Climate Change Reducing Agriculture and Forestry Vulnerability Dr Jim Salinger, NIWA, Auckland

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1 Climate Change Redcing Agricltre and Forestry Vlnerability Dr Jim Salinger, NIWA, Ackland Climate Past present and ftre Climate impacts on agricltre Climate forecasting Management practices International workshop Conclsions

2 Climate Past, present and ftre Global temperatres have increased by abot 0.6 C over the 20th centry Very likely that the 1990s was the warmest decade, 1998 the warmest year

3 Climate past, present and ftre New analyses of proxy data for the Northern Hemisphere indicate that the increase in temperatre in the 20th centry is likely to have been the largest of any centry dring the past 1000 years From IPCC, 2001 It is likely the Northern Hemisphere that the 1990s was the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year

4 Climate past, present and ftre

5 Climate past, present and ftre Global average temperatre and sea level are projected to rise nder all IPCC SRES scenarios Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 From IPCC,2001

6 A 3-5 year climate cycle of global importance driven ot of the Pacific Basin Climate Variability The El Niño/Sothern Oscillation Year-to-year variability between El Niño and La Niña

7 Climate Variability ENSO Impacts

8 Climate extremes Global average water vapor concentration and precipitation are projected to increase, with larger year to year variations very likely. More hot days and fewer frost days are very likely More heavy rainfall events are likely over many areas Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities are likely over some areas

9 Climate Impacts on Agricltre A general redction in potential crop yields in most tropical and sbtropical regions with increases in temperatre. Arid and semi-arid tropics has low and variable rainfall A redction, in potential crop yields in most mid-latitde regions Increases in some mid-latitde regions for smaller temperatre increases A potential increase in global timber spply from some managed forests

10 Climate Impacts on Agricltre Ranges of % changes in crop yields spanning varios scenarios Each pair of reslts shows with and withot adaptation

11 Climate Forecasting Based on slow variations, mostly oceanic Seasonal time scale Large spatial scales Climate somewhat chaotic a limit to predictability statistical/probabilistic predictions History often a fair gide

12 Climate Forecasting Observations ENSO State Climate patterns ENSO forecasts Backgrond Climatology ENSO Climatology Expert Assessment Global forecasts Analoge selection Forecasts Regional, seasonal & rain (WWW) MSLP, R forecasts Tailored prodcts

13 Climate Forecasting - Benefits Extremes constrain land se Information on average climate alone is inadeqate Extremes likely to change with Global Warming Growth in climate forecasting to assist with seasonal extremes

14 Climate Forecasting - Applications Farm level - when to plant sorghm when the SOI is consistently deeply negative Which variety of wheat to plant sing climate forecasts of the risk of late frosts.

15 Climate Forecasting Simlate management scenarios sing analoge years Evalate otcomes/risks relevant to decisions Agricltral Prodction Systems Simlator (APSIM) simlates yield of crops and pastres key soil processes (water, N, carbon) srface reside dynamics & erosion range of management options crop rotations + fallowing short or long term effects

16 Climate Forecasting Indstry Bsiness and Resorce Managers Government Information Axis Information Axis General General Targeted Targeted Irrigation Fertilisation fallow practice land prep planting weed manag. pest manag. Improved Planning for wet weather disrption season start and finish Crop size forecast CCS, fibre levels Civil works schedle Land & Water Crop size Water Resorce Forecast allocatio Management Early Season n Environmental Spply Excepti Management Spply Patterns onal -Shipping Events -Global Spply Farm S e a s o n a l C l i m a t e F o r e c a s t s Harvest, Transport, Mill Catchment Marketing Policy

17 Traditional Management Practices Natral Mlches Moderates soil temperatre and extremes Less evaporations occrs conserving soil moistre Less erosion Spresses diseases and harmfl pests

18 Traditional Management Practices Intercropping Provides some shading and better water tilization

19 Traditional Management Practices Shade Cropping and Agroforestry Modifies wind, water availability etc.

20 Edcation Compter Aided Learning Crop-Climate Matching Crop growth/development models and indices Internet Technologies Risk assessment climate forecasting

21 Research Commence climate adaptation research Understand climate impacts on agricltre Model climate change impacts on agricltre Improve spatial measrement of crops

22 International Workshop Knowledge on climate variability and change Impacts of present and ftre variability on agricltre and forestry Impacts of global warming on agricltre and forestry Adaptation strategies sed in the 20 th centry Seasonal to interannal climate forecasting Use of traditional methods for redcing vlnerability Use of new technologies for redcing vlnerability Research, training and edcation

23 Implications - Hazards Natral Hazards - Heavy Rain and Droght Changes in rainfall intensity and extremes need to consider flood protection, sewerage and storm water systems Sea level rise impacts on lower flood plains For droght need to manage stocking and rral fire protection

24 Implications - Agricltre Agricltre Climate proofing of activities, especially pastoral farming to accont for extremes from seasonal predictions Planning new activities as the climate shifts and warms

25 Implications - Crops Crops Extremely sensitive to variability and change Shifts in crops ranges Manage between good and adverse seasons Plan new activities as climate shifts and changes

26 Conclsions Redcing Vlnerability: Whatever we do, climate change is inevitable dring the 21st centry The rate of climate change will be rapid Integrating preparedness for increasing climate UK Met Office Climate Model variability and change