Weather&Wildfire: Winter Fire Weather Webinar. What you should know. What your audience should know. Juan Acuna Tom Spencer Stuart Coombs
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1 Winter Fire Weather Webinar Weather&Wildfire: What you should know. What your audience should know. Dec. 11, a.m. Juan Acuna Tom Spencer Stuart Coombs
2 Winter Fire Weather Webinar: 2016 Winter Fire Weather Outlook AGENDA Introductions Winter fire weather outlook Wildland fire fuels Wildfire prevention Working with Texas A&M Forest Service Live Q&A Organizer: Jessica Jackson, Communications Specialist Texas A&M Forest Service
3 Winter Fire Weather Webinar: 2016 Winter Fire Weather Outlook FEATURED SPEAKERS Juan Acuna Fire Weather Analyst Tom Spencer Predictive Services Department Head Stuart Coombs Wildland Urban Interface Specialist Texas A&M Forest Service
4 Who we are 4 CONSERVE PROTECT LEAD Texas A&M Forest Service State agency under the Texas Legislature conserve forests and natural resources protect lives and property Member of the Texas A&M University System
5 What we do 5 CONSERVE PROTECT LEAD Predictive Services Department We study weather patterns drought cycles wildfire occurrence the status of vegetation statewide To predict when and where dangerous fire conditions may occur
6 Why we do what we do 6 Predictive Services Department CONSERVE PROTECT LEAD We develop daily and seasonal forecasts to assist the state and local governments prevent, prepare for and respond to wildfire.
7 How we do what we do 7 CONSERVE PROTECT LEAD Predictive Services Department Maintain online resources in partnership with the Texas A&M University AgriLife Spatial Sciences Laboratory. Use technology to make information, tools and resources readily-available, easily-accessible and science-based. Use remote-automated weather stations across the state to gather information.
8 Winter Fire Weather Webinar: 2016 Winter Fire Weather Outlook FEATURED SPEAKER Juan Acuna Fire Weather Analyst Texas A&M Forest Service
9 2016 Winter/Spring Weather Outlook ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter , gradually weakening through spring 2016.*
10 El Nino Probability
11 Typical El Nino Winter Effects
12 2010 El Nino
13 Winter Forecast
14 Winter Fire Weather Webinar: 2016 Winter Fire Weather Outlook FEATURED SPEAKER Tom Spencer Predictive Services Department Head Texas A&M Forest Service
15 Winter/Spring 2016 Setting the Stage El Nino influenced weather forecast Above normal precip Below normal temps Above normal grass fuel loading in the plains regions Grass fuels are generally the fuel type of concern during winter/spring fire seasons Fires are usually wind driven
16 Spring & Early Summer Rains Grows Bumper Crop of Grass
17 Hardeman County
18 Taylor County
19 Post Oak and Grass Palo Pinto County
20 Sutton County Hill Top Grasses
21 Edwards County Grasses
22 Dimmit County Grass and Shrub
23 Grass Fires (Heavy Loading) Increased intensities Increased difficulty of control
24
25 Outlook Summary Winter/Spring 2016 With El Nino moisture: Expect fuel dryness to stay below critical levels Green-up to occur on time Fire occurrence with El Nino is usually below normal; but this year could be different Heavy grass fuel loading could increase fire intensities Increased fire size Increased difficulty of control Fires could burn in dry grass on top of wet ground Awareness of grass loading is key safety concern for this winter/spring fire season
26 Winter Fire Weather Webinar: 2016 Winter Fire Weather Outlook FEATURED SPEAKER Stuart Coombs Wildland Urban Interface Specialist Texas A&M Forest Service
27 Being FIREWISE 27
28 28 Home Ignition Zone/ Defensible Space
29 Being Embers Aware 29
30 Please Visit 30
31 Ready, Set, Go Basics 31 Ready: Mitigate long before a fire occurs Set: Situational awareness when fire occurs Go!: Evacuate early READY-Assemble emergency supplies, plan escape routes and make sure the plan is known. SET- Stay aware of the latest news and information on the fire from local media, fire departments and public safety. GO- Follow your personal wildland fire action plan.
32 Fireworks Safety 32 Follow all manufacture s warnings Use outside Obey burn bans and local ordinances Ignite in an area free of vegetation (mineral soil, cement) Keep a hose or fire extinguisher nearby Avoid sending fireworks into others homes and property Adults only
33 Winter Fire Weather Webinar: 2016 Winter Fire Weather Outlook Thank you for attending Resources: Stay in contact Like us on facebook.com/texasforestservice Follow For questions Texas A&M Forest Service
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