!"#$%&' R T mapf = = = = = ==!!! !"#$% ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH

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1 = = = = = 6 = 5!"#$% ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Vol. 6 No. 5 September 2010!" (2010) !"#$%&' R T mapf ==!!! ==!!!!"#$%&'()!"*+, L!"!"#$%&'()* L!"#$%!"#$%&'()!=UPMMMO =!"#$%& 3!"#$%& '(!"#$%&'()!"#$5 7!"!PDSI!"#$%&'(RES!"#$%& RES!"#$ PDSI I=!" #$%&' 47.90%!"#!" 5 7 PDSI!"# J0.41!"#$ 20 20!"#$ 19!"20!"#$%&'!()*+!!!"!"#$%&!"P532 ==!"#A = ====!"#$=EPDSIFPalmer2060!"#!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'(#)*+,-!!"#$%&'()!"#$%&' EJ10 PDSI 10F!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'()*$%+,-./01!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'() x1z!" PDSI!"#$%&'()*+, x2j10z!"#$% PDSI! x2j4z Esper x7z!"#$ 953 PDSI Dai x1z!2.52.5pdsi Wang x8z!"#$%&'()*+,- 500 PDSI x9z!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+, 1842! PDSI Li x10z!"#$%&'()*+!"# 300 PDSI!"#$ PDSI!"#$%&'()*+,-.!!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()*+,-$./0 ====!"#$%&'()*+,-.()!"!"#$%&'()*+,-!"!"#$%&'#()*+, x11j15z!"#$%&!"#$%!!"#$%!"#$%&'!"#$%pinus tabulaeformis!"#$%&!"#$ PDSI!"!"#$%&'()PDSI!"= = !!"#$%!!GYHY !"#$%&'2007FY220200!"#$% ! 1982!"#!"#$%&'()*+,- feng653@163.com!! yuanyuj5502@sina.con 344

2 5!!"#$%&'5 7 PDSI 345 N==!" NKN==!"#$ ====!"#$%&'()*+, 3!"#$%&"'()*+,-./ 3!"#$%&'!"#$!"!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#!"#$%=E 1 1F!"#$%!"68 136! 5 mm 68! 12 mmf!" ====!"#$%&'#()*!"#!"!"# mm Velmex!"#$%&'!( 1=!"#$%&' Table 1 Survey of the sampling sites of tree rings in Mt. Helan COFECHA!"#$%&'()*+ x16z!"#$%& X!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!"#$%&'( Dendro-2003!!"#$%&'()!"#$% 3!"#$%&'()* !"#$%&'()*+,"-./01 3!"#$%&'()*+,- ARSTAN x17z!"#"$%&'()* I!"#$%&'()*+,-./01!"#$%&'( I!"#$%&'!"#STD!RES! ARS 2FRES!!!"#$%&'()*+, n=247f /m 2260~ ~ ~2280 EEN NNW EEN = == 25~ N 25~ N 19~ N == 10555E 10555E 10550E NKO==! ==== Dai x1z! PDSI!"#$% 3845N10615E! F!"#$%&'() E 106E N O=== 38N! PDSI 0 85 km 1!"#! PDSI! Fig. 1 Location of tree-ring sampling sites, metorological stations and the nearest PDSI grid point OKN==!" mapf= ====!"#$%&'()*+ PDSI 7!9!"#$%&'()!"#$%&!"PDSI!"#!"#$%&'())*+!"#$ RES!" 2 RES! PDSI!"#$%&!"#$ α =0.01!"#$%&'RES 2=!"#$%&'()*+,-./0, Table 2 Statistics of tree-ring STD and RES chronologies in Mt. Helan!! /a!"!"#$!"#$%!"#$ [0.85 STD RES

3 = = = = = 346!"#$% 2010! J0.2 α = !"#$%& PDSI Fig. 2 Correlations of RES chronology with PDSI PDSIy RESx!"# y = J x (1) ====!" #$%&R %=E!! 46.90%FF! 46.91=E!"!"#$%&4!"#$%EPS 0.85!!"1759!8!"#$ PDSI!"#$!" 0.72 α =0.01RES!"#$%&"'()*!"RES 56!"#$%&' 57!"#$%&'()* α= PDSI J2 ==============! 0.6 ==================α = J0.2 J0.4 J !"#$%&'()*+,-./012 Fig. 3 Correlations of RES chronology with mean maximum temperature and precipitation OKO==mapf= ====!"!"#$%&!"#!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&! 5 7 PDSI!"#$ 1953 J4 J PDSI!"# $% Fig. 4 Comparison of recorded and estimated PDSI for common period from 1953 to 2005 ==== x18z!"#$%& 0.44!"# 5.93!"#$%&'() 0.66!"#$%0.75!"#$%& 0.01!"#$!"#$%!"#!$%&'()0.01!"!"#$%&'(E1F!"#$!E1F!"#$%&' PDSI 5F PDSI J2!===========10!"# J !" PDSI!"#!" 10!"#$!" Fig. 5 Yearly comparison between unfiltered (thin) and 10-year low-pass filtered (thick) reconstruction PDSI in MayJJuly in Mt. Helan 346

4 5!!"#$%&' 5 7 PDSI 347 P=== ====!"#$%&'()*!+,-./0! "#$%&'()*+,-./!!"#$%&'()*+!!"#$%&'()*+,-./0157!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"!!"#$%&'()*!"!"!"#$%&'(!"#!"#$%&6 7!"#!"#$%&'5 7!"#$ PDSI!"#$%!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+,-. I!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!"# PDSI!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()*+,-.!!"#$%&'()*+,57 PDSI!" ====!" PDSI!J0.41 σ1.32!"pdsi!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123 PDSI 4!"#$%&'(!"#$ %& x1z!"#$%&!"#$%&' ( 5 7 PDSI σ!"#$%&'()*+,-./ 5 7 PDSI J2 2!"!"#$%&'()*+!"#$ 5 7 PDSI!" 10!"#$% !"#$%&'()*#+5 7 PDSI 19!"#$ 20!"#$!!"#$%&'()*+,)! 20 20!"#$ x19z!!"#$%& PDSI! J2!"# 19!" 20!" 2!"!"#$%&'( PDSI 3!"#$%&'()*+ 57 PDSI x9z!"#$ ====!"#$%&'()!"#$5 7PDSI!"#$%&'()*+,%-.!"#PDSI!"#$!"#$!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'(6!"#$%!"#$%!"#$%&'()"%!"#$%&!"#$!"#!"#$!"#$%&'(!!!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%!"#$%&'!!"#$%&'()!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,-./.*0 PDSI!"#$%!"#$%&'()!"#$% 50N 40N 30N 20N 10N EQ 10S 20S 30S 40S 50S 6!" 5 7 PDSI!"#!"#$%&'( 0.05!"# Fig. 6 Spatial correlations between the reconstructed and gridded PDSI in MayJJuly (Shadings are the areas where α=0.05) Q=== 0 30E 60E 90E 120E 150E (1)!"#$%&'!"()*5 7 PDSI!"#I=!"#$%&'(!"# PDSII=!"#$%&'() (2)!" PDSI J0.41!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$20 20!" 19!"20!"#!$%&' 347

5 = = = = = 348!"#$% 2010! [1] Dai Aiguo, Trenberth K E, Qian T. A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870J2002: relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming [J]. Journal of Hydrometeorol, 2004, 5 (6): 1117J 1130 [2] Meko D M, Cook E R, Stahle D W, et al. Spatial patterns of tree-growth anomalies in the United States and southeastern Canada [J]. Journal of Climate, 1993, 6 (9): 1773J1786 [3] Cook E R, Meko D M, Stahle D W, et al. Drought reconstructions for the continental United States [J]. Journal of Climate, 1999, 12 (4): 1145J 1162 [4] Cook E R, Woodhouse C A, Eakin C M, et al. Long-term aridity changes in the western United States [J]. Science, 2004, 306 (5698): 1015J1018 [5] Pohl K A, Hadley K S, Arabas K B. A 545-year drought reconstruction for central Oregon [J]. Physical Geography, 2002, 23: 302J320 [6] Stahle D W. Long-term aridity changes in the western United States [J]. Science, 2004, 306: 1015J1018 [7] Esper J, Frank D C, Bntgen U, et al. Long-term drought severity variations in Morocco [J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2007, L17702, doi: /2007gl [8] Wang Xiaochun, Zhang Qibing, Ma Keping, et al. A tree-ring record of 500-year dry-wet changes in northern Tibet, China [J]. The Holocene, 2008, 18 (4): 579J588 [9],,,.!"#$% 1842!"!"#$%& PDSI = [J].!, 2007, 52 (14): 1694J1699 [10] Li Jinbao, Gou Xiaohua, Cook E R, et al. Tree-ring based drought reconstruction for the central Tien Shan area in Northwest China [J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33, L07715, doi: / 2006GL [11],,,.!"#$%&'()*+, 1890!"E6 8 F [J].!W D, 2002, 32 (8): 667J 674 [12],, Shishov V,.!"#$%&'( 1726!" 5 7! [J].!, 2004, 49 (3): 256J269 [13],,,.!"#$%&'()*+, !"#$ [J].!", 2005, 25 (5): 540J544 [14] Liu Yu, Cai Qiufang, Shi Jiangfeng, et al. Seasonal precipitation in the south-central Helan Mountain region, China, reconstructed from treering width for the past 224 years [J]. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2005, 35 (10): 2403J24l2 [15],.!"#$ 1776!"#$%&'()[J].!, 2006, 61 (9): 930J936 [16] Holmes R L. Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement [J]. Tree-Ring Bulletin, 1983, 43: 69J78 [17] Cook E R. A time series analysis approach to tree-ring standardization [D]. Tucson: The University of Arizona, 1985: 20J50 [18],,,.!"#$%&'() [M]. :!", 2000: 1J158 [19],,,.!"#$%&'( 20 20!"#$%& [J].!"#, 2004, 14 (4): 469J474 Long-Term Drought Severity Variations Recorded in Tree Rings in the Northern Helan Mountains Chen Feng, Yuan Yujiang, Wei Wenshou, Yu Shulong, Li Yang, Zhang Ruibo, Fan Zi ang, Zhang Tongwen, Shang Huaming (Institute of Desert and Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration/ Key Laboratory of the Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration/ Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Ecology of the Xinjiang Uigur Autonomous Region, U ru mqi , China) Abstract: A drought index series reconstruction for north-central China was presented based on tree-ring-width chronologies developed from three sites of Pinus tabulaeformis in the northern Helan Mountains. The drought index reconstruction, spanning 1759J2005, was developed by calibrating the tree-ring-width chronologies with the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), which describes the regional moisture condition properly. The reconstructed PDSI in MayJJuly (PDSI 5J7 ) was verified with independent data, and accounted for 47.90% of the actual PDSI 5J7 variance during their common period (1953J2005). The mean of PDSI 5J7 over 1759J2005 was estimated at J0.41. The full reconstruction indicates that the regional drought variability was relatively stable during the nineteenth century, but became more variable and persistent during the twentieth century. The drought epoch in the late 1920s was the severest one and the 1870s and 1940s were two wetter decades in our reconstruction. Key words: Mt. Helan; tree-ring width; PDSI reconstruction 348