The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report

Transcription

1 Climate change, food and biodiversity after the fifth assessment report of IPCC Humans are changing the climate It is extremely likely that we are the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th century Jean-François Soussana LA AR5, WGII, IPCC INRA, Paris Year Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperatures AR5 WGI SPM Coriolis Conference Feb. 11, 2015 The IPCC Fifth Assesment Report Three Working Group Reports of the 5 th Assessment, WG I : WGII: The Physical Science Basis Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability WG III: Mitigation of Climate Change Synthesis report Global Warming Potential on a 100 yrs time horizon (relative to CO 2 on a molecular weight basis): CO 2 : 1 CH 4 : 25 N 2 O: 298 AR5 SYR SPM 1

2 GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades Antropogenic forcings are extremelylikely the cause of warming AR5 WGIII SPM Sources of emissions Potential Impacts of Climate Change Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions Agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) is the second sector Food and water shortages Increaseddisplacement of people 35% Energy Sector 24% 21% 14% Agriculture, forests and other land uses Industry Transport 6.4% Building Sector Increased poverty Coastal flooding 2010 GHG emissions AR5 WGIII SPM AR5 WGII SPM 2

3 The Choices We Make Will Create Different Outcomes Widespread forest decline caused by climate change With substantial mitigation Without additional mitigation Change in average surface temperature ( to ) AR5 WGI SPM WIDESPREAD OBSERVED IMPACTS A CHANGING WORLD Observed impacts on crop yields (% per decade) 3

4 Food security issues Prevalence Global hunger of index obesity 1300 million obese people worldwide State of Food Insecurity in the World 2012 FAO, WFP, IFAD (WHO, 2012) 870 million people suffered from chronic undernourishment between TSBF, 2007 Food prices & social unrest (Lagi et al., 2011) Climate impacts on world food prices A decade of climate extremes in continental Europe Year Region Meteorological Characteristics Agriculture, Fisheries, Forestry, Bioenergy 2003 Western and Central Europe Hottest summer in at least 500 years Crop harvest losses of 20-30%; Mega-fires; Health damage (35,000 death) 2004/ 2005 Iberian Peninsula - Portugal Hydrological drought Grain harvest losses of 40% 2007 Southern Europe Hottest summer on record in Greece since 1891 Mega-fires. Approx. 575,500 hectares burnt area 2007 England and Wales May July wettest since records began in farms flooded. Impacts on agriculture 50 million 2010 Western Russia Hottest summer since 1500 Reduction in crop yields. Export ban. Mega-Fires: Fire damage to forests; health damage France Hottest and driest spring in France since % decline in wheat yield 4

5 A contrasted future depending on global GHG emissions RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASE WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS Species migration vs. climate change velocity IMPACTS CLIMATE Natural Variability Vulnerability SOCIOECONOMIC PROCESSES Socioeconomic Pathways Anthropogenic Climate Change Hazards RISK Adaptation and Mitigation Actions Exposure Governance EMISSIONS and Land-use Change (IPCC, 2014) 5

6 Corals would be the first biome to disapear (IPCC, 2014) % change in net irrigation requirements of 11 major crops ( to ) Areas currently equipped for irrigation, assuming current management practices. Major impacts on crop yields by the end of the century Increased frequencyof heatwavesin Europe by the end of the century Number of summer heat waves (>5 days) compared to Heat waves are defined as periods of more than 5 consecutive days with daily maximum temperature exceeding the mean maximum temperature of the May to September season of the control period ( ) by at least 5 C compared to Mean of 8 and 9 regional climate models, Eurocordex ///// Significant (P<0.05) \\\\\ Robust (>2 models out of 3).. Dans un scénario à +4 C, sans adaptation, des risques sérieux pour la sécurité alimentaire mondiale (Jacob et al., 2013; Eurocordex) 6

7 /02/2015 Increased frequencyof heavyprecipitation in Europe by the end of the century Climate change impacts on ecosystem services by the 2050 s without adaptation Heavy precipitation change (%) in heavy precipitation defined as the 95th percentile of daily precipitation (only days with precipitation > 1mm/day are considered) compared to for winter (DJF). Mean of 8 and 9 regional climate models, Eurocordex ///// Significant (P<0.05) \\\\\ Robust (>2 models out of 3) RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Ecosystem services Number of studies Northern Impact Provisioning Regulating Cultural Number of studies Atlantic Impact Number of studies Alpine Number of studies Continental Impact Impact Number of studies Southern Impact (Jacob et al., 2013; Eurocordex) Increased frequency of droughts by the end of the century Annual duration of droughts Projected changes in the 95th percentile of the length of dry spells for the period compared to (in days). Dry spells are defined as periods of at least 5 consecutive days with daily precipitation below 1mm. Projected climatechange impacts on wheatyieldsin Europe by compared to Mean of 8 and 9 regional climate models, Eurocordex ///// Significant (P<0.05) \\\\\ Robust (>2 models out of 3) (JRC, 2012) ECHAM5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 HADCM3 (Jacob et al., 2013; Eurocordex) Without adaptation With adaptation 7

8 Increased forest fires Limiting Temperature Increase to 2 C Measures exist to achieve the substantial emissions reductions required to limit likely warming to 2 C(40-70% reduction in GHGs globally by 2050 and near zero GHGs in 2100) A combination of adaptation and substantial, sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can limit climate change risks Implementing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions poses substantial technological, economic, social, and institutional challenges But delaying mitigation will substantially increase the challenges associated with limiting warming to 2 C AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM,AR5 WGIII SPM (IPCC, 2014) Key risks for Europe Mitigation Measures More efficient use of energy Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy Many of these technologies exist today Improved carbon sinks Reduced deforestation and improved forest management and planting of new forests Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage Lifestyle and behavioural changes AR5 WGIII SPM 8

9 Ambitious Mitigation Is Affordable The agriculture, forestry and land use sector Towards a biobased economy Economic growth reduced by ~ 0.06% (BAU growth 1.6-3%) This translates into delayed and not forgone growth Estimated cost does not account for the benefits of reduced climate change Unmitigated climate change would create increasing risks to economic growth AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM (Billions tons of dry-matter) (IPCC, 2014) The window for action is rapidly closing Greenhouse gas fluxes in agriculture and forestry 65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2 C goal already used Total Carbon Budget: 2900 GtCO2 Amount Used : 1900 GtCO2 Amount Remaining: 1000 GtCO2 AR5 WGI SPM 9

10 Soilscontainthreetimes more carbon than the atmosphere Emissions intensity of AFOLU products is falling as agriculture and forestry become more efficient (UNEP, FAO, JRC 2010) Note that ruminant meat has a GHG intensity much higher thanother agricultural products But also note that these are direct emissions only. If we include the emissions from the human-edible feed for mono-gastric animal products, they move closer to ruminant meat IPCC WGIII AR5 Agricultural emissions are increasing, but net forestry CO 2 emissions have fallen recently AFOLU accounts for 24% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions AFOLU is the only sector where net emissions fell in the most recent decade Whilst agricultural non-co 2 GHG emissions increased, net CO 2 emissions fell, mainly due to decreasing deforestation, and increased afforestation rates IPCC WGIII AR5 What is the potential of the mitigation options for reducing GHG emissions in the AFOLU Sector? Global economic mitigation potentials in agriculture in 2050 are estimated to be GtCO 2 eq/yr. (current global emissions reach 49 GtCO 2 eq/yr) Reducing food losses & waste: GHG emission savings of GtCO 2 eq/yr. Changes in diet: GHG emission savings of GtCO 2 eq/yr. Forestry mimgamon opmons are esmmated to contribute GtCO 2 /yr. IPCC WGIII AR5 10

11 11/02/2015 AFOLU mitigation options: AFOLU and sustainable development SUPPLY SIDE Livestock mgmt. Cropland mgmt. Int. systems Income Forestry Biodiversity Ecosystem services Livelihoods and equity Food and water security and bioenergy DEMAND SIDE Dietary change Improvement in the food chain Use of wood products Bioenergy: Global Technical Bioenergy Potential for 2050 AR5 AFOLU Summary Findings: 20-24% of anthropogenic GHG emissions come from the AFOLU sector (ca GtCO2e/yr); crop and livestock agriculture is now the dominant source of AFOLU emissions A combination of supply-side and demand side options can reduce up to 80% the emissions from the sector by Assessment of overall potential, including bioenergy, needs to include analysis of trade-offs and feedbacks with land-use competition Many positive linkages with sustainable development and with adaptation exist, but are case- and site specific as they depend on scale, scope, and pace of implementation. Good governance is central for reducing mitigation barriers in this sector and ensure multiple co-benefits for rural development and food security are achieved 11

12 Socio-economic drivers: SSPs SSP2: Middle of the Road Current Trends Continue General - medium economic growth overall - slow convergence between LIC and HIC - inequality remains high -population growth moderate high in some LICs - reducing resource intensity (slower than SSP1) - reducing fossil fuel dependency (slower than SSP1) - uneven planned urbanization in LIC -world economy fragmented reduced flows of trade and technologies -rapid technological change in HIC but not shared with LIC Agriculture - trade barriers in agricultural markets remain (IPCC, WGIII, 2014) (IPCC, WGIII, 2014) SSP1: Sustainability General - rapid development of Low Income Countries (LIC) - reduction of inequality among and within economies - low population growth - reducing resource intensity - reducing fossil fuel dependency - increased planned urbanization in LIC and MIC - opened globalized economy -countries cooperate to achieve development and environmental goals - rapid technological change and technology transfer - standards of living converge Agriculture - high land productivity - rapid tech change yield increasing technologies - rel. low level of animal products consumption (IPCC, WGIII, 2014) SSP3: Fragmentation General - slow development with high inequalities - pockets of extreme poverty - high population growth - unplanned settlements growing in LIC -low investments in R&D - slow technological change - little progress in reducing resource intensity - weak governance and institutions - de-globalization reduced intl trade flows - little international cooperation Agriculture (IPCC, WGIII, 2014) 12

13 World population Crop yield development Sustainability Middle of the road Fragmentation Inequality Conventional development Sustainability Middle of the road Fragmentation Inequality Conventional dev. (IPCC, WGIII, 2014) Crop yield developments projected as a function of GDP per capita. (Havlik et al., in prep.) World GDP per capita Feed conversion efficiencies Sustainability Middle of the road Fragmentation Inequality Conventional development [kg protein product / kg protein feed] + additional assumptions on the speed of switches between livestock production systems (IPCC, WGIII, 2014) (Havlik et al., in prep.) 13

14 Human diet preferences [kcal/cap/day] Agricultural losses and food wastes SSP1. Sustainability SSP2. Middle of the road SSP3. Fragmentation SSP1. Sustainability SSP2. Middle of the road SSP3. Fragmentation 53 (Havlik et al., in prep.) 55 (Havlik et al., in prep.) Animal calorie consumption in 2050 [kcal/cap/day] Net forest area change [Mio Ha] SSP1. Sustainability SSP2. Middle of the road SSP3. Fragmentation SSP1. Sustainability SSP2. Middle of the road SSP3. Fragmentation 54 (Havlik et al., in prep.) 56 (Havlik et al., in prep.) 14

15 Additional irrigation water consumption compared to 2000 [%] SSP1. Sustainability SSP2. Middle of the road SSP3. Fragmentation Thank you for your attention! 57 (Havlik et al., in prep.) Two international science conferences in 2015, ahead of COP21 in Paris. Third Global Science Conference on «Climate-Smart Agriculture», Montpellier, March 16-18, «Our commonfuture underclimatechange», Paris, UNESCO, July 07-10,