ETHIOPIA Food Security Update November 2009

Transcription

1 About 6.2 million people, particularly in the eastern marginal cropping areas, the pastoral areas of Somali region,, northern pastoral region of Afar, pastoral and agro pastoral area of Oromiya, SNNPR and most of Gambella face moderate to high levels of food insecurity and continue to require emergency food aid, although household food availability has improved starting in November 2009 with the start of the Meher harvest. Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, November 2009 The Meher harvest is anticipated to be below normal as a result of June September rains which started late, performed erratically, and ended early in some areas. The poor rains have also affected the reproduction and productivity of livestock by contributing to shortages of pasture and water, mainly in the water deficient parts of Afar region. Following the start of the Meher harvest, cereal prices are generally declining following the normal seasonal trend. However, they are still much higher than the fiveyear average and generally unaffordable for the rural and urban poor in both cropping and pastoral areas. Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline Source: FEWS NET and WFP Ethiopia For more information on FEWS NET s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: Scale Source: FEWS NET Food security overview An estimated 6.2 million people continue to need food aid as a result of successive poor rainy seasons. Sustained improvements in food security are unlikely in most parts of the country due to the poor June to September (Kiremt) rains FEWS NET Ethiopia Addis Ababa Tel: /18 Ethiopia@fews.net FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC info@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

2 which delayed harvests and led to poor prospects for 2009 Meher production. The results of the government led midseason assessment, carried out between the 29 th of September and 11 th of October and covering cropping areas and the pastoral regions of Afar and northern zones of Somali region, indicate that 4.7 million people (6 month beneficiary equivalent) will require food assistance between January and June The bulk of this need will fall in the second quarter of These needs will be further revised following the second government needs assessment that is currently underway. Table 1. Review of October Outlook assumptions and subsequent development Variables and Assumptions Main expected impacts on food security Actual conditions and impacts observed to date Extended kiremt rains (cessation extended beyond normal time) Following the late onset of the rains, the crops that were planted late The rains have ceased earlier than normal in most of the eastern half of the country followed by a long dry leading to good meher harvest in would lead to normal meher harvest spell in September. In SNNPR the kiremt rains the chronically food insecure eastern and southern parts of the country that produce both during the belg and meher seasons and those that produce only during the meher season. which will then lead to increase availability of food for areas that produce both belg and meher crops continued raining beyond the normal cessation time. Most parts of the country received unseasonable rains in October. Though beneficial for pasture and water improvement, the unseasonable rains had a mixed impact on crop production. It will improve moisture availability for late planted short cycle crops but threaten the ready to harvest crops such as teff. Improved availability of food aid (general ration and supplementary food) The performance of the deyr rains in the remainder of the season is expected to be normal and above normal Improvement in the availability and access of food at the household level Improved pasture and water availability and livestock physical condition. Since the beginning of the year, six rounds of food aid have been distributed in Oromia, Afar and Tigray while ongoing in SNNPR, Amhara and Benshangul. With the exception of Somali region and JEOP operational woredas, less food aid than planned has been distributed due to resource limitations. Resources for targeted supplementary food (TFS) are critically in short supply as compared to needs in many parts of the country including Somali region. The rains performed poorly this month after a good start in October. Though there have been some improvements in livestock body conditions as a result of improved water and pasture availability, mainly camels and shoats, milk production is very poor due to previous poor rainfall seasons. Staple prices remain stable Access to food improved Generally cereal prices have shown a declining trend following the seasonal pattern at this time of the years. However, still increasing in regions such as Afar. Food security in the western parts of the country is stable with the exception of Gambella Region, where the poor performance of the 2009 Belg and Kiremt rains have left many of the woredas highly food insecure. The poor rains will also negatively affect fish availability and flood recession agriculture. Food aid distribution is underway, but it is based on needs calculated earlier in the year, when conditions were better, as the revised figures from the mid Meher season assessment are not yet released. Livestock conditions are better however due to improved water and pasture availability. High levels of food insecurity persist in the eastern marginal cropping areas. These areas include southern and southeastern Tigray, North and South Wollo, Wag Hamra, North Shewa, and East and West Hararghe. Field reports indicate that the Kiremt rains started late (one to three weeks on average), ceased earlier than normal, and were insufficient and very irregular for agricultural activities, particularly in the lowland areas of the eastern escarpment bordering Afar region and Tsirare catchments. In Tigray region very poor production is reported in Raya Azebo, Alamata, Hitalo Wajerat, Enderta, Atsebe Wonberta, Saesie Tsaeda Emba, and Tanqua Abergele woredas. In Amhara region, below average harvests are reported in Abergele, Sahala and Ziqualla of Wag Hamra, Kobbo, lowlands of Habru and Gubalafto woredas, Bati woreda of Oromia zone and lowlands of Kewet, Ankober, Minjar, Tarmaber and Bereket of North Shewa zone. The food security situation in these areas has significantly deteriorated due to the absence of a green harvest, a reduced Meher harvest, and declining income and food sources from livestock and agricultural labor. Food aid deliveries have not been adequate; the last distributions to these areas were in August. An increase in cases of acute malnutrition and critical shortages of drinking Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

3 water has been reported in a number of woredas including Ahefrom, Laelay Adiabo and Hintalo Wajerat. Livestock body conditions are reportedly poor due to shortage of water and pasture. In Alamata for instance, more than 1,600 head of cattle from 125 households have migrated to the highlands of Ofla and Lasta since September Reduced livestock holdings are hence highly likely as a result of sale and death which will have a significant impact on future livelihood. An unusual influx of people from Wag Hamra, North and South Wollo, southern and south eastern Tigray to Humera and Metema of Western Tigray and Amhara for in search of labor. Agricultural labor opportunities are high at this time of year in the northwest due sesame, sorghum and cotton harvests on the commercial farms. Some households reported to have searched for labor in neighboring Sudan. Although the demand for labor is usually high in these areas, the wage rate has declined due to increased labor supply and food and accommodations costs are high. Similarly, the vulnerable populations in the lowlands of West Shewa, and East and West Haraghe zones of Oromia region continue to face high levels of food insecurity. Food aid distributions in West Shewa, typically a surplus producing area, began in March 2008 in the 13 out of the 18 woredas. While some of these areas expect some green harvest during November from the long cycle maize planted in June, a reduced harvest is expected this year in many woredas. Harvests of short cycle crops will be late and are anticipated to be very poor. In West Shewa, supplementary food distribution is being carried out for moderately malnourished under 5 children and pregnant and lactating mothers in the 13 affected woredas; 11 are covered by Save the Children US, whose program continues for the coming five months. The woredas with severe food security problems in West Shewa are Adaaberga, Ilfeta, Abuna Gindeberet, Gindeberet, Jeldu, Meta Robi, Midakegn and parts of Ambo Zuria and Tokye Kutaye. Failure of the current Meher crops, compounded by consecutive droughts, has created a critical situation in East and West Hararghe. The physical condition of livestock is improving slightly as a result of improved availability of pasture and browse following unseasonable rains in October and due to increased fodder availability (crop residue from the failed maize and sorghum crops). However, there has been early migration of animals from severely affected woredas to other areas where pasture and water are relatively more available and according to field reports, household asset bases are highly eroded due to the poor rains in The worst affected woredas in East Hararghe include Fedis, Midhega Tolla, Babile, Chinaksen, Gursum, Kurfachele, Meyu Muluke, Golo Oda, Jarso, Meta, Goro Gutu, Kumbi; where as in West Hararghe, Meiso, Chiro, Guba Koricha, Doba, Daro Lebu and Burka Dimtu are equally affected. In the Southern Nations, Nationalities and People s Region (SNNPR) the overall food security situation is improving due to limited harvests of late planted Belg crops and distribution of food aid. October rains were beneficial to late planted shortcycle crops, especially in the highlands, and for the second season sweet potato crops in Wolayta, Gamo Gofa, Kembata, and southern Hadiya zones. However, the limited availability of sweet potato cuttings remains a concern. In addition, those cuttings which are available are expensive and the poor are not able to afford them. FAO and World Vision have distributed cuttings in Kembata to facilitate timely planting. A good coffee harvest is anticipated in the coffee growing areas which will improve labor opportunities which poor households in the region rely on. In the lowlands of Gamo Gofa, Wolayita, Gedio, Derashe, Amaro, Konso, Burji and South Omo zones, late planted crops require the current rains to continue until the first week of December as they are still at vegetative growth stage. A good harvest is unlikely given the progress of the rains so far. Water and pasture availability has improved in many parts of the region, with the exception of a few woredas, such as Boreda and Mirab Abaya of Sidama zone. In the agro pastoral and pastoral areas of South Omo zone, milk availability is very limited following consecutive poor seasons although the rains in October improved the availability of water and pasture except in the chronically water deficient areas. The timely start of the Deyr (October December) rains, increased demand for livestock in Saudi Arabia, and improved food aid distribution, have contributed to slight improvements in food security in Somali region. Prices for sugar and rice have decreased due to a reduction in trade restrictions on goods imported from Somalia to Degahbur zone. However, the closure of the border with Somaliland has resulted in further restriction of commercial trade with Korahe and Warder zones and caused increased food prices and shortages of some basic commodities. Generally, livestock body conditions have improved as a result of improved water and pasture availability, especially camels and shoats. However, milk production is very poor, and this continues to influence high rates of acute malnutrition among children under five in woredas such as West Imey and Dollobay. Water is also still scarce in the chronically water deficient woredas of Geladi and Danot woredas of Warder and Shilabo and Doboweyn woredas of Korahe zones. As a result of slow pastoral recovery and limited alternative income sources, many households who have lost their livestock assets during the recent drought continue to migrate to urban Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

4 centers or to the nearest WFP food distribution points. Planted crops in the agro pastoral areas of Gode, Afder and Liben zones which are normally harvested starting in late December are at early growth stage and their performance will depend on the rains in the remainder of the season. Flash floods along the Wabi Shebele River in Kalafto and Mustahil woredas of Gode zone has caused displacement of people, deaths of animals, crop damages and increased prevalence of malaria and dysentery. The floods have also obstructed food aid transportation down to West Imey, Elkere, Haregelle, Dollobya and Barey woredas. In Afar, four successive below normal seasonal rains, conflict in and around potential grazing areas between Awash and Gawane woredas have crippled the existing traditional coping strategies of pastoralists in the region. As a result, widespread losses of livestock, with high mortality rates for cattle, sheep and camels reported by the Regional Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Bureau in Dulecha, Abaala, Argoba and Burimadaitu woredas, despite the fact that the period following the Karma (July September) rains is typically the best time of year for pastoralists in this region. Stressed livelihoods are being observed across the region as a result of declining household livestock holdings, reduced milk availability, limited demand for livestock due to weak body conditions, and low livestock prices. Hence, the cereal to livestock terms of trade has deteriorated due to poor livestock prices and high cereal prices following low expectations for the Meher harvest in neighboring districts of Amhara, Tigray and Oromia regions. The only available food in local markets is food aid, particularly in areas such as Bidu, Kori, Eli dar, Bure, Chifra, Dulecha, Abaala, Argoba and Burimadaitu woredas according to the recent FEWS NET field report. The overall food security situation in the country remains a concern although temporary improvement in food availability are expected in the Meher cropping areas of the country during October 2009 to January 2010 as a result of the Meher harvest. However, due to poor performance of the Meher crops this year, food security is expected to deteriorate earlier than normal, beginning during the second quarter of Seasonal progress Overall, performance of the kiremt (June September) rains was below normal in many parts of the country (Figure2), including Gambella region, SNNPR, most of eastern Oromia (especially East and West Haraghe zones), eastern parts of Amhara region, eastern and southern Tigray, and Afar region particularly (zone 1,2 and 4), parts of Shinile zone of Somali region and parts of Assosa and Kemashi zone in Benishangul Gumuz. Rains were irregular in most kiremt receiving areas. Delayed onset of between 3 4 weeks and normal to early cessation have been recorded in most parts of the country except northern parts of SNNPR, western parts of Oromia, Amhara, Tigray and parts of Benushangul region which received normal onset and late cessation. Late onset of the Kiremt rains impacted crop planting and the development of long cycle staple crops (Maize and Sorghum) leading to a major shift to low yielding short cycle crops in areas with rainfall irregularities. Figure 2. Percent of normal rainfall, June September 2009 In most parts of eastern and southern Tigray, east and central parts of Oromia, and eastern Amhara regions, which are predominantly Meher producing areas, several re plantings and poor germination and growth of crops are reported due to repeated dry spells. The poor performance of Meher crops, which account for 90 percent of the annual crop production in the country, is of critical concern, affecting both farmer and pastoral income, food sources, and household expenditures. Source: National Metrology Agency of Ethiopia Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

5 Despite the late onset of kiremt rains, it was suggested that if the rains extended beyond their typical end point, that this would benefit crop performance. However, in most areas, this has not occurred. Crops that received good rains during the main growing period tended to benefit more from extended rainfall, while those that grew poorly during the main season experienced some catch up growth but did not reach maturity. Those crops that were in seed setting and ripening stage especially teff, barley and wheat, were damaged or decreased in yield from late rains in these areas. Root crops, such as sweet potatoes, Irish potatoes, carrots, bulbs crops, shallots and crops (which are at vegetative stage) in SNNPR benefited from extended Kiremt rains. Unseasonable rains in October and late November benefited both pastoral and agro pastoral areas of parts of southern Afar region and Northern Somali region that usually do not receive Deyr/Hagaya rains, replenishing water sources, promoting pasture regeneration and improving livestock body conditions. Further improvement in the general livestock body condition and productivity will however depend on the continuation of the unseasonable rains. In southern seven zones of Somali region, lowlands Bale and Borena zones of Oromia region, the situation is slightly improved as a result of Deyr/Hagaya rains (except South Omo of SNNPR). The onset of the rains has been earlier than normal in most parts of Deyr/Hagaya receiving areas, after a long dry season that badly affected pasture and water availability for livestock. Most woredas in these areas are experiencing normal to above normal rains that replenished water sources, regenerated pasture and encouraged agro pastorals to grow crops. However, there are small areas, such as Mayumuluke, Galadin and parts of Danan woredas of Somali region, Miyo, Dire, Arero and Moyale districts of Borena zone of Oromia region and South Omo zone of SNNPR that are reported to have received poor rains so far, which means that there are limited access to water and pasture is getting scarce in those areas. Seasonal flooding of the Shabelle River has been reported in Kelafo and Mustahil woredas of Gode zone. It has affected 81,000 people and displaced 20,000 individuals in Kalafo woreda of Somali region. The flooding damaged 3,800 ha of crop land and killed approximately 9,000 heads of livestock of different kinds in the same areas. Heavy flooding of the Fafan seasonal river valley also affected agro pastoralist families by displacing 500 households in Maraato area that depend on planting sorghum and maize by destroying their traditional underground grain stores and killing 24 cows and 70 shoats. Markets and trade Generally, prices of cereals in different parts of the country have started to decline, following the normal seasonal pattern, with the start of Meher harvest in many parts of the country. However, the nominal retail price of white maize in Addis Ababa, remains stable as compared to last month price. Compared to last year, which was a year of Figure 3. Nominal retail price of white maize in Addis Ababa exceptionally high food prices, this year prices are 16 percent lower. However, compared to the average, it is 65 percent higher (Figure 3). The June to September period is the normal hunger period for most parts of the country and cereal prices are typically highest at this time. This year however, prices have been relatively stable since the beginning of the year. This could be attributed to the large cereal imports by the Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise that discouraged hoarding by big traders, the absence/shortage of loans from banks that local traders normally use to buy cereals in bulk from the market, the absence of local purchase by donors and NGOs for food distribution, the government s price stabilization intervention through importation and distribution of wheat at subsidized prices to most Source: FEWS NET/Ethiopia and Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE). Graphic: FEWS NET/Ethiopia. Notes: (1) Prices in Ethiopian birr per quintal. (2) One quintal = 100 kg; 1 Ethiopian birr 11 US cents. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5

6 urban areas of the country, and continued food aid interventions. According to the Grain Market Price Assessment report of the Delegation of the European Commission to Ethiopia, the imported wheat constituted 32 percent of Ethiopia's wheat production (2, 537,640 MT) or nearly 7 percent of the essential cereals together (Teff, wheat, maize, and sorghum; constituting 12,302,531 MT). During the same time significant tonnages of wheat and sorghum were imported by humanitarian agencies to either replenish stocks loaned from the emergency reserve, or to cover PSNP monthly needs or to respond to emergency situations. Such importations reduced the pressure that the domestic market could have endured otherwise. Although the stability of cereal prices is beneficial for poor and very poor farmers, the pastoralists and agro pastoralists and the urban poor, all of whom spend a high proportion of their income on the purchase of food; prices are stable at much higher level compared to the long term average. Unless this is offset by an increase in income, food security of these group of people will continue to be affected by reduced purchasing power. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6