Economics of GMO Technologies

Transcription

1 Economics of GMO Technologies Joe Lauer University of Wisconsin

2 Overview Describe data set used and calculations Ranking of transgenic hybrids to the trial average Yield and grower return of transgenic corn hybrids compared to the: Trial average Normal dent corn hybrid average Sister lines Economics matrix

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4 University of Wisconsin Corn Agronomy Program 22 Spooner Rhinelander White Lake Chippewa Falls Galesville Marshfield Hancock Seymour Valders Fond du Lac Arlington Lancaster Janesville

5 Calculating l Grower Return Grower return = (Yield x Price) - Handling ($.2 per bushel) - Hauling ($.4 per bushel) -Trucking g( ($.11 per bushel) - Drying ($.2 per bushel-point above 15.5%) - Storage ($.2 per 3 day) - Seed ($1 per Acre) for Transgenic corn Marketing plan: 5% sold at harvest, 25% at 4 months, and 25% at 8 months. gr25: Price per bushel = $2.5 Corn price ($/bu) $4. $3.5 $3. Seed price ($/A) PEPS $4 Corn price Seed price $35 $3 Livestock: $. drying, $.1 storage, $. trucking $2.5 $25 On-farm: $.2 drying, $.2 storage Commercial: $.4 drying, $.3 storage grpeps: Weighted Price per bushel = 5% November Average Cash price + 25% March CBOT Futures ($.15 basis) + 25% July CBOT Futures ($.1 basis) November Average Cash price derived from WI Ag Statistics; CBOT Futures prices derived from closing price on first business day in December. $2. $ Year $2 $15

6 Frequency of Specialty Hybrids Yielding Above Average in the 22 WI Hybrid Trials 1 Frequency above trial average Frequenc cy (%) (n=1611) 1999 (n=139) 2 (n=1361) 21 (n=1266) 22 (n=949) Bt (n=42) Bt,LL (n=58) Bt,RR (n=14) IMI (n=7) LL (n=4) RR (n=13) Normal Dent

7 Frequency of Bt Hybrids yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials 1 1 Fre equency (%) (n=12)1997 (n=52)1998 (n=118)1999 (n=323)2 (n=321)21 (n=267)22 (n=42) Average (n=151

8 Frequency of Gene Stack Hybrids Yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials Frequenc cy (%) (n=39) 1999 (n=46) 2 (n=72) 21 (n=74) 22 (n=58) Average (n=289) 1999 (n=12) 2 (n=18) 21 (n=24) 22 (n=14) Average (n=158) Bt,LL Bt,RR

9 Frequency of Bt Hybrid Events yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials 1 11 All Bt Bt-YG 96 (%) quency Freq Average

10 Frequency of IMI Hybrids (IT and IR)Yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials 1 Frequency (% %) (n=3)1993 (n=24) 1994 (n=28) 1995 (n=13) 1996 (n=12) 1997 (n=15) 1998 (n=33) 1999 (n=7) 2 (n=21) 21 (n=12) 22 (n=1) Average (n=24

11 Frequency of Liberty Link Hybrids Yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials 1 86 Frequenc cy (%) Average (n=18) (n=5) (n=12) (n=1) (n=7) (n=4) (n=56)

12 Frequency of Roundup Ready Hybrids Yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials 1 y (%) requenc Fr Average (n=55) (n=42) (n=47) (n=121 (n=13) (n=333)

13 Relative Performance of Specialty Hybrids Compared to the Trial Average (through 22) Specialty Grain Grain GR GR Trait N yield moisture Lodging $2.5 PEPS Bu/A % % $/A $/A Bt Bt-LL Bt-RR IMI LL RR Grower return = (Yield x Corn price) (Drying+Handling+Hauling+Storage+Trucking) GR PEPS = $2.24/bu Drying=$.2/point bu, Handling=$.2/bu; Hauling=$.4/bu; Storage=$.2/bu mo; Trucking $.11/bu

14 Relative Performance of Specialty Hybrids Compared to the Average of Normal Corn (through 22) Specialty Grain Grain GR GR Trait N yield moisture Lodging $2.5 PEPS Bu/A % % $/A $/A Bt Bt-LL Bt-RR IMI LL RR Grower return = (Yield x Corn price) (Drying+Handling+Hauling+Storage+Trucking) GR PEPS = $2.24/bu Drying=$.2/point bu, Handling=$.2/bu; Hauling=$.4/bu; Storage=$.2/bu mo; Trucking $.11/bu

15 Relative Performance of Specialty Hybrids Compared to Normal Sister Lines (through 22) Specialty Grain Grain GR GR Trait N yield moisture Lodging $2.5 PEPS Bu/A % % $/A $/A Bt Bt-LL IMI RR Grower return = (Yield x Corn price) (Drying+Handling+Hauling+Storage+Trucking) GR PEPS = $2.24/bu Drying=$.2/point bu, Handling=$.2/bu; Hauling=$.4/bu; Storage=$.2/bu mo; Trucking $.11/bu

16 Grower return of Bt Hybrids Compared to Normal Dent Corn Hybrids in the WI Corn Trials gr25 grpeps 22 Favors BT Growe er return ($/A) Favors Normal Average 2

17 Breakeven Matrix for Corn Hybrid Seed Sold at Various Technology Fees Technology fee= Technology fee= Technology fee= $1 / bag $2 / bag $3 / bag Yield Corn price ($/Bu) Corn price ($/Bu) Corn price ($/Bu) increase (Bu/A) Assume: 8, seeds/bag planted at 33, seeds/a for final population of 3, plants/a

18 Summary Bt, Bt-LL and Bt-RR corn hybrids yield and return more than the trial and normal dent corn average. At this time IMI, SR, LL, RR, Bt-IMI traits do not add to yield or grower return. IMI, SR, LL, RR, and Bt-IMI corn hybrids should only be recommended for problem fields or difficult management situations. Variation for grain yield exists among commercial Transgenic hybrids sold in Wisconsin. Care must be taken in selecting individual hybrids.