Opportunities with Concrete Pavements

Transcription

1 Opportunities with Concrete Pavements Stewardship, Cost Effectiveness and Innovation North Carolina Concrete Pavement Conference Durham, North Carolina November 17 th, 2016 Leif G. Wathne, P.E. American Concrete Pavement Association

2 North Carolina Transportation by the Numbers Miles of Public Road? Source: USDOT BTS Vehicle Miles? How far is 105B miles?

3 North Carolina Transportation by the Numbers <4cents/VMT Source: NCDOT Source: USDOT BTS

4 Challenge Lots of movement of people and goods System is saturated Massive economic impacts Growth is predicated on efficient movement Huge funding gap (not financing ) What is Concrete Pavement s role?

5 Relates to COMPETITION! Probably the single-most overlooked aspect of getting the most from our pavement investment! Including concrete can spur competition! This provides VALUE to the agency/owner Agencies benefit from presence of both pavement types! About extending the purchasing power of the highway dollar

6 Why is competition good? Lower Prices Spurs Innovation Improves Quality Lowers Risk

7 Competition Lowers Material Prices Not about concrete pavement being better Agencies benefit from having more than one alternative No engineering reasons why concrete pavement cannot be part of an agency s program We know this from WI, IA, CA, TX, FAA, DOD etc. Smooth, fast, cost effective, etc. Competition is foundational to the American way of doing business

8 COMPETITION BETWEEN PAVEMENT INDUSTRIES ASSURES THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL LEVEL OF COMPETITION Contractor Competition Limits competition at the supplier level, which can limits effectiveness Paving Project First Level Asphalt Contractors Contractor 1 Contractor 2 Contractor 3 Contractor 4 etc 2nd Level Asphalt Material Suppliers Industry Competition Assures Competition happens between contractors and suppliers Paving Project Asphalt Contractors Contractor 1 Contractor 2 Contractor 3 Contractor 4 etc Concrete Contractors Contractor 1 Contractor 2 Contractor 3 etc Asphalt Material Suppliers Concrete/Cement Material Suppliers Multiple contractors does not assure competition takes place at all levels of the supply chain

9 Competition Spurs Innovation Forces innovation and technology development Makes both products better and the public benefits Concrete pavement advancements come from places with healthy competition e.g. slipform, stringless, twolift, concrete overlays, NGCS, fabric interlayer.

10 Competition Improves Quality Healthy competing industries can afford to invest in Training Education Quality Control Investing in workforce lowers risk and reduces costs Competence and quality benefit agencies

11 Of course, this is nothing new Early years of US Federal Aid Program Public instances of fraud, abuse, collusion Congress and public lost confidence in administration of program (largest ever - $27B) Investigations (FBI, GAO, Blatnik) BPR AASHO compelled to develop guidelines to restore confidence in program

12 The Role of Competition 1960 AASHO Guide on Project Procedures Includes Pavement Type Selection

13 1960 AASHO Guide Covers a lot of information aim to assure the public of full value for their highway dollar. Established process based on transparency, and sound engineering while leveraging benefits of free market dynamic through healthy and spirited competition (includes host of factors) Despite advancements in design and modeling, authors warn that PTS process only meaningful in presence of competition between industries.

14 1960 AASHO Guide In section on cost comparisons (LCCA): doubt as to the validity [of such analysis] arises in the case where on[e] type of pavement has been given monopoly status by the long-term exclusion of a competitive type. I.e., the cost-data is not meaningful desirable that monopoly situations be avoided Highway officials recognized the benefits of establishing competing industries.

15 So What s the Problem? Competition is often not recognized or considered appropriately by decision makers today Agencies are NOT adequately capitalizing on the benefits of competition between paving industries

16 Competitive Paving Program? 2013 Industry Market Analysis % 80-90% 70+80% <70% From 2013, 5-year rolling average balance of DOT pavement type, based on Oman Systems bid tabulations.

17 Competitive Paving Program 2013 weighted unit asphalt bid price vs. five-year average balance of DOT pavement type usage Source: OMAN, Bid Tabs Software Public Data. ACPA analysis of current bid tabs confirm benefits > Increasing Competition >

18 Competitive Paving Program Source: OMAN, Bid Tabs Software Public Data. ACPA analysis of current bid tabs confirm benefits > Increasing Competition >

19 Theory of Competition Threshold & Price Impact MIT Perception of threat Source: Porter, M. E. (1980). Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors. New York: Free Press.

20 MIT - University study of impacts of competition MIT performed a comprehensive multivariate analysis of DOT bid pricing data 10 years of data, 298,000 pay items, 164,000 jobs, 47 state DOTs increasing competition between paving material industries lower paving costs for both asphalt and concrete jobs. This is likely to result in significant savings for DOT s and taxpayers.

21 The Role of Competition Diversification & Risk

22 In Brief Competitive two-pavement system lowers prices, spurs innovation, improves quality, and can enhance network performance Supported by guidance, gut and bid data... Allows agencies to build more pavements (~15% more) for same investment, and manage assets more cost efficiently Yet, here we are

23 What can you do right now? 1. Signal that you are committing to a program of concrete pavement projects - industry will respond! 2. Address concrete pavement first-cost Optimize pavement designs use MEPDG to incorporate features that are cost effective (i.e. performance benefits outweigh lifecycle costs) Develop project-specific solutions there is more than one way to meet performance requirements. Examples: Widened lane, free-draining base

24 Example: Granular Subbases Lower volume state routes only KS OK Predominate Use Source: 2016 survey of ACPA Chapters Up to 2000 trucks/day Interstate rest areas, lower volume state routes only Lower volume state routes KS Less than 9M ESALS; otherwise CTB OK Used in combination with CTB & Fabrics

25 2. Optimization Opportunities for Concrete Each Design Feature Needs Need to Balance Performance and Cost Feature Use 13-ft Widened Outside Lanes Shorten Joint Spacing Change Shoulder Design Optimized aggregate gradation Change base type Use single 1/8 -wide single saw cut and filled (not sealed) Use Longitudinal tining Change Subgrade Stabilization Benefit or Options Shifts loading to interior loading (reduces thickness) Reduces curling & warping stresses (reduces thickness but does increase joint sawing and dowel costs) Concrete vs AC vs RCC; reduced /tapered thickness; no dowels; different mix, etc. Reduces cement content and creates denser mix Granular vs asphalt treated vs cement treated ; reduce thickness,: Dense graded vs permeable; use fabrics/geotextiles Removes second sawing operation and reduces noise Reduces noise none vs lime vs lime/cement vs cement vs cement/fa, etc

26 What can you do right now? (continued) 3. Diversify your concrete solutions portfolio across applications Benefit from competition in more than the reconstruction or new construction market. Also applies to treatments on asphalt and composite pavements. Reduces long term risk Example: Concrete Overlays overlays.acpa.org

27 Example: Recent Example of Concrete Overlay State Highway 13 North of the city of Craig, CO SH 13 Existing Condition before overlay Bid December 2015 as AD/AB Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) Alternative 2-in SX(75) PG (surface AC) over 4-in of SX(75) PG (Base AC) over 8-in of FDR Initial Const = $5,385, Rehab & Maint = $2,456,560 Users Cost = $596,170 Total Life Cycle Cost = $8,438, Concrete Alternative 6-in Unbonded Concrete Overlay on Asphalt Initial Const = $5,338, Rehab & Maint = $1,674,060 Users Costs = $718,490 Total Life Cycle Cost = $7,730, Concrete overlay was $47k lower in Initial cost & $708k Lower in Life Cycle Costs

28 USE OF CONCRETE OVERLAYS IS GROWING! Indicates that concrete overlays are cost effective and performing well Source: ACPA market Data On a National basis, concrete overlay are 16 to 17% of all concrete pavements placed

29 3. Diversify solutions across applications Category Preservation Treatments applicable to existing Concrete Pavements Preventive maintenance Corrective maintenance Minor Rehabilitation Major Rehabilitation Reconstruction Treatment Techniques Materl. Used Perform Period* Crack/joint sealing AC 5-10 Partial / full-depth repair and Slab replacement PCC 5-15 Concrete patch using asphalt AC 1-3 Joint LTE restoration Diamond grinding & grooving Open gradation friction course AC 5-10 Thin asphalt overlay (2-4") AC 5-15 Bonded concrete overlay (2-4") PCC Thin concrete overlay (4-8") PCC RCC overlay (4-8 ) RCC Asphalt overlay (4-8") AC 5-20 Asphalt overlay (>8") AC Concrete overlay (8-12") PCC RCC overlay (>8 ) RCC New asphalt AC New concrete PCC New Roller Compacted Concrete RCC

30 3. Diversify solutions across applications Category Preservation Preventive maintenance Corrective maintenance Minor Rehabilitation Major Rehabilitation Reconstruction Treatments applicable to existing Asphalt & Composite Pavements Treatment Techniques Materl. Perform Used Period* Seals (chip/fog/slurry/micro-) AC 1-5 Asphalt Rejuvenation AC 1-5 Asphalt Patching/Pothole filling AC 1-5 Asphalt cold/hot in place recycling AC 5-10 Open gradation friction course AC 5-10 Full Depth Reclamation w/ cement AC Mill / Thin Asphalt overlay (2-4") AC 5-15 Thin asphalt overlay (2-4") AC 8-15 Ultrathin concrete overlay (2-4") PCC 8-15 Thin concrete overlay (4-8") PCC RCC overlay (4-8 ) RCC Asphalt overlay (4-8") AC 5-20 Asphalt overlay (>8") AC Concrete overlay (8-12") PCC RCC overlay (>8 ) RCC New asphalt AC New concrete PCC New Roller Compacted Concrete RCC

31 Opportunity with Concrete Pavements With COMPETITION between paving industries come opportunities to enhance stewardship through: Cost savings Innovation Quality Performance Enabling NCDOT to better address the transportation needs and the impending funding gap.

32 Thank You! apps.acpa.org ACPA Application Library cal.acpa.org ACPA-affiliated Chapter resources.acpa.org Resource Center wikipave.org ACPA s paving wiki

33 MIT CSH - Concrete job model predictors Statistical analysis results for concrete initial prices WHAT MATTERS? PRICE SIGNIFICANCE Volume of concrete on job 5-year rolling average: Spending on bids per state-year 5-year rolling average: Share of spending on concrete Mass of asphalt also on job Concrete percent of bid Count of bidders on jobs $$$ $$$ $$ $-$$ $ $

34 MIT CSH - Asphalt job model predictors Statistical analysis results for asphalt initial prices WHAT MATTERS? PRICE SIGNIFICANCE 5-year rolling average: Spending on bids per state-year 5-year rolling average: Mass of asphalt per state-year Count of bidders on jobs Mass of asphalt on job Share of spending on concrete per state-year Asphalt percent of bid Instability of Share of spending on concrete per state-year Volume of concrete also on job $$$ $$$ $$-$$$ $$-$$$ $$-$$$ $$ $$ $$

35 Competitive Paving Program Same data viewed through a break-even analysis MORE PAVEMENT FOR SAME INVESTMENT!

36 The Role of Competiton No US state spends more than 40% of paving dollar on concrete on average MAJORITY of US states spend less than 15% of paving dollars on concrete pavement on average Several US states spend no money on concrete pavement all asphalt (no diversification high exposure) As competition increases between industries, unit costs drop for both, regardless of PTS process CONFIRMS what officials recognized 58 years ago