JAN Nova Scotia Power: Converging on Prognostics

Transcription

1 JAN Nova Scotia Power: Converging on Prognostics

2 Emera Newfoundland & Labrador Where We Operate Emera New Brunswick Emera Maine HALIFAX Nova Scotia Power Emera Energy New Mexico Gas Grand Bahama Power DOMLEC Tampa Electric/ Peoples Gas LUCELEC Barbados Light & Power 2

3 NSPI Generation

4 Nova Scotia s Renewable Energy Transformation 25% Renewable Energy by % Renewable Energy by 2020 Peak demand : 2100 MW Low load: 625 MW Wind Generation: >600 MW Biomass 1% Wind 1% Hydro 7% forecast Imports 3% Biomass 3% Hydro 9% Imports 3% Hydro 22% Imports 5% NG/Oil 13% Coal 76% Wind 10% Coal 60% Coal 45% NG/Oil 15% Biomass 7% Wind 18% NG/Oil 3% 4

5 Asset Management: Strategic Drivers Changing Unit Utilization Planned Unit Retirement Demographics: Growing Knowledge Gap Due Diligence Growing Transparency Requirement Performance 5

6 Generating Fleet: Asset Management SAM Asset Planning Invest Planning Outage Planning Health Assessment Risk Calculation Information Management Reporting Dashboards & KPIs Real Time Risk Asset Programs Fleet Monitoring Advanced Technology Anomaly Detection Operational Advisory Health Indicators Mobile Technology Automatic Advisories Reliability Programs Reliability Teams Maintenance Strategy PdM/RBI Continuous Improvement RCA Critical Spares Recommendation Management Performance NERC QP Work Management Equipment Database WO Standards Weekly Planning Work Measures Outage Execution Materials Management Operations Logs Operator Rounds CBT/Procedures 6

7 Criticality Asset Management Mechanism: Capital Replacement Refurbish Risk Profile Highest Risk Mitigating Measures Critical Spares M&D 5 Re-Design Operating Guides 4 3 Update 2 Ops Surveillance Condition Inform Maint. Strategy PMs PdP PdM/NDT Health Assessments

8 Maintenance Strategy: Prescribed and Optimization More effective Less Effective PDP Predictive Pattern Recognition Surveillance Ops Rounds Maint Inspections Performance Testing HAs PdMs Vibration UE IR MCM Oil Analysis PMs Time Based Cycle Based Condition Based 8

9 9 Evolution of Equipment Information Systems

10 Maintenance Strategy: Leveraging Technology Advance More effective Less Effective PDP Predictive Pattern Recognition Surveillance Ops Rounds Maint Inspections Performance Testing HAs PdMs Vibration UE IR MCM Oil Analysis PMs Time Based Cycle Based Condition Based 10

11 Maintenance Strategy: Evolution More effective Less Effective PDP Predictive Pattern Prognostics Recognition Surveillance Ops Rounds Maint Inspections Performance Testing HAs PdMs VA UE IR MCM OA PMs Time Based Cycle Based Cond. 11

12 12 Prognostics Requirement: Integration and Synthesis

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14 14 Operating: Health Calculations (Prognostics?)

15 15 Operating Risk Calculation (Prognostics?)

16 16 Enabling Prognostics

17 Value Discussion Risk Determination Decision Making: Short Term Maintenance Investment Outages Retirement Planning Maintenance Strategy Operating Guides Diligence Measurement/Reporting Management Performance 17

18 AHI(Asset Health Indicators)

19 19 Management Support: KPIs & Dashboards:

20 20 Management Score Cards

21 Risk Profile: Simple Asset Class V Motor Risk profile Risk Profile Target for Mitigation

22 Risk Profile: Complex Asset Class TUC2: Primary Issues Rating HP: HP blade cracking, SPE, FOD, and creep damage HP: HP rotor bore cracking HP: HP nozzle box cracking, FOD, and SPE HP: HP rotor peripheral cracking HP rotor dovetail cracking HP: Rotor bow (HP, IP, DFLP rotors) IP: IP blade cracking, SPE, FOD, and creep damage IP: IP rotor bore cracking IP: IP rotor peripheral cracking DFLP: Blade water droplet erosion and FOD DFLP: Stationary blade cracking, SPE, and FOD damage DFLP: LP blade and lacing wire, ferrule, or strut cracking DFLP: L-0, L-1, and L-2 blade steeple cracking DFLP: Disc cracking DFLP: DFLP L-0 blade stall flutter GEN: Stator winding GEN: Rotor winding GEN: Excitation system SYS: Unit vibration and balancing SYS: Pedestals and controls 1-STOP: Stop valve maintenance and valve body and steam chest cracking

23 Strategic Planning: 20 yr Investment Projections $60,000,000 $50,000,000 $40,000,000 $30,000,000 Annual Investment by Asset Class Turbine Routine Other LMs I&E Generator FW Fuel Systems Env&Emiss CW CTs Boiler $20,000,000 $10,000,000 $0 $60,000, Annual Investment by Unit $50,000, $40,000, $30,000, $20,000, $10,000, TUC6 TUC3 TUC2 TUC1 TUC0 TRN6 TRN5 TRN0 POT2 POT POA LMs LIN4 LIN3 LIN2 LIN1 LIN0 CTs Biomass $

24 NSP Asset Management: Questions??? Comprehensive methodology Design: NSPI operational expertise ISO (PAS-55) Industry reliability orgs and experts Industry relationships Key features: Holistic Highly integrated processes Data integration and synthesis Fleet deployment Proactive programs and technology Engagement 24

25 25 Questions?