Minutes of the workshop

Transcription

1 Minutes of the workshop Seville, 16 th 17 th April 2009 Dr. José Luis Gómez-Barroso UNED - Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia

2 :: Index Scenarios Discussion of questionnaire results. Key findings Technology Market User s perspective Policy issues Enablers, opportunities and challenges SWOT analysis SWOT table Other strengths mentioned Other weaknesses mentioned Other opportunities mentioned Feasible policies Disruptive trends 2

3 Scenarios Ensemble of scenarios did cover an ample space. Scenario fit the purpose.but could have been improved Some of them need adjustments to become more realistic, like hint to business model, social acceptance (e.g. recipe), some concepts outdated (e.g. more push than pull, repeating the failures of information brokers); Many scenarios too much desktop-based; not mobile-centric enough; Major disruptive technologies for mass consumer adoptions not enough taken into account; Entertainment scenario missing Scenarios shall be classified by the value and demand they provide to citizens 3

4 Key findings (I). Technology Mobile search is not a technical problem, though interoperability is a main challenge Pure mobile search applications: timetable, get me home Mobile search coexist with popular dual usages pc/mobile, but it is not a seamless experience across media 4

5 Key findings (II). Market Importance of ownership of context-data There is room for being a new Google on mobile A virtuous circle of mobile search and long-tail applications Relevance of the gate-keeper role (payment/billing, navigation/screen, application development, identity/profile management). Who is going to manage the personal users data? The role of mobile operators and device suppliers as enablers, not necessarily in the driving seat Limited role for innovators if they have to commoditize to an incumbent platform No consensus on the scalability of advertising as a main business model in the mobile search domain 5

6 Key findings (III). User s perspective Push vs pull is shifted towards a blended model in the mobile search context, e.g. remote control of the city Users demand for full information, not necessarily the reduced mobile summary Users demand for value, integration (applications, platforms, services): disruptive mobile-centric concepts seem not have appeared yet. Social mobile search for bonding while social search for bridging Who do you give access to in the case of personal mobile data? Mobile search offer opportunities to explore user consent and a granular concept of privacy 6

7 Key findings (IV). Policy issues Policy influences sharing the information ( who gives information to whom? ) Policy asymmetry between mobile carriers and application providers Relevant role of industry self-regulation and ethics, success linked to who has the best customers relationships 7

8 Key findings (V). Enablers, opportunities and challenges Enablers: reducing charges for data roaming, better fixed tariff or complete abolishing smartphones flat-rate (or at least low enough) Innovation related with a more open ecosystem Opportunities: mobiles only access to Internet for developing/less-developed countries mobile is a replacement market for Internet search empower the user / user in control / granular privacy control Challenges: data portability right to change platform, cost of switching relevance of cultural differences and multilingualism 8

9 Strengths Weaknesses SWOT analysis Technological puzzle pieces in place Good research standards Content of higher quality for mobile use (geo, cadastre, ) Industrial landscape strong Public funded broadcasting Fragmentation (roaming, regulation, cultural) Need for better / understandable / more secure pricing models Roaming charges Strategic decisions on innovation and investments are outside EU Venture capital / Entrepreneurship Lack of interoperability and (open) standards Opportunities Improving integration between web/mobile/pc platform for a richer user experience Niche markets/services Local content (multicultural) New regulatory framework needed for API s, privacy, Data portability Liberation of public data Disruptions (cloud computing) 9 Threats Lack of technology development Fragmented market (silos, platforms) Privacy issues, data protection Companies outside EU will control the developments in mobile search Asymmetry of regulation Regulatory lag (spectrum management)

10 SWOT analysis other strengths mentioned Strengths: Wide range of available technology, new technology options Swiss army knife of communication Technological puzzle pieces in place Strong position of some mobile vendors and operators Tradition of R&D in mobile series Good quality & stability of mobile systems Good research standards Multicultural & -lingual environment Strong mobile industry, good connections User adoption rate of mobile devices is very high Mobile broadband is a reality in Europe Mobile ecosystem & players ready and operating Lots of good content for mobile use Internal market provides a coherent information space High ICT adoption High income levels 10

11 SWOT analysis other strengths mentioned (II) Strengths: High income levels High media & ICT literacy New devices with touch interfaces. Early adopters. Research experience in context awareness. Better data tariffs and wireless infrastructure. Young people use new mobile services extensively, and have strong virtual community feelings.. Open platforms for developers. Local content Accessibility Vodafone scale Nokia market share Strong gov t support Sizable subscriber base 11

12 SWOT analysis other weaknesses mentioned Weaknesses: Lack of critical mass in search players/technologies Fragmented telecom space GPS (?) mostly dominated by global companies Fragmentation (language, culture/behavior, data charges, carriers, services, ) We do not have a developed internal market Roaming fees Venture capital ecosystem Innovation/marketing Need for better / understandable / more secure pricing models Roaming charges Lack of consideration of user value Seamless user experience Management of personal data, regulation Weak support for start-up companies Different cultural perceptions of privacy/identity Big players in web search are outside EU Lack of perceived value from mass markets Lack of usable services highly adapted to the particularities of each device Lack of penetration of advanced devices 12

13 SWOT analysis other weaknesses mentioned (II) Weaknesses: Some of the technologies are not reaching the market (e.g. NFC) Interconnection / interoperability Misinformation about mobile costs Not a real internal market (roaming, etc.) High ICT adoption (also a strength) equals little consumer need in mobile search Low usability of devices & services PSI-regime for content (for mobile) still weak Linguistically fragmented market -> search quality Legislative framework for mobile needs to be examined Lack of smartphone adoption for mass market Context aware technologies not fully developed Closed markets for technology and business development Market development slower than US/Asia VC funding, entrepreneurship Asymmetrical regulation operators search providers Weak innovation track record of mobile operators Lack of interoperability Unclear business models Social-technological imbalance 13

14 SWOT analysis other opportunities mentioned Opportunities: Improving integration between web/mobile/pc platform for a richer user experience Exploitation of context and action related search, including time dimension Expand person to community search New markets, usage cases, participants, business models (not only advertising) Niche markets/services Operation API s for 3 rd party access to operator resources New regulatory framework needed for API s, privacy, EU tradition in vertical services could be expanded to mobile Due to fragmentation, testing different price/ user adaptation reactions Testing search in multicultural situations Collaboration with emerging markets Standardisation of search interfaces Open technologies, platforms and services Social networking, context aware and search combination Internet of things and augmented reality Lead in openness (networks, applications, devices) Open spectrum for innovative uses 14

15 Feasible policies ++ Feasibility Importance 1. Raise user-awareness 2. Create tools for user privacy/manage ID 3. Support innovators/entrepreneurs 4. Reform regulatory framework 5. Promote local user-centric env. (liv labs) 6. Develop public services (emergency, ) 7. Research programmes Promote self-regulation 9. No policy support needed 10. Promote standards/interoperability 11. Develop accessibility of content 12. Support EU champion 13. Public procurement 14. Promote EU internal market

16 Disruptive trends Disruptive trends Importance Time frame 1. LTE 2. Cognitive technologies 3. Artificial intelligence 4. Internet of things 5. New user interfaces 6. Location awareness of presence 7. Semantic structured knowledge 8. Cloud computing 9. Augmented reality 3D 10. P2P 11. Mesh networks 1. Location awareness of presence 2. Cloud computing 3. LTE 4. Cognitive technologies 5. Semantic structured knowledge 6. Artificial intelligence 7. New user interfaces 8. Internet of things 9. Mesh networks 10. Augmented reality 3D 11. P2P 16