolated cases of flooding and in ElgeyoMarakwet where 40% of the maize crop has been under FAW attack. Beans are likely to perform poorly in the region due to wet and moist conditions which affected the crop during flowering and podding stages as well as high prevalence of fungal diseases. Conditions for wheat production are poor in TransNzoia and Elgeyo Marakwet due to prolonged heavy rains that have affected land preparation and other farm operations. Outlook: Stable conditions are expected to continue with normal maize yields expected due to favorable conditions. However the conditions of beans are expected to worsen in West Pokot, Trans Nzoia and Uasin Gishu resulting in low yields. In ElgeyoMarakwet beans production is expected to recover but still drop by about 20%. Wheat conditions are expected to be under watch due to heavy rainfall, which is affecting field operations. In Narok, heavy rains affected land preparation and other field activities resulting in reduced acreage. In South Rift region, conditions are favorable for maize and wheat production. In Narok 65% of the maize crop is in early reproductive stage and has been affected by the FAW and mild incidences of MLND disease. The heavy rains received in some counties resulted in waterlogging and leaching of nutrients in some farms. In Nakuru county, beans production was affected by excessive rains resulting in poor growth that has affected about 40% of the crop. The rest of the counties will experience reduced beans production except in Narok where late planted crop is likely to perform well. Outlook: Normal yields are expected for maize in most of the counties except in Nakuru county where the yields will be above normal if the current conditions persist. However, the wet conditions has resulted in reduced beans production attributed to poor podding and fungal diseases. Up to 50% of beans yield reduction is expected in Nakuru. Wheat production will decline in Narok but will be above normal in Nakuru county. 2 P a g e State Department of Crops Development

3 In Nyanza region, Maize conditions are favorable in Kisii, Nyamira, Migori, Siaya and Kisumu except in in Homabay County where the crop has performed poorly due to FAW infestations that has affected about 30% as well as flooding and waterlogging that has affected about 20% of the crop. Beans conditions are favourable in Nyamira, Siaya and Kisii. However, in Homabay, Kisumu and Migori, beans conditions was affected by the heavy rains that led to high incidences of fungal diseases and pods rotting. Outlook: Normal maize yields are expected in most counties with harvest of the crop likely to commence in early July. In Homabay, the expected maize production is likely decline. In all counties, average to below average bean production is expected due to the heavy rains that did not favor crop development. In Western region, conditions are favorable for maize production. FAW infestation did not cause significant damage to the crop in Vihiga and Kakamega. However, FAW in Bungoma and Busia resulted in decline of about 5% in maize production. Overall, beans performance in the region will be low due to high rainfall and disease incidences. Outlook: Above normal maize production is expected. However, the heavy rains are expected to contribute to low beans production due to rotting and other postharvest losses. In Eastern Kenya Favorable conditions are being experienced in the Lower Eastern region for both maize and beans production. In Makueni, Machakos and Kitui counties, maize is in early dough stage but in the rest of the region the crop is in maturity stage. In Upper Eastern Region, conditions remain favourable for maize production with the crop ready for harvesting in most areas. Beans were affected by excessive rains that created conditions for fungal diseases development. Harvesting is ongoing but some proportion of the crop is being lost due rotting. In Embu the heavy rains received during the season drastically reduced the Fall Armyworm infestation. Outlook: Favorable maize and beans yields are expected in the Lower Eastern region. Harvesting of maize is expected to commence in early July. In the Upper Eastern region, maize yields are expected to be better than Low beans yields are expected with production expected to reduce by 3040% in Embu due to the wet conditions and disease attack. 3 P a g e State Department of Crops Development

4 Assessment by Crop This section provides crop specific assessments for the three major crops that were reported; namely maize, bean and wheat. Most parts of the country are experiencing favourable conditions for maize production except for Kilifi, Kwale, Homa Bay, Marakwet and Baringo where the crop is under watch due to wet/flood conditions and pests. In Kilifi this has resulted in stunted maize crops while in Marakwet and Homa Bay and Narok FAW infestation was observed. Normal production is expected in most areas. Beans production was poor in most parts of the country. However, production was favourable in Lower Eastern Region, Kisumu, Tana River, Kilifi, Kwale and Kisii. In Central Kenya frost affected production 4 P a g e State Department of Crops Development

5 while in the rest of the country wet conditions and resultant diseases affected performance of the crop. Conditions were poor in Bomet, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Nyandarua, Kiambu, Muranga, Nandi, Narok and Embu. Yields are expected to be below normal in most of the affected areas. Conditions for wheat production were favorable in Central and South Rift and parts of North Rift regions but poor in Trans Nzoia and Marakwet due to prevailing high rainfall which hampered land preparation for planting. However, with the expected reduction in rains, the conditions are expected to improve. 5 P a g e State Department of Crops Development

6 Climate outlook National Outlook Precipitation Forecast May According to the Kenya Met Department, several parts of Western, Central Kenya, Coastal region and North Rift are likely to experience generally enhanced rainfall (Dark Green). Drier conditions are expected in other parts of the country which might have an adverse effect on the crops which are yet to mature for harvesting. Regional Outlook: Forecast for JuneJuly AugustSeptember (JJAS) During MarchApril above normal rainfall was received in most parts of the country. The forecast for JuneSeptember (JJAS) 2018 period indicates increased likelihood of near normal to enhanced rainfall over the country. Western and North West Kenya enhanced rainfall is expected to trigger additional flooding. 6 P a g e State Department of Crops Development

7 Price(Ksh) Price(Ksh) June 2018 Issue 1 information The section provides the early morning wholesale monthly average prices of Maize, beans and wheat in major markets across the country. 1. Maize In June Dry maize prices averaged Ksh down from Ksh 2600 in May, with Kisumu selling at the highest price of Ksh per 90 Kg bag. Wholesale Prices (Dry Maize) 3,500 3,000 2,500 1,500 1, March April May June Green maize was selling at an average price of Ksh 2800 a decrease from May s Average price of Ksh with Mombasa topping the price at Ksh 5400 down from Ksh in May per 115 Kg bag. 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 3,000 1,000 Wholesale Prices (Green Maize) March April May June 2. Beans In June beans were selling at an average price Ksh for the Canadian Wonder variety, Ksh for Mwitemania beans and Ksh5340 for the Rosecoco variety per 90Kgs bag. This represented a decrease in prices for all the varieties when compared with prices in May. 7 P a g e State Department of Crops Development

8 Price(Ksh) Price(Ksh) Price(Ksh) June 2018 Issue 1 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 3,000 1,000 Wholesale Prices (Canadian Beans) March April May June Eldoret recorded the highest prices for the Mwitemania beans which were selling at Ksh. 7200, while in Kisumu, the highest prices were noted for the Canadian Wonder variety. Eldoret, Kitui and Busia recorded the highest prices for the Rosecoco variety. 1 10,000 Wholesale Prices (Rosecoco Beans) 8,000 6,000 March April June July Wholesale Prices (Mwitemania Beans) 10,000 8,000 6,000 March April May June 8 P a g e State Department of Crops Development

9 Price(Ksh) June 2018 Issue 1 3. Wheat Wheat was selling at an average price of Ksh Busia recorded the highest average prices at Ksh Prices were unavailable from most markets. Wholesale Prices (Wheat) 5,000 4,500 3,500 3,000 2,500 1,500 1, Eldoret Isiolo Malindi March April May June 9 P a g e State Department of Crops Development

10 Definitions June 2018 Issue 1 Crop Conditions: Exceptional: Conditions are much better than average* at time of reporting. This label is only used during the grainfilling through harvest stages. Favourable: Conditions range from slightly lower to slightly better than average* at reporting time. Watch: Conditions are not far from average* but there is a potential risk to final production. The crop can still recover to average or near average conditions if the ground situation improves. This label is only used during the plantingearly vegetative and the vegetativereproductive stages. Poor: Crop conditions are well below average. Crop yields are likely to be 10 25% below average. This is used when crops are stunted and are not likely to recover, and impact on production is likely. Failure: Crop conditions are extremely poor. Crop yields are likely to be 25% or more below average. Out of Season: Crops are not currently planted or in development during this time. Drivers: These represent the key climatic drivers that are having an impact on crop condition status. They result in production impacts and can act as either positive or negative drivers of crop conditions. Wet: Higher than average wetness that results in destruction ie due to water logging and leaching of nutrients Extreme Events: This is a catchall for all other climate risks (i.e. frost, hailstorms, mudslides etc.) Late rains: Late start of the season. Flood: Area is flooded Early Rains Cessation: Rains end earlier than expected in the season Pests: Destructive insects, birds or animals. Diseases: Destructive plant diseases. Dry: Drier than average Socioeconomic: Social or economic factors that impact crop conditions (i.e. policy changes, agricultural subsidies, government intervention, etc.) Conflict: Armed conflict or civil unrest that is preventing the planting, or harvesting of the fields by the farmers. Wildlife Damage: Crop destruction by wildlife Partnerships 10 P a g e State Department of Crops Development