MALI Food Security Outlook July through December 2009

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1 After four consecutive years of average to good harvests, the nationwide food security situation is still largely good to moderately good. Despite current low levels of milk production, the onset of the rains in May/June suggests that pastoralist households will see an end to the hunger season for their livestock by sometime in July. As far as the food outlook is concerned, the main farming activities right now are land preparation and planting, with households becoming increasingly reliant on local markets for their grain supplies. Figure 1. Current food security assessment for May and June of 2009 A look at conditions during the upcoming hunger season from July through September shows the usual tightening of grain supplies, a growing market demand, and rising prices. Food security conditions in general and, in particular, for poor, market dependent households, are destabilized at this time of year. For more information about FEWS NET s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, click on : Source: FEWS NET Preliminary seasonal climate outlooks issued in May predict normal to slightly below normal rainfall in the central western part of the country and average rainfall in rainfed farming areas. Under the most likely scenario, this pattern of rainfall should mean average crop and pasture production between October and December, creating a reassuring food situation for the Malian population for the fifth consecutive year. Seasonal calendar and timeline of critical events Source: FEWS NET Overviewofthe current foodsecurity situation Favorable trends in meteorological conditions and comparatively stable plant health conditions across the country produced good grain harvests and good livestock raising conditions for the fourth consecutive year, creating a reassuring food situation for the nation s population. Estimated at over 4 million MT, grain production for the 2008/09 crop year is up FEWS NET Mali Tel: mali@fews.net FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC info@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

2 4 percent from last year and 18 percent above the five year average. Grain availability around the country is stable, with household, community, and national grain reserves topped up. At close to 55,000 MT of grain, as of the end of April, the national food security reserve (SNS) and government intervention stocks were at nearly the same level as at the same time last year. Pasturelands are degraded, animal watering conditions are poor, and there is very little milk production for the use of pastoralist households at this time of year. Areas getting meaningful rainfall are seeing the first signs of new vegetative growth, particularly in the southern part of the country. Animal herds are expected to head back to their rainy season grazing lands sometime between June and July. Figure 2. Livelihood zones map of Mali The onset of the rains is triggering the start up of land preparation activities (field clean up and the transporting and spreading of manure) for the 2009/10 growing season for rainfed crops. Return migration by seasonal migrant workers in cities across Mali and in neighboring countries (Senegal, Cote d Ivoire, etc.) to help with the farm work picked up in May and June. Farmers across the Sikasso and Koulikoro regions and the southern reaches of the Kayes region have already started planting crops. Farming activities for off season and flood recession crops in interested farming areas across the country Source: FEWS NET Mali are moving ahead on schedule. In general, crop growth and development is going well and farmers fields are looking good. Rice growing households in the Office du Niger area in Ségou are advised to harvest mature crops, to continue protecting maturing crops, and to use nets to trap grain eating birds. These harvests will help improve food availability for this group of households. A look at plant health conditions shows the presence of populations of grain eating birds in nesting areas of the Ségou region, threatening off season rice crops in the Office du Niger irrigation district. However, conditions are stable as far as other crop pests are concerned. Despite high grain prices, households in all parts of the country still have access to regularly provisioned grain markets. Coarse grain prices are still running above the nominal five year average, but under record 2004/05 nominal prices. As of the end of May, market prices were up slightly, across the board. Most households around the country are not experiencing any major food security problems. Mostlikely scenario forjuly through December2009 This scenario assumes the following shocks: Average to slightly below average rainfall from July through September in agropastoral areas across the central and western reaches of the country based on national and ACMAD (African Center of Meteorological Applications for Development) seasonal rainfall outlooks issued by the May 2009 Forum in Niamey, Niger; Average rainfall from July through September in rainfed farming areas in the southern and eastern parts of the country; Average rainfall in upper Guinea Conakry, suggesting average high water levels for the Niger River; High food prices across the country from July through October, with prices trending upwards between July and September. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

3 If this projected pattern of rainfall holds true, it will produce average farming conditions in the central and western reaches of the country, assuming plant health conditions remain stable. Figure 3. Most likely food security scenario for July through September 2009 The forecast for average to slightly below average rainfall in agropastoral livelihood zone 4 (Figure 2) comes on the heels of four consecutive years of normal rainfall conditions. A small rainfall deficit would not have a major effect on agropastoral production in this area. Households in general and poor households in particular will step up their coping strategies (truck farming, craft making, and small scale trading) slightly between September and December in what should be a generally favorable environment to ensure their food security. The expected average rainfall in the country s farm belt south of this agropastoral zone should produce an average grain harvest, which could slow the normal rise in food prices during the hunger season (July through September). Conditions for engaging in off season farming activities and other income generating activities (craft making, employment as paid labor, etc.) between September and Decemberare also looking good. The hunger season for livestock, which has been underway since March, will end with the definitive onset of the rains and growth of fresh pasture in July. Conditions in livestock raising areas (animal grazing and watering conditions) should be good up until December. Patterns of seasonal migration and other herd movements and the weights of fattened animals and levels of animal production are all expected to be normal. Pastoralist households will command better prices for their animals, which should be adequately fattened. Terms of trade for livestock/grain should also favor pastoralists, particularly if the rise in grain prices is contained. Source: FEWS NET Mali Figure 4. Most likely food security scenario for October through December 2009 Source: FEWS NET Mali Average harvests and livestock raising conditions in both interested areas and in other parts of the country expecting normal to slightly above normal rainfall will encourage farmers to sell off more of their older grain inventories between July and September. There will also be grain available from trader inventories and grain bank stores, which will contain any future rises in what are already high grain prices running well above the nominal five year average, particularly during the hunger season from July through September. Average harvests between October and December will replenish grain market supplies. The seasonal downswing in prices will begin in November, further strengthening the purchasing power of grainconsuming households in general and poor, market dependent households in particular. There will be a normal seasonal upswing in malnutrition rates during the hunger season from July through September, followed by an improvement, beginning in November, as ongoing harvests improve household food availability. The truck farming season at that time of year will also help diversify food intake in general and children s diets in particular. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

4 A look at the household food situation in farming and agropastoral areas across the country between July and September shows the usual hardships associated with the hunger season. These structural problems should not obstruct household food access, even in structurally deficit areas in the northern reaches of the Kayes, Koulikoro, and Ségou regions and the Mopti, Timbuktu, Gao, and Kidal regions. On the contrary, the household food situation should be generally good between October and December, after five consecutive years of average crop and pasture production. Table 1: Events liable to change the most likely scenario Geographic area Potential events liable to change the most likely scenario in this area in the next 6 months Effects on food security conditions Probability of their materialization* Key variables to monitor Agropastoral and pastoral areas in the centralwestern part of the country Possible infestations by crop predators (locusts, grasshoppers, etc.) Well below average rainfall Well above average rainfall Infestations by crop predators Limited crop production and deterioration in livestock raising conditions in the centralwestern part of the country Poor crop production and livestock raising conditions in the central western part of the country Improved, above average crop production and livestock raising conditions in the centralwestern part of the country Limited crop production and deterioration in livestock raising conditions in the eastern part of the country Plant health conditions Cumulative rainfall totals and distribution of rainfall between July and September (RFE, WRSI) Plant health conditions Eastern agropastoral areas Northeastern Kidal region Well below average rainfall Flooding Civil security problems with armed Tuareg bandits Poor crop and pasture production Losses of areas under crops and outbreaks of disease Blocking of supply routes for local residents, possible evacuations to more secure areas, coping strategies and food access jeopardized Somewhat Probability level unknown, timeframe unknown Cumulative rainfall totals and distribution of rainfall between July and September Cumulative rainfall totals and water levels between July and September Local security conditions * Probability levels Description Somewhat Could materialize during the projection period with a slight change in circumstances Could materialize during the projection period only with a major change in circumstances Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

5 ANNEX: Mali Monthly Price Bulletin June 2009 Millet, rice, and sorghum constitute the basic staple foods for the majority of the Malian population. Millet has traditionally been the most widely consumed, but since 2005 rice has become a popular substitute in urban households. Sorghum is generally more important for rural than urban households. Markets included are indicative of local conditions within their respective regions. Ségou is one of the most important markets for both the country and region because it is located in a very large grain production area. Bamako, the capital and largest urban center in the country, functions as an assembly market. It receives cereals from Koulikoro, Ségou, and Sikasso for consumption and also acts as an assembly market for trade with the northern regions of the country (Kayes and Koulikoro) and Mauritania. Markets in the deficit areas of the country (Timbuktu and Gao) receive their supplies of millet and rice from Mopti, Ségou and Sikasso. Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators, local government agencies, market information systems, UN agencies, NGOs, and other network and private sector partners. Famine Early Warning Systems Network i

6 ANNEX: Mali Monthly Price Bulletin June 2009 Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii

7 ANNEX: Mali Monthly Price Bulletin June 2009 Famine Early Warning Systems Network iii