Carbon Inventory Poten.al in California s Na.onal Forests California Rapid Assessment

Transcription

1 Carbon Inventory Poten.al in California s Na.onal Forests California Rapid Assessment Na.onal Forests Climate Change Workshop January 28, 2010 Bruce F. Goines Ecosystem Services Group Leader Pacific Southwest Region

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3 Where it all fits Ecosystem Management Water Ameni.es Ecosystem Services Forests Carbon Sequestra.on Climate Mi.ga.on Biodiversity Hazardous Fuels Reduc.on/ Bioenergy Afforesta.on/ Reforesta.on Conserva.on Improved Forest Management Urban Forestry

4 Overview Background/Context for the Rapid Assessment Purpose and Deliverables Methods Outcomes Lessons Learned Closing thoughts for the work ahead

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6 Why did we conduct the analysis (What were we thinking?) Convergence of drivers: Chiefs commitment to Forest GHG Reduc.ons CA Assembly Bill 32 Global Warming Solu.ons Table developing Forestry Carbon Protocols for Climate Ac.on Registry $64K? What role Public Forest Lands in GHG Reduc.ons?

7 Expressed in Terms of CO 2 Equivalent (CO 2 e) Source: March 2006 CAT Report, adapted from CEC, 2005 Source: California Energy Commission 2005

8 Potential Reductions of Greenhouse Gasses (187.2MMTCO 2 e) by 2020 Source: March 2006 CAT Report Source: California Climate Ac.on Team 2006

9 California Rapid Assessment Deliverables Determine the capability of CA Na.onal Forests to sequester carbon under a range of management scenarios Quick Assessment Using readily available data Costs/poten.al market value Impacts on ecosystem services Develop Public Forest Lands Carbon Accoun.ng Protocols Baseline Addi.onality Leakage Permanence

10 R5 Project TEAM Bruce Goines Team lead State and Private Forestry Mark Nechodom Team lead PSW Research Sta4on Klaus Barber Regional Analyst, Strategic Decision Support Chris Fisher FACTS, R5 RO Nancy Mulligan Silviculture, Mendocino NF Scoj Conway Fire and Fuels, Tahoe NF Brad Burmark Regional Planner/Economist Karen Jones Ecosystem Management, Tahoe NF Martha Maciel RF s Office of Communica4on Mike Landram Regional Silviculturist Gary Thompson Regional Fire &Avia4on Management Tony Tooke WO Liaison

11 Challenges Defining the Baseline Scenario Defining Management Footprint Predic.ng Growth and Disturbance Veg and Disturbance Data Challenges Defining Management Costs Modeling Impacts on Ecosystem Services

12 Baseline/BAU Management Footprint Database Challenges

13 Disturbance from Wildfire (reference in report on web)

14 Fire Severity in Region 5 (reference in report on web)

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17 R5 Capabili*es = Addi*onal 65,000 acres/year

18 R5 Capabili*es = Addi*onal 30,000 acres/year Commercial Thinning

19 Management Scenarios R5 Assessment What scenarios speak to contemporary resource and program management issues? Business as Usual Business as Usual + Reforesta.on Exis.ng LMPS as wrijen and amended Maximum Forest Resiliency Minimum Canopy Disturbance Reflected management ac.vi.es under current discussion Theore.cal scenarios to Bound the Discussion

20 Results: Business As Usual* *Includes above ground live biomass, wood products, bioenergy

21 Business as Usual Carbon Pools Bioenergy Use Above Ground Live Biomass Harvested Wood Products

22 Results Maximum Forest Resilience* *Includes above ground live biomass, wood products, bioenergy

23 Maximum Forest Resilience Carbon Pools Bioenergy Use Harvested Wood Products Above Ground Live Biomass

24 BAU, BAU+Reforesta.on, LMP, MFR

25 What we learned Forests will play significant role in Climate mi.ga.on/ghg balances under AB32 BAU reacts to disturbance, treats highest priority landscapes with minimal effects Important ques.ons for Region 5: Are R5 veg/fuel strategies correct? Are current Rx s Adequate? Are we trea.ng enough acres? Are we crea4ng healthy and resilient landscapes?

26 More lessons Sustainability of carbon sink dependent upon interac.ons of growth, management and disturbances Projec.ons relied heavily upon the professional judgment and experience of research and forestry/fire/ fuels managers Carbon projec.ons significantly lower without full accoun.ng of carbon pools

27 Lessons Learned Peer Review Comments Friendly fire Incorporated sugges.ons as.meframes and resources allowed Lots of substan.ve ques.ons Task of this workshop! Environmental Community Response Suppor.ve and interested in par.cipa.ng in future design Leadership Response Findings provide plaqorm for communica.on with public interested in pubic resource values

28 Closing Thoughts How to set baseline? How to model future disturbance, esp. with climate change? What is a reasonable range of management scenarios? Implement LMP MFR Resilience Realis.c? Others? Are you responding to contemporary resource management issues? Do you want to treat this analysis as an opportunity for a dialogue with public?

29 Closing Thoughts Baseline Significant challenges defining and modeling baseline Management Footprint Nature of treatments Effect on future growth and resistance to disturbance

30 Closing Thoughts Predic.ng Disturbance Significant Challenges modeling disturbance Basis for Projec.ons? Fire Drought Insects & Disease Relies upon limited research and development of professional consensus Opportunity to engage wide range of interests including the environmental community

31 Data Quality Defining our management footprint is challenging requires careful analysis of data Challenges associated with quan.fying/tracking carbon pools over.me FIA inventory conversion to carbon pools Solid Wood Products and bioenergy Peer reviewers wanted a much more thorough accoun.ng of all carbon pools over.me LCA/Deteriora.on

32 CA Findings and Recommenda.ons Significant cri.cal review Earnest cri.que and construc.ve input from environmental community Serves as a plaqorm for dialog over long term implica.ons of current management ac.vi.es Involve broad forest community in design

33 Closing Thoughts Quick overview of R5 Carbon Capability Analysis Experience Conference is an opportunity to examine historic and projected management ac.vi.es, look ahead, formulate baselines and alterna.ves that will affect resilience of our ecosystems Speak of forestry in contemporary terms The Adventure begins

34 Report Available: