Ben Wilson, Ahmed El Gebaly, Regine Schuler, Paul Marc Schot, Matt Ferguson

Transcription

1 Advances in the Collection and Analysis of Large Volumes of Information on the nuclear fuel cycle from disparate sources as a verification tool Ben Wilson, Ahmed El Gebaly, Regine Schuler, Paul Marc Schot, Matt Ferguson International Atomic Energy Agency, Department of Safeguards Symposium on International Safeguards Linking Strategy, Implementation and People October 2014, IAEA HQ Vienna

2 SOURCES ACTIVITIES WHAT OBEJCTIVE Generic Objectives Clandestine Misuse Diversion A B C Undeclared Activity Undeclared Activity Undeclared Activity Undeclared Material Undeclared Material Declared Material Undeclared Facility Declared Facility Declared Facility Information analysis Field activities Field activities Complementary Access DIV DIV Other applicable measures Information analysis NM accountancy OS Info incl. Trade, Industry State Info State Info Partner State Info OPS Info OPS Info OS Info incl. Trade, Ind. OPS Info

3 Need for Information IAEA seeks to provide credible assurance that States are fulfilling their SG obligations. States declarations are verified for correctness and completeness. To achieve this end: declarations are analyzed, in-field activities are planned and performed, SG relevant information collected, Analysis of all information undertaken.

4 Need to diversify information Increase the Department s ability to detect undeclared material and activities. Ensure coverage of all available relevant information. Increase the accuracy of relevant information Information collected from diverse sources Ensure the objectivity and independence of analysis and conclusions.

5 Multiple & Diverse Information Sources

6 Available data sources IAEA sought diverse source types. Identified several sources per information type. Studied the data format per source. Designed procedures to help analyst deal with these different sources. Identified ways and methods to handle information from these sources.

7 IAEA State Information on the State of interest, received from their partner States. Partner State Results of the SGOPs in-fields activities SGOPs Materials and technical equipment provided to Member States through TC Projects. Reports of the travel trips of IAEA professionals to facilities in Member States. Collected by other departments of the IAEA through their activities. OPEN SOURCES Data Sources TC Travel Report Cross Dep. Information received through the State either through declarations or using other channels. Publications originating from scientific organizations on the progress of their research activities R&D Publications originating from scientific or industrial organizations on the progress of their commercial related research activities. Patent Companies directories describing their production capabilities. Ind. Cap. These are data derived from the official national customs declarations of exported goods. EXIM Other OS Any open source does not fall under any of the other categories. Categorization Analysis Mining Conversion Enrichment Fuel Fabrication Reactor Reprocessing etc

8 Challenges faced Sources for each information type per State Data categorization Data sets sizes Structuring information Information management and collation

9 Data Categorization The Physical Model is used to achieve this end Data categorization Allows analyst to collate data from different sources and types and enables the utilization of advanced analytical methods.

10 Data Size Data sets sizes Due to the advances in collection, data sizes are increasing rapidly every day.

11 Structuring Information Structuring information Property matches To enable advanced and new methods of analysis (names, addresses, s) structuring data is essential. 11

12 Information Management and Collations Information management and collation Allows analysts to handle large data sets, provides a platform to deploy advanced analytical methods, establishes an environment for information collation from different sources.

13 Future development Continuously enhancing the information management and analysis platform. Covering more HS code for EXIM data analysis. Enhancing data collection for industrial capabilities surveys. Developing a capability to identify, collect and analyze open source transaction data.

14 Future development Enhancing data collection for uncategorized open sources. Developing a capability to structure flat text data sources. Enhancing the capability to categorize all data and information available to the IAEA.

15 Conclusions Diversifying sources is essential to timely detection of undeclared use of nuclear materials and activities. Several source types are identified and in use. IAEA continuously seeking better information coverage. IAEA seeking continued assurance of objectively and reliability of declarations evaluation.