Climate Matters: Developing Australia s approach to climate risk management

Transcription

1 Climate Matters: Developing Australia s approach to climate risk management Roger Stone and colleagues. Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries

2 Introduction: Climate impacts vs applying knowledge of climate prediction to modify actions (ahead of impacts), Key steps needed (include participatory approaches with users/researchers), Examples (from the sugar industry), Need for a national co-operative research centre.

3 The climate challenge Enormous year-to-year climate variability We need to be mindful of longerterm climate change

4 Annual SOI Australian annual wheat yield and the SOI Wheat yield Example of direct links between climate variability and key climate driver (annual variation in the SOI) Year Cost of Catastrophe Claims in Australia Events with total cost exceeding AUD40m in 1996 dollar terms n events 1,400 1,200 1, soi summer events av sumr SOI annual Australian wheat yield (N Nicholls) - cost of insurance catastrophe claims in Australia (Stone, 1999) year plotted against the SOI Data: Swiss Re (Stone, 1999).

5 General Challenge: Climate Forecasting has no value unless it changes a management decision Management decisions require management tools that open doors of opportunity to turn climate science into commercial climate risk technologies

6 More succinctly: There is much work on: impacts of climate variability on rural and other sectors Little work on: applying knowledge of climate prediction to modify actions ahead of likely impacts (Hammer et al, 2001).

7 The next (key) steps: provision of scenario analyses, Use simulation with credible systems models, Must be a key aspect of the overall engagement and learning process, Need for interaction among climate and other researchers, systems analysts, and decision-makers ( all the players learn ). (Participatory R&D). Need to better connect agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction, Professions involved in decision-making need to take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts.

8 sing climate information to better manage Proposal for a whole system Delivering benefits across the value chain he Cane Plant Sugarcane Production Harvest & Transport Raw Sugar Milling Marketing & Shipping Best use of scarce/costly water resources Better decisions on farm operations Improved planning for wet weather disruption Best cane supply arrangements - crush start and finish times Better scheduling of mill operations - crop estimates - early season cane supply Better marketing decisions based on likely sugar quality More effective forward selling based on likely crop size Improved efficiency of sugar shipments based on supply pattern during harvest season

9 erbert Case Study Key Decision Points Planting case study When to plant? What variety to plant? Herbicide action Harvesting case study When to start? Which paddocks should be harvested early/late?

10 Irrigation Management When is the optimum time to apply limited irrigations? Location: Bundaberg generate longterm daily rad, tmax, tmin APSIM Simulation Experiment crop simulation package used to determine optimum timing (scenario analyses) initial irrigation of 24mm four irrigations of 44 mm two soil types Does the timing of the first irrigation vary with SOI phase?

11 Participative R&D in action. Tully Consultative Group Sugar/climate project (Courtesy Yvette Everingham, JCU)

12 Grower's Decision Darren Reinaudo 22 April 2002 imate in transitional stage so I keep a watchful eye on the climate updates ake special interest in the sea surface temperatures (SST) particularly in the Nino 3 region. ere is currently some indications of warming in the Nino 3 region which hints at a possible El Nino pattern developing plant would be kept to a minimum rvest drier areas earlier, even if CCS maybe effected. e don t run the farm based solely on climate forecasts, it s just another tool to consider when making decisions.

13 Grower's Action Jeff Cantamessa Proposal for "Climate-forecasting information was used during the 2000 planting season when climate forecasts predicted a high probability of high rain. By unconventionally planting 50ha on a ridge instead of a traditional furrow, Cantamessa was able to establish a crop on that country for the first time in three years. Saved $80,000 by not having to replant. In the 2001 planting season the climate forecast said there was a probability it would be dry, so we planted into a furrow to conserve soil moisture"

14 Yet, most businesses (rural and other) do not have management structures that incorporate climate variability and climate change in their risk management systems

15 Program 1 Enhancing climate science & predictive systems Program 2 Climate risk technologies for rural industries Program 3 Climate risk technologies for resource and environmental industries Program 4 Climate risk technologies for service industries Program 5 Building human and institutional capacity & resilience Commercialisation, marketing & business systems Need to enhance this capacity nationally Programs needed to deliver the R&D output that have been define by users

16 THE SCOPE Weather Climate change b bb Drought periods b bb Climate Science b b Agriculture b bb Rural b bb Policy Informing b bb Technology Informing b bb Commercial benefit b bb Climate bbb Climate variability bbb Non-drought periods bbb Applications bbb Environment bbb Urban bb Policy development Technology development bbb Public benefit b

17 Defining climate risk technologies Climate risk services: short term consultancies Climate risk products: saleable decision systems/tools Climate risk practices: actionable discoveries developed through co-learning with end users (participative research) Climate risk training: fee paying short courses Climate risk knowledge: Journal articles, policy informing papers, briefings, 38 PhD theses Different technologies require different strategies for delivery/ adoption pathways

18 Need Outcomes Against National Research Priorities Strengthen Australia s economic & social fabric Responding to climate variability Water A critical resource Overcoming soil loss, salinity and acidification Breakthrough science

19 Our Vision Australian businesses and communities better managing the risks and opportunities of a highly variable climate Our Mission To increase the wealth and well-being of Australian businesses and communities by turning climate science into applied risk technologies

20 Conclusion: Huge impact of climate variability and climate change (but), Need for climate R&D to connect to the key decision-points in management/business, Need for more user-driven commercial involvement, Need for close interaction between climate and other researchers, Need for a more synergistic umbrella among players/participants, Participatory R&D paramount, Need for a strong commercial focus,

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22 Thank you

23 oard 8 10 Members Chair CEO (ex officio) 6 Independent (skills based knowledge, commercial, business, legal) 2 Partners (research investors) Governance Structure Incorporated Company, Limited by Guarantee Advisory Committee Commercialisation & Marketing Committee Education & Communication Committee Finance & Management Committee Research Committee Chaired by 1 of Partner Board Members Representatives of all Core Partners 2 Board Members 2 Board Members Chair 2 Board Members Chair CEO 2 Board Members

24 ustomers Competitors General Targeted General Targeted Shareholders Reinsurers APRA Information Axis Information Axis Irrigation Fertilisation fallow practice land prep planting weed manag. pest manag. Improved Planning for wet weather disruption season start and finish Crop size forecast CCS, fibre levels Civil works schedule Land & Crop size Water Forecast Resource Early Season Management Supply Environmenta Supply Patterns l Management -Shipping -Global Supply Water allocation Planning and policy associated with exceptional Events C l i m a t e Scale Information Farm Harvest, Transport, Mill Catchment t Marketing Policy

25 Regional Commodity Forecasting System Rainfall up to date and Climate Forecast Proposal for he Model - Simple water balance simulates ter STRESS... Run-off & Deep drainage Evaporation Compare to reference yield expectation Crop Outlook Wheat outlook for the 1999 season VIC WA AUS Spatial Statistics NSW QLD SA Month %Pred 50%Pred 90%Pred ABARE 10%NoP 90%NoP LTmed Soil Depth Crop available Soil water Simple Agro- climatic model Drought Probability Geographical Information System

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28 Practices = CRC Program = Climate risk technology Public Knowledge P2,3, 4 Industry programs Public engagement Industry engagement Business systems Commercial ventures = IP management plan strategy Products Services Training P1 Climate Science P5 Resilience CRC for CRT Business Plan Concept

29 Currently disparate activity in many agencie

30 Board Management Structure Chief Executive Commercialisation, Marketing and Business Systems Program Evaluation Committee Business Consultancy Unit Program 1 Program 2 Program 3 Program 4 Program 5 nhancing limate science nd predictive ystems Climate risk technologies for rural industries Climate risk technologies for resource and environmental industries Climate risk technologies for service industries Building human and institutional capacity & resilience

31 Budget Summary Investment Amount (AUD $ 1,000) Cash In-kind CRC Program Grant Total Resources for CRC* 10,000 7,100 25,000 76,720 * includes 309 FTE contributions

32 Core partners DPI&F (Qld) Suncorp Metway Ltd. AWB Ltd. Energy Australia CSIRO (SE, L&W) ACTEW AGL SA Consortium (SARDI, DWLB, Univ Adelaide) Griffith Univ Bureau of Meteorology WA Consortium (WA Ag, Curtin Univ, Murdoch Univ, Univ WA) NSW Consortium (NSW DPI, Univ Sydney) Univ. of Southern Qld. Meat and Livestock Australia

33 Strong Supporting Murray Darling Basin Commission Australian Bush Heritage University of Qld MCVP NRM&E (Project basis) ABARE (Project development) Vic DPI (TBA) Referees UN WMO Commission for Agricultural Meteorology Rabobank Harvard University (JFK School of Management) National Farmers Federation

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