Climate services to agriculture: two examples from New Zealand and Samoa

Transcription

1 Climate services to agriculture: two examples from New Zealand and Samoa Alan Porteous National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, Wellington, NZ Toowoomba, May 2009

2 Climate adaptation for coastal low-land dairy farmers New Zealand Dairy farmers in Bay of Plenty, north-eastern New Zealand Few are committed to mitigation measures, but very committed to adaptation Are receiving confusing messages about climate change (uncertainties are not well described) Are (very) aware of their changing environment (including climate), and are adapting already to what they are experiencing Project conducted with Gavin Kenny, Earthwise Consulting Funded by MAF Sustainable Farming Fund

3 What are the farmers saying? Summers are too dry, spring is too wet, there are more extremes, and when it does rain it s intense and hard to utilise properly. Is it the climate or are we just destroying our soils? My focus is on balance and sustainability and caring for the environment. You live with what you ve got, work within the capacity of the farm. Project conducted with Gavin Kenny, Earthwise Consulting Funded by MAF Sustainable Farming Fund

4 What would you do to be more resilient with climate change? Improve buffering capacity with: Drainage improvements and maintenance Drought proofing e.g. more diverse pasture, irrigation Trees for shade Crops to break pest cycles Changes to grazing and milking regimes Project conducted with Gavin Kenny, Earthwise Consulting Funded by MAF Sustainable Farming Fund

5 What is your plan to mitigate farm methane emissions [and what do you think of the emissions trading scheme?] Bos indicus, bos taurus, bos flarus

6 What would you do to be more resilient with climate change?

7 What would you do to be more resilient with climate change?

8 What would you do to be more resilient with climate change? Daily Dry Matter estimate Re-growth rate Accumulated Residual DM Number of cow-rations Number of cows Number of posts in fence line -Highly responsive system; Includes both logic and intuition; Cost efficient.

9 What changes in your farming system would be needed? Look at organic and biological approaches to improve pasture root depth, soil health and water holding capacity) Efficient machinery better use of energy Diversification Education and support Educate the urban population Upstream catchment management Dialogue with councils to deal constructively with issues and work cooperatively on opportunities Improved climate and weather information is needed.

10 Improved weather and climate information?

11 Improved weather and climate information?

12 Improved weather and climate information?

13 Improved weather and climate information? Farmers feel they have dealt successfully with extremes of weather, such as floods, droughts and ex-tropical cyclones Farmers are already adapting to climate change-longer dry spells, longer growing season, less frosts, increased intrusion of subtropical grasses, changes in disease and pest incidence and pressure; determined to develop greater resilience to climate variability Weather forecasts out to 3-5 days are widely used Seasonal climate forecasts generally not helpful day forecasts are quite popular but are not integrated into production models.

14 Integrated Climate Change Adaptation in Samoa (ICCAS) Output: Weather and Climate Early Warning System (CLEWS) Samoa Knowledge gaps and opportunities indentified by MNRE Observational network needs upgrading and partial automation Data need to be more readily accessible for operational climate work (eg paper records, manual stations, JICA, NOAA) Operational RDBMS needed Existing information systems need to be enhanced to provide improved forecasts and long term climate projections to agriculture and health sectors Impacts of seasonal variability on food and health becoming more apparent Build capacity to address projected effects of climate change on agricultural production and public health Adverse climate change impacts on food security are expected Government of Samoa, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment Funded jointly by GoS and Global Environment Facility/UNDP

15 Integrated Climate Change Adaptation in Samoa (ICCAS) Output: Weather and Climate Early Warning System (CLEWS) Objectives Enhance organisational and technical capabilities of Samoa Met Div: Monitor climate trends Provide climate risk and early warning communications Develop capabilities: Automated data observations, QA, archiving Routine analysis of climate information Scheduled dissemination of climate risk information to Agriculture and Health sectors

16 Outcome information for agricultural (health) risk managers NOAA JICA SMD AWS SMD Agmet SMD manual stations Data sources Cellular network Cellular network Communications and formatting software interface FloSys/Tideda Data entry OGC LAN SMD Weather Services SMD Climate Services SMD Climate Change Office. SMD Disaster Management DMO. Weather forecasts and extreme weather warnings Climate analysis and seasonal forecasts, SCOPIC, ICU GIS analysis and mapping Climate change mitigation planning Disaster rescue and recovery management

17 Outcome information for agricultural (health) risk managers Weather forecasts and extreme weather warnings Climate analysis and seasonal forecasts, SCOPIC, ICU GIS analysis and mapping Climate change mitigation planning Disaster rescue and recovery management Hydrology network Air quality warnings Coastal processes / tide gauge data, sea temps. Water quality Early warning system information interface Heavy rain warnings ENSO advisories Seasonal climate outlooks Tidal surge warnings Scopic, ClimSoft outputs Soil moisture maps Drought monitoring and warnings Agricultural disease weather risks Air quality status and warnings Climate maps and anomaly graphics Tropical cyclone risk Weather health risks Matching crops to climate change water quality health warnings flooding and hydro warnings Public advisories e.g. radio Text messages Web based display and fax Public information e.g. press Energy Coastal flooding [PUMA] Agriculture Health Tourism Ecosystems

18 Outcome information for agricultural (health) risk managers Access to value Stakeholders at every stage of the system Samoa Met Service forecasting and climate services Information systems Ministry Communicators/extension workers Users/public: understand, retain, apply, feedback to a learning loop Understand the limitations of the information: Uncertainties in observations and interpretation How the uncertainties are characterised and communicated Interpretation by users The best outcome for Samoa will require international cooperation NOAA JICA NIWA NZMet BoM