Potential production of bioenergy from forests

Transcription

1 Potential production of bioenergy from forests Søren Larsen, PhD-student Section for Forest, Nature and Biomass Acknowledgements to my co-workers: Niclas Bentsen Inge Stupak Palle Madsen And the projects where they are affiliated Slide 1

2 Potential production Plan for the presentation: What, where and why? How are bioenergy potentials measured/estimated? Status for the present potential production HANPP approach Uncertainties Conclusions Dias 2

3 Forest bioenergy Forests produce one product: Trees/wood But trees are not just trees in statistics terms: sawlogs, roundwood, pulpwood, wood chips, fuelwood, firewood, industrial wood, wood for energy, stumps, bark, short timber, other timber, veener and sawnwood logs, Christmas trees, timber and saw logs, cut whole trees left in the forest, forest residues and grot The list is NOT exhaustive Dias 3

4 The Nordics, Baltics and Europe Selected recent literature reviews Rytter et al. (2014) consider the Nordics, Estonia and Latvia until 2050 Graudal et al. (2013) consider Denmark until 2100 Biomass Energy Europe-project (2010) considers all of Europe (and the world) until 2050 Bentsen and Stupak, (2014) consider global potentials in relation to pellets IEA bioenergy (2015) considers boreal and temperate forests Numerous scientific papers Dias 4

5 Estimating potentials THIS IS A MESS: Potentials: Theoretical, technical, economic, implementation and sustainable Units: m3, joule, tons, tons DM, tons C, Wh, conversion factors Scenarios: High, low, sustainable, enhanced, baseline etc. Time: 2020, 2035, 2050, 2100 Methods: NFI, supply models, demand models, national statistics, NPP estimations, etc. Areas: Forests, gardens, woody bioenergy, hedges, afforestation etc. Assumptions: Climate, population, energy consumption All of the above makes it difficult to compare different studies and adds a lot of uncertainties to estimations Dias 5

6 Orders of magnitude 400 billion trees before trillion after 2015 Theoretical (100 %) Technical (25-35 %) Economical (25-35 %) Dias 6

7 We need energy!!! IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 Dias 7

8 Energy supply declines in the Nordics Renewables, biomass and nuclear are increasing from 2010 to 2050 Dias 8

9 What is the potential production then? Short answer: It depends This is why: Region Northern Europe The Baltics Western Europe Eastern Europe Southern Europe NW Russia Wood ressource potential (PJ) 2010/EU28: 3808 PJ solid biomass for energy 1 (EUROSTAT, 2015) North America South America (2050) 1400 Wood ressource potential in different regions in Europe and the rest of the world in PJ = 10^15 Joule Low figures often a sustainable potential, high figures often a theoretical potential. From: Bentsen and Stupak (2014) who reviewed current literature 1) incl. Recycling, (import export) and straw Dias 9

10 There is plenty of forest biomass in Europe Only harvesting ~40-65 % yearly growth Plenty of opportunities for increasing production Dias 10

11 Biomass potentials: HANPP approach Human appropriation of net primary production developed by Haberl et al. (2007) Approach for forests by IEA-Bioenergy (2015) more publications to come NPP from Heinsch et al. (2003) on FAO forest land. FAO statistics for forest roundwood production (avg. national values ) FAO statistics for bioenergy (avg. national values ) C-based units Simple, transparent approach without units Easy to compare countries Dias 11

12 Biomass potentials: HANPP approach How much of NPP is harvested How much of forestry sector is captured by the bioenergy sector. Dias 12

13 Biomass potentials: HANPP approach Import Large share of NPP is harvested Small fraction is harvested Wood is traded interpret with caution Dias 13

14 Biomass potentials: HANPP approach Large utilization of harvested products = High management intensity Small utilization of harvested products Dias 14

15 Large countries could be more like the Nordics Dias 15

16 Uncertainties Historic lessons Dias 16 Gustav Vasa from 1628

17 Uncertainties - future In the early 1800 s Denmark was a small, poor country We lost Norway (to Sweden) and our entire navy to the Brits Around 3 % forest area, poorly managed Oak forests were planted now they are ready for delivery to the navy Dias 17

18 Uncertainties Historic lessons Dias 18

19 Uncertainties Historic lessons Electricity to cheap to meter was a nuclear promise from the 1950 ies. Perhaps it will be available in the 2050 ies from 4G, solar or fusion. IEA-Bioenergy, (2015) Dias 19

20 Conclusions It is is difficult to estimate and project forest production and potentials There is a large potential for forests to produce more biomass Forest biomass can contribute significantly to the energy supply in the Nordics, Europe and the world. The demand is rising. Forests offer services other than wood products: It is important to take this into account in forest management to improve resistince and resilience Use biomass products wisely: Energy quality Dias 20

21 Dias 21 Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management