Food Supply. Prospect in 2004 REPORT. Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission EWS EARLY WARNING SYSTEM DECEMBER

Transcription

1 Food Supply EWS Prospect in 2004 EARLY WARNING SYSTEM REPORT Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission DECEMBER 2003

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE Glossary of Local Names and Acronyms 3 Executive Summary 4 Introduction 8 Part One: Food Security Prospects in Crop Dependent Areas Tigray Region Amhara Region Oromiya Region 1.4 Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR) Dire Dawa Harari Gambella 27 Part Two: Food Security Prospects in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Areas Afar Region Somali Region 32 Tables: Table 1: - Affected population needing food assistance by region 6 Table 2: food requirements by region 6 Table 3: - Affected population and food aid requirement for 2004 in Tigray by Zone 12 Table 4: - Affected population and food aid requirement for 2004 in Amhara by Zone 16 Table 5: - Affected population and food aid requirement for 2004 in Oromiya by Zone Table 6: - Affected population and food aid requirement for 2004 in SNNPR by Zone Table 7: -Affected population and food aid requirement for 2004 in Gambella by Zone 28 Table 8: -Affected population and food aid requirement for 2004 in Afar by Zone 31 Table 9:-Affected population and food aid requirement for 2004 in Somali by Zone 35 Annex 1 Affected Population and Food Requirement in

3 Glossary of Local Names Belg - Short rains/season from February/March to June/July (National) Azmera - Rains from early March to early June (Tigray) Tsedia - Rains from mid June to end of September (Tigray) Birkads - Traditional deep water wells Chat - Mildly narcotic shrub grown as cash crop Dega - Highlands (altitude >2500meters) Deyr - Short rains from October to November (Somali) Ellas - Traditional deep water wells Gu - Main rains from February/March to June/July (Somali) Hagaya - Short rains from October to November (Borena/Bale) Karma - Main rains from July/August to September/October (Afar) Kiremt - Main rains from July/August to September/October (National) Kolla - Lowlands (altitude <1500meters) Meher - Main harvest Sugum - Short rains from March to April (Afar) Woina Dega - Midlands (altitude meters) Acronyms BoA - Bureau of Agriculture CARE - CARE Ethiopia CBPP - Contagious Bovine Pleuro Pneumonia CCPP - Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia CIDA - Canadian International Development Agency CRS - Catholic Relief Service DPPB - Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Bureau DPPC - Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission EMA - Ethiopia Mapping Agency FMD - Foot and Mouth Disease KAT - Kembata Alaba Tembaro MoA - Ministry of Agriculture MoH - Ministry of Health NGO - Non Governmental Organization NMSA - National Meteorological Service Agency PAs - Peasant Associations REST - Relief Society of Tigray SCF/UK - Save the Children Fund/United Kingdom SNNPR - Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples Region UN/OCHA - United Nations/Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UN/WFP/VAM - United Nations/World Food Program/Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping USAID-FEWS - United States Agency for International Development/Famine Early Warning System WVI/E World Vision International/Ethiopia WFP - World Food Program 3

4 Executive Summary In 2003 Ethiopia experienced its most severe humanitarian crisis to date. Nearly a fifth of the country s population 13.2 million people needed relief assistance to survive. The food security situation at the beginning of 2004 has improved somewhat, especially in highland crop-producing areas, where a near-normal Meher season (June to September) allowed a significant increase in production over the last drought year. The November multi-agency pre-harvest assessment conducted by over 20 teams in all zones, except Benshangul Gumuz and the eastern and southern pastoral areas, confirmed that the current season s agricultural production in most areas is expected to be much better than last year and comparable to the five-year average. Jimma, Illubabor, Arsi, East and West Shoa of Oromiya; Awi, West Gojjam and East Gojjam of Amhara; West and Noth West zones of Tigray; and pockets of Hadiya in SNNPR are expecting surplus production. However, production will be below average in Derashe, Burji, Gedeo, lowland areas of Amaro, and parts of Gamo Gofa in SNNPR; eastern Oromiya Region (East and West Hararghe); eastern and southern Tigray; and lowland areas of North Wollo, South Wollo, Wag Hamera, North Gonder, and Oromiya zones of Amhara Region will be below average. In southern and eastern parts of Tigray, there was a notable shift from long-cycle (high-yield) to short-cycle (low-yield) crops because of the near-total failure of the Azmera (Belg) rains, as well as the late start and early withdrawal of the Meher rains. A similar shift occurred in lowland areas of Oromiya Region, where the production prospect remains lower than the long-term average. This shift has a significant impact on overall production, as long-cycle crops normally account for 40% of national production. Although the underlying causes in most cases are chronic or structural, localized acute problems that have further contributed to production losses include: Erratic and low amount of rainfall particularly in lowland areas Loss of livestock in previous years due to recurrent drought Livestock disease Flash floods, heavy rainfall, water logging, hailstorms and land slides Weed infestation, and pest and disease outbreaks Low level of farming input supply Problem of traction power Failure of coffee production and coffee price and Malaria outbreaks. In Afar Region, while pasture regenerated somewhat during a period of good rain in August, some areas (notably Gewane and Buremudaitu in Zone 3) received below normal rains and remain at risk. The regeneration of pasture for cattle and sheep, as well as browse for goats and camels, has improved the physical condition of the livestock that survived the drought, but reproduction and hence milk production remain at below normal levels throughout Afar Region. Although recovery from the 2002 drought and resulting massive livestock deaths is still underway, pockets of food insecurity persist, as herds already severely depleted by the drought continue to face precarious pasture and water conditions. Therefore, recovery from the crisis is far from assured. 4

5 Pastoral areas of Somali Region, lowland Bale and Borena zones of Oromiya and South Omo Zone of SNNP regions are facing another potential crisis and an emergency condition is developing in these areas. The late onset of the Deyr season rains (October to December) in most of Somali Region has exacerbated existing water and pasture shortages, particularly in Warder, Fik, and Korahe zones, which had also experienced failure of Gu season (March-May) rains. Shinile Zone received erratic Karan (July- September) rains, following a prolonged drought, while neighboring Jijiga Zone received normal rains. The Pastoral Area Assessment of Somali Region, Borena, and South Omo to be completed by the end of December 2003 will provide further information on the food security situation in those areas, as well as the emerging crisis. Malaria remains the major threat to human health throughout the country, especially in mid- and lowland areas. Incidence of malaria has even extended to most highland and midland areas where it has not been common before. Malaria can be expected to have an impact on harvesting and on food security, especially if current outbreaks are not brought under control. Thus, although the food security outlook at the beginning of 2004 is better than last year s, there is still cause for vigilance and concern. Food insecurity remains rampant due to chronic or structural factors such as recurring droughts (particularly in the eastern lowlands), depleted asset bases of both farmers and pastoralists, lack of purchasing power, and unstable markets. Much of SNNPR, for example, is anticipating a market drops because farmers will have to sell their produce immediately after harvest to repay loans for farming inputs (e.g. fertilizer). Moreover, health offices in Raya Azebo, Wukro, and Ganta Agfeshum (Tigray), Afder Zone (Somali Region), Eastern Hararghe (Oromiya), and lowland areas of East Gojjam Zone (Amhara) report increased signs of malnutrition, especially among children. The current situation in the pastoral areas of Somali, lowland Bale and Borena zones of Oromiya and South Omo in SNNP regions is alarming and beyond chronic crises. In cropping areas, the magnitude of the current shock, particularly the erratic rains that have affected long cycle crops of maize and sorghum in lowland areas, is severe, putting farmers in a difficult position to cope by themselves and by any means. A major humanitarian crisis is anticipated unless humanitarian assistance is provided. The multi-agency pre-harvest assessment teams determined that a total of 7,181,400 people (about 10% of the total population) will need humanitarian food assistance beginning in January 2004, while 2,187,600 will require close monitoring. Table 1 below summarizes the number of people expected to require food assistance and close monitoring in each region. Pastoral area assessment is soon to be undertaken in Somali, Borena and South Omo. Currently it is assumed that the 2003 beneficiary figure will remain the same at 1.1 million. More concrete information will be given in January/February 2004, after the end of the multi-agency pastoral area assessment is completed. Furthermore, the current estimate is based on the assumption that the 2004 Belg season and the main rainy season in the pastoral areas will be normal. Out of a total of 300 woredas needing food assistance this year, 135 (45%) have been under emergency food assistance consecutively for the past 7-10 years. As a result, out of the total population needing food assistance, four to five million are expected to be chronically food insecure while the balance are expected to be the unpredictable 5

6 caseload. The chronically food insecure are the most destitute and their lives and livelihoods are at risk unless adequate attention is given. A disaster situation will occur unless there is a timely and adequate response. Table 1: Population Needing Humanitarian Food Assistance Region Population in Need of Assistance Number of Beneficiaries Close Total Affected Male Female Total Monitoring Population Afar 225, , ,400 72, ,500 Amhara 1,010, ,878 2,000, ,300 2,308,300 Dire Dawa 38,023 35,177 73, ,200 Gambella 17,823 16,977 34,800 9,900 44,700 Harari 6,928 6,572 13,500 3,000 16,500 Oromiya 792, ,197 1,556,700 1,061,000 2,617,700 SNNP 419, , , ,800 1,245,200 Somali 592, ,790 1,120,100 47,000 1,167,100 Tigray 547, ,914 1,107, ,502 1,422,502 Total 3,649,443 3,531,957 7,181,400 2,187,602 9,369,702 Relief requirements due to predictable and unpredictable causes are estimated at 964,690 MT, consisting of 761,175 MT cereals, 104,561 MT blended food (Famix), 76,117 MT pulses, and 22,837 MT oil. With the exception of blended food all items are targeted to all beneficiaries while blended food is targeted only for 35 % of the beneficiaries in those woredas that are severely affected due to current shock. As already indicated above, some areas will have a surplus this year. Even most areas that are expected to be self-sufficient will bring their products to the market to cover most of their needs other than food. Currently, farmers in some places have already started to supply maize to the market at a reduced price. This trend will continue in the near future, particularly during the first three months of 2004, as farmers are required to pay back the loans of various agricultural inputs. Local purchase of the food requirement is encouraged by all actors of humanitarian aid in order to stabilize the market and protect the livelihood of the community. Table 2: 2004 Food Requirements by Region in Metric Tonnes (MT) Region Cereals Famix Pulses Oil Total Afar 33,560 4,658 3,356 1,007 42,581 Amhara 177,405 8,460 17,741 5, ,928 Dire Dawa 6,588 1, ,421 Gambella 2, ,660 Harari 1, ,693 Oromiya 166,359 29,859 16, ,846 SNNP 80,694 2,484 8,069 2,421 93,668 Somali 144,333 43,300 14,433 4, ,396 Tigray 148,698 13,469 14, ,498 Total (MT) 761, ,561 76,117 22, ,690 Note that food requirement is calculated at a monthly ration rate of 500 g/person/day of cereals, 150g/person/day of blended food for selected severely affected areas, 50g/person/day of pulses and 15g/person/day vegetable oil. 6

7 Map 1. Needy Population by Zone for the Year E. Tigray W. Tigray Tigray C. Tigray Mekele Zone2 S. Tigray W. Hamra N. Gonder Legend Needy Population 11,00-40,000 40,001-90,000 Zone4 Afar N. Wello Zone1 S. Gonder Bahir Dar Amhara Metekel W. Gojam Agew Awi S. Wello Oromiya B.Gumuz Harary E. Gojam Zone5 Asosa Shinile Zone3 Kamashi N. Shewa (R3) Dire Dawa N. Shewa (R4) E. Wellega Dire Dawa Tongo SW Harar/Hundene Jijiga W. Wellega West ShewaAA Zone4 AA Zone3 AA Zone6 E. Harerge W. Haraerge S.W. Shewa E. Shewa Illubabor Zone 1 Zone 3 Gurage Degehabur Jimma Gambella Yem SW Selti Arsi Fik Zone 2 Sheka Hadiya Godere Alaba SW Oromiya KT Warder Keffa Hadiya Dawro Welayita Somali Bale Sidama Korahe Bench Maji SNNPR Basketo SWGamo Gofa Gedeo Gode 90, , , , , ,600 No Assessed Need Region Boundary Amaro SW Dirashe SW Burji SW South Omo Konso SW Guji Afder Borena Liben KM Boundaries are unofficial and approximate prepared by DPPC, EWD. December, 2003 Map 2. Food Requirement of Affected Population by Zone for the Year E. Tigray W. Tigray Tigray C. Tigray Mekele Zone2 S. Tigray W. Hamra N. Gonder Legend Food Rquirement in MT 100-5, 000 5, , 000 Zone4 Afar N. Wello Zone1 S. Gonder Bahir Dar Amhara Metekel W. Gojam Agew Awi S. Wello Oromiya B.Gumuz Harary E. Gojam Zone5 Asosa Shinile Zone3 Kamashi N. Shewa (R3) Dire Dawa N. Shewa (R4) E. Wellega Dire Dawa Tongo SW Harar/Hundene Jijiga W. Wellega West ShewaAA Zone4 AA Zone3 AA Zone6 E. Harerge W. Haraerge S.W. Shewa E. Shewa Illubabor Zone 1 Zone 3 Gurage Degehabur Jimma Gambella Yem SW Selti Arsi Fik Zone 2 Sheka Hadiya Godere Alaba SW Oromiya KT Warder Keffa Hadiya Dawro Welayita Somali Bale Sidama Korahe Bench Maji SNNPR Basketo SWGamo Gofa Gedeo Gode 15, , , , , , 600 No Assessed Need Region Boundary Amaro SW Dirashe SW Burji SW South Omo Konso SW Guji Afder Borena Liben KM Boundaries are unofficial and approximate prepared by DPPC, EWD. December,

8 Introduction This report brings together findings of a recently concluded DPPC-led Multi-Agency Emergency Needs Assessment. The purpose of the assessment was to provide indications of food needs for the year The findings are based on the analysis of major food security indicators, such as climate and weather, agricultural activities and crop production statistics, livestock conditions, markets, additional income sources, and human and livestock health. The report provides information on where and when current food assistance is required, the magnitude of the beneficiary numbers, their relief needs, causes for any current and anticipated food crisis and areas of immediate concern. Such information is intended to assist planning and implementation of appropriate and timely interventions at different levels within the relief system. The geographical coverage of the assessment includes all zones of the country except for Benshangul-Gumuz, Somali Region, Borena, and South Omo, which are assessed slightly later because of the lateness of their rainy season. To do this 21 teams with approximately 60 experts were dispatched for three weeks starting October 25, Over 15 agencies from governmental organizations, donors, United Nations agencies and NGOs were involved in the assessment. These included: DPPC UN.OCHA SC/UK MoA UN/WFP WVE MoH USAID/FEWS CARE NMSA CIDA REST EMA Concern CRS In addition, staff from relevant line departments at the regional and zonal levels joined the various federal teams when they arrived at the regional and zonal capitals. Teams estimated the number of people requiring emergency relief food assistance at the woreda level. The needs estimating method relies on the qualitative approach, which depends on the judgment of the assessors in the field regarding information provided by regional, zonal, and woreda Early Warning Committees, agricultural and pastoral experts, farmers, pastoralists, and other key informants. The assessment teams received results of zonal assessments and collected other relevant information. The zonal assessments and other information were then reviewed and confirmed by the teams using rapid rural assessment techniques, such as: Interviews with local officials and experts; Interviews and group discussions with key informants and households at the subworeda level; and Physical observation of crop, livestock and market conditions. The report has an Executive Summary that highlights the most salient features of the recent assessment. The body of the report is divided into two parts: Part One addresses situations and food prospects in the main crop growing regions; and Part Two addresses the same themes for the pastoral regions of the country. The report for each region is 8

9 presented separately under five sections entitled: Weather Conditions; Agricultural Activities and Crop Production; Water, Pasture and Livestock Conditions; Human Health Conditions; and Food Security Prospects in The estimates of relief needs contained in this report will be updated in July, following the Belg harvest and Gu rains assessment. Food needs could change either upwards or downwards depending on the outcome of the next short season assessment in the pastoral areas and the coming Belg harvest and the quality of the main season rains in the pastoral areas. Relief food distributions will continue to be implemented at a monthly ration rate of 500 g/person/day of cereals, 150g/person/day of blended food only for selected severely affected woredas, 50g/person/day of pulses, and 15g/person/day of vegetable oil. 9

10 PART ONE: SITUATION IN THE CROP GROWING AREAS 1.1 TIGRAY REGION BASIC FACTS Number of zones.. Number of woredas.... Meher as percent of annual crop production.... Projected rural population for mid Estimated needy population in Needy population as percent of rural population... Food aid requirement (MT) Over 90% 3,433,282 1,107,000 32% 181, Weather Conditions In Southern, Eastern, and Central Zones of Tigray Region, Belg locally called Azmera (early March to early June) and Meher locally called Tsidiya (mid June to end of September) are the two main rainy seasons. In the Western Zone, however, the rainfall normally starts at the end of April and continues up to the end of September This year, in the Central and Western Zones the Belg rains (which are important for longcycle crops) were totally absent. In the Eastern and Southern zones the picture was mixed; some woredas received timely Belg rains whereas in others the rains failed. The amount of rain received during this short rainy season was inadequate and poorly distributed. The Meher rains in the Central and Western Zones were on time in all areas except the lowland parts of the Western Zone. Cessation was timely in highland and mid-altitude areas of Western Zone, whereas they ceased early in Central Zone and the lowland areas of Western Zone. Their distribution was uneven, but nevertheless distribution and quantity was better than in The zones also experience weather adversities like dry spells, hailstorms, floods, excessive rains and dry winds. In the Eastern and Southern Zones the Meher rains were late by two-four weeks and ceased one-two weeks early. The quantity and distribution of these rains was much better than in 2002, but was below normal. Rainfall performance was particularly poor from mid June to mid July Agricultural Activities and Production Prospects The major types of crops planted vary according to agro-ecological zone. Barley and wheat are mainly planted in the highlands while sorghum, maize, finger millet and teff are planted in the midlands and lowlands. The absence of Belg rains affected land preparation in the Central and Western Zones, and parts of Eastern and Southern Zones. In particular, the lack of rains resulted in reduced tillage, which contributed to increased weed and pest infestations later in the year. Timeliness of planting was also affected in all zones, compelling farmers to practice either dry planting or seeding under poor moisture conditions, resulting in poor germination. In most cases, planting of crops (including wheat and barley) had to be delayed until adequate moisture was available, which resulted in a reduced growing 10

11 period (due to early or timely cessation of the rains). The exception was teff, which was planted on time due to favorable rainfall conditions at seeding time. The total area planted in 2003 is close to average in almost all woredas. Raya Azebo in Southern Zone, however, is one of the exceptions, where around 5000 ha of prepared land was left fallow due to unfavorable weather conditions at planting time. However, although cultivated area was close to average, there were considerable changes in the cropping pattern in There was a shift from high yielding long-cycle crops to low yielding short-cycle crops in almost all zones and a near total absence of long-cycle crops in drought-hit areas like Wukro. The area under barley, wheat and hamfetse (a mix of the two) has declined and has been replaced by vetch in parts of the Eastern zone. The combination of poor Belg performance, mixed Meher performance, the shift from long cycle to short cycle crops and occurrence of dry spells, natural hazards and pests and diseases, have all had a negative effect on crop yields. Production in the region in 2003 varies between zones, and in particular the pattern reflects the differences in Meher rain performance between areas. Crop yields are 11 15% below the long-term average in the Eastern and Southern Zones, slightly above average in Central Zone and 31% above average in Western Zone. The worst affected are areas along the Mereb, Werei and Tekeze Valleys as well as the Eastern Lowlands bordering Afar. However, in all zones, crop production is generally much better than last year Water, Pasture and Livestock Conditions The condition of livestock in the region was very poor prior to onset of the main rains in This was due to the drought situation in 2002 and the first half of However, following the start of the Meher rains, the availability of pasture and water for livestock improved significantly. Also, better crop residues are expected at the end of the Meher season, which will contribute to better availability of livestock feed. No unusual livestock mortality or morbidity has been reported in the region, except outbreaks of pasteurolisis and blackleg in Tselemti Woreda. Also, there have been no reports of unusual out-migration of livestock. However, there are PAs in some woredas in Southern and Eastern Zones (Raya Azebo, Wukro, Hintalo Wajirat, Ganta Afeshum, and Saharti Samre) where shortages of pasture and water are already cause for concern. Local officials and community members have expressed fears that the condition of livestock will deteriorate quickly unless the next Belg rains arrive in the next two to three months and perform well Human Health Conditions Increased incidence of malaria has been widely reported in the region, particularly in the lowlands and some midland areas. A decline in normal coverage of spraying and existence of other favorable conditions are said to have exacerbated the problem this year. The scale of the problem has not yet reached epidemic proportions, although some health personnel predict a likely epidemic in the months ahead. Despite on-going control and preventative measures including environmental sanitation, chemical spraying and mass treatment, the disease still persists in many woredas and is cause for serious concern. 11

12 According to reports from Woreda Health Offices in Raya Azebo, Wukro and Ganta Agfeshum (Eastern and Southern Zones) there are reported signs of acute malnutrition in children. Whether the problems are food or health related is as yet unclear. Apart from the malaria outbreak mentioned above, the overall public health situation in the region is stable. However, woreda officials in Raya Azebo have expressed concern regarding the recent rises in incidence of water-borne diseases Food Security Prospect for the Year 2004 In general, livestock market conditions in the region are normal for the time of year. Prices are either stable or slightly higher than normal whereas supply is low but normal. The relative improvement in water and pasture conditions, better crop production prospects compared to last year, and the introduction of the household food security package (that provides cash loans to vulnerable households for purchase of animals) have all discouraged distress sales of livestock. For cereals, the situation in many of the woredas in the Eastern and Southern Zones is normal (prices in parts of Southern Tigray have recently started to fall due to the impact of fresh harvests). In Central and Western Zones, there are reports of increased prices and declines in supply. These market changes have been attributed to the huge production shortfall last year and delays in harvests from the current production season. Both the demand and supply of wage labour have increased slightly in the Western and Central zones. Good production prospects in the high potential woredas of Western Zone, including Humera, have encouraged some household members in the two zones to migrate in search of seasonal wage labour. Food security prospects in Tigray Region will continue to be poor in 2004, although considerably better than last year. In Eastern and Southern zones prospects remain below the five-year average, while in Central and Western Tigray prospects are slightly above average. The causes of this continuing food insecurity include significant crop yield reductions (particularly in the Eastern and Southern Zones), the impact of the 2002/03 drought on livestock which have not yet recovered to normal levels, and chronic food insecurity in the region. The latter is due to a complex set of factors, including recurrent droughts, low soil fertility, increasing population pressure, asset depletion etc. The chronically food insecure have food gaps even in good years, and when faced with acute shocks, have little or no capacity to cope. Overall, the shocks in 2003 combined with the chronic food insecurity problems mean that 1.1 million people will be in need of emergency food assistance in 2004, and a further 315,500 will require close monitoring, in order to identify any changes in their ability to access food. The details of estimated number of beneficiaries and their food requirements are provided in Table 3 below. Table 3: Affected Population and Food Aid Requirements for 2004 in Tigray No Zone Population Needing Food Assistance Close Cereal Famix Pulses Oil Total Male Female Total Monitoring 1 C.Tigray 187, , ,000 53,000 52,290 4,142 5,229 1,569 63,230 2 E.Tigray 150, , ,600 92,000 41,970 7,312 4,197 1,259 54,738 3 S.Tigray 170, , , ,500 43,878 2,016 4,388 1,316 51,599 4 W.Tigray 38,770 37,230 76,000 28,000 10, , ,933 Total 547, ,915 1,107, , ,698 13,469 14,870 4, ,499 12

13 1.2 Amhara Region BASIC FACTS Number of zones.. Number of woredas.... Meher as percent of annual crop production... Projected rural population for mid Estimated needy population in Needy population as percent of rural population... Food aid requirement (MT) Over 90% 16,422,115 2,000,000 12% 208, Weather Conditions Amhara Region benefits from both Belg and Meher (Kremt) rains. While the highland areas predominantly depend on Belg rains for crop production, such rains are also equally important in midland areas for land preparation for the Meher season and in lowland areas for the planting of long cycle crops. Onset and cessation of the Meher rains varies across the region, starting as early as April in the west and between the first and last week of June in the east. The performance of the Belg rain in 2003 was favourable in most Belg producing areas. Onset of the Meher rains was timely in South Wollo, North Wollo, Oromiya and North Shoa Zones, and one to three weeks late in Wag Hamra Zone. Most delay in the Meher rains (three to four weeks) was in the western part of the region (North Gonder, West Gojjam, Awi, East Gojjam and South Gonder Zones) as well as the lowland areas bordering Afar and Southeastern Tigray. The distribution of the Meher rain was uniform, and the amount was considered favourable in most parts of the region. Exceptions were the extreme lowlands bordering Afar in Oromiya, the lowlands of Kobo and Habru in North Wollo, lowlands of Werebabo (Arabati) and Kalu (Argoba) in South Wollo, along the Tekeze River in Ziquala and Abergele areas of Sekota in Wag Hamera Zone, the extreme lowlands in Janamora, Adiarkay, Wogera, Debark and East Belessa weredas in North Gonder Zone. The rain was also erratic and inadequate at the beginning of the season (end June until the second dekad of July) in South Wollo Zone. Dry spells were reported during July and August in Dewa Cheffa and Jile Timuga weredas respectively in Oromiya Zone. Incidences of natural hazards like hailstorms (highland and mid-highland areas), flood, landslides and water logging were reported from different parts of the region, causing damage to crops and negatively affecting production. Cessation was more or less on time, around end of September in the western half of the region and second week of September in the eastern half of the region. In some places in Oromiya, South Wollo and North Gonder the rains extended until the end of September or beginning of October Agricultural Activities and Production Prospects Good Belg rains and timely/near timely onset of the Meher rains in most of the eastern part of the region enabled farmers to start land preparation and planting on time. In 13

14 contrast, these activities were delayed in the western part of the region (two to four weeks in North Gonder and up to six weeks in some parts of West Gojjam), Wag Hamra (one to three weeks) and the lowland parts of North Wollo. In Wag Hamra, the poor condition of oxen is also said to have contributed to delays in land preparation. In areas with favourable rainfall conditions (North Shoa, North and South Wollo), there was an increase in the cultivated area under long cycle crops such as maize and sorghum and short cycle crops were mainly planted on time. Timely land preparation also meant it was possible for repeated ploughing of the land to be carried out, which helped to break the cycle of pests and weeds. In contrast, in areas with delayed and/or erratic rains, there was a reduction in the area planted with long cycle sorghum, maize and millet and a shift to short maturing crops such as barley, wheat and teff. There was also a delay in planting teff and/or a reduction in teff planted in South Wollo and Oromiya due to erratic rains and dry spells. A delay in the provision of inputs was reported as a cause for delaying planting time in East and West Gojjam. Declines in input utilization compared to last year were reported in many zones, including North and South Wollo, South Gonder, Wag Hamra and East Gojjam, and have contributed to production reductions. The major reasons for this were to reduce risk due to the unreliable nature of the rain and high price of inputs. Other factors affecting crop production were moisture stress, pests (shoot fly, grasshopper, aphids, stalk borers), weed infestations (Boren, striga, orobanch), hailstorms, flooding and water logging. All of these factors caused considerable production losses; their effect was particularly felt in the lowlands but Boren and hailstorms particularly affected the highlands and midlands areas. Overall, meher crop performance was rated good compared to both last year and the five-year average. In all zones except North Wollo, agricultural production is expected to be higher than both last year and the five-year average. These production changes at zonal level vary from an increase of 46% in Oromiya Zone to a decrease of 7% in North Wollo Zone. Surplus harvests are expected in parts of East Gojjam (teff), West Gojjam (maize) and Agaw Awi Zones Water, Pasture and Livestock Conditions As a result of favourable Belg and Meher rains, drinking water and livestock feed availability (communal grazing, crop residues and hap from private land) have improved significantly compared to last year in most parts of the region. As a result, the physical condition of livestock in woredas visited was good. However, there were some areas in North Gonder (Adiarkay, Janamora), South Gonder (Foggera, Dera, Libo-Kemkem) and West Gojjam (Quarit, Sekela, Degadamot, Bahirdar Zuria) where grazing and water shortages were reported. There have been no reports of livestock disease epidemics. However, endemic diseases including Black leg, African Horse sickness, Foot and Mouth Disease, Pasteurolosis, Sheep Pox, etc. were reported. Control measures such as vaccination and treatment are underway but are reported to be inadequate in some areas of the region. 14

15 1.2.4 Human Health Conditions Reports of malaria are widespread in the region; prevalence rates were reported to be higher than 2002, and still rising. Although the lowland areas are most affected, malaria cases have also extended to highland and midland areas, especially in North and South Wollo. Although health departments and communities have started control measures, shortages of budget, DDT, medicine and sprayers are contributing to the increasing prevalence. The current outbreak will have a negative impact on harvesting and threshing period unless the situation is controlled as soon as possible. There were few reports of serious malnutrition in children and mothers in some areas of the region. But nutrition surveys carried out by Concern in August 2003 in Kalu and Dessie Zuria Woredas in South Wollo found global acute malnutrition rates of 8.4% and 11.7% respectively. This was a significant improvement compared to survey results from the same time in 2002 (17.4% and 17.8% respectively) Food Security Prospect for the Year 2004 Overall, favourable rainfall and a good meher season have resulted in relatively better crop and livestock production this year. In all zones except North Wollo, crop production estimates are higher than last year and the five-year average. In addition, surplus harvests are expected in parts of East and West Gojam and Agaw Awi, mainly maize and teff. However, some areas faced specific problems that negatively affected crop production. Some zones, particularly, kolla areas in North Wollo and South Wollo bordering Afar and Tigray, kolla areas in East Gojjam bordering the Abay gorge and kolla areas in Wag Hamra bordering Tigray and the Tekeze Basin reported moisture stress and dry spells. Hailstorms, floods, landslides, pests, diseases and weeds in different zones had a significant effect on crop production (particularly the lowlands of Adiarkay, Janamora, Beyeda, Debark and Dabat woredas in North Gonder and the Jawi and Metema resettlement areas). The supply of cereals and livestock to the market is almost normal. However, prices of both cereals and livestock are much higher compared to last year and are slightly higher than the long-term average. Prices are not expected to decline until after the harvest. These higher prices favour producers. The major reason for the rise in livestock prices, particularly for sheep and goats, is increased trade within and outside the region, improved performance of livestock (due to better pasture and water conditions) and increased demand due to restocking by farmers who are replacing stock they lost during last year s shock. Thus household income from livestock sales has benefited from the price increases. Income from other sources such as labour has also improved due to increased labour opportunities. Based on the findings of the crop and livestock situation, market condition, other income sources and health situation, it is estimated that a total of 2,000,000 people will require food assistance in This to a large extent is the chronically food insecure population in the region. Considering only the unpredictable caseload, there was an underestimation of needy population by the Region during the assessment that required further adjustment 15

16 from its earlier estimate of 634,000 to a total of 2 million both for the predictable and unpredictable caseloads. The food requirement of these people is estimated at 208,928 MT. Additionally, 308,300 people need close monitoring. The details of estimated number of beneficiaries and the food requirement are provided in Table 4 below. Table 4 : Affected Population and Food Aid Requirements for 2004 in Amhara No Zone Population Needing Food Assistance Male Female Total Close Monito -ring Food Aid Requirement in MT Cereal Famix Pulses Oil Total 1 N.Wollo 212, , ,100 19,200 42, , ,873 2 Oromiya 77,071 76, ,300 23,600 10, , ,558 3 S.Wollo 243, , , ,200 40,089 3,044 4,009 1,203 48,344 4 E.Gojjam 49,130 48,970 98,100 27,800 7, ,314 5 N.Gonder 190, , ,400 43,100 33,516 2,187 3,352 1,005 40,060 6 N.Shoa 72, ,200 1,000 13, , ,767 7 S.Gonder 128, , ,600 21,900 22, , ,489 8 W.Gojjam , Waghamra 36,168 34,432 70, , , Agew , Total 1,010, ,879 2,000, , ,407 8,460 17,741 5, ,928 Note: the food requirement for Gubalafto woreda in North Wollo Zone and Sekota in Waghamra Zone is not included. Their food requirement will be covered by USAID. 16

17 1.3 Oromiya Region Basic Facts Number of Zones Number of Woredas Meher as percent of annual crop production % Projected rural population for ,605,674 Estimated needy population in ,556,700 Needy population as percent of rural population... 7 % Food aid requirement (MT) , Weather Conditions Onset of short rains (Belg), which normally start in the first dekad of March, was late in most parts of the region except Illubabor, Jimma, South West Shoa and North Shoa. Belg rains were reported to be late by about 4-6 weeks and erratic in the remaining zones. Overall Belg rains were below the long term average and were characterized by irregularity and frequent long dry spells in East Hararghe, West Hararghe, East Shoa, West Shoa, South West Shoa, North Shoa, East Wellega and West Wellega zones. Meher rains that were expected to start in mid June were late by about 4-5 weeks in East Shoa zone, but the Meher onset was reported to be timely, and the amount and distribution pattern were satisfactory in most parts of the region. However, hailstorms, flood and water logging were observed in pocket areas of Arsi, West Shoa, South West Shoa and North Shoa as well as in East Wellega zones. In addition, there was no rain from mid June to the end of July in East Hararghe. The Meher rains ceased earlier than usual by about 2-4 weeks on average, except in Arsi and highland and some midland of Bale and Guji zones. In the mainly pastoral zone of Borena, the short rains normally expected from mid- September to November, locally called Hagaya, either failed completely or were insufficient and erratic, with only two to four rain days in the entire season. This prolongs the dry season to five months, as the next rainy season, locally called Ganna, normally starts from mid-march to mid-may Agricultural Activities and Crop Production Prospect Major crops grown in the region are maize, sorghum, teff, wheat, barley, finger millet and pulses. Maize and sorghum are the most important staple food crops in the region. Cash crop production includes coffee, chat and oil seed. Size of area planted during the season has been comparable to normal in East and West Hararghe and North Shoa, both compared to that of last year and to the five-year average. But there have been slight increases in East Shoa, Arsi, East and West Wellega, Jimma and Illubabor zones. On the other hand, in the lowland woredas of Guji and Bale zones, a substantial decrease in area planted was reported, mainly due to poor rain performance. With regard to timeliness of planting, with the exception of East Shoa, Arsi, highland and midland parts of Guji, Bale as well as Jimma and Illubabor zones, planting have been 17

18 carried out late by about 2-4 weeks on average. The delay in planting was exceptionally significant in East Wellega, where it was 8-10 weeks late. Except in East and West Wellega zones, input (i.e. fertilizer) utilization has been reported to be lower than both last year and the five-year average, mainly due to lack of supply and farmers' limited purchasing capacity. Efforts to address the problem of seed supply in drought-affected zones like East and West Hararghe and East Shoa zones have encountered viability problems; hence the recipient farmers expect a significant production loss. An increase in production over last year is expected in Arsi, East Shoa, West Shoa, Jimma and Illubabor as well as in midland and highland parts of Guji and Bale zones. In contrast, however, significant production loss is anticipated in most lowlands of Guji, Bale, East and West Hararghe zones. In West and East Wellega, however, it is too early to make predictions about production prospects because of the crops late vegetative growth. In general, compared to the long-term average, significant production reduction is anticipated in East and West Hararghe zones while an increase is anticipated in East Shoa and Arsi zones. Production comparable to the long-term average is expected in Jimma and Illubabor, West Shoa, South West Shoa and North Shoa zones. Performance of cash crops, mainly of coffee, is satisfactory in Jimma and Illubabor. However, in East and West Hararghe as well as West Wellega zones, production of coffee was reported to be affected by poor performance of rain, Coffee Berry Disease (CBD) and Coffee Wilt Disease (CWD - Tracheomycosis). Chat production is noted to be comparable to the normal year in chat growing zones Pasture, Water and Livestock Condition In Borena Zone, pasture and water availability are very poor because of the failure of the Hagaya rains. Animals are relying on remnants of old pasture, which are only expected to last another month. The next rains are not expected until mid-march, and there is not enough rangeland to sustain livestock until then. Water shortages are imminent as well; currently water is available from permanent sources, but many ponds and cisterns are almost dry. Because of pasture and water shortages, there are high internal and external livestock movements. The high concentration of livestock in certain areas increases the chances of livestock disease outbreaks. Physical condition of livestock is deteriorating, and death of livestock is expected during the next three months (December to mid- March). Furthermore, availability of pasture and water was below normal in pocket areas of the lowlands of East and Western Hararghe, and pockets in East and South West Shoa and Bale Zones. In the remaining zones of the region, the available pasture and water is anticipated to sustain livestock up to the next rainy season. Regarding livestock disease, those zones along the catchments of the Didessa and Gibe rivers were severely affected by trypanosomiasis. Outbreaks of sheep pox, North African horse sickness, black leg and anthrax in North West Shoa were controlled. In Borena Zone, outbreaks of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and Pest des Petit Ruminants (PPR) among sheep and goats have resulted in a high death rate, and vaccination programs are not yet underway. Livestock condition so far in the other parts of the region was good, and herd size is recovering. 18

19 1.3.4 Human Health Conditions Malaria epidemic was observed in all the zones with an exceptional increase in area coverage in midland and lowland areas. Factors contributing to the spread of malaria are lack of adequate medicine, budgets and spray materials at woreda level. Although control measures are underway in participatory campaigns, the problem is beyond the capacity of the woreda or zonal levels. It is anticipated to have a negative impact on harvesting and food security. In Eastern Hararghe Zone, cases of malnutrition were seen in lowland areas of Kurfachelle, Golo Odo, Fedis, Babile, Girawa and Goro Gutu Food Security Prospect for the Year 2004 Although the production prospect has improved compared to that of last year, in some zones, mainly in lowland areas, crop production is expected to be lower than the five-year average. This is mainly because of late onset, insufficient rains, late planting, moisture stress and a shift from the production of long cycle high yield crops to less productive short cycle crops, coupled with the early cessation of rain. Shortage of input and traction power in pocket areas of the lowlands due to trypanosomes and lump skin disease also had a negative impact on overall production. These factors are anticipated to lead to localized food shortages among the people of some woredas of the affected zones of East Hararghe, West Hararghe, East Shoa, West Shoa, North Shoa, Bale, Guji, Arsi, and East Wellega. The anticipated food shortage particularly in lowlands of East and West Hararghe is much more sever than the others. In Borena Zone, the low price of cattle due to fear of impending drought and the overall poor condition of livestock because of pasture and water shortages have serious implications for food security in According to the pre-harvest assessment, a total of 1,556,700 rural inhabitants of ten zones are estimated to be in need of food aid. Furthermore, nearly 1,061,000 people need close monitoring. These figures are summarized by zone in Table 5 below. Table 5. Affected Population and Food Aid Requirement for 2004 in Oromiya Region No Zone Population Needing Food Assistance Male Female Total 33,373 32,627 66,000 82,717 81, , , , ,600 7,100 6,800 13,900 24,113 24,887 49,000 15,979 15,421 31,400 15,358 15,242 30, , , ,400 59,653 61, ,000 22,250 21,650 43,900 Close monitoring Food Aid Requirement in MT Cereal Famix Pulses Oil Total Arsi Bale E. Hararghe E. Shoa E. Wellega Guji N. Shoa W. Haraghe W. Shoa Borena 42,500 80, , , ,000 53,800 32, ,600 50, ,749 14,300 71,265 1,460 4,410 4,146 2,064 43,652 12,020 6, ,414 15, ,638 3, ,430 7, ,365 1, , , ,626 18,574 95,833 1,649 4,983 4,685 2,332 57,964 17,085 7,112 Total 792, ,197 1,556,700 1,061, ,359 29,859 16,636 4, ,844 19

20 1.4 Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR) BASIC FACTS Number of zones... Number of special woredas.. Meher as percent of annual crop production Projected rural population for mid Estimated needy population in Needy population as percent of rural population... Food aid requirement (MT) % 12,591, ,700 7 % 93, Weather Conditions The onset of the 2003 Meher rains was timely in most parts of SNNPR. A widespread dry spell occurred at the growth stage following a normal onset of rainfall, especially on long cycle crops (e.g. maize) in parts of Hadiya, Silte, Kambata-Tambaro, Gurage, Gamu Gofa, and Wolayta zones. Adverse weather phenomena such as excessive rain, hailstorms, flash floods, landslides, and drainage problems affected many parts of the region. In Derashe, Konso, Burji, and Amaro special woredas, as well as Gedeo and parts of Sidama and Gamu Gofa zones, the onset of rain was late, and the amount was inadequate and unevenly distributed. Early cessation of rain at the grain filling stage happened widely in most of the assessed areas. Although detailed information for South Omo is not yet available (pending the December pastoral area assessment), conditions are likely to be similar to neighboring Borena (Oromiya Region), where the short Hagaya rains failed Agricultural Activities and Crop Production Prospects Land preparation was timely due to the normal onset of rain in most parts of the region such as Hadiya, Silte, Kambata-Tambaro, Gurage, parts of Gamo Gofa and Wolayta Zones. However, late onset delayed by a month and intermittent dry spells affected land preparation in areas such as Derashe, Burji, Gedeo, lowland areas of Amaro, and parts of Gamu Gofa. As a result, a major crop yield decline is expected due to early rain cessation in Konso. In Derashe, land preparation and planting was 20% less than last year, and the season s crop yield is anticipated to be as much as 77% less than last year. In Gedeo, the performance of the Meher is much below average, and coffee production is expected to decline by 45% over last year due to moisture stress at critical growth and flowering stages. A dry spell and moisture stress at the growth stage caused high yield loss in maize. Moreover, excessive rain, hailstorms, flash floods, water logging, drainage problems, and widespread early cessation of rain at the grain filling stage are predicted to cause considerable production loss in several parts of the region. Under- or non-utilization of fertilizer due to a critical shortage, late supply and subsequent rise of the prices in local markets coupled with the inability of farmers to settle outstanding fertilizer loans is predicted to severely hamper the season s production. Improved seed varieties distributed without fertilizer have failed to perform well. In the absence of a full package, farmers have opted more to local varieties. Since the local seeds in the hands of farmers have 20