Predictive Models Based on Force Main Condition Assessment

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Nancy Moore
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Overview Let s focus on some general concepts: TSX: PUR global innovative sustainable infrastructure management solutions Predictive Models Based on Force Main

data analysis is critical Allow condition, risk, and cost to drive long-term decisions Re-evaluate risk 2015 Pure Technologies US 1 2 Force main failures cost up to

social challenges. Water Research Foundation Report Age is not the primary factor so what is?

Diameter Pressure Rated for 150 PSI Ductile Iron, Cast Iron, and PCCP make-up over 70% of the US force main inventory Let s look at these a little further Year Material

1 Overview Let s focus on some general concepts: TSX: PUR global innovative sustainable infrastructure management solutions Predictive Models Based on Force Main Condition Assessment Understand failure modes Use risk to drive data collection Collect the right data to make good decisions Know the operations of the pipe Proper data analysis is critical Allow condition, risk, and cost to drive long-term decisions Re-evaluate risk 2015 Pure Technologies US 1 2 Force main failures cost up to US$1.7 million per failure Force main condition assessment challenging due to: Lack of redundancy and access points Costs Technology limitations Environmental and social challenges. Water Research Foundation Report Age is not the primary factor so what is? Material quality and manufacturing Design Environmental Operational 3 rd party damage Installation Failures are often a combination of several factors inch Diameter Pressure Rated for 150 PSI Ductile Iron, Cast Iron, and PCCP make-up over 70% of the US force main inventory Let s look at these a little further Year Material Wall Thickness (Inches) 1908 CI - pit CI spun (gray iron) CI spun (gray iron) DI DI (Pressure Class) DI 0.38 Data source: Water Environment Research Foundation Guidelines for the Inspection of Force Mains (2010) 5 6 1

0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.

1992 7 Data source: Water Environment Research Foundation 8

to Successfully Manage Your Sewer System Understand Understand-

are the highest risk Assess- Condition Assessment Use technologies to

Operational Analysis Comprehensive analysis of the condition of

pipeline renewal Provide sustainable, long-term solutions Pipeline

failure for each asset: Developing a risk analysis using maintenance

analysis 9 10 Risk Based Condition Assessment Assess Budgets Cannot

Serviceable Condition Condition Assessment Followed by Surgical

2 5.0% 4.5% Percent of PCCP Pipe Sections with Distress Ferrous Non-Ferrous 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Pre Post Data source: Water Environment Research Foundation 8 Guidelines for the Inspection of Force Mains (2010) Taking the Steps to Successfully Manage Your Sewer System Understand Understand- Pipeline Risk Prioritization Helps owners understand which pipelines are the highest risk Assess- Condition Assessment Use technologies to identify areas of concern for pipeline owners Address- Structural and Operational Analysis Comprehensive analysis of the condition of pipelines Manage- Managing your System Informed recommendations for pipeline renewal Provide sustainable, long-term solutions Pipeline Risk Prioritization Identifies the consequence and likelihood of failure for each asset: Developing a risk analysis using maintenance and failure history An evaluation of existing condition data GIS analysis 9 10 Risk Based Condition Assessment Assess Budgets Cannot Support Wholesale Replacement 120 Most of the Buried Pipe is in Serviceable Condition Condition Assessment Followed by Surgical Renewal Strategies Can Reduce Costs by Over 80% Risk of Failures is Significantly Reduced Likelihood of Failure Score Consequence of Failure Score

Pure Technologies SmartBall SmartBall Leak and Gas Pocket Detection

locating very small leaks and gas pockets with very high accuracy

with increased levels of stress by detecting anomalies resulting from

PipeDiver Condition Assessment Identifies broken wires in PCCP pipes

Study Screening Survey vs Direct Assessment Desktop studies do not

Over 70% of gas pockets located in the field are NOT at known high

3 Pure Technologies SmartBall SmartBall Leak and Gas Pocket Detection Instrument-filled aluminum alloy core capable of detecting and locating very small leaks and gas pockets with very high accuracy SmartBall Pipe Wall Assessment (Metallic Only) Detects pipe sections with increased levels of stress by detecting anomalies resulting from changes in the selfgenerated magnetic field. PipeDiver Condition Assessment Identifies broken wires in PCCP pipes and areas of corrosion in metallic pipes Field Data vs Desktop Study Screening Survey vs Direct Assessment Desktop studies do not always reflect actual field conditions. Over 70% of gas pockets located in the field are NOT at known high point Low Resolution vs High Resolution Engineering Analysis Remaining Useful Life Number of Occurrences Simulated Year of Failure

Structural Modeling Transient Pressure Monitoring 19 20

highly dependent on stress amplitude and mean stress Moser s

8 Pipe thickness (inch) t 0.362 0.503 0.

050 9.050 DR DR 25 18 14 Min Pressure (psi) Min_P -6.0-6.

8 29.8 Stress Amplitude (psi) σ-amp 208 152 120 Average

identify appropriate localized renewal strategies to extend

assets will reduce short term capital needs as well as

4 Structural Modeling Transient Pressure Monitoring Fatigue Analysis Life-cycle Analysis Fatigue failure is highly dependent on stress amplitude and mean stress Moser s Method, 8-inch Force Main Pipe Nominal Diameter (inch) D Pipe thickness (inch) t Pipe Outside Diameter (inch) OD DR DR Min Pressure (psi) Min_P Max Pressure (psi) Max_P Stress Amplitude (psi) σ-amp Average (mean) Stress (psi) σ- mean Number of Cycles to failure C Use condition data to manage risk as well as identify appropriate localized renewal strategies to extend the life of pipeline assets Extending the life of pipeline assets will reduce short term capital needs as well as reduce overall magnitude of expenditures Life-cycle Analysis Address Non-Structural Point Repairs Coating Anodes Lining Structural Lining HDD Pipe Bursting Others

5 Manage Return on Investment Optimization Engine Operational Planning Decision Support CMMS Capital Planning PureNet Asset Management Platform Customer Information & Billing Risk NRW Cost benefit of pipeline management approach must be compared with replacement costs over full life-cycle Typical 25 year net present value of Assess & Address strategies are 10% to 20% of capital replacement costs Data Integrity Re-evaluation of Risk PWA Case Study: St Louis MSD 120 Phase I Risk Analysis Likelihood of Failure Score Phase II Phase III Phase IV Technology Selection Infrastructure Development NDT - SmartBall PWA Data Analysis & Risk Modeling Test Pitting RUL Consequence of Failure Score Phase V Re-Evaluate Risk Renewal & Re-Inspection Planning PWA Case Study: St Louis MSD PWA Case Study: St Louis MSD SmartBall PWA Phase III Caulks A Phase IV Test Pitting & RUL

Summary 500 miles of force main condition assessment data has told us a few things Manage force mains by understanding

operations Proper data analysis is critical Allow condition, risk, and cost to drive long-term decisions Strategies

force main condition assessment data indicates that selective rehabilitation is a cost effective way to extend the

Relief Force Main Sayreville Relief Force Main Sayreville Relief Force Main 102-inch PCCP Designed and manufactured by

19, 1983 First Failure March 2, 2003 Failure Result of a surge in the pipeline following a power outage Sayreville

of the pipeline environment Visual and sounding Electromagnetics Acoustic monitoring Structural modeling External

6 Summary 500 miles of force main condition assessment data has told us a few things Manage force mains by understanding the failure modes Use risk based assessment techniques Decision making should be driven by the right data Understand operations Proper data analysis is critical Allow condition, risk, and cost to drive long-term decisions Strategies should reduce risk of failure Sayreville Relief Force Main: 10 Years of Monitoring and Proactive Management 500 miles of force main condition assessment data indicates that selective rehabilitation is a cost effective way to extend the useful life while also reducing the likelihood of failure for force mains Pure Technologies US 32 Sayreville Relief Force Main Sayreville Relief Force Main Sayreville Relief Force Main 102-inch PCCP Designed and manufactured by Interpace in Sayreville Relief 2003 Sayreville Force March Main 1982 Failure Force main began operating March 19, 1983 First Failure March 2, 2003 Failure Result of a surge in the pipeline following a power outage Sayreville Relief Force Main Inspections 10 years of investigative measures In the Beginning Currently Material testing Evaluation of the pipeline environment Visual and sounding Electromagnetics Acoustic monitoring Structural modeling External repairs Visual and sounding Electromagnetics Acoustic monitoring Structural modeling Sonic/ultrasonic testing External and internal repairs

Electromagnetic Inspections Visual and Sounding Inspections Electromagnetic Inspections Detect discontinuities in the

Visual and Sounding Inspections Techniques refined in the early 1990s Detects pipes in a state of incipient failure 37 38

cable installed along the entire pipeline Records wire wrap breaks in real time E-mail updates provided Results provided

) 984 non-steel pipes 25 pipes with anomalies representing 20 or more broken wraps after 1 st EM inspection 23 repairs; 1

2003 Replacement 0-33 May 2004 Post-Tension 2-5 May 2004 Post-Tension 2-4 June 2004 Post-Tension 2-3 July 2004

2013 Post-Tension 0-31 October 2013 Post-Tension 1-13 October 2013 Post-Tension 1-27 October 2013 Post-Tension 0-16

Post-Tension 13-20 May 2015 Post-Tension 5-24 June 2015 Post-Tension 21-7 July 2015 Post-Tension 10-36 July 2015 CFRP

Repairs Structural Modeling - Now Three-dimensional, nonlinear finite element modeling Each component of the PCCP is

7 Electromagnetic Inspections Visual and Sounding Inspections Electromagnetic Inspections Detect discontinuities in the prestressing wire Since 2003, there have been changes in tool configuration and analysis techniques. Visual and Sounding Inspections Techniques refined in the early 1990s Detects pipes in a state of incipient failure Acoustic Fiber Optic Monitoring Sayreville Relief Force Main Results Acoustic Monitoring - Now Acoustic fiber optic (AFO) cable installed along the entire pipeline Records wire wrap breaks in real time updates provided Results provided on website Pipes in the Force Main 1,016 pipes (includes steel, specials, etc.) 984 non-steel pipes 25 pipes with anomalies representing 20 or more broken wraps after 1 st EM inspection 23 repairs; 1 replacement since 2003 Station to Station * March 1983 Replacement Station to Station 86+97* March 2003 Replacement 0-33 May 2004 Post-Tension 2-5 May 2004 Post-Tension 2-4 June 2004 Post-Tension 2-3 July 2004 Post-Tension 9-44 November 2006 Post-Tension 1-33 October 2007 Post-Tension July 2010 Post-Tension September 2013 Post-Tension 0-31 October 2013 Post-Tension 1-13 October 2013 Post-Tension 1-27 October 2013 Post-Tension 0-16 November 2013 Post-Tension 9-25 March 2014 Post-Tension September 2014 Post-Tension September 2014 Post-Tension May 2015 Post-Tension 5-24 June 2015 Post-Tension 21-7 July 2015 Post-Tension July 2015 CFRP July 2015 CFRP July 2015 CFRP July 2015 CFRP July 2015 CFRP Structural Modeling External Repairs Structural Modeling - Now Three-dimensional, nonlinear finite element modeling Each component of the PCCP is modeled Determines when visible cracking occurs and when metallic components yield External Repairs Seven-strand post tensioning tendons wrapped around the pipe Holds the core in compression Final repair is encased in concrete

8 Internal Repairs Internal Repairs Carbon fiber reinforced composite layers are applied to the inside surface of the pipeline Carries all of the loads applied to the pipe 43 8

Using Condition Assessment to more Efficiently Manage your Pipelines

Using Condition Assessment to more Efficiently Manage your Pipelines Traditional Management Approach Prioritize Pipelines Replace Pipelines Traditionally, prioritizations were based on age, material and